The Nationals did it. They lost to the Padres as -200 favorites in their first game after finishing a series in Colorado. Even with a day of rest, the Rocky Mountain Hangover claims its 4th victim in as many situations. There wasn’t much to this theory in 2018 (teams went 12-11), but it’s showing some sway in a limited sample this year. Granted, Scherzer isn’t who we expect him to be so far in 2019 but last night was a large upset regardless.
Friday night also brought to light one of the game’s most-anticipated young players, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made his major league debut in Toronto. He went 0-3 with a couple long fly balls until he ripped a double down the line to lead off the bottom of the 9th. That hit proved to be the difference as a 2-2 tie was broken with a walk-off homer. I must give credit to Mike Fiers for keeping things under control against a light-hitting Blue Jays club that was fueled by the Vlad Jr. excitement. Stroman was dominant but did not get the win due to the Biagini choke job.
The Diamondbacks kept their hot hand after returning home to face the Cubs. They jumped on Hendricks early and never relinquished the lead. On the other hand, the Mariners played a tight game against the Rangers who are rarely out of the game because of their powerful offense. Seattle got the extra-innings win, but I did not get the run line cover.
A 2-1 evening cranks out another unit of profit, moving back towards my season-long pace. Saturday presents another full slate of games to work from…
Oakland A’s @ Toronto Blue Jays
Let’s run it back. This time, the Jays aren’t laying the number and are actually short dogs at home. Both Anderson and Sanchez are back in the rotation from small injuries, Aaron’s being one of his typical finger injuries. These starters have very similar pitcher profiles, as do the bullpen units. The A’s have the better offense but you have to take a step back and see how these teams have played each other this season.
Oakland and Toronto have squared off 4 times in this young season, with Toronto winning all 4. Not only have they won all of the matchups so far, they have outscored them 24-8. All of the team metric similarities have been trumped by the outcomes on the diamond, and I have to give the edge to the home team that has owned their opponent. Plus, the wild card seems to be the excitement with the club and the home crowd at the Rogers Centre for Vlad Jr.’s arrival. Let’s see what he’s got after the hype of game 1 is behind him.
Play the Matchup: Blue Jays +105
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona kept it rolling last night with their 5th straight win that kept an 8-2 run in their last 10 alive. The Cubs throw Yu Darvish out there to stop the hot D-backs. He’s been a HR-prone 5-inning guy and faces a lineup that has scored 5+ runs in 4 of their last 5 games. The Cubs flashed a pair of 7-run outputs at home against the Dodgers but have been otherwise mediocre in the last week.
To be honest, Zack Godley is a tough guy to put your money behind. He can give up big innings despite not being prone to coughing up home runs. Like his counterpart, his ERA is higher than his xFIP so there is some room to regress. The Cubs will be a tough lineup to do so against but the D-backs offense has his back. Both offenses are good and I give the bullpen edge to Arizona. In fact, they were able to let Andriese eat 3 innings last night so the bulk of their relievers are available to help get a 6th straight win.
Ride the Hot Hand: Diamondbacks +110
Pittsburgh Pirates @ LA Dodgers
Joe Musgrove started the season very well but has stumbled a bit in his last 2 outings. He’s only given up 1 home run, which will be tested tonight against the power-hitting Dodgers. He has a 44.6% ground ball rate and I could see his backslide continue in LA. His stellar 1.59 ERA contradicts a decent 3.76 xFIP.
O.G. Clayton Kershaw is not the pitcher he once was, though he has started his delayed 2019 campaign with a pair of good outings. He’s gone 13 innings with a very good strikeout rate and a 61.3% ground ball rate that matches up well against a weak Pirates lineup. He will need to have better control, as he gave up 4 walks in his last start. LA is 10-4 at home, including 3-0 at Dodger Stadium in their last 10 games. I can’t lay the -200 so the run line is in play.
Back the Power: Dodgers RL +105
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
The Philly offense has generally been inconsistent and the Marlins have been a thorn in their side already this season. I expect a good bounce back effort from Arrieta against the weak Miami lineup, but will the Phils’ bats support him? Richards’ true form appears to be shining through lately and the Phillies need to take advantage of his low 34.7% ground ball rate. He can strike guys out, so frustration may outweigh their potential. I’ll get behind Jake but not at -170.
