PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-3

SEASON RESULTS:
45-43

Week 11 Recap:

It was an up and down weekend for our player props as some hit soundly, some barely squeaked through and others were losses. Much like our weekly plays, we got smacked a bit by double-dipping in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers contest with the Washington Football Team. We lost both Tom Brady’s over 2.5 TD passes which we had at a nice +125, and Mike Evans receiving yardage total. Although it was a bit of a surprise the Bucs’ struggled so much in the first half of the game, what was equally shocking is how both of these wagers looked live with nearly a quarter of football left. However, Washington orchestrated a near 12:00 minute drive holding the ball for the duration of the game, and never giving Brady and Evans the chance to hit their very attainable targets. The other somewhat big surprise was how ineffective Justin Herbert was in a game against the Vikings. We were expecting a 300 yard performance from the young QB, and the Chargers simply never got into an offensive rhythm. We had some nice wins as Stefon Diggs finally had a monster performance as we expected, and continued to ride the legs of Jalen Hurts to a cover. Our take on J.D. McKissic was spot-on and cashed, and we needed up until the final carry of the game for Dalvin Cook for his rushing yardage to get home. A pretty fun week of player props, even if it wasn’t the most profitable we’ve ever had.

Week 12 Preview:

Maybe it’s the smaller slate of games with Thanksgiving in the rear view window, but the player prop opportunities seem a little slim for week number twelve. We’re unfortunately starting in the hole at 0-1 as we had Ezekiel Elliott on Thanksgiving day, which never even threatened. Five more picks are added for Sunday as we don’t have a single wide receiver in play. We’re starting the day fading the Dolphins offensive line and running game and then hoping for some offense with our remaining plays. Three of those plays are bets we’ve won with already this season, and the other is a little bit of quieter player. Here’s what we’ve got locked in:

Our Picks:

Myles Gaskin – Under 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Early in the season the Miami Dolphins were reluctant to have a feature running back in their lineup. In a combination of injury and ineffectiveness, the team has leaned on Myles Gaskin to be their workhorse over the past few weeks, with very marginal success. Gaskin has been getting the carries, but he hasn’t necessarily be racking up the yardage when he’s gotten the football. With the exception of last week where he was able to tally 89 yards against the weak New York Jets defense, yards have been tough to come by. Gaskin has only surpassed his rushing prop total of 54.5 yards three times this season, against the Raiders, Falcons and previously mentioned Jets. Against the tougher opponents he’s actually averaging around 3 yards per carry. Even though the Panthers defense has softened a bit from early in the season, they’re still a capable unit stopping the run. We’re expecting about that 3 yard average per carry, so even if Gaskin gets 15-17 carries, he won’t hit the number.

Leonard Fournette – Over 32.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The impressive run for Leonard Fournette has continued from his playoffs of 2020, as the former top pick of the Jaguars continues to have a hold of the Buccaneers backfield. What’s been most impressive is how Fournette has become so reliable as a pass catcher, and a favorite target for quarterback Tom Brady. It’s no secret that Brady loves to check down to his backs, and Fournette has not disappointed. Fournette has gotten a minimum of 4 targets in every game this season with the exception of one, and has become even more involved in recent weeks. Tampa has a tough matchup against an Indianapolis Colts team that is aggressive up front, and pretty solid at stopping the run. Fournette should get a lot of dump off work, and possibly some screen work in this game against that Colts front seven. With Antonio Brown still missing time in the lineup, teas are able to focus more on defending Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, meaning Fournette remains available for those extra looks. Although the sportsbooks are inching up his receiving totals, this one is still low enough to be in play.

Tevin Coleman – Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Perhaps the ugliest game of the week is a battle between the Texans and the Jets that has major top five draft pick implications. At the end of this contest, this prop bet will either look really sharp, or really bad. When you’re betting on a pedestrian player on a bad football team in a meaningless game, it can be a little risky. Add in the fact that it’s a player that has barely seen the field in recent time and it definitely makes things a boom or bust proposition. Let’s examine why we like this prop to cash: The Texans are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the run, and this is a game that should have plenty of rushing opportunities for both teams. With Michael Carter out due to injury Tevin Coleman should be the primary first and second down back, although Ty Johnson will certainly see plenty of work. With rookie QB Zach Wilson getting back into the lineup, one would think the Jets will be somewhat conservative, specifically early in the football game. Coleman is a legitimate starting running back this week, and with a total of just 37.5 yards we simply have to take a shot on this one.

Jalen Hurts – Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (115)

In sports betting nothing ever lasts forever, and that would include Jalen Hurts going over his rushing yardage total. At some point Hurts will either not be running, or bottled up by an opposing defense. Until that day comes we’re going to continue riding the legs of the dynamic second year player. Hurts continues to be pretty cautious throwing the football, and doesn’t seem to mind tucking and running when things aren’t there in the passing lanes. The Eagles have a suddenly important game with the Giants on Sunday as they find themselves back in the mix for not only a wild card spot, but even a crack at the NFC East. If the bookmakers are going to keep his total around the 50 yard mark we’re going to keep playing it and playing it until either they adjust, or Hurts stops running.

Lamar Jackson – Over 235.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Last season we were treated to a great prime time matchup between the Browns and the Ravens, and the league is hopefully rewarding us with a repeat again on Sunday Night Football. Lamar Jackson is set to return for the Ravens after missing last week with an undisclosed illness. A lot of eyes will be on Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield in this game, but as always it’s Jackson who will command center stage. We’ve talked for weeks now about Jackson and his development as a passer, in addition to his electric scrambling ability. He’ll no doubt make some big plays with his legs in this game, but it’s his arm that may decide the outcome against the Browns secondary. Jackson has his full arsenal of speedy receivers at his disposal in addition to his reliable tight end Mark Andrews. Since week three, Jackson has topped his passing yardage total of 235.5 in every game, with the exception of the beatdown blowout they threw on the Chargers in week number seven. This one passes the numbers test and the eye test so we’re firing away.

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