After sitting out Monday’s slate for a variety of reasons, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-25-2021 rolls on with a full slate of MLB action. Unfortunately, Sunday left me with back-to-back no harm, no foul days to finish with a 1-1-1 weekend. The regular season is just about 30% of the way through and things as a whole have been trending positively. So let’s get down to business with a Tuesday solo shot…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-175)
Kansas City rolls into St. Petersburg on a mission to continue their current rebound from an 11-game losing streak. They took four of five from the Brewers and Tigers, and now square off against a Rays club that has won eleven straight games to get them on top of the AL East. Oddly enough, Tampa Bay has powered this win streak with runs – lots of them. They scored 32 in their four-game series against the Blue Jays in Dunedin after racking up 22 runs in three games at Baltimore. But now that they are back home in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, does their approach to winning change?
The difference between the small, windy spring training park in Dunedin and the Trop is significant. It is unlikely that their hot bats will continue their insane trajectory that resulted in 17 home runs and 50 runs in the past seven games on the road. But the Rays’ .288/.379/.568 slash line during that period delivered a league-leading ballpark-adjusted 163 wRC+. The “playoff version” of Randy Arozarena has been crucial in this hot run, as the phnom hit 3 bombs with 8 RBI and 9 runs for a monster 1.148 OPS from the leadoff spot. Clearly, he was not alone though. Joey Wendle (1.500 OBP), Ji-Man Choi (1.176 OBP), and Austin Meadows (1.066 OBP) all mashed last week. Plus backup catcher Mike Zunino (1.551 OBP) got in on the action in his three games behind the plate.
From Highs to Lows…And Back Again?
Opposing the Tampa Bay juggernaut is a Royals squad who squeezed out four wins in five close games last week. Kansas City’s offensive production has been just shy of my expectation this season and has lagged slightly the last couple weeks (.239/.308/.351; 85 wRC+). Fortunately for their sake, the Royals should be rested after a day off yesterday. They’ve looked for offense any way they can get it, and this past week the spark came from recent call-up Kelvin Gutierrez. The 26-year-old third baseman got his first MLB action this season after Hunter Dozier went on the IL with a concussion 10 days ago. He slashed .438/.471/.500 last week to fuel the fire along with a pair of home runs from Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Benintendi’s .421 OBP.
However, their usual hitting machines White Merrifield and Salvador Perez are in a bit of a slump. And Jorge Soler’s persistent woes dropped him to seventh in Sunday’s batting order. Will tonight be the night where K.C.’s lineup picks up the pace? Or is this their true offensive capacity? After all, the Royals’ trailing 14-day (.239/.308/.351; 85 wRC+) and 7-day production (.242/.296/.353; 80 wRC+) calls for improvement back toward their season-long 89 wRC+. But when will the spark come? Undoubtedly, tonight’s opposing pitcher should have a lot to do with it.
B. Keller (R) vs. R. Hill (L)
41-year-old lefty Rich Hill – a guy I was very skeptical about in our AL East preview – gets the call as the Rays go for twelve consecutive wins. We would be looking at this matchup much differently a month ago when Hill started the season with four straight 4-run outings, including a brutal start at Kansas City. He lasted just 2 innings after giving up 4 runs on 4 hits to the Royals, who then went on to win five straight games from there. Since that turbulent start in K.C., Hill took a tough loss after giving up just 2 runs in 6 innings against Oakland then rattled off four starts with only 0 or 1 run against teams like Houston, Oakland, and the Yankees.
Despite the nice run he is on, I still evaluate Hill as a low-to-mid 4.00s FIP starter that could stretch out to 6 innings tonight if the Royals’ bats stay on the quiet side. He has mitigated a 34.2% hard hit rate with a vicious curve and solid cutter to offset a so-so fastball. That curveball should continue to be Rich’s bread and butter, especially against a lineup that has been slightly above average against the hook. However, my key concern lies with the heavy usage of Tampa Bay’s bullpen in the four games against the Jays. Their relief unit has been solid all season (3.57 FIP last 14 days, 3.76 FIP last 7 days) but was worked from top to bottom as they swept Toronto. On the flip side, Kansas City’s relievers have been excellent lately with a 3.43 FIP over the last couple weeks.
When Will the Positive Regression Begin?
Opposing Hill is 25-year-old sinker-baller Brad Keller, who is on a more stable path these days himself. Keller bounced back in a way from a horrendous start that consisted of 16 runs over 12 innings in his first four outings. But he still continues to give up hard contact (46.7% hard hit rate, 11.9% barrel rate) due to an ineffective three-pitch arsenal. Brad’s sinker/slider combo has been wildly disappointing after three straight plus seasons with those key pitches. Sure, the .372 BABIP screams for positive regression – but Keller is a pitch-to-contact guy and is not really fooling many hitters this year.
The problem comes with expecting a significant reversion against Tampa’s grooved-in offense. That is the primary reason why the Rays have been slapped with a big -175 price tag in this contest. For better or worse, I do not expect a stellar outing from Brad Keller tonight – especially after having high hopes for him this spring. To be realistic, I still grade him as a mid-4.00s FIP performer without adjusting for his opponent. The rub comes when those opponent-specific adjustments are made. And Tampa Bay is about as tough as they come right now, even after taking a more conservative approach to their projected offensive output tonight.
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings -1/2 @ -125 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings -1 @ +110 (1/2 unit)
Destined not to make the same mistake as I did on Saturday with the Astros first 5 inning wager, I’m cutting my plus-money -1 position by also laying the hook. Yes, I am being greedy once again in reaching for yield. But I am also not going to let myself push again like last weekend. In a vacuum, the Rays should have a greater edge across the full game as compared to the first 5 innings with both starters in place. However, my biggest concern lies with Tampa Bay’s significant bullpen usage in the Toronto series. So I’ll steer clear of the relievers tonight and back Rich Hill and the Rays’ hot bats – hoping to get in, get out, and get paid.
Around the Horn
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