May Day – MLB 5/1/2019

Baseball in April is a beautiful thing. Betting baseball in April can be like a crapshoot when you're relying on projections and small data sets. May begins peak MLB handicapping season for me, so making it out of April right on the edge of the profit line (-1.16 units) is…

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Strong Armed – MLB 4/30/2019

Tonight's action ushers out a tumultuous month of April with a full slate of games. I took one shot on Monday; a road dog play on the Oakland A's. The A's knocked Rodriguez around well in the 2nd, but Boston took advantage of a muffed inning-ending double play in the…

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One and Done – MLB 4/29/2019

Monday means back to the grind at the office and a light MLB card to handicap. Week 4 finished strong with a nice 4-day mini-streak that gained 7.33 units back to the bankroll on a 11-5 record. Team data is getting stronger and reading most of the starting pitchers is…

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Press Your Luck – MLB 4/28/2019

Saturday's plays involved a four-pack of home teams headlined by the Toronto Blue Jays. They've owned the A's so far this season, notching their 5th win against Oakland in as many games. All the buzz has been around Vlad Jr. this weekend but he was essentially a non-factor in their…

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Hung Over – MLB 4/27/2019

The Nationals did it. They lost to the Padres as -200 favorites in their first game after finishing a series in Colorado. Even with a day of rest, the Rocky Mountain Hangover claims its 4th victim in as many situations. There wasn't much to this theory in 2018 (teams went…

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Evolving Identities – MLB 4/26/2019

It's amazing to think that the MLB season is still young despite being in its 4th full week. Teams are starting to develop their identities, some of which we already knew about while others have been a bit of a surprise. For the most part, I have shed my pre-season…

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Chop It Up – MLB 4/25/2019

After the "gut punch" Monday that saw a Pittsburgh collapse and an Angels letdown in 14, the past couple days have each been 2-2 chops. The major benefit of playing plus-money wagers is that these chop days still add a few bucks to the accounts. Nothing major to speak of,…

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The Rocky Mountain Hangover? – MLB 4/24/2019

I mentioned a couple days back me reading and hearing about a situational handicapping angle involving teams returning from a series at Coors Field in Denver. This was of particular interest to me because I had booked a play on Philadelphia at the Mets for that evening. The Phillies made…

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Low Blow – 4/23/2019

0-3 is a bad day, but yesterday's 0-3 was a downright low blow. The -3.02 units is not that big of a hit to the bankroll or a major change to the pace I need to meet my 2019 season goal (see yesterday's article about pace). However, it can be…

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Keeping Pace – MLB 4/22/2019

Easter Sunday's 1-4 result was disappointing to say the least. The extra-innings loss by the Rays was the difference-maker in regard to maintaining a solid bounce back week. Unfortunately, the day's results made the week a slight loss of 0.45 units and the season just shy of -6 units. Before…

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All Clear – MLB 4/21/2019

After a couple days of wet weather at several ballparks, it looks like Mother Nature is going to let the boys play ball on Easter Sunday. Yesterday's 4 wagers were chopped 2-2 but a bit of aggressiveness payed off with the Reds play, yielding 0.76 units on the day. Pending…

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Up In Smoke – MLB 4/20/2019

Friday's action started with a dog bet that was blown away by the Wrigley gusts, but finished strong with a solid Mariners road win. In between, Wainwright fell behind quickly to the Mets, the Yankees got to the Royals' pen, and the Pirates jumped out with 4 in the 1st…

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Fade the Fade – MLB 4/19/2019

Yesterday, my guys on the BetCrushers team said they don't subscribe to the "this game's a lock" mentality but that we would all be disappointed if the 2 tickets didn't cash. Well, they didn't cash. So consider me very disappointed. An 0-2 night shaved 2.1 units off the bankroll and…

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Top 5 Online Sportsbooks

If you’re not a resident of a state that allows sports betting or near a sportsbook but still want to consistently wager, you’re probably going to need to find an online book.  As of late 2018, online sports betting has increased nearly 30% in the previous six years. It’s estimated…

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Bullpen Shenanigans – MLB 4/18/2019

Wednesday's "lucky 7" wagers were an overall positive at 5-2 with +3.21 units coming back to the bankroll. I had high expectations for the day, tempered with the underlying concern that about 10% of my bankroll was in play. A 3-0 start eased much of that concern and the evening…

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Lucky 7 – MLB 4/17/2019

It should have been an omen when Steven Matz got lit up for 8 runs without getting an out versus the Phillies last night. That was the big matchup I liked best out of my 4 plays that went 1-3 for a -1.65 unit net. No momentum from Monday's good…

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Road Warriors – MLB 4/16/2019

Monday was a good start to this week. Coming off a brutal week, it was very important to get some good reads and even better results. 2-1 on short dogs got the job done, adding 1.16 units back to the bankroll and shaving the season loss to -6.34 units. The…

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Sure Felt Like a Win – MLB 4/15/2019

It has come to this. A 2-2 push on Sunday neither harms nor fouls the bankroll, but was oddly a huge relief considering it could have easily been an 0-4 day. The 0-fer would have been a hell of a lot more appropriate for my current run, BTW. Highlights: Jean…

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Back for More – MLB 4/14/2019

We cracked a six pack of plays Saturday and I've gotta tell you, somebody must have shaken those cans up really good. The Yankees waited until the 7th inning to break a scoreless deadlock and eventually cover the +105 run line. But the second slug of games saw a stellar…

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Big Saturday – MLB 4/13/2019

Yesterday's 5 plays started with a dud and ended on the west coast with 3 very disappointing outcomes. The 1-4 result cost -2.65 units and was the most costly day of the young season. In fact, this week has been a gut punch on the run line, shedding 8.1 units…

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Bark and Bite – MLB 4/12/2019

Yesterday presented a couple live dogs to jump on, both of which came through. There had been a drought of underdogs that looked reasonable in my handicapping opinion until yesterday, but the integration of early-season metrics help to isolate these opportunities versus relying purely on projections. Today's slate should present…

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Staying Home – MLB 4/11/2019

Yesterday's four pack of plays went a disappointing 1-3 for a loss of 2 units.  Trevor Bauer was not sharp against the Tigers in the first play of the day. Boyd got a lot of weak contact from the Tribe and sealed the deal rather easily. Tampa was chomping at…

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Slump Buster – MLB 4/10/2019

Tuesday was a day where I took shots on four aces via the run line. Early in the season I look for solid pitchers at home whose teams have an offensive advantage. My guys yesterday were Sale, deGrom, Castillo, and Greinke. None of those were reasonable money line players due…

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Arms Race – MLB 4/9/2019

A ride with the Phillies on the run line for their 3rd straight game results in another loss with that squad. Spoiler alert: I'm not on Philly this evening. That being said, Monday was a one-play day that knocks us back to -0.63 units on the season. Bouncing around the…

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The Other Side of the Coin – MLB 4/7/2019

On a couple occasions during this young season I've noted the downside protection that run line plays offer when compared to laying -120 or greater on favorites. Forgoing the juice and coughing up a flat unit bet when the team loses the game can add incremental value in the form…

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An Afternoon of Action – MLB 4/7/2019

Saturday's 1-3 run line result was less than great, skimming 1.55 units from the season total that now sits at -0.93 units. Cardinals, Phillies, and Angels were poised to return midrange plus-money payouts but only LA got the money. All of the run line losses were straight up losses, so…

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Under the Radar – MLB 4/6/2019

Tonight's Final Four action is sure to capture the attention of many bettors, and rightly so. As you'd expect, I've got MLB in my crosshairs. Friday's 2-1 on run line plays got me back in the black for the season, yielding +1.65 units for a +0.62-unit advantage since Opening Day.…

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Staying Home – MLB 4/5/2019

Some things don't go according to plan. Yesterday's 1-3 (-1.95 units) result was a good example, bringing the season net down to -1.03 units. Yet again, the Oakland A's were a bright spot on my betting card. A sloppy start for the A's transitioned over to the Sox, who gave…

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Adapting to the First Week – MLB 4/4/2019

Opening 7-Day Recap: Wednesday afternoon run line plays went 0-2 for a loss of 2.00 units. Season results are 9-11 for +0.92 units.  A one-week gain just shy of +1 unit is OK considering projections are being adjusted and wagers are conservative.  The big drag on profits was the loose…

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Afternoon Ball – MLB 4/3/2019

Blake Snell assumed his Cy Young-winning form last night, racking up 13 Ks in 7 innings. Freeland held his own for the Rockies by striking out 10 but could not stay on the mound as long due to a 35-pitch 1st inning. The Rays offense did just enough to comfortably…

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Two For Tuesday – MLB 4/2/2019

Monday started with a miss on the Pirates run line. Archer scattered 2 hits over 5 innings while picking up 8 Ks, but the Pirates bullpen looked like they were the ones with considerably less rest and gave it up. The Mets pulled out a 9th inning payback victory for…

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A Case of the Mondays – MLB 4/1/2019

The first weekend of baseball yielded 10 betting opportunities; 5 on Saturday, 5 on Sunday. Despite a massive breach of my MLB wagering principles with the Yankees -185 run line, good hits on 4 other RLs squeezed out a +1.03 unit profit over those 10 games. Most importantly, there was…

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Rain, Rain, Go Away – MLB 3/31/2019

On a day that saw our Cincinnati Reds play get rained out, we experienced highs and lows. The lowest low was my lapse in judgement to grab the Yankees -185 on the run line. Should be able to smash the Orioles, right? The only redeeming factor is that we weren't…

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Back to Day Ball – MLB

The first weekend of MLB action brings back day baseball and a full 15-game schedule to dig into. Yesterday, I was on the wrong end of an absolutely spectacular hitting display by Paul Goldschmidt to lift the Cardinals over the Brewers. Matt Harvey had only one blemish against Oakland, a…

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The Day After – 3/29/2019

Opening Day did not disappoint me and the BetCrushers Team (who did better than my solo pick with a couple add-on winners). Berrios was absolutely dominant, which was a must for the Twins to get a +105 W over an on-point Kluber in front of a depleted Tribe lineup. When…

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Opening Day 2019!!!

And with that, the excitement of a new MLB season fades into number-crunching. 15 games on Thursday's slate, 15 opportunities to start on the right foot. I model games to determine a probable score based on team and starting pitcher projections (and actual stats once we get a body of…

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The MLB Season Handicapping Grind

When spring comes into view, our focus splits between increasingly heated NCAA basketball action and the prospects of a profitable new MLB season. Spring training gives us insight into each team's season outlook while building excitement for over 2,400 games and even more wagering opportunities. Wait, over 2,400 games?!? This…

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