ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars -155
Tennessee Titans +350
Indianapolis Colts +600
Houston Texans +800
By most accounts the AFC South division in running dead last in the conference in terms of power and potential for the 2023 NFL season. While the Jaguars are generally discussed as a team on the rise, The Colts and Texans are looking to the future with first round quarterbacks, and the Titans made a last second push to contend, rather than rebuild. An argument can be made that these teams won’t contend for a Lombardi Trophy this season, however that shouldn’t make the division any less competitive. For a foursome of “newer” teams melted together, these rivalries are developing fast, in what is becoming one of the more physical divisions in the league. As we look ahead, there are several questions that need to be answered. Are the Jaguars a legit contender? Can the Titans find their way to overachieve as they have often done under head coach Mike Vrabel? And will the Texans or Colts be competitive with rookie quarterbacks, or are they still a couple of seasons away?
Indianapolis Colts
2022 Record – 4-12-1
2022 Record Against the Spread – 6-11
KEY ADDITIONS:
(DE) Samson Ekubam, (QB) Gardner Minshew, (WR) Isaiah McKenzie, (QB) Anthony Richardson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Matt Ryan, (CB) Stephon Gilmore, (LB) Bobby Okereke, (CB) Brandon Facyson, (WR) Parris Campbell
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
It’s not hyperbole to suggest the Colts were perhaps the most disappointing team in the league a season ago. The team pulled the plug on the Matt Ryan experiment earlier than they probably should have. As a result, they also decided to part ways with head coach Frank Reich, only to bring in former standout center Jeff Saturday who struggled as one might expect with practically zero coaching experience. The season also saw injuries to key players like running back Jonathan Taylor, and blowing the largest lead in NFL history, losing to the Vikings after taking a 33-0 lead. Overall, the season is one that the organization would like to forget, as their 4 wins fell drastically short of expectations.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #15
The Indianapolis Colts enter this year in a weird conundrum that sees them attempting to rebuild, while also working with a veteran roster. The team went all-in drafting rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who appears to be in line to start sooner rather than later, with Gardner Minshew the only other real quarterback option. This position battle will ultimately be decided by new head coach Shane Steichen, the former Eagles offensive coordinator. The team is hopeful Steichen has the skills to lead Richardson in a way he was able to do with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Steichen not only has that responsibility as a first year head coach, he also need to figure out what’s happening with running back Jonathan Taylor. The star running back has requested a trade and is unhappy, with the team seemingly uninterested in paying big bucks for a long-term deal. It’s hard to know what the future holds in Indy, but it’s safe to say this team has some pretty substantial challenges in their present state.
Offensively, we’ll get back to the quarterback position after we take a look at the rest of the pieces on the unit. Jonathan Taylor is one of the few difference-making running backs in the league. Whether or not he is motivated and playing makes a pretty significant difference on what this offense can look like under Steichen. There’s a large falloff when you look at guys like Zack Moss and Deon Jackson taking over as the starting backs if Taylor is not in the lineup. One of the most frustrating pieces of the Colts running game, and offense in general, is the relatively mediocre play of their offensive line. This team really needs a rebound type of season from their All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. For the first time in his career Nelson looked average anchoring the interior left of the line. Regardless of who is playing quarterback or running back, Nelson needs to regain his dominant form. The rest of the line is basically a middle of the pack type of grouping, so in essence, Nelson determines if they fall closer to top ten or bottom twenty in the league. The wide receiver group is headed by Michael Pittman, Jr. who is proving to be a very reliable, if not spectacular receiver. The Colts recognize that Pittman, Jr. does his best work in shorter yardage, and invested in both the draft and free agency bringing in some speed and athleticism with rookie Josh Downs, and veteran Isaiah McKenzie, respectively. With Alec Pierce rounding out the group, there is enough there to be productive for sure, just not a lot that would keep defensive coordinators up at night. If the brief overview you just read doesn’t get you too excited, then we did our job. This offense wreaks of mediocrity, which is not the ideal spot to place an unproven young quarterback like Anthony Richardson. Scouts all believe Richardson has the talent to succeed in the NFL, but he may also have the longest runway to get up to speed. Don’t be shocked if Gardner Minshew gets the starting nod to open the season. Minshew is the ultimate “gamer” who can will his team to competitiveness. Colt fans may get impatient if this ends up being the case, however it would be the best thing for Richardson to get a few extra weeks of practice reps in before seeing the field.
The Colts were dealt an unlucky blow in preseason when lineman Genard Avery was lost for the season, but they still boast one of the better groups in the league. Led by DeForest Buckner, they still can rotate six solid players, and should be solid against the run. The Colts lack a pure pass rusher, and will need to get it done by committee including linebackers Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed. It will be a welcome sight if they can have a healthy Shaquille Leonard back in the middle of the defense as his playmaking abilities have been sorely missed with him out injured. The secondary could end up making or breaking the defense this year with some new faces and uncertainty. Kenny Moore II will familiarly man one corner and it looks like JuJu Brents, a second round pick out of Kansas State will get the duties on the opposite side. They should be ok with their mix of safeties, but if Moore goes down, or Brents struggles, they could really be in trouble stopping the pass.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 29th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-12
Early word around Colts camp is Anthony Richardson is everything they hoped he’d be starting out as a rookie. The reality is Gardner Minshew gives this team the best chance to win right now, but how much would they really win with Minshew? The rookie will take his lumps, but hopefully gain some valuable experience. With inexperience at the QB position, and it looks more and more like no Jonathan Taylor at running back, this offense could find itself repeating what it did a season ago. There is some fluidity with their record for sure, but after entering the 2022 season high on this team, we’re pivoting hard and not expecting much in 2023.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals / Under
Unless this offensive line can absolute dominate, it could be really rough sledding for Richardson and a less than amazing cast of skill players around him. When this team plays against better defenses, they’ll have trouble moving the football. Whether or not the defense can hang in there remains to be seen, but at the very least, looking at Colts team total unders makes a lot of sense.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Michael Pittman, Jr. (WR)
The best advice with the offense of the Colts is to steer clear of basically anyone in terms of fantasy football. Of course Richardson is someone popularly targeted in dynasty and rookie leagues. Michael Pittman, Jr. is really the only viable season long option to consider if he falls far enough in a PPR draft. He’ll grab some tough receptions over the middle and should at least have a decent floor to build upon each week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Record – 9-8
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Calvin Ridley, (OT) Josh Wells, (RB) D’Ernest Johnson, (OT) Anton Johnson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OT) Jawaan Taylor, (DE) Arden Key, (WR) Marvin Jones
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
What a difference a year makes in the National Football League, or an upgrade at the head coaching position. After putting the Urban Meyer debacle behind them, new head coach Doug Pederson was able to come in and not only stabilize things in Jacksonville, but get them their first playoff success in several years. Trevor Lawrence took a nice leap and looked like the guy they drafted number one overall, and the team played hard on offense and defense, ultimately overtaking the Titans in the AFC South. The front office also deserves some praise as they were able to bring in the right combination of free agents to support and build on the young talent of this team.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #26
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team on the rise eager to prove last season’s winning finish and playoff appearance were not a fluke. Head coach Doug Pederson has seemingly pulled the right levers on both offense and defense, taking the franchise from Duval from a laughing stock to a serious playoff contender. The most exciting, and relieving news for Jacksonville, is former first overall pick Trevor Lawrence is living up to the hype he had entering the league. Lawrence looked poised and clutch down the stretch and also made GM Trent Baalke look like a genius in bringing in Christian Kirk and Even Engram, both of which had career years in their first season in teal. With their cornerstone franchise quarterback in place, the Jaguars made sure he has plenty of weapons at his disposal adding former Pro Bowler Calvin Ridley to the mix to partner with Kirk, Engram and Zay Jones. They also added some great depth behind the versatile Travis Etienne, Jr. at running back drafting Tank Bigsby and adding D’Ernest Johnson in the backfield. If there’s a question on this side of the ball, it’s definitely regarding the offensive line. Jawaan Taylor left for a big paycheck, and let tackle Cam Robinson is suspended to begin the season. They addressed this by using their top pick on right tackle Anton Harrison, who scouts seemed split on entering the draft. Harrison should be a capable tackle, although we won’t know for sure until we seem him in game action. It certainly helps he has right guard Brandon Scherff next to him on the line to guide him along the way. An offense that cracked the top ten a season ago has a legitimate shot to make it into the top five, if that offensive line can protect Lawrence week to week.
There aren’t a ton of flashy players and big names on the Jaguar defense, but they play hard and get the most out of the players they do have. That’s evident in their defensive front, as guys like Roy Robertson-Harris and Folorunso Fatukasi just seem to make plays when they’re needed. They consistently win their matchups upfront, allowing the athletic linebackers room to maneuver. Top 2022 draft pick Travon Walker showed some play making skills as a rookie, and playing opposite of veteran Josh Allen, they have a nice edge rush. A player who is sometimes forgotten, but is also in the mix on the pass rush is K’Lavon Chaisson, who gives them the rotational depth needed at the position. The secondary is really not talked about as much as it should be either as Tyson Campbell proved to be a quality starting cornerback, and the safety duo of Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco provide toughness and are both opportunistic players. This isn’t and won’t be what is considered an elite defense, but they are definitely good enough to hold their own and not lose games for the Jags.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 20th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -135, under +115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The Jaguars are a popular team to elevate even further this year behind a more experienced Trevor Lawrence and some potent weaponry on offense. They do play most of the projected big boys during the season though so the schedule isn’t easy in that aspect. The truth is they are also now one of the big boys, or at least want to be in that category. We’ve got them pegged for a nice season, both going over their win total, and winning their division. All aboard the Duval bandwagon!
Possible to Wagers To Play – Futures / Totals – Overs / Against the Spread
We mentioned our thoughts on this team winning the division, and while the odds aren’t as juicy as they were originally, it’s still playable at around -155 if you believe in this team. At this point, it would seem the better bet would be to go over 9.5 wins with lesser juice. The also stated talent on the offense makes this team likely to play in some higher scoring games so if you don’t mind betting square overs, this is a team you could look to do that with.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Travis Etienne (RB), Calvin Ridley (WR)
Where we said it’s wise to avoid all Colts in fantasy, the Jaguars are the polar opposite. Get all of their players and you’ll probably end up doing really well. That includes Lawrence, if you don’t get one of the big five quarterbacks, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and even backup running back Tank Bigsby. The two we really want are Travis Etienne, who is in line for a big season running and receiving, and Calvin Ridley, who looks crisp and of course well rested.
Houston Texans
2022 Record – 3-13-1
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-8-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(TE) Dalton Schultz, (WR) Robert Woods, (DT) Sheldon Rankins, (S) Jimmie Ward, (RB) Devin Singletary, (OG) Shaq Mason, (DT) Hassan Ridgeway, (LB) Chase Winovich, (LB) Denzel Perryman, (QB) C.J. Stroud, (DE) Will Anderson, Jr.
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Brandin Cooks, (TE) Jordan Akins (DE) Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
As was expected by most, the 2022 season was a long and difficult one for the Houston Texans. The team battled hard for Lovie Smith, but at the end of the day, there simply wasn’t enough firepower on either side of the ball for them to win games. This is evidenced by the teams solid mark against the spread, in comparison to their meager 3 game actual win total for the year. Davis Mills was unable to stake his claim to the starting QB position, as the offense finished dead least in offensive EPA, and wasn’t much better in yardage or scoring. Perhaps the most frustrating piece of the campaign, was when the team battled to a win in the last game of the regular season, ultimately costing them the top pick in the draft.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #23
Following up from last season’s recap, the big question that will be sorted out in Houston, is if the team will regret losing out on the number one overall pick in the draft? The team claims they got the guy they want at the quarterback position, with the selection of Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, but the overall draft strategies in Houston have left some critics feasting. The optimism is high in Texans thought, as the team hired former star linebacker Demeco Ryans to be their new head coach. By all accounts Ryan was the best selection for this team, and the organization claims they will be patient as the team builds itself back into a contender. Will that be in a few years, or something they can accomplish sooner, or possibly even this season? Really it’s going to come down to how NFL ready Stroud is to lead this offense and this team. Stroud is certainly has skills that can’t be taught, but can his dominance in college translate in the NFL? He has some nice players surrounding him, but really nothing that is going to keep defensive coordinators awake at night game planning. The offensive line isn’t bad, headed by their two tackles and a nice addition of guard Shaq Mason, which should at least keep Stroud from running for his life. Dameon Pierce will look to build on his impressive rookie season in the backfield, and Devin Singletary should give them stability as a backup. Tight end Dalton Schultz was a nice signing as well, and he could end up being a guy who Stroud looks to as a security blanket and red zone target. The wide receivers are mediocre, with Nico Collins offering the most upside with Noah Brown and Robert Woods returning from injury. Hopefully we’ll get to see John Metchie III on the field as he could be the speedy deep threat they’ll need. In summary for Stroud, things could be worse, but they could absolutely also be a whole lot better.
The Texans have quietly built a respectable defense that is really flying under the radar, for obvious reasons. Drafting Will Anderson, Jr. has a similar feel to when they drafted Mario Williams several years back. Anderson seems like he can be a very good edge player for a long time in the league, which is something every team really needs to have a successful defense. He’s surrounded by some great influences to help him learn with veterans like Sheldon Rankins, Maliek Collins and Jerry Hughes. They also have experience, a lot of experience actually at the linebacker spots. They need to rely on that experience as it’s not the fastest or strongest linebacking group around the league. The secondary has some quality components, however as it stands they lack the big play Pro Bowl type player on the back end. Last year’s top pick Derek Stingley, Jr. certainly has the ability to develop into that, but it wasn’t an easy go of it for him in his rookie season. Let’s make close note of what kind of imprint Demeco Ryans has on this defense as a whole.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 30th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over +110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-11
Call us crazy, but if C.J. Stroud can give the Texans anything beyond rookie struggles, this team could actually be competitive. They don’t have a great roster, but there are winnable games on the schedule, and enough veterans to not be a pushover. With the relatively unknown at the quarterback position, we’ll stick right around where Vegas has them slated in terms of their results for the season.
Possible to Wagers To Play – TBD
We don’t punt very often in terms of trying to provide some sound advice on betting angles, however this team has us stumped. We’ll file the Texans away as a wait and see team before determining if and where some opportunities may rest in wagering for or against them.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Nico Collins (WR)
Dameon Pierce should have a nice sophomore season, except he’ll be sharing some duties with Devin Singletary. Nico Collins is really the guy to watch on this team as he’s available late in most drafts. He’s generally ranked around WR60 as far as average draft position, and that is too low for a player who is essentially the teams number one option. He won’t put up WR1 numbers, but he could be a solid starting flex player for your team.
Tennessee Titans
2022 Record – 7-10
2022 Record Against the Spread – 9-7-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) DeAndre Hopkins, (OT) Andre Dillard, (DE) Arden Key, (LB) Azeez Al-Shaair, (CB) Sean Murphy-Bunting, (OT) Peter Skoronski
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OT) Taylor Lewan, (OG) Nate Davis, (LB) Bud Dupree, (WR) Robert Woods, (LB) David Long, Jr.
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
A four year playoff run came to a halt for the Tennessee Titans, as the team was defeated with Joshua Dobbs as the quarterback in a win and in game in Jacksonville in the regular season finale. The Titans made a controversial move before the season dealing away star wideout A.J. Brown, and then spent a second round pick on quarterback Malik Willis. At least initially, these moves proved detrimental, as the Titans fell apart after a strong 7-3 start as injuries to key players like quarterback Ryan Tannehill, left tackle Taylor Lewan and linebacker Harold Landry took a toll on their depth chart. Combined with a lack of weapons on offense, and Tennessee simply did not have enough firepower to compete with the heavy hitters in the conference.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #32
For a brief point in time it sure felt like the Tennessee Titans were headed for full rebuilding mode with the selection of Will Levis in the draft, a year after taking Malik Willis. There was talk of full scale house cleaning that would send off the big names and contracts on both sides of the ball. Fortunately for Titan fans that was short-lived rumor, and the team actually retooled in an effort to battle once again in the loaded AFC. The offense will be led again by incumbent Ryan Tannehill who is clearly more prepared to play in the NFL than the youngsters on the roster. Tannehill will have to perform well to maintain the starting role, as this team could pull the plug if they get off to a slow start. That shouldn’t happen though as Tannehill simply finds ways to keep his team competitive when he’s on the field. Whether or not he can stay on the field remains to be seen, as this offensive line is potentially the worst in the entire league. They did draft guard Peter Skoronski with their top pick, and they’ll insert him right away on the left side of the line. He’ll be lined up next to the disappointing Andre Dillard at left tackle utility lineman Aaron Brewer at center. Sometimes mixed and match groups like this can surprise you and play well, but it’s tough to see this group holding up through a seventeen game season. That’s not ideal when you have a figurative tank in the backfield looking for another 300 carry season in Derrick Henry. We know Henry can run through people and it’s a rigorous assignment to tackle him, but he really does need a little head of steam as juking and eluding defenders in the backfield is not his specialty. The passing game for Tennessee is usually predicated on Henry’s ability to get defenses to stack the box, opening up some throwing lanes in defenses. Going back to our statement about the Titans not rebuilding, they went all in to grab wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins after his release from the Cardinals. Hopkins is no longer the weapon he was during his days with the Texans, but he was the perfect addition for this team. He gives them a reliable target with good hands, and more importantly, he takes pressure off of the rest of the receivers. Second year receiver Treylon Burks has a real chance to develop now that he isn’t going to be keyed on defensively, and can play without feeling as much pressure. Another player who will benefit is vocal tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, who is stating his case for an All-Pro season. That may be a lofty goal, but hey, you gotta like the confidence.
Head coach Mike Vrabel was visibly upset on more than a few occasions last season as he watched his defense both bend and break with regularity. They fell from one of the top defenses in the league, to ending up in the bottom third, something that Vrabel has not been shy about addressing. Although it certainly wasn’t the only reason, we witnessed how much impact not having injured Harold Landry III had on the overall toughness of this group. Landry returns this year and he has a pair of new linebackers in Azeez Al-Shaair and Arden Key with him, as well as youngster Jack Gibbens. The Minnesota product is the type of player reminiscent of Vrabel during his days, which probably explains why the team is so high on him. Overall, this really seems like a trade out as David Long, Jr. and Bud Dupree, who were manning those positions a season ago seem comparable. The defensive backs look better as Sean Murphy-Bunting was brought in to give them a viable option across from Kristian Fulton. The Titans are still hopeful Roger McCreary and Caleb Farley can be players for them at the position, but in the interim Murphy-Bunting gives them some experience. We haven’t yet touched on the safety duo of Amani Hooker and Kevin Byard, and a defensive line that needs to play better in support of Pro Bowler Jeffery Simmons. Since we are betting people, we’re going to go out on a short limb and say this defense will be improved substantially in 2023.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 27th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over +110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
Originally we had the Titans in the six to seven win range, but after going through the schedule again and re-evaluating after the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins, we’re going to go all the way up to a 9-8 record. This is mostly predicated on Ryan Tannehill playing the season, which we anticipate will happen. They’ll push the Jaguars a bit in the division, but ultimately, they’ll fall a little short in terms of getting into the playoffs. That being said, with plus money over 7.5 wins is certainly a wager to consider, although we’re not confident enough in this Tennessee team to actually play it.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teaser Bets
The Titans will be competitive in nearly all of their games especially early in the season. If you can tack on an extra 6 points to either get under the key number of 3 as a favorite, or over the key number of 8 as an underdog, jump on them. They’re likely to play as many one score games as any team in the league.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE)
The Titans aren’t likely to have too explosive of an offense so you may not want to reach for the big names like DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry. Although Hopkins could provide some value in PPR formats, and Henry could be a nice DFS option against weak run defenses. Chigoziem Okonkwo is a really interesting tight end you may want to stash on your bench as he has huge potential upside. If his game is half as big as his talk, he’ll put up some nice stats.
