Yesterday’s four pack of plays went a disappointing 1-3 for a loss of 2 units. Trevor Bauer was not sharp against the Tigers in the first play of the day. Boyd got a lot of weak contact from the Tribe and sealed the deal rather easily. Tampa was chomping at the bit after a long rain delay and jumped all over Reynaldo Lopez to get a rocking chair 9-1 win. That +100 RL win evened out the Cleveland RL loss.
Evening action started with Cincinnati, who had plenty of chances to strike early but their bats were very ineffective until the 8th when they popped a couple solo shots. So another run line loss in a tight one. Flaherty exhibited very good control for the Cards in their smooth 7-2 win over the Dodgers. I was not sold on Flaherty and thought the Dodgers could capitalize on his mistakes. St. Louis is hitting a nice stride right now, who knows how long it lasts?
To say that the last 5 days haven’t been frustrating would be far from the truth. Most of is due to the season and a small streak like this stands out more prominently. Sides have been profitable in each of the last 4 seasons, so being down less than 5 bets is nothing to be alarmed about. At this point, my bets are only 1% of my bankroll and the damage is minimal.
Losing is losing, though. Time to get some wins with the home teams…
LA Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
The Dodgers wrap up a 4-game set under the Arch with an afternoon showdown between young starter Walker Buehler and Michael Wacha. Buehler has a lot of upside in the MLB, showing what he is capable of in his first season as a starter in 2018. He’s been limiting runs this year, though not getting the strikeouts many expect. Buehler had a rough opener with Arizona then went to Colorado and only lasted 5 innings. The Dodgers are in a bit of an offensive slump since they arrived in St. Louis; a slump that I expected them to break out of last night. Let’s see if they can wait until they leave town to get the bats fired back up.
Wacha has done well in his two starts, getting into the 6th inning in both against a pair of good-hitting clubs. His curve can be a killer when he’s sharp but he absolutely must keep the walks to a minimum. As I felt with Flaherty last night, giving LA free base runners can be costly. This should be Wacha’s key to going a full 6 and keeping the Cardinals in the game. Behind good pitching, the Redbirds’ offense has been consistent and has a good chance of getting it done with 4-5 runs on the board. They’ve won their last 4 and appear to be in the groove of playing solid baseball. After being against them last night, I’m flipping over to the home dog and riding their good play.
WAGER: Cardinals +128
NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Steven Matz starts the Mets’ series against NL East co-leader Atlanta. He’s only given up 1 earned run in his 2 starts, but has only gone 5 innings in each. Both starts were no decisions despite strong work. His slider can keep hitters from making good contact though his lack of depth into the game is less than ideal. The Mets bullpen only had to work 2 innings last night, so it may not be a huge factor in this game. New York has been putting a lot of runs on the board (6+ in 8 of their last 9) and is 5-1 on the road this season.
Kevin Gausman is a notorious innings eater who can be a bullpen’s best friend. Atlanta comes back from a successful trip in Colorado that saw yesterday’s game get snowed out. Despite the travel, this team should benefit from an extra day of rest and are coming home to SunTrust Park where they are 5-1 so far this season. Gausman’s start gets bumped from yesterday to tonight and I cannot tell you whether this is a plus or minus for him. Each situation and each pitcher reacts differently to changes like this, so I’ll play it as a wash. He can frustrate batters if his splitter is on point, otherwise he is a middle-of-the-road guy that goes deep into games. I give the bullpen edge to Atlanta, as well as a positive mark for their consistent hitting.
WAGER: Braves RL +160
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Jon Gray takes the mound in an ugly NL West game against Jeff Samardzija. Gray is probably licking his chops with anticipation for a bunch of strikeouts against the weak Giants lineup. There’s not much to this one: both teams have struggled this year and are in the division cellar. I can’t give one pitcher an edge over the other but I do like the Giants pen significantly more than Colorado’s. Even if you look at both teams evenly, the payout is with the home team. Going to grab a number here and take the dog.
