Monday was a good start to this week. Coming off a brutal week, it was very important to get some good reads and even better results. 2-1 on short dogs got the job done, adding 1.16 units back to the bankroll and shaving the season loss to -6.34 units. The…
It has come to this. A 2-2 push on Sunday neither harms nor fouls the bankroll, but was oddly a huge relief considering it could have easily been an 0-4 day. The 0-fer would have been a hell of a lot more appropriate for my current run, BTW. Highlights: Jean…
We cracked a six pack of plays Saturday and I've gotta tell you, somebody must have shaken those cans up really good. The Yankees waited until the 7th inning to break a scoreless deadlock and eventually cover the +105 run line. But the second slug of games saw a stellar…
Yesterday's 5 plays started with a dud and ended on the west coast with 3 very disappointing outcomes. The 1-4 result cost -2.65 units and was the most costly day of the young season. In fact, this week has been a gut punch on the run line, shedding 8.1 units…
Yesterday presented a couple live dogs to jump on, both of which came through. There had been a drought of underdogs that looked reasonable in my handicapping opinion until yesterday, but the integration of early-season metrics help to isolate these opportunities versus relying purely on projections. Today's slate should present…
Yesterday's four pack of plays went a disappointing 1-3 for a loss of 2 units. Trevor Bauer was not sharp against the Tigers in the first play of the day. Boyd got a lot of weak contact from the Tribe and sealed the deal rather easily. Tampa was chomping at…
Tuesday was a day where I took shots on four aces via the run line. Early in the season I look for solid pitchers at home whose teams have an offensive advantage. My guys yesterday were Sale, deGrom, Castillo, and Greinke. None of those were reasonable money line players due…
A ride with the Phillies on the run line for their 3rd straight game results in another loss with that squad. Spoiler alert: I'm not on Philly this evening. That being said, Monday was a one-play day that knocks us back to -0.63 units on the season. Bouncing around the…
On a couple occasions during this young season I've noted the downside protection that run line plays offer when compared to laying -120 or greater on favorites. Forgoing the juice and coughing up a flat unit bet when the team loses the game can add incremental value in the form…
Saturday's 1-3 run line result was less than great, skimming 1.55 units from the season total that now sits at -0.93 units. Cardinals, Phillies, and Angels were poised to return midrange plus-money payouts but only LA got the money. All of the run line losses were straight up losses, so…
Tonight's Final Four action is sure to capture the attention of many bettors, and rightly so. As you'd expect, I've got MLB in my crosshairs. Friday's 2-1 on run line plays got me back in the black for the season, yielding +1.65 units for a +0.62-unit advantage since Opening Day.…
Some things don't go according to plan. Yesterday's 1-3 (-1.95 units) result was a good example, bringing the season net down to -1.03 units. Yet again, the Oakland A's were a bright spot on my betting card. A sloppy start for the A's transitioned over to the Sox, who gave…
Opening 7-Day Recap: Wednesday afternoon run line plays went 0-2 for a loss of 2.00 units. Season results are 9-11 for +0.92 units. A one-week gain just shy of +1 unit is OK considering projections are being adjusted and wagers are conservative. The big drag on profits was the loose…
Blake Snell assumed his Cy Young-winning form last night, racking up 13 Ks in 7 innings. Freeland held his own for the Rockies by striking out 10 but could not stay on the mound as long due to a 35-pitch 1st inning. The Rays offense did just enough to comfortably…
Monday started with a miss on the Pirates run line. Archer scattered 2 hits over 5 innings while picking up 8 Ks, but the Pirates bullpen looked like they were the ones with considerably less rest and gave it up. The Mets pulled out a 9th inning payback victory for…
The first weekend of baseball yielded 10 betting opportunities; 5 on Saturday, 5 on Sunday. Despite a massive breach of my MLB wagering principles with the Yankees -185 run line, good hits on 4 other RLs squeezed out a +1.03 unit profit over those 10 games. Most importantly, there was…
On a day that saw our Cincinnati Reds play get rained out, we experienced highs and lows. The lowest low was my lapse in judgement to grab the Yankees -185 on the run line. Should be able to smash the Orioles, right? The only redeeming factor is that we weren't…
The first weekend of MLB action brings back day baseball and a full 15-game schedule to dig into. Yesterday, I was on the wrong end of an absolutely spectacular hitting display by Paul Goldschmidt to lift the Cardinals over the Brewers. Matt Harvey had only one blemish against Oakland, a…
Opening Day did not disappoint me and the BetCrushers Team (who did better than my solo pick with a couple add-on winners). Berrios was absolutely dominant, which was a must for the Twins to get a +105 W over an on-point Kluber in front of a depleted Tribe lineup. When…
And with that, the excitement of a new MLB season fades into number-crunching. 15 games on Thursday's slate, 15 opportunities to start on the right foot. I model games to determine a probable score based on team and starting pitcher projections (and actual stats once we get a body of…