PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-2

SEASON RESULTS:
58-59

Week 16 Recap:

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades they say, or maybe if you win a prop bet? That’s what happened as the bookmakers were pretty dialed in on their numbers, at least with the three player props we played. J.K. Dobbins had 59 yards rushing, in the third quarter, eclipsing his total of 58.5, by just the hook. On the flip side, Derrick Henry finished with 126 total yards, falling 2.5 yards shy of his total, as he didn’t see the ball on the last two series as the Titans were in pass mode. Jerick McKinnon also fell just a little short as he was unable to get anything going on the ground. His receiving yards were there, but he managed only 7 yards rushing on 5 carries. If he had averaged the 4 yards per carry, he would have gotten there. At the end of the day, he didn’t get it done, and neither did we, falling below the .500 mark yet again on the season.

Week 17 Preview:

We’re going with half a dozen player props in week 17, which include one under and five overs. We’re actually rolling with one of the most disappointing players in the league this season, and have a quarterback in the mega Monday Night Football matchup. A little something for everyone with two QB’s, two RB’s and two wide receivers. Weather doesn’t appear to be an issue as it was the previous two weeks, but incentives might be. Let’s hope we can ring in the New Year in a better light!

Our Picks:

Kenneth Walker III – Under 71.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Seahawks Kenneth Walker III is coming off of a big game against the Chiefs tallying over 100 yards on 26 carries. The key to that sentence is he was playing the Chiefs, a team that doesn’t boast an amazing rush defense. In his prior four games, Walker averaged barely over 30 yards per contest on the ground. The Seahawks have what is expected to be a battle against the feisty Jets, in a game that has major playoff implications in Seattle. The Jets hang their hat on physical defense, and have allowed less than 4 yards per carry to opposing runners this season. While it’s a guarantee Pete Carroll will want to establish a running game, it’s unlikely that the Seahawks will be very successful in actually accomplishing this. Despite a few really nice games for Walker in his rookie campaign, he’s only topped this number four times this season. In a rare fade spot, we’re going under on his rushing yards this Sunday.

Brian Robinson, Jr.- Over 80.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

In full transparency, we were able to lock this bet in before Antonio Gibson was ruled out, and the number has now increased by 20 yards. Even with the total now sitting at a very high 80.5 yards, we’re still looking at Brian Robinson, Jr. to have a big game against the Cleveland Browns. For starters, he should see a few extra snaps without Antonio Gibson in the lineup. The two really appealing things with this prop bet are the improvement in Robinson’s play over the past five games, and the ineptness of the Browns rush defense. Robinson understandably started a little slow after his off-field injury, but has looked a lot more explosive in recent weeks both tallying his best yardage marks, and his highest yards per carry averages. He even managed to put up 58 yards against a 49ers defense that is near impossible to run on a week ago. The running lanes should be a lot easier against a Browns defense that ranks dead least in run defense EPA on the season. In a game that means nothing for the Browns, we’re fully expecting a near 100 yard day for Robinson, Jr. as the Commanders will lean on the running game.

Russell Wilson – Over 220.5 Yards Passing (-115)

It’s not a type that you’re reading here, we’re actually taking the over with a Russell Wilson prop that isn’t interceptions. 2022 will be remembered as a disaster season for Wilson and the Broncos, although they have a chance to play spoilers against the rival Chiefs in week 17. This play actually has more to do with the Chiefs defense and the potential game script than it does Wilson. The Chiefs need a win to stay in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC and should be able to put some points up against a deflated Broncos defense that was just shredded by Baker Mayfield. With Denver potentially needing to throw, Wilson should by default be able to get over what is a very modest total at just 220.5 yards. Wilson has been a bit up and down, but he has thrown for some yards against the poorer defenses in the league, including 247 in his first meeting a couple of weeks ago against the Chiefs. Anytime you’re wagering on a struggling player you have to cross your fingers a bit, but at the end of the day, this total is too low, even for the disappointing Wilson.

Devonta Smith – Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

After what sounded like a return for Jalen Hurts in the upcoming game with the Saints, it now appears we might be seeing Gardner Minshew for a second straight week. In reality, that might be better for the receivers of the Eagles, as Minshew has a little less threat of scrambling and will need to throw the ball more often. Enter Devonta Smith, the Eagles default number two wideout, who is putting up great numbers this season, including topping 100 yards in three of his last four games. A week ago in Minshew’s first start, Smith saw a dozen targets and found the end zone twice. This week he’ll take aim at a Saints defense that has not done well generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, or covering in the secondary. That should mean more good production for the Smith and Minshew combination. At just 54.5 yards, this total seems way too low for the type of work Smith has been putting in of late. Give us the over all day long on this one.

Chris Godwin – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

To say that the Buccaneers offense has been underwhelming would be a serious understatement this season. One of the few bright spots has been the recovery of wide receiver Chris Godwin, who remains the security target for Tom Brady and the passing game. While the yards per catch aren’t impressive, the targets and catches remain there for the shifty slot receiver. His receptions mark has remained steady at 6.5 catches, which is a mark he’s routinely bested, including 5 of the past 6 games. In a home matchup against the Panthers, Godwin should continue to see a lot of work as Brady looks to continue the quick and short passing game, with some uncertainty around their offensive line. The Panthers will also be without top corner Jaycee Horn, which should help all of the Bucs’ receivers in this game. This is really just a trends/predictions play, as Godwin has proven that hitting 7 or more catches is something that is going to happen more often than not this season.

Josh Allen – Over 250.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The passing yardage mark for Josh Allen this week in their matchup against the Bengals started at 241.5 yards, and was quickly driven up to 250.5 yards. Despite losing out on some of the value, this is still a very playable number when you break down this game and the potential script. Allen was routinely sitting around 275 for his passing yard totals for much of the season, before a stretch over the past month has driven this number down. While it’s true Allen hasn’t played his best football in the back half of the season, his yardage totals have largely been skewed by three recent bad weather games. In this contest with the Bengals, the weather looks good, and more importantly, the matchup does as well. The Bengals have been stout against the run, specifically with D.J. Reader in the lineup, and the Bills aren’t afraid to go into full passing mode. On the flip side, the Bengals are likely to put up quite a few points of their own, so a shootout is very much possible. Allen has been really good in standalone prime time games, so he should once again have a nice performance in a big spot.

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