A pair of losses to end week 5 is not what I was looking for, though it was not totally unexpected. Taking a shot on Toronto went about as well as the long shot play on the White Sox Saturday night: el busto! The Milwaukee run line loss was disappointing because the cover was blown by a solo shot in the 7th against a very sharp Zach Davies, but again, that is the downside to that wager. The only redeeming factor in losing those games is that we’re dealing with plus-money wagers that are easier to dig out of.
Moving on to the positives: week 5 wrapped up with an 8-6 record and added 2.92 units back to the bankroll. It’s not much to speak of, but the season-to-date net is +0.26 units after a rough couple-week stretch in April. Looking at my expected season-long median pace of +1.25 units/week (about +31 units for the season), I now need to average +1.55 units/week to achieve that goal. Very doable.
With 5 weeks in the books, I’ve begun to blend recent team data with season-long statistics. This enables me to better consider current form in a team profile that deals with 30+ games. Over the last couple years, I’ve settled on a 2/3 – 1/3 merge of these data sets to deal with the issue of overweighting current form. If there is a drastic variation between the two time periods, it will bear itself out in the blended metric. My assessment of starting pitching is a mix of science (data) and art (manipulation), which carries its own risk-reward profile.
OK, enough about data and pace. Week 6 starts off with a nice 12-game slate today. Time to get this week and the month of May rolling with another pair of plays…
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
One of today’s key matchups pits seasoned veteran ace Max Scherzer against a formidable Brewers offense. Let’s face it, if Scherzer had a different name next to his statistics we’d say the guy was having a great season…but it hasn’t been quite as excellent as Max would expect from himself. Though his K rate is above 12.0/9 innings and he’s typically been able to go deep in the game, it has not been impossible to get runs off of him. A .377 BABIP tells me he’s getting punished for not being super sharp with his stuff. The scary thing is we know Scherzer is capable of tossing a gem at any time, which is why you see the Nationals as road favorites this evening.
Jhoulys Chacin is nowhere near Scherzer’s level; you could sum him up as being situationally decent. In other situations, he’s been bad. He’s started 2 home games since the opener and has surrendered only 2 runs in outings against the Dodgers and Rockies. The downside is that he issued 3 walks in each. Normally I would see this pitching mismatch and shy away from the inferior starter, but the larger context says otherwise.
When you dig into these teams you see big differences. The Nationals have lost a considerable amount of power in their lineup, which is not helped by injuries to Rendon, Zimmerman, and Soto. They’ve gone 3-7 in their last 10 games…the opposite of the Brewers who are 7-3 and 5-2 at home during this 10-game period. Lorenzo Cain got beat up yesterday (ran into the outfield wall and was then hit in the hand by a pitch) and their bullpen hasn’t been nearly as sharp recently. So while I see value in the home dog, I can easily respect the opinion to the contrary.
Could be Frustrating: Brewers +107
NY Mets @ San Diego Padres
There could be a top notch pitchers’ duel at Petco Park tonight. Jacob deGrom squares off against budding ace Chris Paddack, who is 7 years his junior (believe it or not, deGrom is 30 years old now). deGrom has been a coin-flip guy this season; in other words, he’s been lights out in 3 starts and has gotten thumped in the other 3. He needs to be the stopper for the Mets, who were just swept in Milwaukee and are on a 1-4 skid. They are losing their offensive consistency and power so Jacob can’t count on a lot of run support to get it done.
Chris Paddack has been quite good in his rookie season and is progressing as a pitcher. He’s been going deeper into games as the season has gone on though his 1.91 ERA isn’t necessarily supported by a 3.90 xFIP. A 39% ground ball rate is less than ideal, but the Mets may not be the right team at the right time to capitalize on this weakness. The Padres just finished a tight series against the Dodgers in which they were very competitive. Their hitting consistency is not great but the team is having a power surge lately. With Paddack on the mound, this is San Diego’s game to win.
