Milwaukee persevered in a division of hot runs devoid of staying power. Of course, perennial NL Central favorite St. Louis bottoming out did not hurt whatsoever. The 20-8 start from Pittsburgh flamed out, Cincinnati’s early summer heater ran out of fuel, and the Cubbies’ post-ASB run petered out in September. While all that was happening, the Brew Crew played the role of under-the-radar grinder en route to a division crown. Then things got weird in Milwaukee as the rest of the division tightened up their rosters. Who else thinks the 2024 NL Central is very much up for grabs!
The blood, sweat, and tears continue with the BetCrushers’ 5th Annual Divisional Previews & Futures outlook for the 2024 MLB season. As always, we appreciate your support! Are they too much? Maybe. But the ends continue to justify the means, and we hope you’re able to make a few bucks along the way. (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)
2023 Division Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
2023 NL Central Final Standings
- Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)
- Chicago Cubs (83-79)
- Cincinnati Reds (82-80)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)
- St. Louis Cardinals (71-91)
Milwaukee Brewers 2024 Win Total: Open 81.5, Now 77.5
2023 Result: Over 84.5 (92-70 / Pythag: 90)
After a 707-625 record across nine seasons at the helm, manager Craig Counsell said goodbye to Milwaukee and found greener pastures in…Chicago? Both Counsell and front office head David Stearns vacate their positions, giving way to a pair of guys embedded in the organization. Matt Arnold assumes the President of Baseball Operations position as longtime bench coach Pat Murphy steps into the manager role. Major impacts to the Brewers’ stout rotation have bookmakers questioning their ability to hold the NL Central crown, let alone be a winning team for the seventh straight (non-2020) season. Is this team really 14 games worse than last year?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- T Clarke (RP – RHP)
- E Haase (C)
- R Hoskins (1B)
- C Arroyo (INF)
- J Ortiz (INF)
- DL Hall (SP – LHP)
- G Sanchez (C)
- J Junis (RHP)
Subtractions:
- C Santana (1B/DH)
- V Caratini (C)
- B Anderson (3B/OF)
- A Chafin (RP – LHP)
- J Teheran (SP – RHP)
- J Winker (OF/DH)
- E Lauer (SP – LHP)
- R Tellez (1B)
- T Taylor (OF)
- A Houser (SP – RHP)
- C Burnes (SP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 76 – 88
— Rotation —
Pitching has been Milwaukee’s calling card for a few years going. Now the Counsell-less Crew has to do it without Corbin Burnes. Sure, he was well off peak last year (3.4 WAR, 25.5% K) but 32 starts and 193.2 innings is a big loss to recoup nonetheless. Smaller losses include Adrian Houser’s 21 starts/1.8 WAR and Brandon Woodruff’s 11 starts/1.4 WAR. Woody’s 2024 impact stood to be well greater than that if it wasn’t for season-ending shoulder surgery this winter. Those are decent-sized holes, so how did the club reload?
Left-hander DL Hall is one piece of the Corbin Burnes trade haul. The 25-year-old’s MLB experience is limited to 33.0 innings of essentially all relief work. He’s competing for a spot in the Opening Day rotation but impact on the rotation is anything but a slam dunk. Having a high-strikeout/high-ground ball profile with a promising arsenal will pay off for the Brewers at some point. Stay tuned as the season goes on. Tack on free agent Jakob Junis as an interesting choice to fill a rotation spot. Can he recapture his workhorse form from his early days as a starter? Likely not, though 10-20 starts at a low-4.00 level counts for something.
Not To Be Overlooked
Trusty Freddy Peralta’s time as ace has arrived. Questions about continued progress after shoulder issues in 2022 clouded his 2021 breakout might have been answered. A strong 165.2 innings on 30 starts with sub-4.00 numbers looks repeatable. Really good swing-and-miss stuff much like 2021 projects him similar to last season’s 3.0 WAR with small upside. Veteran left-hander Wade Miley isn’t going to give you 150+ innings but he’s a ground ball pitcher with a really good infield behind him.
Much like DL Hall and Jakob Junis, plan on Pat Murphy squeezing starts out of Aaron Ashby and Joe Ross to get to 162. The latter has plenty of starting pitcher experience in Washington, making Ross a prime swingman candidate. Ashby’s emergence was sabotaged by injury last season so he’s all but a lock to get a couple handfuls of starts amongst bullpen duties. Both will be called upon to eat innings however the team needs them. Plus there’s growing hype for prospect Robert Gasser to get called up and promptly jump into the rotation. There’s more pitching talent in the pipeline that could get looks, though 2025 is a more likely landing zone. Treading water from 2023 is where I have this group with 1-2 wins of downside if the piecemeal approach folds like a house of cards.
— Bullpen —
Everything’s going to be just fine in the bullpen with Devin Willams still closing out games, right? He consistently bucks any concern stemming from a 12%+ walk rate by producing tons of strikeouts with that elite whiff-inducing changeup. Thriving by keeping hitters off balance squares up against a head-scratching .198 BABIP. And that begs the question whether Devin can fire off a third-straight sub-2.00 ERA campaign. Either way, durability is a strong suit that earns Williams a 1-WAR floor with tremendous upside.
Setup man Joel Payamps carried a hefty 70.2 innings in relief at 2.55 ERA, 3.48 FIP/3.65 xFIP. Journeyman who found a home Hoby Milner provides Devin Williams with left-handed support – and plenty of it. Milner notched a second-straight 64+ inning relief season at 1.82 ERA, 3.13 FIP/3.66 xFIP. These mere mortals should struggle more with fighting regression than Williams. But their cohort Trevor Megill doesn’t share those same headwinds as a mid-3.00s righty whose .407 BABIP owes him a little something. The reality is this stout collection of high-leverage relievers will have a hard time reaching 4.8 WAR again, likely falling short by 1-2 wins.
Healthy bulk inning loads for Aaron Ashby and Joe Ross are factors in the big picture. Other budding starters could cut their teeth in the bullpen much like Abner Uribe did last season – now he’s a strong candidate for taking another step forward in year two. What will come out of Bryse Wilson and Taylor Clarke having their backs against the wall as mid-4.00s middle relievers? There’s a host of MLB-ready arms chomping at the bit to get back in The Show, so the leash may be short on those two. Much like the rotation, Milwaukee’s bullpen will be challenged to reach their 2023 level.
— Position Players —
Strength up the middle held together Milwaukee’s position player corps like glue. Shortstop Willy Adames delivered another top-tier defensive season alongside double play partner Brice Turang. Plus the catcher group got a huge shot in the arm through the Willson Contreras trade last winter. Contreras’ banner defensive season seemingly came out of nowhere, combining with a .289/.367/.457 line at the plate to help boost the position’s value by 4 wins from 2022 to 2023. Can the 26-year-old backstop repeat that 5.4-WAR effort? Small declines on both sides still project well enough for a 4+ win outlook. Swapping out Victor Caratini for Gary Sanchez to back William up is fine, even with a cautious approach to Sanchez’ power surge.
There isn’t a compelling reason to downgrade the Adames/Turang duo’s defensive grades, however, upgrading their offense is something to consider. Willy struggled at the dish, dropping below the .450 slugging mark for the first time since 2019. Mixed messages between a declining BABIP (.259) and hard hit rate (36.1%) still portend a 5-10% bump for the powerful, strikeout-prone shortstop. Brice really struggled to find a groove in his rookie season (.218/.285/.300) despite hitting quite well at Triple-A in 2022-2023 before his call-up. Becoming a more reliable on-base hitter is crucial for the 24-year-old especially given his tremendous speed. 26 stolen bases at an 86.7% success rate sounds even better with a 20% offensive bump to a modest .240/.310/.350 line. Turang’s improvement likely keeps these three positions’ value on par with 2023.
On The Verge?
The league’s #3 prospect 20-year-old Jackson Chourio’s 8-year, $82M contract extension this winter was the largest for any player yet to make his MLB debut. Given the payday hype and what we’ve seen in Spring Training, the kid should hit the ground running on Opening Day. This is now a club with a bounty of young outfielders like Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Blake Perkins to go along with veteran Christian Yelich. Even so, Jackson’s elevation to the 26-man roster was all but a done deal after the big investment and trading off Tyrone Taylor to made room.
Jackson has risen to the occasion at each step along the way of his short minor league career. FanGraphs’ prospect evaluator Eric Longenhagen succinctly stated back in December: “His power, speed and, more recently, his improvements on defense give him rare upside as a 30/30 threat and plus center field defender.” That’s the perfect combination for Rookie of the Year honors, even with a stout international group coming Stateside. Is +850 not good enough with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee in the mix?
Regardless, Chourio figures to get a ton of reps this season to develop his bat further and see how those fielding skills pan out at this premium position. He’ll fit in well with a group that was proficient on the base paths. Taking on the lion’s share of work in center likely comes with some growing pains, especially after the Wiemer-led position group delivered 3.3 WAR with modest hitting numbers (.235/.310/.413). Small fielding markdowns in the outfield are the only key adjustments I’m making to the Brewers’ skilled defense.
Sharpening the Corners
Declining fielding grades over the past few years make Christian Yelich a prime left-handed hitter in the DH spot. A resurgent 4.1-WAR 2023 (.278/.370/.447, 28 SB) might be tough to run back but the plus-10% baseline established since 2020 should curb any major value loss. Greater time at DH keeps him more in the 2-3 WAR range though. A Garrett Mitchell-Joey Wiemer platoon in left field is an offensive upgrade over last year’s mix-and-match approach without much defensive dropoff. Though the jury is still out whether Sal Frelick can handle lefty pitching and become a more regular name on Pat Murphy’s lineup card.
The hodgepodge at third base should be more organized this season with Joey Ortiz and Andruw Monasterio in place. Monasterio’s good fielding enables infield flexibility and offers a platoon option with Brice Turang at second base. Ortiz as the “other” trade return for Corbin Burnes is fairly unproven at the MLB level, having made just 34 plate appearances in his 2023 debut. Fortunately, the bar is not very high at third and first. Rhys Hoskins’ return from ACL surgery started off well in camp, shining a ray of hope on a position group that put up an ugly 81 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR. There’s a lot of give-and-take in this revamped Milwaukee lineup after a letdown season; with that comes a lot of variance that is tough to pin down for 2024.
Chicago Cubs 2024 Win Total: Open 86, Now 84.5
2023 Result: Over 78 (83-79 / Pythag: 90)
A sluggish start put the Cubs behind the 8 ball in the NL Central race. But it wasn’t for a lack of effort as a summertime surge put them within striking distance. Unfortunately, the run fell short of Milwaukee’s even stronger finish to claim the NL Central. Closing out the season barely above .500 ushered in Craig Counsell from Milwaukee to replace manager David Ross as Craig Breslow’s departure from the front office led to internal promotions. The club did enough to keep the roster in tact, including reuniting with Cody Bellinger and importing Shota Imanaga from Japan. Is it enough to improve, let alone fend off Cincinnati and St. Louis?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Shota Imanaga (SP – LHP)
- M Busch (INF)
- Y Almonte (RP – RHP)
- H Neris (RP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- J Candelario (INF)
- M Stroman (SP – RHP)
- M Fulmer (RP – RHP)
- T Barnhart (C)
- B Boxberger (RP – RHP)
- E Hosmer (1B)
- T Mancini (1B/DH)
- C Heuer (RP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 81 – 83
— Position Players —
Chicago’s slow start had more to do with their struggles at the plate than anything. Starting pitching was consistently average-plus throughout the season, helping keep an even keel in that department. Weather, as we’ve touched on plenty in these previews, is always a factor in Chicago as the early months are often hampered by the dreaded wind blowing in at Wrigley. I’m sure pitchers have a different perspective on that. Much like another team in this division, the Cubbies’ offense ramped up as conditions improved – coincidentally or not.
CHC Offense, by Period (2023)
| Record | Slash Line | wRC+ | WAR (rank) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before June 13 | 29-37 | .243/.323/.391 | 96 | 6.7 (15th) |
| June 13 Onward | 54-42 | .262/.334/.440 | 110 | 18.1 (8th) |
The base case for the Cubs lineup should be picking up where they left off, right? Outside of Jeimer Candelario, they boast impressive continuity from the 2023 season to 2024. Candelario’s second half in Chicago (.234/.318/.445) wasn’t quite as productive as his first half in Washington (.258/.342/.481), making the transition a little less painful. Yet there is still some work to do as Craig Counsell may not have an ideal situation at third base. A combination of Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel, Nick Madrigal, and Miles Mastrobuoni is in line to man the corner much like the pre-Candelario days without much year-over-year change. More playing time for Morel is far from a bad thing after another plus-hitting season with plenty of pop (.247/.313/.508). Ongoing defensive improvement is a must to stick at third base considering how well Madrigal played the field by any defensive measurement.
Fortunately for Counsell, his middle infield pairing of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner is firmly cemented. This elite 9.6-WAR double play duo may see a minor downtick defensively after such phenomenal highs. But a significant dropoff is highly unlikely due to Hoerner’s strong middle infield skills and Swanson tacking on another plus fielding season after 2021’s questionable marks. Both hit well and demonstrated commendable durability despite Dansby playing in fewer than 160 games for the first time since 2020. Conservative valuation in the 8-9 WAR range retains the vast majority of their noteworthy campaigns.
Minor changes behind the plate involve the dismissal of Tucker Barnhart in favor of more playing time for 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. Barnhart’s solid framing will be missed but he hit a measly .202/.285/.257 and spent only 312.2 innings at the catcher position. Both Amaya and veteran Yan Gomes are penciled in for small defensive improvement with someone like Jorge Alfaro waiting in the wings as experienced depth. There is not much prospect value waiting to move up in case of injury or ineffectiveness.
Finding the Right Fit
Retaining Cody Bellinger after his resurgent 4.1-WAR Cubs debut keeps this lineup pretty well in tact. Will he hit .307/.356/.525 again after two miserable seasons to conclude his Dodgers tenure? Numerous projections don’t give it much of a chance. Belli’s sudden 10%+ drop in strikeout rate is sticky to a degree, though the power spike is questionable considering his career-low 31.4% hard hit rate. Although interpretations of that hard contact number are varied. Here in mid-March my inclination is to keep the split against right-handed pitching as is. Dialing back the uncharacteristic 164 wRC+ against lefties is another story. It doesn’t align with his stellar 2017-2019 seasons, let alone anything else in his profile. This is a key consideration given the Cubs’ 12% gain against southpaws from 2022 to 2023.
Bellinger’s middling work in center field likely pushes him into first base and DH duties again in 2024. He and Christopher Morel played themselves off of the grass and into the infield after their -7 DRS contributions in the outfield. Prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario look more like mid-season call-ups at this point in camp. This is a sign of strength, given that Gold Glove left fielder Ian Happ and right fielder Seiya Suzuki handle their business quite well. Happ’s speed and Suzuki’s power are joined by superb .340+ on-base skills to anchor the middle of this lineup – even with allowances for up to 5% offensive declines.
33-year-old left-handed outfielder Mike Tauchman figures to be part of Chicago’s center field equation again. Yet Cody Bellinger is considered for a healthy dose of work there in the absence of PCA and Canario in the season’s early goings. Depth via DH-type Michael Busch, Garrett Cooper, and the aforementioned Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal provides Counsell with options. There’s plenty of feeling out in the early months to address center field, third base, and first base; however, continuity bodes well for another solid defensive season. Small offensive degradation among many of the Cubs’ key players forecasts a several percent dropoff tilted against left-handed pitching splits.
— Rotation —
There’s little doubt that the Cubs found their ace in homegrown talent Justin Steele. The lefty exploded with 173.1 innings across 30 starts, surpassing the 119.0 innings from his 2022 breakout without sacrificing quality. Maybe Steele can’t keep up the impressive 5.0% walk rate but 20% strikeouts and 50% ground balls sets up another low-to-mid 3.00s campaign worth 3+ WAR. His goal is to reach the 180-inning plateau, which would continue his progression toward becoming a reliable 6-inning starter. Another elite season is far from impossible though most signs point to a 1.0-1.5 win regression.
Right-hander Kyle Hendricks returns for an eleventh season in the Cubs rotation after logging his best campaign since 2019. 2.8 WAR is unlikely to hold considering his 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP are countered by 4.42 xFIP and 4.63 SIERA. Mid-4.00s expectation is more in line with Hendricks’ 2021 & 2022 work, projecting a loss of 1 win. More of the same is the expectation for fellow returning starter Jameson Taillon. Little argument over a mid-4.00s baseline makes 2023 a reasonable floor to retain his 1.6 WAR value. Length of starts should persist as a key governor of value.
Winds of Change
Marcus Stroman’s departure is less impactful given the veteran’s inability to cross the 150-inning threshold in his two seasons with the Cubs. The ground ball pitcher posted 2.6 WAR in 25 starts while staying below 4.00 across the board. This is Japanese import Shota Imanaga’s spot to fill now. More strikeouts, less ground balls is the lazy contrast between Stro and Imanaga. That said, 25 starts/140+ innings and high-2.00s WAR are strong commonalities between the two.
Journeyman Drew Smyly figures to become a reliever after 23 starts of 5.62 ERA, 5.38 FIP/5.07 xFIP “quality”. Some combination of 25-year-old lefty Jordan Wicks and 26-year-old righty Hayden Wesneski offers mid-4.00 effectiveness – an improvement over Drew’s likely farewell as a regular rotation piece. Prospect Ben Brown and spot starts from Smyly and swingman Javier Assad add suitable depth, protecting from an abundance of downside as the season wears on. Improvement may be difficult, though there’s enough firepower to keep the rotation on course from where they left off in 2023.
— Bullpen —
The Cubs found their closer after converted starter Adbert Alzolay returned to action after a 2022 season plagued by nagging injuries. He, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. combined for 196 appearances and 200.1 innings – workload that may be tough to replicate in 2024. While the latter two project between last season’s mid-3.00s production and the low 4.00s, Alzolay is likely to gravitate toward them versus retaining his sharp 2.67 ERA.
Newcomers Hector Neris and Yency Almonte are efficient replacements for Michael Fulmer and Michael Rucker with incremental gains that help combat the regression noted above. I hesitate to call Neris a significant upgrade in the high-leverage group after a .219 BABIP fueled 1.71 ERA in Houston last year. Multi-inning and spot start work from Javier Assad and Drew Smyly figure to be important bridge pieces between bulk for the bullpen and keeping the rotation ticking. Expect another mid-pack effort from the relief unit with upside if Alzolay and Neris can fend off regression.
Cincinnati Reds 2024 Win Total: Open 81, Now 82.5
2023 Result: Over 65 (82-80 / Pythag: 77)
The hype was, in fact, real. Cincinnati took their low preseason expectations by the horns, quickly calling up their young talent that was bursting at the seams in Louisville. They fought through key injuries in the rotation and underwhelming veteran performances in the field to blow their win total out of the water by 17 games. Honestly, I didn’t know what to do with them this time last year. Their 57 to 71 win total range was one of the widest of all 30 clubs, yet was still too low for the youth movement. Now oddsmakers have drawn the line around the .500 mark – status quo in the Queen City. Reds fans like me are looking for more but is there enough fuel in the tank for another ride?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- E Pagan (RP – RHP)
- N Martinez (SP – RHP)
- J Candelario (INF)
- F Montas (SP – RHP)
- B Suter (RP – LHP)
Subtractions:
- J Votto (1B)
- K Newman (INF)
- C Casali (C)
- N Senzel (OF)
- D Law (RP – RHP)
- B Lively (RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 76 – 80
— Position Players —
This is where I get to be a homer for a minute. The Reds were actually fun again. They let their young talent hit the ground running as the season went on – and the product was electric. Things started to heat up along with the weather. Fresh legs paired quite well with the new running environment to deliver plenty of excitement in the form of a league-high 190 stolen bases. That much volume with a success rate right at the league’s 80% average rewarded manager David Bell’s willingness to grip it and rip it.
In the big picture, the offense was a touch above average (.249/.327/.420) by taking advantage of opportunities created by team speed. Last June in a (losing) handicap I used Matt McLain’s May 15th MLB debut as the new regime’s jump-off. The dude was was a hitting machine, slashing an impressive .290/.357/.507 in 403 plate appearances. It didn’t take long for the young core of McClain, Elly De La Cruz, and Spencer Steer to wake up a team that started the season with too much dead weight. Wil Myers, Jason Vosler, Jose Barrero were quickly replaced by this impactful rookie class.
CIN Offense, Selected Periods (2023)
| Slugging % | Runs Scored | Stolen Bases | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/30 – 5/14 | .375 (25th) | 171 (22nd) | 29 (13th) |
| 5/15 – 8/27* | .429 (9th) | 464 (6th) | 124 (1st) |
| 8/28 – 10/1 | .450 (6th) | 148 (15th) | 37 (3rd) |
Matt McLain’s .385 BABIP pushes most projections into a 10-20% decline for the season ahead. More playing time should keep his 2024 value roughly on par. Moving from shortstop to second base on a regular basis creates an interesting situation by displacing 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India from his native position. India’s bat is good enough to keep in the lineup somewhere but flexibility to play the infield and outfield plus DH duties will keep him busy.
Following suit, Spencer Steer broke out in his second MLB season as an everyday player. He became a must have in David Bell’s lineup because of how steady and impactful his bat was to this lineup. Similar to McLain, however, we should be skeptical of Steer replicating his impressive .271/.356/.464 line. As for the most notorious member of the rookie class, switch-hitting shortstop Elly De La Cruz hit the ground running in Spring Training. The 22-year-old packs a punch, stole 35 bases, and has a cannon for an arm. But the highlight reel covered up his two main flaws early on: big holes in his swing and a weakness against left-handed pitching. Elly’s impact was immediate but the rapid descent back to earth puts things into perspective for 2024.
De La Cruz Offense by Month (2023)
| Slash Line | wRC+ | K% | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | .307/.358/.523 | 131 | 30.5% | .429 |
| July | .238/.277/.410 | 72 | 34.8% | .333 |
| August | .198/.267/.396 | 69 | 37.9% | .293 |
| Sept/Oct | .202/.311/.315 | 71 | 30.8% | .291 |
De La Cruz’ big knock coming up through the minors was strikeouts. That won’t be going away anytime soon but another year of experience and coaching could stabilize his production. A 30%+ strikeout rate can be worked around with his ability to get around the bases in a hurry. Regardless, Reds Country should be thrilled to have Elly, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer featured in 2024. Expect a small dropoff offensively from this trio while they hold their combined 7.0 WAR through more playing time.
A popular question this offseason concerned what the Reds were going to do with so many infielders. GM Nick Krall answered the question by doubling down and signing free agent third baseman Jeimer Candelario. This is a position that Cincinnati leaned on five different players to fill last year. Plans to move Jeimer to first and give 22-year-old Noelvi Marte third base responsibilities are on hold after Marte’s 80-game PED suspension. Candelario’s prowess as a doubles hitter mixes well with this fast lineup at the cost of $15M a year. He’s an early candidate to take over at first base.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand”s immediate dividends as a rookie earned him a regular spot in David Bell’s lineup. He hits the ball hard and gets on base, making last year’s plus-10% production highly replicable. Now his playing time is less questionable with Marte suspended. Tyler Stephenson and backup Luke Maile headed up the lowest-graded backstop group as a direct result of the 27-year-old Stephenson bottoming out. Stephenson getting back towards league-average offensively and sharpening up behind the plate could be a function of finally getting healthy. This and McLain playing more second base should help the Reds’ defense a small amount.
Don’t Overlook the Outfield
Each failed veteran signing to the Cincinnati outfield had a successful young counterpart. The club moved on quickly from the short-lived bids of Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, and Harrison Bader, turning to non-household names like TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, and Will Benson. Undrafted free agent TJ Friedl’s 4.4 WAR in center field was way more than anyone could have imagined. Good defense, 27 stolen bases, and a 116 wRC+ were the perfect combination for this transitioning roster. Was 2023’s power surge for real? Doubtful. Is he a viable leadoff man who can anchor the Reds outfield? Absolutely, just valued 1-2 wins lower than last season.
All signs point towards a surplus infielder or two like Spencer Steer or Jonathan India getting tapped for left field duty. This affords David Bell the opportunity to play matchups with a healthy complement of left-handed hitters Jake Fraley and Will Benson plus righty Stuart Fairchild. His lefties are extremely biased in their splits, making the lighter-hitting Fairchild Bell’s go-to when southpaws take the mound. There is a 10-20% offensive dropoff between their respective strengths, however, having Stuart’s right-handed bat – or someone else’s – in support is a must.
Modest declines from TJ Friedl and Will Benson are balanced out by the absence of those veteran duds who compiled -1.3 WAR. And now the Reds have the slate cleared for an infield stocked full of fast, young players supplemented by Jeimer Candelario. Interestingly enough, it could be their established catcher Tyler Stephenson that dictates whether this offense holds serve or not. The Reds’ players of tomorrow are, in fact, here today. Cincinnati’s clock is ticking.
— Rotation —
Hopefully I wasn’t the only one who expected Cincinnati’s rotation to lead the club in 2023 in spite of its offense. Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo made 43 starts worth 4.5 WAR in their 2022 rookie campaigns as Graham Ashcraft came out of the blue. Instead of the young trio making headway last season, a hip injury sidelined Greene for a couple months and a calf/tibia injury limited Lodolo to just seven starts. Ashcraft was able to stay healthy for the most part and increase his workload by 40.2 innings without a performance dropoff.
Overall, Reds starters graded out as a bottom five group searching for answers to those injuries. Early-season starts from retread Luke Weaver and converted starter Luis Cessa added little in terms of volume or results. So David Bell turned to his crop of young prospects to fill in the gaps over the summer. Left-hander Brandon Williamson made his MLB debut in May and compiled 23 starts of mid-4.00s quality while struggling to produce whiffs – one of his main qualities as a younger prospect. But the surprise of the season was another southpaw, Andrew Abbott. The 24-year-old earned a spot in the 2024 rotation with a 3.87 ERA over 21 starts. Tread lightly with sub-4.00 expectations in season two, however, as Abbott’s late season production tailed off and a 4.20 FIP/4.56 xFIP caveat comes into play.
Finding Their Footing
The Reds front office understood that a rotation chocked full of young talent can only get you so far. Especially at Great American Ball Park. Instead of splashing in Weaver and Cessa like last spring, the club picked up two veteran free agents in different stages of their careers. Nick Martinez revived his MLB career in San Diego the last couple seasons after a long stint in Japan. The ground-baller’s role appears to be an early-season starter who will shift to bullpen long man to make way for arms coming up from Louisville. As you would expect from a swingman-type, Martinez is about a half-run better out of the bullpen but is more than capable to made 8-15 starts without concern.
Nick Krall’s biggest dice roll of the offseason is Frankie Montas. The 30-year-old was brought to town on a 1-year, $16M deal to see if the guy can make 20+ starts again. A career 4.0-WAR year in 2021 earned him a trade to the Yankees that turned into an injury-filled fiasco. His sub-4.00 performance prior to shoulder injury appears to be a thing of the past according to multiple projections. But if you look at Frankie as a substitute for Weaver and Cessa, the net improvement is somewhere around 1.5 WAR.
Can Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo stay healthy for productive seasons number three? Greene’s fastball and slider lost effectiveness as he posted an 4.82 ERA, again nearly one run higher than his xFIP. Harder contact and a .339 BABIP sure did not do him any favors. Carty’s The Bat may not see improvements for 2024 but several other projections do. Either way, Hunter has a strong chance to repeat and build on 2023’s 2.0 WAR. High-strikeout running mate Nick Lodolo finds himself in reboot mode after losing the majority of his sophomore season to injury. Last year’s sub-4.00 expectations are muted but the 26-year-old’s mix of Ks and ground balls keep his value around 1.5 WAR.
On Call in Louisville
Cincinnati has a deep prospect field down in Triple-A. The post-2024 outlook has Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips square in the crosshairs once Frankie Montas’ fill-in job is complete. These two snuck in a combined 9 starts in the bigs in late-season duty and could get another taste this year. But the more MLB-ready reinforcements Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson have to be ready for the call. After all, injuries are a particular concern among Greene and Montas. And Nick Martinez has topped out at 110 innings in the two seasons since returning from Japan. The organization gambled on offseason upgrades and the rotation stands to gain 3-5 wins unless things really go wrong.
— Bullpen —
All-Star closer Alexis Diaz is written in Sharpie as closer after leading the bullpen to 37 saves and a 3.07 ERA. There’s a ton to like about his fastball/slider combo, no doubt about it. But season two’s 3.07 ERA crept up from 1.84 ERA as a rookie, as telegraphed by a .178 BABIP and 3.97 xFIP. There’s justifiable concern coming off of a full-season 4.20 xFIP and second-half decline with a 17.1% cut in strikeout rate and big ERA jump.
The opposite can be said about Ian Gibaut, who got better as the season went on. He’s developed into a workhorse but the jury is out on how legit his slider is. And it looks like a strained forearm will keep Gibaut sidelined for Opening Day. Setup man Lucas Sims’ return from injury paid off via a 3.10 ERA but he too faces regression. After all, a .212 BABIP and 15.1% walk rate are tough nuts to crack. Pencil things out and the Diaz-Gibaut-Sims collective’s 3.4 WAR shakes out to a sub-2 WAR encore.
Need reinforcements? How about 60+ inning workhorse Emilio Pagan? The veteran is a decent addition, except the variance gets cranked up as his unsustainable 5.3% HR/FB ratio clashies with Great American Ball Park. Otherwise, the mix of Buck Farmer and lefties Sam Moll, Brent Suter, and Alex Young are serviceable horses to round things out. Fernando Cruz came up huge with 63.0 innings in relief and a couple opener appearances – he’s one to keep an eye on. Otherwise, the bulk half of the bullpen is interesting but tough to expect much from. Cincy’s relievers have enough to be respectable but face headwinds throughout.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 Win Total: Open 72, Now 74.5
2023 Result: Over 65.5 (76-86 / Pythag: 71)
The way that the Pittsburgh Pirates burst out of the gates made me happy as a long futures bettor. But man did things gravitate toward sketchy after their 20-8 run came to a close in May. Twelve games above .500 eventually turned into ten games under – overachieving, yet still disappointing. There’s enough to unpack with this retooled roster as one key cog returns from injury and the rotation gets a facelift. Does it all add up to another step forward in 2024? Or is the market correct in predicting a stumble?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- M Gonzales (SP – LHP)
- R Tellez (1B)
- E Olivares (OF)
- M Perez (SP – LHP)
- A Chapman (RP – LHP)
- Y Grandal (C)
- J Fleming (LHP)
Subtractions:
- N/A
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 71 – 74
— Position Players —
Improved is a good word for the 2023 Pirates lineup. Sure, they hit the third-least home runs (159) and converted stolen base attempts at a rate 6% below the league average. But a 6% overall offensive uptick is indeed improvement. Right-handed hitters like Connor Joe, Andrew McCutcheon, and Ke’Bryan Hayes carried the torch of progress against southpaw pitchers. Otherwise, manager Derek Shelton had his hands full with no shortage of younger talent to cycle through – especially after losing outstanding shortstop talent Oneil Cruz so early in the season.
Cruz is a great place to start after missing all but 9 games last season. The patchwork approach to filling in at shortstop gives way to Oneil’s return from ankle surgery and the prospect for improved fielding at this weak spot. Turning around a position group valued at -1.1 WAR that posted a measly 69 wRC+ shouldn’t be too hard, right? Oneil’s propensity to strike out at a high-20s% clip muffles his impressive power and speed. Yet he’s still a 5-10% plus hitter who runs the bases well. Defensive improvements are also on deck to put the shortstop position in much better hands.
Trusty third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes graded out as a top-three defender at the hot corner once again, however, several projections have muted the 27-year-old’s effectiveness in 2024. My downgrade to start the season will be modest though. The bigger question surrounds his huge power spike in 2023. After his slugging hovered around .360 in 2021-2022, Hayes popped an impressive .453 that drives skepticism. Can he slug .400 or better in 2024? Very likely. Shift some of that power back to greater on-base reliability and Ke’Bryan’s bat still grades out around league-average. A net of at least 2 wins is waiting if these two stay healthy.
Filling In the Gaps (Take Two)
A late February article from MLB Trade Rumors hits the pros and cons of Pittsburgh’s young infield rotation. Let’s just say that second base is going to be a fluid situation unless one of the young quartet of Jared Triolo, Ji Hwan Bae, Nick Gonzales, and Liover Peguero steps out in front of his peers. Righty/lefty hitting pair Peguero and Bae appear to be the Opening Day combo – for now, anyways. Bae split time between center field and second base, carrying the largest workload of all Pirates who took a crack at second last season. He and Peguero are 70-80 wRC+ hitters with sub-.400 slugging. Gonzales and Triolo look to have more offensive upside; don’t be fooled by the latter’s short-sample, .440 BABIP MLB debut. Pulling the right strings modestly improves last year’s replacement-level collective effort.
As the kinks at second base get worked out, Derek Shelton has a decent stop-gap solution at catcher. That became necessary when top prospect Endy Rodriguez’s season ended before it started. Defense-first Austin Hedges is back in Cleveland, leaving behind a .180/.237/.230 line that 35-year-old Yasmani Grandal should easily surpass. But the real wild card here is power-hitting Henry Davis’ return behind the plate. He and Grandal upgrade the group’s offense 10-20% with concern for an opposite and equal-ish adjustment defensively. The catcher position group is the biggest source of fielding regression, slightly overshadowing any gains elsewhere.
First base was a weakness that really needed solved last year. The Ji-Man Choi hype train never left the tracks but Carlos Santana slugged nicely and fielded the position very well until being traded in late July. Connor Joe found his way into part-time duties as a strong bat against lefties, taking over Santana’s role to a degree. All signs point to a Rowdy Tellez rebound after a power outage (.215/.291/.376) unless the 4.3% strikeout bump sticks around. An effective Tellez-Joe platoon shouldn’t lose a ton of value from the Santana days. That’s indicative of the give here, take there rearranging that sums up the infield situation.
Tightening Up the Outfield
Last winter the Pirates front office answered whether homegrown outfield talent Bryan Reynolds would stay in Pittsburgh or be traded in the summer. Reynolds responded to the 8-year, $107M extension with his least productive season in the majors outside of 2020. Since his gaudy 6.0-WAR 2021 campaign, Reynolds has been a less dynamic fielder and less consistent hitter. Don’t get me wrong, the 29-year-old still has a plus-10% bat and good defense implemented primarily in left field now. There is room for improvement considering that Bryan hit the ball harder than ever and projects for a half-win of improvement by recapturing lost on-base opportunities.
Reynolds’ move to the corner was accelerated by the emergence of 25-year-old centerfielder Jack Suwinski. The fleet-footed lefty found extra power after his 2022 MLB debut while losing his fielding edge in the process. But the young outfielder is working to shore up the biggest hole in his game this spring: hitting against southpaws. Time will tell if his more compact approach will keep him in the lineup more often. A 68 wRC+ and 41.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching won’t cut it as a 500-PA everyday player.
Jack is flanked on the other side by former Royal Edward Olivares to hopefully settle last year’s revolving door in right field. With Henry Davis moving behind the plate, Olivares figures to split time with someone like Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe, Joshua Palacios, etc. There’s a win or two to be gained in the outfield through small offensive and defensive improvements. Yet right field is far from settled after Olivares’ rough season with the glove. It joins first and second base as positions with lingering questions. If those issues are not worked out, production from a healthy Oneil Cruz could get lost in the mix.
— Rotation —
Mitch Keller earned a second straight Opening Day start after nailing down a career season. Strikeouts were up 5.4%, walks down 2.0%, and innings up to 194.1 – as you would expect from your ace. Keller stretched out to an average of 6.07 innings/start to pick up 3.3 WAR, approximately 48% of the rotations value. A rockier second half seems to keep most projections modestly as good as last year. However, 3 WAR is a decent floor if Mitch carries through with another 30 start/180 inning campaign.
M Keller, 2023 Production by Half
| AVG | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H | .220 | 26.7% | 7.0% | 3.31 | 3.32 | 3.58 | .284 |
| 2H | .288 | 23.8% | 6.2% | 5.59 | 4.52 | 3.88 | .345 |
A 4.00-ERA workhorse atop the rotation is far from terrible. The next concern is replacing 2.9 WAR and 54 starts between veteran free agent Rich Hill and Johan Oviedo, who will miss this season after December Tommy John surgery. This opens the door for Luis L Ortiz and Roansy Contreras to assume larger roles in the rotation. But the leash will likely be short after these two combined for 26 starts of replacement-level production. Ortiz’ 4.93 ERA, 5.89 FIP/5.47 xFIP and Contreras’ 6.13 ERA, 4.82 FIP/5.31 xFIP leave a lot to be desired. Mid-4.00s to 5.00 production ahead for these young arms isn’t out of the question though.
Similar to last winter, GM Ben Cherington sought veteran left-handed help via free agents Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. 33-year-old Perez fell back to earth after unexpectedly surging to career highs upon returning to Texas in 2022. Martin’s 4.98 ERA and 5.30 FIP/5.25 xFIP as a starter last season does not paint a great picture though. Naturally, his projections are all over the place with mid-4.00s as the base case. Uncertainty is a given with Marco’s 2023 season being cut short by a forearm flexor strain after just 10 starts. Projections are more clustered in the high-4.00s after the southpaw continued to lose strikeout ability like Perez. If they’re lucky, Pittsburgh will come close to recapturing the lost value of Hill and Oviedo with them.
Triple-A Indianapolis is full of starting pitching talent though. Top prospect Quinn Priester should build on his 8-start, 7.88-ERA debut and be more ready for MLB action. Cohorts Kyle Nicolas and Jackson Wolf could be tapped but unlikely for any impactful period of time. But the kid that everyone is waiting for is 2023 #1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes. The 21-year-old from LSU should make his MLB debut and could contribute up to 1 win of value if fully ready to go this summer. There will be the inevitable growing pains along the way, though Pittsburgh needs him to develop promptly to be a contender in the 2025 NL Central. As for this season, I’ll buy the optimism for a 2-3 WAR improvement from 2023.
— Bullpen —
It took a small village to compile the ninth-most relief innings (626.1) last year. Young starter hopefuls Quinn Priester and Bailey Falter made a handful of pseudo starts in the form of extra long relief, otherwise a conveyor belt of arms made up a ton of bulk innings. Those guys were important because of the rotation’s shortcomings. But the bullpen’s direction for 2024 has more to do with the late-inning group.
The buck stops at All-Star closer David Bednar, whose 39 saves in 42 opportunities are testament to his steep 2.3 WAR value. Oh yeah, 67.1 innings counts for something too. There’s debate about how far the 3.86 xFIP will drag down last season’s 2.00 ERA though. Plus the hometown guy was just shut down for a lat strain as I wrote this – something to definitely keep an eye on as camp comes to a close. He’s such a high-strikeout guy that gives a substantial floor worth 1+ WAR even without being as spectacular as 2023.
Insult to injury struck when key right-hander Dauri Moreta went down right after Bednar’s setback. It’s the dreaded “elbow discomfort” status that concerns the club, especially after putting up 58.0 innings of 3.72-ERA relief. This makes the Aroldis Chapman pickup even more of a factor. He’s nowhere near peak form of his Cincinnati years but is no stranger to high-leverage work. Ground balls and strikeouts can make up for the wild side; enough to accumulate 1 WAR if he hits that 55+ inning threshold. They’ll need a lot out of Colin Holderman again, plus projections for larger roles by Ryan Borucki and Carmen Mlodzinski are almost musts at this point. Last season’s performance is a probable ceiling for 2024; greater downside concerns persist depending on the health of Moreta and Bednar as well as the inning-eating capability of key middle relievers.
St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Win Total: Open 85, Now 84
2023 Result: Under 90.5 (71-91 / Pythag: 71)
Once upon a time, you could blindly peg the St. Louis Cardinals for a 90-win team and not be wrong. Then came 2023 and everything went wrong. Nearly everything. But when such a reliable club unexpectedly drops to the bottom of the NL Central without notice, the inquiring mind wants to know what lies beneath those struggles. Better question for the betting enthusiasts: how the hell are the Cardinals going to gain 13 wins to meet their win total?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- K Gibson (SP – RHP)
- L Lynn (SP – RHP)
- S Gray (SP – RHP)
- N Robertson (RP – RHP)
- A Kittredge (RP – RHP)
- M Carpenter (DH)
- K Middleton (RP – RHP)
- B Crawford (INF)
Subtractions:
- D VerHagen (RP – RHP)
- A Wainwright (SP – RHP)
- D Hudson (SP – RHP)
- A Knizner (C)
- J Woodford (SP – RHP)
- T O’Neill (OF)
- R Palacios (OF)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 74 – 91
— Rotation —
Starting pitching has not been a strong suit of the Cardinals franchise for a few years now. The 2023 rotation’s 5.08 ERA was the MLB’s fifth highest as a result of a paltry 2.26 K/BB ratio and .285 average against. For better or worse, the two starters snake-bit by .345+ BABIPs – Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright – are no longer on the roster. Waino’s farewell tour was a rough one until the storybook finish against Milwaukee (7.0 IP, 4H, 0R) fitting for St. Louis’ beloved righty.
Wainwright’s grand finale put a positive touch on the Cardinals’ brutal season. It was a year in which their best performing starting pitcher, Jordan Montgomery was dealt to the Texas Rangers. Jack Flaherty was jettisoned at the trade deadline after his bounceback bid was waylaid by tough luck and focus issues. Somehow, second-year manager Oliver Marmol cobbled together ten starting pitchers to get through the season.
One constant that bridged the hopeful first half to the reality-bitten conclusion was righty Miles Mikolas. The 34-year-old logged 200+ innings for the second year in a row in a league-high 35 starts. Unfortunately, 2022’s sub-4.00 effectiveness by virtue of a .245 BABIP turned into a 4.78 ERA and 4.27 FIP/4.76 xFIP. His fastball and curve were not nearly as effective, resulting in a 7.1% spike in hard contact. Mikolas will have a hard time pulling off a 3-WAR season without another 200 inning effort this year.
Help Wanted
Enter the Cardinals’ “New 3” starting pitchers. John Mozeliak wasted no time this offseason bringing in Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson to prop up an ailing starting pitching group. Coming off of a career-best season, 34-year-old Gray may have found the recipe for a resurgence. Sonny changed his approach to pitching (i.e., the crafty veteran gameplan) and executed an offseason preparation regimen that led to his most innings since 2015 (184.0 IP) and career-high 5.3 WAR while in Minnesota. Naturally, a minor hamstring strain suffered in early March could jeopardize Sonny’s Opening Day availability.
Perhaps the Cards bought high on Sonny Gray after posting such impressive marks at his age. Even factoring in some xFIP and HR luck regression – Gray’s 5.2% HR/FB rate was extremely low – 30 starts at a mid-to-upper 3.00s level would not be bad by any means. Familiar face Lance Lynn suffered an extremely high 19.0% HR/FB rate and overshot his xFIP by 1+ runs. Both Lynn and Kyle Gibson will shoot for the mid-4.00s mark based on last season’s peripherals. All in all, bringing on three established veterans who showed significant durability could be what the Cardinals need to stabilize their rotation and get back on track as a team.
STL’s “New 3” Starting Pitchers (2023)
| Age | Starts | IP | K/BB | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Gray (R) | 34 | 32 | 184.0 | 3.33 | 2.79 | 2.83/3.64 | 5.3 |
| L Lynn (R) | 36 | 32 | 183.2 | 2.85 | 5.73 | 5.53/4.50 | 0.5 |
| K Gibson (R) | 36 | 33 | 192.0 | 2.85 | 4.73 | 4.13/4.13 | 2.6 |
Assuming these three veterans are as durable as 2023, projections for a collective 7-8 WAR are within reach. Add a couple from Miles Mikolas and the rotation is generally on equal footing with last year. So what about a #5 starter and depth? Mozeliak and the Cardinals front office are smart enough not to rely solely on injury-free seasons from a bunch of guys in their mid-30s. Left-hander Steven Matz pencils in as the early season fifth starter but is only a few years their junior. Health-wise, Matz has not turned in a full season since 2021. Even then, he was a 4.00-FIP, 5-inning guy – a profile that persisted through most of last year’s starts.
Whether Matz is merely a placeholder or if injury sidelines the other four, St. Louis has decent rotation depth. And that’s in addition to a potent crop of starting pitcher prospects in the pipeline for 2025 and beyond. Arms at the ready include Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom, and Zack Thompson – all of whom have starting experience. These three southpaws profile out as 4.00-ish types with Thompson being the more strikeout-heavy pitcher ready to start the season in the bullpen. The Cardinals have more beef in the 2024 rotation that should create a more reliable, average-plus unit worth a couple extra wins.
— Bullpen —
Upward movement from a young pitching talent pool afforded the Cardinals the luxury to trade two impact relievers last summer – Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton – then let Drew VerHagen walk in free agency. Stratton and Hicks provided 43% of the bullpen’s net value before being traded. Bulk reliever VerHagen leaves a 61-inning hole, a less daunting task. Not to worry, as St. Louis has plenty of arms to fill that role and those of the aforementioned budding starters biding their time.
The high-leverage half of the bullpen is still formidable. Fireballer Ryan Helsley likely peaked in his 2022 breakout season (.185 BABIP, 1.25 ERA, 2.34 FIP/2.60 xFIP) yet still put up a 35.6% strikeout rate in an injury-shortened campaign. Longtime setup man Giovanny Gallegos is also on the downside of his career arc, looking for a little better home run luck after a tough 2023 in which he yielded 46.2% hard contact. His left-handed counterpart JoJo Romero is in his prime and stands to tack on another 30 appearances. More volume would offset any headwinds coming off of a sharp 3.68 ERA, 2.22 FIP/2.68 xFIP season.
You have to question whether the Cardinals’ diminished defense dings heavy ground ballers like JoJo Romero and Andre Pallante. The jury is still out where these guys shake out in the walks department too. When you consider the lower half of the bullpen as a healthy mix of 4.00-FIP live arms like John King and newcomers Andrew Kittredge and Kenyan Middleton, things shape up decently. A strong back end plus good depth keeps the St. Louis bullpen in the same ballpark as 2023.
— Position Players —
Giving up the sixth-most runs was one thing, scoring them at a below-average clip is another. Things were so bad that perennial Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado failed to win the award in 2023. This is a man who has literally carried that title each year since his 2013 rookie season. We’ve grown accustomed to a St. Louis defense that bails out a mediocre offense to grind out 90 wins. Instead, the Redbirds’ fielding was a significant liability. And this wasn’t something limited to a couple spots scattered around the ballpark. It was like a tidal wave of the yips hit the entire roster.
STL Defense, by Position (2022 vs. 2023)
| ’22 DRS | ’23 DRS | ’22 UZR/150* | ’23 UZR/150* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | -2 | -11 | -3.4 | -18.0 |
| 1B | 2 | 1 | 4.1 | -2.2 |
| 2B | 7 | -4 | 1.9 | -9.6 |
| 3B | 27 | -1 | 11.1 | -4.4 |
| SS | 14 | 0 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| LF | -3 | -11 | -3.1 | -4.5 |
| CF | 6 | -2 | 7.7 | 2.0 |
| RF | -3 | -6 | 3.6 | -4.0 |
Has the roster has changed fundamentally towards ditching the run-saving approach? Or is inevitable aging taking its toll? In one way, Tommy Edman is an interesting replacement for Harrison Bader. That’s a lot of mileage in center field over a long season for a guy who had wrist issues and underwent arthroscopic surgery in October. I still see confidence in 2+ WAR just for being a balanced, versatile player. Edman and switch-hitting Dylan Carlson are a good team in center. Moving Edman to the outfield sounded fishy for a minute but the deck needed a shuffle. Now the way is cleared for 21-year-old Masyn Winn to gain significant reps at short after a tough debut.
The true sign of pivoting from a run-saving team to one that produces more of them is the Jordan Walker for Tyler O’Neill swap. It can’t get much worse than the 16 runs lost by Walker in his rookie season, or can it? But that bat. It is a good 15% better than O’Neill’s was and now the 21-year-old picks up a larger share of action in the corner. Lars Nootbar returns across the outfield as a legitimate righty thumper who should replace his 3-WAR value. The defense as a whole should perform more like 2023 than years prior with a couple ticks to the upside.
Don’t Call It a Comeback
The biggest reason for the offensive decline boiled down to the Cardinals’ most impactful players. NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado had career seasons in 2022. And just like clockwork, both of these established veterans saw their offensive production drop by 40%+. Regression is one hell of a price to pay! Small rebounds are in order though. Monster seasons at the dish may be a thing of the past for Goldy and Nolan, however, these All-Stars have upside with particular strength against southpaws – an attribute that completely fell off the map last year.
Another position ripe for improvement is catcher. Willson Contreras’ entree to the Cardinals organization was filled with drama as his slow start defensively evoked the spirit of Yadier Molina. Turns out the guy wasn’t the reason for St. Louis’ downfall after all. And that’s a good thing considering how Contreras has four more years on his deal. The former Cubs backstop hit just fine and projects for a better season defensively along with an upgraded backup in 23-year-old Ivan Herrera. He projects better than the departed Andrew Knizner both at and behind the plate.
There’s plenty of moving parts and options on this roster. The cluster of Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Carpenter give Oli Marmol plenty of room to play the platoon game and rest his veterans as needed. Can you ever have too many left-handed hitters on the roster? Maybe. Pulling their weight through a 162-game season is where the rubber meets the road though. This lineup stands to gain 2-4 wins of value offensively, with stronger improvement against left-handed pitching via Goldschmidt and Arenado.
2024 NL Central Projected Standings
- St. Louis Cardinals (85-77)
- Chicago Cubs (82-80)
- Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
- Cincinnati Reds (77-85)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)
That’s a Wrap!
Preseason prep is all but over now that the sixth and final preview is published. Don’t worry, daily handicap articles will start dropping soon – right after our Opening Day breakdown. Enjoy the season and BOL! Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications:
