It’s Leap Day and we’ve got some MACtion locked and loaded! Wednesday’s Denver +7.5 play gave me one hell of a sweat with IPFW getting the 58-51 win. Saved by the hook…and a lucky steal by the Pioneers to keep the Mastodons from covering in the final seconds. It’s all about taking the good with the bad; specifically taking the good any way you can get it. The featured handicaps are on a respectable 4-game win streak so let’s leap right into the Road Dog Report for 2/29/2020.
(613) Ball State +2.5 @ Toledo
Today’s handicap features a battle of two teams recently spotlighted in the Road Dog Report. The 16-12 Ball State Cardinals cross the Indiana-Ohio state line to take on the 14-14 Toledo Rockets. I have no allegiances when it comes to my wagers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m turning my back on the Rockets after coming through for me on Tuesday with a 93-81 Road Dog win. Marreon Jackson was spectacular with a career-high 37 points, propelling them to back-to-back wins after dropping six of seven.
The Cardinals were smacked down 72-59 at Buffalo when I featured them on February 18th. It was not pretty by any measure though they managed to rebound by winning their next two games. Those wins took place at home where they are 7-1 in conference play. As it relates to venue, today’s matchup is weakness on weakness. Ball State is 2-5 in road MAC games, while Toledo is 2-5 at Savage Arena. Toledo sits in third place in the MAC West at 6-9 but well behind the 9-6 Cardinals who are only one game behind Northern Illinois.
I won’t rehash the nitty gritty on these teams considering I recently broke them both down. You can find the links in the following quick and dirty one-liners:
- Toledo’s Marreon Jackson-Luke Knapke duo keeps chugging along.
- Ball State’s Ishmael El-Amin’s perimeter shooting is a barometer of their success on a given night.
Running it Back
These teams kicked off conference play on January 3rd, resulting in a 61-57 win for the home-team Cardinals. It was a battle fought on Ball State’s terms: slow-paced and defensive-oriented. Case in point, they’ve held their opponents to 61 points or less in their last five wins and gave up at least 72 points in their last two losses. Interestingly enough, Toledo has found a way to win by scoring less lately. Outside of Wednesday’s offensive explosion at Central, their previous two wins came when scoring only 65 and 68 points. The Rockets have generally scored more points on the road than at home, failing to crack 70 points in their last four at Savage Arena. Ball State will most likely struggle in a high-scoring scenario like they did at Buffalo, so this is a positive sign for them. The Cardinal defense must buckle down this afternoon for them to have a chance.
On the Money
Considering we played a line with a hook, one of these teams must cover. As road team in conference action, Ball State is a lackluster 2-5 ATS. This is actually substantively better than Toledo’s 0-7 ATS record at home. I’m not one to sugarcoat an ugly situation, and the line move due to the change in venue is not favorable to the Cardinals. Ball State was a 1.5-point favorite in the January 3rd game, yet they are only catching 2.5 points at Toledo. One would think that the number would be more like Toledo -4 purely to account for the change in venue. I suspect two reasons why this isn’t the case: 1) each team has played 14 games since their previous matchup, and 2) Toledo hasn’t covered a spread at home since they played Howard on November 17th. In other words, we’ve learned a lot about them in a couple months of conference action and the Rockets still can’t cover at home.
This is a situation where I rely more on my ratings than the teams’ ATS performance. Like I said earlier, this is a case of weakness vs. weakness and the spot is no exception. I rate the Cardinals close to 2.5 points better than the Rockets on a neutral court, meaning that a spread greater than a bucket is playable for me. The margin is slim and both teams are in reasonably good form, but give me Ball State +2.5 in what should be a grind-it-out slugfest down to the final buzzer.
All Over the Map
It’s a huge hoops day but it’s also Week 4 in the XFL, and we’ve got you covered with an overview of the matchups and a play on a strong home team. Don’t forget about Sunday’s NASCAR Auto Club 400 – our race preview has a pair of early-week plays too. Then there’s our NL West and AL Central previews for the upcoming MLB season. Whew! Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email alerts when the BetCrushers’ latest handicapping content drops.