Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Detroit Lions (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Thursday September 8th
8:20pm
NBC / Amazon Prime
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 54 (-110)
What We’re Watching
Thursday evening the NFL will showcase the reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs opening up the season against the suddenly darling Detroit Lions. Both teams are favored to win their respective divisions, which is familiar territory for Kansas City, and recently unchartered area for Detroit. For the Lions, this is absolutely an early season test to see if they belong with the elite teams of the league. You might normally say this is just another game for the Chiefs, but in what will be one of the most watched games of the season, they should be bringing their best effort. With a projected point total of 54, the offenses are expected to show up and blow up. Can one of these defenses contain the other offense, or will this be a situation where the team with the ball last wins? Maybe more interestingly, can the Lions handle the bright lights and high expectations?
The Lions offense exploded on the scene a year ago and ended up unexpectedly being a top-five unit in the league. Jared Goff had to feel good as he re-established himself as a franchise quarterback capable of leading a team. Everything with the Lions really starts with their offensive line, which is also a top-five group across the NFL. One of the potential Achille’s heels of the Chiefs is a lack of a pass rush, specifically to start the season. Chris Jones is in the midst of his holdout, and Charles Omenihu is suspended to begin the year. Defensive end George Karlaftis will be counted on to provide some pressure, and will be battling with Lions right tackle Penei Sewell. If Sewell and company can neutralize Karlaftis, Goff could be comfortable in the pocket giving him time to find his various receivers. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo never hesitates to bring extra rushers to generate pressure, however that can be dangerous to leave the Lions wideouts single covered. One player that will be interesting to watch is Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. He’s likely to be a little bit of an under the radar player to start the season on the Lions offense, and has the talent to take advantage of favorable matchups. Speaking of rookies, Jahmyr Gibbs will make his NFL debut as the starting running back for Detroit. The impact of not having Chris Jones could also help the rushing attack for the rookie and backup David Montgomery.
The offense for Kansas City will look slightly different in 2023 as Matt Nagy is the new offensive coordinator in relief of the departed Eric Bienemy. Of course head coach Andy Reid will have his thumbprint on much of what they want to do offensively. The other difference will be with the supporting cast of players, starting with the offensive tackles. Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor will man the bookends of the offensive line around the talented interior. Additionally, the starting receivers are shaping up to be Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore. What’s constant though is quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce who will have to carry the load as per usual. If we’ve learned anything over the past few years, it’s that Andy Reid knows how to mix and match pieces and keep defenses off balance with his play-calling. It’ll be tough for Reid to release control, but Matt Nagy could want to utilize the running game headed by Isaiah Pacheco a little more at the beginning of the season. The Lions defense was atrocious in 2022, and we’ll learn pretty quickly if the offseason changes they made will substantially upgrade the unit. The big additions were bringing over safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Cameron Sutton, and selecting linebacker Jack Campbell early in the draft. The back seven should be improved, but the big question might be can anyone support Aiden Hutchinson with a pass rush on the defensive line? Even though we know Patrick Mahomes can handle pressure, he is human, and his play can be impacted if he’s under duress.
Key Trends and Indicators
The Lions finished the 2022 season 9-1 ATS
The Lions are 6-1 in their last 7 September games
The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the NFC
The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 September games
BetCrushers Take:
When you have two teams coming into a season amped up, anything can certainly happen. Eventually, this game is going to come down to both the X’s and O’s, and the players on the field. Both teams have some trends that would favor them, although most trends can realistically be wiped clean to begin a new season. Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses in Kansas City have often started slow, before coming together later in the season. Without Chris Jones in the lineup, that could certainly be the case again. In our opinion, there are two solid ways to wager this game, really dependent upon the side you like. If you believe the Lions are legit, taking the points makes a lot of sense. The Chiefs played in a slew of one score games a year ago and weren’t adept at blowing opponents out. If you like KC here, this is an obvious teaser spot as you’ll get them at home simply needing to win as -.5 point favorites. There are several other teaser legs you can pair them with on Sunday. We’ve got them paired with the Washington Commanders. We’ve also got a nice prop bet via Bovada. Best of luck to everyone this year!
Predicted Score: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Detroit Lions 24
