After the “gut punch” Monday that saw a Pittsburgh collapse and an Angels letdown in 14, the past couple days have each been 2-2 chops. The major benefit of playing plus-money wagers is that these chop days still add a few bucks to the accounts. Nothing major to speak of, but enough to tread water.
Ironically, the 2 wins Wednesday were on sides that burnt me on Monday: the Diamondbacks and the Yankees. These clubs have built some good momentum and are playing well on the road. Despite the streaks they are on, you are still seeing decent prices on them again today considering the quality of pitchers taking the mound. More on that later.
The Red Sox stiffened up behind Eduardo Rodriguez, who found a groove last night and stymied an already-weak Tigers offense. This was a crucial win for a Boston club that needed to regain its upward momentum after being swept in a double header the day before. While I think the -185 price for Porcello tonight is untouchable, it is difficult to back the Tigers again in this spot.
My “value” dog last night was the Cincinnati Reds, who were outlasted by the Braves 3-1. This game was deadlocked for the longest time due to the Braves inability to get their baserunners across home plate. Tanner Roark escaped multiple jams and only gave up 1 run in 5 innings of work, as reflected in the metrics (93% LOB, 5.43 xFIP). At some point his “luck” will run out and I will look for a good fade spot.
The player that needs to be spotlighted in this game is the Atlanta’s starter, 21-year old Mike Soroka. I felt that he was an unknown quantity but after watching his entire performance I will be keeping an eye on this kid and his starts moving forward. He shook off a 1st inning jam and never looked back. His 7 Ks and 1 run over 5.2 innings of work was very impressive given that he never lost his composure. Having veteran Brian McCann behind the plate was likely a big part of it, but this kid was very focused and even had some quality at bats. Soroka implemented McCann’s gameplan well with great command of his fastballs (as noted yesterday) and ideal locations against particular hitters. The cherry on the top was him breaking out a changeup in his third time through the order that had took the Reds by surprise. Tip of the cap to this kid and the veteran behind the plate.
Very short slate today with only a couple games yet to be posted this morning. These three are of particular interest:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
The Diamondbacks are running well right now, ripping off 8 of their last 10 including a 7-2 road record in this stretch. This is the last game of their 10-game road trip and they get behind veteran ace Zack Greinke. Since a rough opener at the Dodgers, he has settled in as a solid long-start pitcher going at least 6 innings and giving up no more than 3 runs in those 4 starts. His weakness continues to be giving up the long ball but he faces a Pirates team that is #28 in the majors for home runs. Despite his 4.60 ERA, he has a 3.42 xFIP and continues to keep hits and walks down (1.13 WHIP).
Arizona’s hitters will be tested today as Jameson Taillon takes the mound. He’s only given up more than 1 run in 2 of his starts this season (though the team surrendered 6 unearned in his short 2-inning outing against the Cubs). This should be a strength v. strength matchup as this great pitcher faces off against an Arizona offense that is hit-or-miss. When they’re on, they put up a lot of runs – like last night. The Pirates are on a 1-4 skid at PNC Park, mainly due to their struggles pushing runs across the plate.
VALUE: Diamondbacks +114 on an 8-2 run
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
The Braves shift gears from young up-and-comer Mike Soroka to an established Julio Teheran. You have to acknowledge the home-road splits on Teheran that show his ineffectiveness on the road so far in 2019. While he’s not particularly known for being “splittish”, this year he has given up 14 runs in 14.2 innings pitched in 3 road starts. He’s only given up 2 runs in 11 innings pitched at home. We know how good this Braves lineup is. They’re stacked with veteran and young hitters that are a huge challenge to opposing pitchers.
Today’s opposing pitcher is Luis Castillo, a guy that I cannot get enough of. He will have his hands full with the Braves but confidence is not misplaced in this righty. His 52.5% ground ball rate is crucial against a good-hitting lineup for inducing double plays and limiting damage in case multiple runners get on in an inning. His lowest strikeout game was 7 when he faced a powerful Dodgers team. I have to be very careful when backing Castillo to ensure that I’m not getting ahead of myself. The price may be good on a quality dog but the Reds are in a good position when you consider both starters.
PLAY THE ACE: -138 is arguably steep, +145 on the RL is aggressive
NY Yankees @ LA Angels
A 4-game set full of drama wraps up in LA tonight. The Yankees have won their last 6 despite calling upon an unsuspecting cast of characters to get it done. Their 3 wins against the Angels have been by a slim 4-run margin that includes a 14-inning win (of which I was on the other side, but fortunately was not awake for). Tanaka looks to continue a good season in which he’s given up more than 1 run in only 1 of his starts. His 53.8% ground ball rate bodes well against the Angels’ lineup and his other advanced metrics support what we’ve seen on the field to date.
Trevor Cahill has given up 8 homers this season, 5 of which have been in the last 2 games alone. A scrappy Yankees lineup can take advantage of his 38% ground ball rate to extend their run and that of the Angels: 1-9 in their last 10, including 1-6 at home in this stretch. Either streak can easily be broken tonight but there is a significant disparity between these two starters. Both bullpens can be very effective so the starters will likely make the difference.
