ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs -165
Los Angeles Chargers +340
Denver Broncos +550
Las Vegas Raiders +1200
Entering the 2022 NFL season the AFC West was largely heralded as one of the toughest divisions we were ever going to see. That didn’t necessarily pan out as the Broncos and Raiders struggled, and the Chargers battled through injuries and self-inflected wounds. What did happen however, is the Kansas City Chiefs returning to, and winning another Super Bowl as the loss of Tyreek Hill didn’t slow them down even a tick. Looking forward, the division may not be quite on the level of the AFC East and North, respectively, however the Super Bowl champs are still the favorites to repeat, and some changes with the other three teams should make this interesting yet again. Did the Broncos and Raiders close the gap at all between the Chiefs and the Raiders, or will we see more of the same in 2023?
Denver Broncos
2022 Record – 5-12
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(OT) Mike McGlinchey, (DE) Zach Allen, (OG) Ben Powers, (RB) Samaje Perine
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OG) Graham Glasnow, (DT) Dre’Mont Jones, (CB) Ronald Darby
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Nathaniel Hackett era as head coach in Denver lasted but one season, as the Broncos were able to muster only 5 win in a challenging 2022 campaign. Led by their secondary, in particular cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the defense was able to keep the team competitive during most weeks. However, the offense was never able to find their rhythm, as prized free agent QB Russell Wilson looked lost in his new offense. The team was also one of the most penalized in the league, as timely miscues hurt an already struggling offense. Overall, it resulted in the sixth consecutive losing season for the franchise, that has not been able to establish an identity since the retirement of Peyton Manning.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #12
When a team is contemplating trading draft picks for the rights to have a coach, there’s inherently going to be a lot of pressure on that coach to succeed. So how much success should be expected from the Denver Broncos in 2023? Suggestively speaking, it probably depends on head coach Sean Payton and what he can do with the Denver offense. Maybe more than what he can do with the Denver offense is exactly what he can do with quarterback Russell Wilson. In addition to whatever offensive wizardry you may or may not believe Payton can create, the biggest reason for optimism has to be looking ahead to an improved offensive line. Garrett Bolles returns healthy at left tackle, and the team was able to bookend the other side by signing Mike McGlinchey in free agency, and add guard Ben Powers. If Wilson can regain some confidence in the pocket and with his progressions, he should find a little more time to survey the field. The weapons on the outside are oozing potential, even if they haven’t lived up to it just yet. This could finally be the year Jerry Jeudy takes the leap to becoming a star in the league. Tim Patrick was unfortunately lost again in the offseason to injury, but Courtland Sutton is a very capable receiver, and drafting Marvin Mims, Jr. could end up looking genius. Greg Dulcich showed flashes of being dominant at tight end, and Adam Trautman has some familiarity with Payton’s offense. Good news on the running back front as well as it appears Javonte Williams will in fact be ready to go week one of the season. Denver made a sneaky good signing in free agency landing Samaje Perine to help handle some of the load so Williams isn’t overtaxed early in the year. Everything is ultimately going to come back to this coach and quarterback combination though. Does Wilson have some Drew Brees like magic he can revive under Payton to lead a talented roster?
The only reason we don’t have the Denver defense trending upward is because they were really freaking good already. With that being said, you can definitely make the argument that they’ll be even better this year. The team brought in the underrated Zach Allen to play on the defensive line, and poached veteran pass rusher Frank Clark from the rival Chiefs. With Randy Gregory healthy, they should be able to get to the quarterback. That can open up some opportunities for big plays and creating turnovers from one of the top secondarys in the business. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the top cornerback in the league, and the leadership of Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson give defensive coordinator Vance Joseph flexibility to get creative with his coverages. If there is a weakness on the Denver defense, it would have to be the potential lack of depth. The starting eleven are great, however if they are hit with substantial injuries, there isn’t a ton of experience or talent behind them.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 11th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
There are a few teams across both conferences that could fall substantially below their season win total, or cruise past their projected mark. The Denver Broncos fall into that category again, because we just don’t know what kind of an impact Sean Payton is going to have on quarterback Russell Wilson. Would anyone be shocked if Denver ended up being 5-12? How about 12-5? Their performance will also play a big role in how the rest of the teams in the AFC West finish as well. We’re going to stick around the oddsmakers until we see a little more from this group.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
Last season the Denver defense was able to hold opposing quarterbacks down with regularity. Their run defense was a little shaky, but with their pass rushers and secondary, quarterbacks may yet again have trouble throwing against this team. Especially when they’re playing in Mile High, you may want to fade opposing quarterbacks.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Courtland Sutton (WR), Greg Dulcich (TE) Broncos (DST)
This was a late switch, as originally Jerry Jeudy was the guy we had pegged expecting to finally produce a breakout season. Unfortunately, he has a pretty tough hamstring injury, and it looks like he’ll miss at least a couple of weeks of the regular season, and possibly more. As a result, early in the year, Courtland Sutton would be target number one. Russell Wilson did find some nice chemistry with tight end Greg Dulcich last year, and he proved a pretty consistent weapon in the offense. The Broncos defense was one of the best in the league a season ago, and for fantasy purposes at a minimum, they should be good again. The ability for them to rush the passer should get some sacks and their starting secondary is a top five collective group in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Record – 10-7
2022 Record Against the Spread – 11-5-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Eric Kendricks, (WR) Quentin Johnson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Kyle Van Noy, (LB) Drue Tranquill, (S) Nassir Adderley
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The 2022 season for the Los Angeles Chargers in many ways was a microcosm of how their franchise has operated over the past decade. There were ups and downs, and the team looked dominant at times, and pathetic at others. The roster had no shortage of talent on both sides of the ball, yet injuries took their toll, resulting in inconsistent performances week in and week out. Despite the adversity, the Chargers were able to put together a 10-7 record, which was good enough to get them into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They got off to an amazing start in that game versus the Jaguars, amassing a 27-0 lead, in what looked like it was going to be a sleeper win. However, the team fell apart and squandered their lead in the second half, and ended up losing in the second largest playoff comeback in the history of the league.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #6
When evaluating an NFL team, one of the first things we like to do is to poke holes in the roster to find where they may struggle. That’s really hard to do on the Los Angeles Chargers offense, even though they were statistically mediocre a year ago. We’re expecting big improvements this season for one simple fact alone, and that is they are entering the season healthy. This offense was decimated with key injuries last year and yet Justin Herbert still had them competitive. This year he’ll take aim at the rest of the AFC West behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, which is stout across the board, led by massive left tackle Rashawn Slater. Despite vocally being upset with running back wages, Austin Ekeler will be back in his usual dual-threat role, searching for another season piling up touchdowns for fantasy owners. The receivers are a combination of potent and deep as the injuries a year ago to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams forced players like Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton into prominent roles. Although the media will tell you Quentin Johnson hasn’t been able to hold onto the ball in training camp, the rookie receiver has all of the tools to become the faster heir apparent to Keenan Allen in LA. Gerald Everett returns as one of the more consistent receiving tight ends who can win one on one matchups versus linebackers and safeties. After the adversity this offense faced last year, Justin Herbert has to be thrilled to take the field with some much support around him. If there is one thing Herbert needs help with, it’s quite simply coaching. Brandon Staley’s unique approach to the game has gotten stale quickly, and he’ll be under some pressure to win with this talented roster.
It’s not just the offense in LA that has some talented weapons, as the defense boasts some big name players, led by pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, and safety Derwin James. Oh by the way, these guys have had their own issues staying healthy and on the field in recent years as well. Despite the star power and great play of these triplets, the Chargers defense has looked vulnerable at times, particularly against the run. With that being one of their main weaknesses in 2022, they didn’t do a ton from a roster creation standpoint to address this need. Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Drue Tranquill departed in the offseason, and former Minnesota Viking standout Eric Kendricks will fill a middle linebacker spot here. Two seasons ago Kendricks had a bit of a revitalization, playing at a very high level, however last year he did not look great. Can he provide some help with that run defense in the interior, or is the defensive line simply not great or disciplined in the running lanes? The Chargers do get back defensive back J.C. Jackson who missed basically all of last season after inking a large free agent deal. If he can be the player he was brought in to be, the pass rush and coverage should be fine. Opposing teams may just opt to run the ball down their throat though, until they can prove they can stop that.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 8th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The formula for the Chargers in 2023 is pretty simple. Put some points up and get a lead, then use a ferocious pass rush and talented secondary to cement games. If it weren’t for the conference they play in, this team could easily win 13+ games. In actuality, they still could win that many games with the talent that they have. We’re going to tentatively pencil them in for a playoff spot, and with a thought that their win total will end up right around the 11+ mark.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Teasers
The Chargers really don’t have a homefield advantage, or much of a road disadvantage. Utilize the fact that they really shouldn’t have points given or taken away when they’re at home or on the road and figure that into your formula. Additionally, we already know this team plays tough every week, if you can grab extra points when they’re an underdog they’ll be a really good play.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Gerald Everett (TE)
The obvious answers here are the Chargers big four fantasy producers, which would include Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Rookie Quentin Johnston has a bright future in the league as well. All of these guys are poised to put up some pretty massive numbers. We’re going to go a little further down the point scale and find what could end up being a sneaky value pick in tight end Gerald Everett. The veteran has never fully lived up to his potential, but he has shown flashes, and should be a featured player in this offense that benefits from eyes being on their other weapons. The stars are aligning for Everett to have a career year at a position that is often the difference in winning matchups.
Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Record – 14-3
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(OT) Jawaan Taylor, (WR) Richie James, (S) Mike Edwards, (LB) Drue Tranquill, (DE) Charles Omenihu, (DE) Felix Anudike-Uzomah
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (S) Juan Thornhill, (OT) Orlando Brown, (DE) Frank Clark, (OT) Andrew Wylie, (DT) Khalen Saunders
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Losing a player like Tyreek Hill would normally be a detrimental hit for most teams across the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs are not a normal team, or offense under head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. All Kansas City did was lead the league in nearly ever major offensive category, on the way to another Super Bowl appearance and victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs spread the ball around effectively on offense, and utilized some new and young talent on defense to keep the train moving in the right direction. One of the most impressive pieces of the 2022 season, was the adaption Andy Reid to a shorter passing game with a more balanced running attack. The potential demise, or at least step-back from the Chiefs never came to fruition in obtaining their third Super Bowl title.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #4
There truly is nothing left to say about Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as the league’s premier head coach and quarterback combination. No matter what’s going on around them, they’re able to reinvent ways to use their talents to force opponents into submission. They’ll look to continue that trend and defend their Super Bowl crown in an offseason that didn’t necessarily see the team get substantially better. Of course when you’re the defending champs, you more or less need to just hold serve with the contributors you have. The big change on offense comes at the tackle positions as Orlando Brown, Jr. left for Cincinnati, and Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith are now manning the left and right edges, respectively. The interior is intact with center Creed Humphrey and guard Joe Thuney who should keep the pocket clean. For the record, these two were snubbed big time on the NFL top 100 list for the 2022 season. Back to the rest of the offense, Isaiah Pacheco earned the respect and trust of the Chiefs coaching staff with his powerful running and he starts the season as the lead back. Jerick McKinnon should continue to see his share of touches, specifically in the passing game and in the red zone. The only thing we’ll mention regarding All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is he is a year older… What year will it be when he finally shows signs of slowing down? The receiving group won’t necessarily intimidate defensive coordinators, however they do have some speed and game-breaking abilities. Kadarius Toney would be the player most likely to elevate his play, if he can stay focused and healthy. You’ll notice we didn’t mention the departure of offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, and that’s because it’s a non-factor on Andy Reid’s offense.
Don’t look now but the defense in Kansas City is blossoming into a respectful group of players. That may not sound like extreme praise, however when you’re riding with the Chiefs offense, you literally just have to be decent on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs finished in the middle of the pack in 2022, and they got stronger as the season went on. That’s fairly typical for a Steve Spagnuolo defense, and despite some familiar faces leaving in the offseason, this could be the best defense the Chiefs have had during their recent Super Bowl runs. That of course is assuming potential DPOY Chris Jones is actively participating throughout the season. As of mid-August, he’s still holding out for a bigger payday, which would obviously impact the defense negatively if he isn’t suiting up. Chances are he’ll get there eventually, so we’ll assume he’s in the middle of the defensive line wreaking havoc. He’ll be needed as the pass rush is currently falling to George Karlaftis with Charles Omenihu suspended for the first six games of the season. Nick Bolton will anchor the linebackers, and the secondary is now led by cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed.
The corners will play a crucial role as Spagnuolo will ask them to hold up in coverage in an effort to bring extra pressure with the pass rush. This Chiefs defense will be good enough to keep the team competitive, as long as Chris Jones is in the lineup.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 9th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-5
When you look at all of the improvements many of the teams, particularly in the AFC made heading into 2023, they’re basically done with the intention of knocking off the champs. The Chiefs are one of the few teams in the conference who may not be as good as they were last season. The question becomes, did anyone narrow the gap enough to surpass them on the food chain? It might be a little tougher this year for KC, but to be the man you have to beat the man, so until someone takes them down, we’re going to pencil them in as division winners again. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes can basically plug and play with the weapons around them, meaning the offense will be good yet again. There is some concern without having Chris Jones potentially for some time during the season. Even without Jones for a bit, 11 to 13 wins seems pretty do-able.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
It may seem like a square wager to look at betting the overs with Kansas City but we’re all in. The books may factor in the absence of big name wide receivers, into their lines, when in reality the offense should still be pretty dynamic. This team will regularly put up 30+ points, and with a bit of a shaky defense, they’ll give some back as well. Even with totals in the 50’s, don’t be afraid to bet some overs with games involving the Chiefs.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Kadarius Toney (WR)
If you like taking risks, the Chiefs have the potential fantasy player for you in wide receiver Kadarius Toney. After Travis Kelce, the wide receiver room has very little proven experience, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling the most proven player in the group. Targets could get spread around with Rashee Rice, Richie James and others, but Toney by far has the most potential of the bunch. Toney is a player you’ll want to rely on until he can prove he can stay healthy and produce, but he could absolutely be a 1,000 yard guy with a lot of scoring. With his average draft position, and affordability on DFS, he’s an interesting option.
Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Record – 6-11
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Jimmy Garoppolo, (TE) Austin Hooper, (WR) Jakobi Meyers, (CB) Marcus Peters, (S) Marcus Epps, (CB) David Long, (CB) Brandon Facyson, (LB) Robert Spillane, (DE) Tyree Wilson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Derek Carr, (TE) Darren Waller, (WR) Mack Hollins, (LB) Denzel Perryman, (TE) Foster Moreau
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Las Vegas Raiders had an active offseason heading into the 2022 NFL year, including some major additions, most notably wide receiver Davante Adams. The organization hoped that the changes they made would allow them to challenge Kansas City in the AFC West, and possibly lead to a deep playoff run. That never materialized as the team started 2-6 and ended the year with a flat 6-11 record, finishing third in their division. The disappointing season resulted in quarterback Derek Carr moving on in the offseason and another new look offseason. The team got nice production from running back Josh Jacobs, and Adams, however the defense was again one of the worst in the league. The Raiders played in several one score games, but were unable to win when it counted.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #18
For the first time since 2014, Derek Carr is no longer the quarterback and face of the Las Vegas Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo takes command with the goal of getting the proud Raiders franchise back into the playoffs. With 12-1 odds to win the AFC West, the hometown sportsbooks don’t have a lot of faith in that happening. We’re not here to throw shade at Jimmy G or the Raiders, but something tells us they may end up missing Derek Carr more than they realize. It doesn’t help that star running back Josh Jacobs is holding out in his own running back pay dispute. Zamir White would assume the lofty duties of Jacobs if the former Crimson Tide back isn’t on the field. Whoever winds up heading the backfield has some good and some bad ahead of them. The bad news first, is this is probably the weakest offensive line the Raiders have had in the past few years. It’s not terrible, it’s just not great, which may be what Jimmy G needs to be successful. The good news is the wide receivers, led by All-Pro Davante Adams are stellar. Adding Jakobi Meyers with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow give the silver and black a trio that is not easy to cover. We’re at the point now where head coach Josh McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi have to prove they belong as leaders in this league. Can they find a way to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers and keep up with the other offenses in the division?
Since we’re on the subject of coaches that have some things to prove, let’s talk about Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The boisterous DC is a well known name around the NFL circle, however he hasn’t put together a strong defense in years. Can he get this team to improve after being one of the worst in the league a season ago? In watching film of the 2022 Raiders defense, you saw a lot of Maxx Crosby, and very little of anyone else most weeks. The organization did do its part to bring in some additional talent, so if this team isn’t drastically improved, it’s more than fair to bring the heat to Ryan. In addition to Crosby and Chandler Jones, Las Vegas used their first round pick on defensive end Tyree Wilson, who they hope can provide some assistance to Crosby and the pass rush. They also boosted the secondary bringing in Marcus Peters and Brandon Facyson, who will allow Ryan to play man coverage when he chooses. The defense looks better, just still not enough to make this team a true contender.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 6th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds -7.5 Wins (over +155, under -180)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
How long will the Jimmy Garoppolo era end up lasting for the Las Vegas Raiders? If you haven’t been paying attention, former Purdue quarterback Aiden O’Connell has been the top player of the entire preseason. For now, the job is Jimmy G’s, and he should at a minimum keep the silver and black competitive. The big problem for the Raiders is they simply aren’t good enough in the loaded AFC conference. Put this team in the NFC and they have a shot at the playoffs, but in the AFC West, they’re still not on the level with the Chiefs and Chargers.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
We mentioned our belief that the Raiders will be competitive most weeks, which makes them an interesting team to wager on against the spread. Even if the wins and losses don’t end up great, their ATS record could be well above the .500 mark on the year.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Davante Adams (WR)
It really is amazing to see how far down many drafts Davante Adams is falling, mostly due to the lack of belief in his quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo knows how to get the ball to his playmakers, and Adams is too good of a player to not have another really good year. Is the downgrade from Derek Carr to Jimmy G all that much in reality? Don’t let the pieces around him scare you away from taking one of the best in the game.
