Monday means back to the grind at the office and a light MLB card to handicap. Week 4 finished strong with a nice 4-day mini-streak that gained 7.33 units back to the bankroll on a 11-5 record. Team data is getting stronger and reading most of the starting pitchers is becoming a little sharper due to a more robust track record of about 5 starts for many of them.
The ebbs and flows of the MLB season are real. For me, week 2 ebbed and week 4 flowed. Nothing to get too excited for, though a light day is a bit of relief in many ways. After scouring the slate, it looks like my inconsequential run will come down to one game this evening. There’s no need to push the issue despite how things have been going lately…stretching for action rarely works out in the long run.
Oakland A’s @ Boston Red Sox
Oakland rolls into Boston after a tough extra-innings loss in Toronto that resulted in a series sweep this past weekend. Prior to being swept, they swept the Texas Rangers at home. Starter Frankie Montas has made his mark this season as a 6-inning, 2-to-3-run guy. He has a good K-rate and is generally a ground ball pitcher with a 57.8% rate. The A’s have been considerably less successful on the road, though the Red Sox have not been stellar at Fenway to date.
Eduardo Rodriguez is showing improvement in his last 3 starts from a rocky start to the 2019 season. This included a beating in Oakland on 4/4. His strikeout rate is impressive but he can struggle with walks from time to time. Don’t be fooled by Eduardo’s 5.88 ERA; he has a 4.29 xFIP and appears to have shaken off the worst of the season to date.
You can’t completely throw out certain series when profiling a team, but Oakland has 6 losses in 6 games vs. Toronto. 9 of their 16 losses have come to Toronto and Houston, and the A’s have shown resiliency in rattling off small winning streaks after losing streaks. I give a slight edge to Montas vs. Rodriguez, as well as the Oakland bullpen and their lineup power over Boston’s. Despite the Fenway advantage, I believe the dog is quite live tonight.
