BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 7-8
JJ – 7-8
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 42-35-1
JJ – 35-42-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
Things started out pretty well for us last Thursday and in the early games for us as we cruised to a solid leading record against the spread. We both got duped by both the Bengals and the Jaguars but other than that were pretty on point with the rest of the 1:00 games. It was the late games and prime-time games that forced us into what ended up a very marginal 7-8 for the weekend. After a brutal week four for amateur sports bettors the sportsbooks were a little kinder in week five, although not exactly generous. The Chiefs were a heavily bet game (we had them also) and we all saw what happened there as the injuries for KC finally took their toll. Give Frank Reich and the Colts credit for a great game plan and really taking it to Mahomes and gang. The other game that not only hurt us, but also the public was the Bears losing to the Raiders across the pond in England. We all knew the Bears weren’t a huge threat offensively, but how the heck they allowed Derek Carr and the Raiders to put points up and move the ball on them is a mystery. We had the Bears teased so we really just need a Bears win, and when they climbed back to take the lead with 4:00 minutes left in the fourth quarter it seemed like things would work out there with that defense going on the field. A roughing penalty, getting fooled on a fake punt, and shear determination gave the Raiders the victory and has the NFL world wondering if the Bears have a legitimate shot at the playoffs or not? It’s time for a hot week, let’s see what we can get going.
vs. 
NEW YORK GIANTS (2-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-0)
Thursday – October 10th – 8:20pm
Spread: New England Patriots -17
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: New England 70%
The Breakdown:
There are a handful of really good and memorable Super Bowls throughout the history of the NFL and these teams have played in two of those, with the Giants pulling upsets and winning both. Week six kicks off in Foxborough as they meet again in what most likely is going to be far from a memorable or competitive contest with the Patriots listed as 17.5 point favorites against an injury-riddled New York Giant team. There is very little doubt who the winner of this match will be, so the only real intrigue is for those with some action on the game.
We’ll be the first to admit we questioned Daniel Jones and his ability to be a franchise NFL quarterback and if we could take that one back we probably would, even though it’s really early in his career. This is an almost unfair assignment for him as he has to go to New England against the league’s top rated defense on a short week without his top two running backs (one is MVP caliber), his top wideout and leading tight end. Welcome to the big leagues rookie. Where the heck are the Giants going to be able to generate any offense from?
The New England offense also enters the game with some question marks as their trio of wide receivers are all dinged up with Phillip Dorsett unlikely to play, and their running backs also a little nicked. We’ll just consider that karma in order to keep this from being an absolute bloodbath. The Giants have struggled generating much of a pass rush this year and as we’ve all learned, the only way to slow down Tom Brady is to get in his face and at his feet early and often. New York’s inability to do that will continue to expose their secondary and Brady should have little trouble picking apart their zone or more likely, man coverage. This is also a spot where there will be heavy doses of Sony Michel on the ground. Dalvin Cook and the Vikings were able to run through the Giants and you can be sure that Pats’ OC Josh McDaniels took note of that. Don’t be surprised if the Giants defense mails it in if the offense has repeated 3 and outs and or turnovers. They’ll most likely be anxious to head back home to enjoy their mini-bye and regroup getting Saquon Barkley and their offensive talent back for a winnable upcoming game against the Cardinals.
KEY STATS – The Patriots are allowing 6.8 points per game
– Under Bill Belichek the Patriots are 13-2 on TNF
– The Patriots are 9-2 ATS as double-digit favorites
– The total has stayed under in 9 of the last 11 Giants
games in prime-time
One other note before we get to our pick for this one, it looks like rain is likely to be in the forecast during this one. So with all of those factors, what is the best way to potentially wager on and play the Thursday night game? There are a few different thoughts for us and none of them involve going anywhere near this depleted NYG team. You could certainly lay the points and probably wind up ok, although that is a really big number. Knowing the Giants will struggle on offense it’s on the table to look at the game total staying under. There’s one big concern on that however, and that is what if New England puts 40+ points on the board? It’s not likely, yet it’s not impossible. If the Giants defense mails it in, or the New England defense scores a couple of touchdowns on their own they could wreck the game under. With all of that, we’re going to play the part of this game that we believe is the surest side of all and that is the New York Giants team total under. While it’s set at a low number of 12.5, remember the Patriots are only giving up 7 points a game, and one of the touchdowns they allowed was actually on a pick six when Tom Brady was on the sidelines during a blowout. (They put him back in). Can a rookie QB, on a short week in a hostile stadium put up more points than what the Pats’ are averaging allowed? Or in simpler terms will the Giants score 2 to 3 times in the course of this game minus 4 of their top weapons on offense? We’re gonna go ahead and vote no on that ballot.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -17 (Patriots 31, Giants 6)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -17 (Patriots 34, Giants 10)
vs. 
CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-2) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-3)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Carolina Panthers -2
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Carolina 52%
The Breakdown:
If nine plus hours of NFL isn’t enough for you on a standard Sunday in the fall you can rejoice knowing that you can now have a solid twelve hours as Carolina and Tampa Bay play at 9:30am EST in merry old England. Each of these teams have been a little up and down and they both believe they have a chance to make a run at the postseason.
You can say whatever you want about Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson or anyone else being the MVP up to this point and you wouldn’t necessarily be wrong. If you haven’t watched what Christian McCaffrey has been doing though, not only are you missing out on some amazing talent, you’re also missing out on who the real MVP has been so far this season. (More on him in a moment). Let’s first take a look at backup QB Kyle Allen and see what he has done coming off of another solid start last week and now guiding the Panthers to their third straight win in the absence of weirdly dressed Cam Newton. It has been necessarily flashy, yet somehow Allen has won all four of his starts as a Carolina Panther in relief of Newton. Allen is not the most gifted passer in the league and is obviously still pretty raw in terms of experience, but the guy makes good decisions and obviously knows how to win. Head coach Ron Rivera definitely deserves some love for putting Allen in good situations and leaning on McCaffrey to carry the offense. This will be a big test for them however as Tampa has been ridiculously good stopping the run this season with a renewed toughness and some aggressive talent on the defensive side of the ball. For the Panthers to move the ball in this one Allen is going to have to get his wideouts involved down the field and needs to utilize Greg Olsen to keep the chains moving. Because the Bucs’ have been so good against the run, Carolina needs to try to get McCaffrey in space in the passing game, something they certainly can do.
Jameis Winston continued his up and down campaign last week with a game that was not horrible, yet not great quarterback play either. He’s had some nice games against the Panthers in the past and with the emergence of Chris Godwin opposite of Mike Evans they will take some shots down the field against a suspect Panthers secondary that will be likely missing safety Eric Reid. Both Winston and coach Bruce Arians talked about the importance of Winston spreading the ball around and not getting locked onto one receiver, something that has plagued him throughout his career. With the weapons on the outside there should also be ample opportunity to somehow get tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate into the fold catching passes, something they haven’t done yet.
These teams know each other well and they’re both probably a little underrated due to circumstances and inconsistencies so this should actually be a fun contest to watch if you’re not sleeping off a rough Saturday night. As per usual with the Bucs’, Jameis Winston will probably be the difference maker for one team or the other. Good Jameis or bad Jameis in England? We’re both leaning slightly towards Carolina because it’s under the key number of three.
Yanni’s Pick – Panthers -2 (Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21)
JJ’s Pick – Panthers -2 (Panthers 27, Buccaneers 20)
vs. 
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-5) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-5)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Washington Redskins -3.5
Over/Under: 41
Public Money Percentage: Washington 61%
The Breakdown:
The joke and truth of this game is tickets are less than attending the Miami Zoo on Sunday and are basically going for the price of a good six pack of beer. You can still probably expect no more than a few thousand people in the stands for the tank bowl when the winless Redskins visit the winless Dolphins. Is it better for one of these teams to win this game and avoid the embarrassment of continued losing, or keep chugging away on the plan for the first overall pick next year?
Case Keenum will get the nod for interim coach Bill Callahan which sure makes it seem like the Redskins want to win. It also speaks to how far behind Dwayne Haskins must be if they’re not willing to throw him in there at this point and against this team. One veteran who was not shy about discussing his happiness with former coach Jay Gruden’s departure was running back Adrian Peterson. The Dolphins have been worst in the league stopping the run, among other things, so even behind a porous Washington offensive line, this could and should be a big day for Peterson.
In a rare intelligent decision, the Dolphins will roll with Josh Rosen at quarterback the rest of the way. He’s played fairly decent in his opportunities so far and there are still questions about whether Rosen can play at this level as a franchise quarterback. Might as well give him half a season or so to see what the guy can do. The ironic thing is, it was tough to grade him behind a horrendous offensive line in Arizona, and that is something he is plagued with here as well. For Miami to have a chance here Rosen will need to be able to make some big plays through the air or at the very least in the screen game. Kenyan Drake is actually a quality back in the league, you’d just never know it based on his current situation.
There will most likely be as many people betting on this game as there will be in attendance, which is not very many. We sure as heck don’t have any action here, and we’re split on the cover, although we both like the under.
Yanni’s Pick – Dolphins +3.5 (Redskins 19, Dolphins 17)
JJ’s Pick – Redskins -3.5 (Redskins 20, Dolphins 16)
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-2)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -3
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 55%
The Breakdown:
A pair of 3-2 teams coming off of pretty easy victories face off in a conference game that could have big playoff implications down the line. The Eagles and Vikings both enter this contest with very tenuous feelings of confidence based on what they have going on. The Eagles are still banged up and will be without some key pieces of their team yet again this Sunday, while the Vikings seem like they are one Kirk Cousins three interception game away from having a full out team melt down. Winning will solve, or at least mask these problems for at least another week with a W, while the other could find themselves mired in a bit of a downward spiral.
This is one of the more interesting games to handicap as there are several things to take into consideration. You have an offensive minded coach in Philadelphia going against an old school defensive head coach in Minnesota. Both teams have run the ball well in recent weeks and feature offensive playmakers that can be both consistent and explosive. We already mentioned the Eagles injuries as DeSean Jackson, Ronald Darby, Timmy Jernigan are all still expected to inactive. And then there is that whole Kirk Cousins factor… Here’s what we know about Cousins, other than the fact that he’s very much on the hot seat and has taken a ton of deserved criticism this year. He is substantially better playing at home than on the road, advantage Vikings. However, his performances also fluctuate more than any other QB in the league between playing good teams and bad teams (ie: playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams). Advantage Eagles.
So which Kirk Cousins are we going to see on Sunday, the one who carves up poor teams and looks fantastic, or the one who looks absolutely lost and overmatched against quality opponents? We can’t say for sure, however here is what we do know. The Philadelphia Eagles defense is not just bad, they’re really bad. Even at full strength they’re probably only a middle of the pack unit, and without Darby and the defensive line a little thin they fall towards the bottom really quickly. Don’t let last week’s beatdown against the Luke Falk lead Jets in Philly throw you off, any team in that situation was going to look that impressive. They’ve done well as usual against the run so Dalvin Cook will have his work cut out for him, but it’s the matchups on the outside that will give the Eagles trouble. Cousins and Thielen bonded last week and Thielen had a huge day against a poor secondary. You can plan for more of that and the difference this week is Stefon Diggs could make a big appearance here and hit some potential home runs that the Eagles have routinely been struck with.
For Philadelphia the game plan is going to be pretty standard and pretty simple and that is to let Carson Wentz chuck it around the field and hope that they have more points than their opponent when the clock runs out. There is a slight noticeable difference however and that is the emergence of Jordan Howard as the featured running back in this offense. Even though Miles Sanders picked things up a bit after a slow start, Howard is just a more consistent back and seems to fit the running portion of what this team needs a little more. Tight end Zach Ertz was quiet last week outside of a second half touchdown against the strength of the Jets defense as we expected, and this is a game where he should see a lot of action. Alshon Jeffery looked solid in his return so even without Jackson stretching the field there is still enough firepower to score some points against this Viking defense. Speaking of that defense, it’s pretty darn good. The defensive line has played well, the linebackers are experienced and solid, and the secondary is one of the better in the league. Not a lot of chinks in the armor overall. The thing with this matchup is, the Eagles offensive line can potentially neutralize or at least slow down the Viking linemen. Even against good defenses, Wentz seems to be able to find ways to get the ball out and get it in the end zone.
The statistics lead you to lean under in this game, especially with a defense like the Vikings and a quarterback like Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia has not put up as many points on the road as they have at home over the past year and it will be loud in that stadium supporting the Minnesota defense. This one is a little bit of falling in love with the number versus the stats, but 44 is a relatively low total for teams that have offensive firepower, and one defense that is very suspect. To put it in perspective, the Bills and Titans total was less than a TD less than this one last week and those are two premier defenses and plodding offenses. There will be some punts in this game for certain and it won’t be an all out shootout. Here’s what we’re banking on: The Eagles will slow down Dalvin Cook putting the ball in Cousins’ hands through the passing game. Thielen and Diggs should own their matchups against the Eagles secondary allowing them to hit some big plays. The Eagles are good enough offensively that even against a strong Minnesota defense they should be able to keep things somewhat competitive. Both teams are in the top 10 in red zone TD efficiency so they’re able to punch it in for seven when they get close. All of this should add up to be enough to push this total to the over.
Yanni’s Pick – Eagles +3 (Vikings 26, Eagles 24)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -3 (Vikings 26, Eagles, 20)
vs. 
HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-1)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -4
Over/Under: 55.5
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 53%
The Breakdown:
If the Vikings and Eagles isn’t the game of the week then it’s definitely this contest between the red hot Texans offense and the temporarily slowed down Chiefs offense. Houston may have a slight edge in this one based on the key injuries that the Chiefs are saddled with, however it’s hard to picture the Chiefs losing two in a row at home.
Houston and quarterback DeShaun Watson looked unstoppable on offense last week, albeit against a very weak Atlanta Falcon defense. It was really the first time this season that they were explosive, consistent and spread the ball around for a complete sixty minutes. They will have a chance to repeat that performance against the Chiefs who have actually been respectable on defense up to this point. A key for Houston in this match will be offensive coordinator Tim Kelly’s ability to flex his game plan to his this opponent. With the success they had through the air against Atlanta it will be very tempting for them to drop back and air it out looking for big plays. The Colts put the blueprints on display for the rest of the league by working a power run game and dominating time of possession. Will the Texans be disciplined enough to grind through three yard carries on the ground or will they get antsy and start going full video game mode passing? At some point down the road Houston will need to lean on Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson so they’d be wise to give that a start in this game. With Chris Jones not playing on the KC defensive line, it further lends to that prospective game plan.
A much needed boost for Kansas City could be the return of speedster Tyreek Hill at the WR position as it looks like he is heading towards his first action in over a month. It couldn’t come at a better time Sammy Watkins is sidelined with a hamstring injury and their offensive line is missing two starters in addition to Patrick Mahomes being a little hobbled himself. The Chiefs got some nice play out of Demarcus Robinson and rookie Mecole Hardman in his absence but it is clear they need Hill to make key plays and draw coverage away from tight end Travis Kelce. We’re going to stay on the Chiefs bandwagon for now and expect Mahomes and company to rebound offensively in this game, although there is a big “if”. That is if the Chiefs can contain J.J. Watt and the rush of the Texans and allow Mahomes the time he needs to scan the field and find his playmakers. Normally with these two teams that would seem very doable for KC, but with their offensive line playing backups it’s definitely not guaranteed.
Vegas is expecting a lot of points in this game and they’re probably going to be right. A healthy KC team most likely wins this game by 10 points, however the key injuries mentioned could have a definite impact on this game. Watson tends to shine in games like this, but will it be enough? Kansas City isn’t losing two in a row at home and with their explosiveness, we’re comfortable laying the points even past the key field goal number.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -4 (Chiefs 36, Texans 27)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -4 (Chiefs 35, Texans 30)
vs. 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-3) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-1)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -1
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 60%
The Breakdown:
One of the harder games to handicap this week is the Saints and Jaguars in Jacksonville. These teams obviously don’t know each other all that well and the two quarterbacks that we thought would be playing in this game to start the season are both watching on the sidelines. Both the Saints Teddy Bridgewater and the Jaguars Gardner Minshew have greatly exceeded expectations and with each passing week are building a reputation as a firm starting quarterback in the league.
The unspoken goal of the Saints was to hold the fort down in the absence of Drew Brees and try to go 2-4 or 3-3 so they could position themselves to make a run when their signal caller returned. Here they are now with goals of being in the NFC driver’s seat when Brees returns and wondering if it’s possible for Bridgewater to be the heir apparent at the quarterback position. This will be a tough test for the Saints on the road against a defense that has shown the ability to get after opposing quarterbacks. Whether or not All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey suits up for this game will play a huge factor in the outcome. It’s rare that one player that is not a quarterback can make that big of an impact for a team but Ramsey really does. They are able to change their entire defensive scheme if he is able to go and should be able to slow down Michael Thomas who hasn’t skipped a beat since Bridgewater took over. We talked about a key for the Jags, however the Saints have their own question mark as well as their dynamic do-it-all running back Alvin Kamara is also questionable to play. It looks like he will probably give it a go, but you have to wonder if he will be effective? If Ramsey plays and Kamara doesn’t this game tilts drastically to Jacksonville.
Gardner Minshew will look to keep his strong play going as 35,000 Minshew mustaches will be given to the fans at TIAA Bank stadium to support the town’s new darling. The Saints have played strong defense overall although they normally don’t get quite the push that they get when they’re playing at home. The Jags game plan in this match is to try to keep Leonard Fournette running hard and play smart football in the passing game. D.J. Chark is turning into a solid weapon for Minshew but the Saints will looking to double him in the passing game to force someone else to beat them. The Saints play as much man to man coverage as any team in the league and they match up favorable against the Jaguars skill positions. A sneak play to watch is Gardner Minshew running the ball. He hasn’t done a ton of running, but he is more than capable of ripping off big runs and with the Saints defenders locked in man coverage there will be opportunities that he’ll need to take if the Jags want to pull out a home win.
It’s too tough to call this one until we know for sure about the statuses of Kamara and Ramsey. We’ll give a slight nod to the Jaguars at home under the assumption the Saints have to lose something while Brees is out, right? We may jump on this one after the inactive report comes out if it slides the advantage to one side or the other.
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars -1 (Jaguars 23, Saints 20)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars -1 (Jaguars 27, Saints 23)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-1) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-3)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -1
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 60%
The Breakdown:
The Seattle Seahawks come into this game on a roll playing really good football while the Cleveland Browns were embarrassed on national TV a week ago. A tale of two quarterbacks as Russell Wilson is receiving praise for playing at an MVP level while Baker Mayfield is taking a lot of heat for his inconsistent play. Is this one as straightforward as it seems or do the sportsbooks have something up their sleeves here?
Outside of one “off” game Russell Wilson has basically been able to do whatever needs to do to score when needed and keep winning. A big reason is the consistently strong play of the Seahawks running game and improved play along the offensive line. Wilson has made his share of usual highlight reel plays, however most of their success has been strong efforts from Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny setting up big plays in the passing game. Tyler Lockett certainly isn’t an unknown weapon, but he is evolving into a strong number one received in the league with good play week after week. Pete Carroll mentioned Will Dissly at the start of this season as someone he had high expectations for and Dissly has not disappointed. The Browns have not been great against speedy wide receivers and will be missing at least one of their starting corners. Lockett should be in store for some big plays if Wilson has time to get it to him downfield or can create some plays outside of the pocket. Seattle OC Brian Schottenheimer really should be focused on running Chris Carson early and often as the Browns have struggled tremendously in stopping the run. San Francisco burned them for well over 200 yards last week. This Browns defense is built a lot luck the Colt defenses of the Peyton Manning era, from the outside in. They have speed and can get after the quarterback, however can be pushed around a bit up the middle. The Seahawks have a clear advantage in that area so this could be one of those situations where Russell Wilson only throws the ball 20 times or so.
A little trouble in paradise for the highly hyped up Cleveland offense as Baker Mayfield is taking a lot of heat and Odell Beckham, Jr. is starting to show some frustration in not getting the ball and being able to make big plays. If you’re a Browns fan you’d like to believe a trip home would be what the doctor ordered, however they’ve been up and down both on the road and at home. Falling behind early against the 49ers, the Browns had to somewhat abandon Nick Chubb and the running game. As fun as it is to think about fantasy football with OBJ, Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield, this team’s offense wins and loses with their effectiveness of Chubb and the ground game. Just as the Seahawks need to establish Chris Carson, the Browns really need to get Chubb out of the gate strong. If they can play with the lead and get the Seattle defense off balance they’ll be able to hit some knockout punches with OBJ and the skill players. While the running game is important, the most important battle in this one for the Browns is having their less than stellar offensive line hold up against the Seahawk pass rush. Jadeveon Clowney seems to be finding his rhythm in Seattle and has been a big play machine, while the return of Ziggy Ansah provides another rusher off the edge. If Seattle is in the backfield Mayfield is going to struggle again. It’s going out on a pretty big limb to think the Browns will be able to slow down the Seahawk pass rush, but if they’re going to win they absolutely have to.
The public is on Seattle and it sure seems like that makes the most sense. You’ve got a legitimately sound team and elite QB in Russell Wilson against a 2nd year leader struggling behind a line that isn’t giving him a lot of help. If these teams played 10 times, the Seahawks would probably win eight, however they’re playing once on Sunday. The Browns are desperate to get things straightened out, and you have to wonder how focused Seattle will be with the early start across the country. We’re taking separate sides on this one with JJ playing the numbers, trends and better team, while Yanni is going to take a slight chance fading the public and seeing if the Browns can come away with a win.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns +1 (Browns 28, Seahawks 27)
JJ’s Pick – Seahawks -1 (Seahawks 24, Browns 21)
vs. 
CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-5) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-2)
Sunday – October 13th – 1:00pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -11
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 60%
The Breakdown:
The Bengals and Ravens have played some very competitive and exciting games over the past decade as these games have had the feeling of a 15 round fight going back and forth with the last man standing taking the win. This game doesn’t seem to have that kind of feel and the 11ish point spread would indicate that Las Vegas doesn’t think this game is going to be competitive.
Andy Dalton is taking a beating both in the Cincinnati media and behind a swiss cheese offensive line on Sundays. We’ve said it all season, the Bengals are a definite case of what might have been on offense. It would have been fun to see the trip of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and John Ross behind a solid offensive line and what would have been a stronger running game. Alas, we’re left with fans questioning Dalton’s future with the team and wondering about first year head coach Zac Taylor. They get a little bit of a break against this specific Ravens team as this group has struggled in their own right on the defensive side of the ball. Being at home the Ravens should find themselves in a nice spot to have a good defensive game against a depleted Cincinnati group. The Bengals will again try to build around RB Joe Mixon and work the passing game around him, however it’s become a common scene watching Mixon ducking tacklers 2 yards deep in the backfield. Tyler Boyd who has been one of the few bright spots for this team and has feasted on the Ravens in his young career could be in for a tough day though as he’ll be locked up with cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is playing some really good football this season. If you’re a fantasy player, Boyd could rack up some yards if the Bengals are playing from behind, but don’t look for them to be meaningful plays in the game.
Lamar Jackson has cooled off after his hot start and he’ll be looking to capitalize on the favorable matchup against the Bengals defense and specifically their below average linebacking corp. Jackson is making an effort to move the chains from the pocket which is smart, but if he needs or wants to run in this one he should have plenty of success. You’ve gotta believe the Bengals will see a heavy dose of running back Mark Ingram and he is the type of physical back that Cincinnati has really struggled to slow down. If we could fast forward to the end of this game it seems like one where the Ravens will have 38+ minutes of possession and control the overall tempo. It’s still unknown whether or not this Ravens team is a legitimate contender in the AFC and we won’t have that answer after this game, although they’ll likely look like a powerhouse in a game where they’ll completely overmatch the Bengals.
The smart bet here is to probably take the heavy points, but you can make the argument that this game has blowout written all over it. It’s almost a lock that the Ravens will be covering that 11 at some point during the game, the real question is will they cover it when the clock expires? If you want to roll with the Ravens, be mindful that a backdoor cover could very much be a possibility.
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals +11 (Ravens 28, Bengals 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals +11 (Ravens 28, Bengals 18)
vs. 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (4-0) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-2)
Sunday – October 13th – 4:05pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -3
Over/Under: 50
Public Money Percentage: San Francisco 51%
The Breakdown:
An NFC West contest that is sure to have some important implications down the road within the division. It’s important for both teams for sure, however clearly more important for the home team as the Rams don’t want to fall too far off the pace. The 49ers looked sharp coming off of their bye and now have the tough assignment of a short week road trip. We were high on the Niners’ in the preaseason and they’re proving us right so far. This could be a true milestone test to see if they’re a true contender or still building their program under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers did exactly what they wanted to do and what they’re built to do against the Browns and will look to do the same against the Rams. That is run the ball, dominate the line of scrimmage and mix in timely passes to George Kittle and their speedy receivers. Jimmy Garroppolo has looked sharp when he’s needed to and while his numbers may not be on the Patrick Mahomes level he is playing good ball. Not to get off topic, but did anyone catch Booger McFarland calling out Garroppolo for not playing great on Monday as they flashed his numbers at the start of the fourth quarter of like a 22 of 28, 260 yards and 2 TDs. That may not be amazing, but that’s pretty damn good and what almost any coach in the league would be thrilled to have. We try not to bash the commentators and analysts but man it’s hard to listen to McFarland. How he got that job and how there isn’t anyone better available is an absolute mystery. As we digress, let’s talk about a key injury on the defensive side of the ball for the Rams and that is Aqib Talib who will not be playing. Normally this would be a big loss, however with the way San Francisco plays this may not hurt that all that much. The big boys are important in this one as the Niners’ need to be physical with Aaron Donald and the Rams front seven to keep their running game rolling.
A little bit of bad news out of LA as it looks like Todd Gurley will be sitting this game out with a listed quad injury. It’s really starting to feel like Gurley may never fully rebound to be the player he was for a short stretch, as we certainly hope that does not end up being the case. Malcom Brown will get the start with one thing being very clear for the Rams offense. When they don’t run the ball well it effects every part of their offense negatively. On paper Jared Goff has a tough matchup against this stingy San Francisco defense and he could very well struggle, but it’s also very possible he shows up big as he tends to do when he plays at home. As is the case most weeks the Rams have an advantage with their three wide receiver set so LA will need big days from Cupp, Cooks and Woods to get points on the scoreboard. Probably the most important question in this game is can the Rams offensive line which has not been as strong as it was just a season ago hold up against the fierce 49er defensive line?
This line moved down from LA -4 to -3 quickly and to be honest seems like it should really be more like a -2 or even -1. This is a tough spot for San Francisco but we can’t pass up getting a FG with a team that’s playing as well as they are.
Yanni’s Pick – 49ers +3 (49ers 24, Rams 23)
JJ’s Pick – 49ers +3 (49ers 26, Rams 24)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (1-4) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-3-1)
Sunday – October 13th – 4:05pm
Spread: Atlanta Falcons -2
Over/Under: 51
Public Money Percentage: Atlanta 58%
The Breakdown:
Atlanta at Arizona is about as relevant as the Washington/Miami game with the big difference being there are actually some reasons to possibly tune into this one. Kyler Murray is obviously a draw, and fantasy footballers have some options as usual with these teams. Other than that, it seems like two different things going on, the Falcons in decline as their time with Matt Ryan and a Super Bowl wind seems to be winding down, and the Cardinals ascending with their rookie quarterback looking to build for the future.
If you’ve followed the Falcons at all this season you’ll note their offense is scoring as much as it ever has under Matt Ryan and guys like Mohammed Sanu and Austin Hooper are joining Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with some nice numbers. What you also probably noticed is that these are almost always coming in the second half of games where they have been trailing big due to poor first half execution, and a ridiculously bad defense. Their offense should find some success against a Cardinal defense that has been pretty poor as well, although Atlanta will need to give Ryan time to throw against the Arizona’s veteran pass rush due of Suggs and Jones. That’s the single biggest matchup to watch in this game and the winner of that battle will likely end up the winner of this game.
Kyler Murray has shown some nice things in his early play and fortunately he should have both David Johnson and Christian Kirk in the lineup after missing some practice early in the week. Opposing defenses thus far have tried to keep Murray in the pocket to take away his running making him one dimensional. The Falcons don’t have that luxury as they haven’t really been able to stop the run or the pass and will continue to struggle throughout this season. We got burned big time last week playing a Falcon under so we won’t go back to that well just yet, however something just seems like this game is going to be a little bit more of a grinder than the 51 total would suggest. There may actually be a few punts in this game which sounds absolutely crazy.
If you’re comfortable betting on either of these teams than by all means have at it. The line here seems about right overall as both teams have issues and aren’t going anywhere this season. Yanni is going with the veteran QB and JJ is taking the rookie at home. Neither of us will be surprised if the other team covers so we’ll just have to wait and see.
Yanni’s Pick – Falcons -2 (Falcons 26, Cardinals 23)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +2 (Cardinals 24, Falcons 23)
vs. 
DALLAS COWBOYS (3-2) at NEW YORK JETS (0-4)
Sunday – October 13th – 4:25pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: Dallas 64%
The Breakdown:
It’s only been two weeks since conversations about how dominant the Dallas Cowboys are and how they’re the favorite in the NFC to play in the Super Bowl. It’s hard to believe that it’s only been two weeks as it seems like a lifetime ago after their back to back losses. If you want our opinion, the truth is somewhere in the middle between the critics who said the Cowboys were a bad team that beat up on weak competition to start the season, and the Dallas believers who think they’re the team to beat in the conference. Week six takes them to New York to take on the winless Jets team who is excited to welcome back their starting quarterback Sam Darnold after his month long hiatus due to mono. There is no question the return of Darnold will provide a spark to the offense and the entire team as they’ll now believe they can compete and win. His return should also help LeVeon Bell as teams will now have to at least somewhat respect the passing game freeing him up for some running room in the box. When you look at how the Cowboys were gashed a week ago by Aaron Jones, you have to imagine that the Jets will be looking for Bell to run between the tackles a lot in this game. Whether or not the Cowboys can make adjustments and play tougher at the line of scrimmage will be a key in this game.
Dallas on offense got behind early last week which is not the way this team is built to win. It effectively took Ezekiel Elliott out of the game and put it on the shoulders of Dak Prescott and the passing game. This passing game is built on play action passing and being able to disguise when and how they throw the ball. The Cowboys need to establish Zeke early and often and make sure they don’t fall behind early again this week. Fortunately for Dallas the Jets prized defense free agent C.J. Mosley will miss yet another game which should mean a big day for Elliott up the middle. With eleven players on the field, one guy certainly doesn’t mean everything, but you can’t deny how much drastically different the Jets defense looked with Mosley in the lineup and since he’s been out. Against GB the Cowboys were beaten up front on the offensive line which is not something that generally happens with their group. The losses of Tyron Smith and Lael Collins proved too much for them to overcome. It’s still too early to see who will be available for Dallas in this game so whether or not they can have success is still a bit of a question mark. With the return of Michael Gallup at WR, Prescott should be able to find some matchups he likes on the outside with Gallup and Amari Cooper. The Jets have been good at safety and in the middle of the field so don’t expect much from Randall Cobb and tight end Jason Witten.
Sam darnold will no doubt make the Jets a more competitive team, but is there really any chance that Dallas loses a third straight game and to the NY Jets? We’ve seen the Cowboys beat up on the lowly teams in the league and they’ll get another opportunity to do that here. If C.J. Mosley were playing this would be a good opportunity to grab the touchdown with the Jets, but without him it’s going to tough for them to slow down Zeke and the Boys’. A little too much uncertainty for us we’ll play both sides of the fence.
Yanni’s Pick – Jets +7 (Cowboys 26, Jets 20)
JJ’s Pick – Cowboys -7 (Cowboys 27, Jets 13)
vs. 
TENNESSEE TITANS (2-3) at DENVER BRONCOS (1-4)
Sunday – October 13th – 4:25pm
Spread: Denver Broncos -2
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Tennessee 51%
The Breakdown:
On the opposite side of the country the Tennessee Titans will try to get back on track going into the Mile High air in a tough matchup that either team could easily win. With all due respect to the Browns, the Titans have been the toughest team to figure out this season as they look unstoppable one week, and very average the next. That’s kind of what we’ve come to expect with the Titans over the years, yet this season seems to be even more noticeable. Tennessee has some things working in their favor however in this game. First is the fact that they’ve ironically played quite a bit better on the road than at home so we have to figure the road trip won’t be a deterrent to their potential success. Secondly, they strength of their team is in the trenches, which just so happens to also be the weakness of the Denver Broncos. The Titans should be giving Derrick Henry 25 carries in this game and their big guys should be able to wear down what’s been a pretty soft Denver defense. Look for some nice games from Tennessee tight ends Delanie Walker and Johnnu Smith in this one as well.
Give Denver a ton of credit for going into Los Angeles last week and taking it to the Chargers. They really outplayed the Chargers in all three phases of the game which allowed Vic Fangio to get his first victory and keep the ever so slight hope for the Broncos season alive for at least another week. Joe Flacco seems to be settling in and actually developing a good rapport with Cortland Sutton at the WR position. He’s still got veteran Emmanuel Sanders on the opposite side as well giving him options when they need to throw. That will be a tough assignment against the Titans though as their secondary is fast, athletic and not afraid to hit. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have both been running hard and have been fairly productive despite the Denver’s slow start. The Titans were stout for almost the entire game last week against the Bills on the defense before allowing Frank Gore and the Bills to impose their will on the final drive. A big key for the Broncos in this game is giving Flacco time to throw from the pocket. The matchup between the Denver offensive line and Tennessee’s front seven is the most critical decider in the game. The old cliche battle in the trenches and turnover margin will truly decide the outcome of this game.
Yanni’s Pick – Titans +2 (Titans 20, Broncos 17)
JJ’s Pick – Titans +2 (Broncos 17, Titans 16)
vs. 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-4) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-3)
Sunday – October 13th – 8:20pm
Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Over/Under: 42
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 55%
The Breakdown:
No team has suffered more important injury casualties than the LA Chargers, yet it’s the Steelers who enter this game behind the 8 ball due to injuries to both their first and second string quarterbacks. Don’t forget they also traded Josh Hobbs in the preseason. Can they go across the country and win a football game with Devlin Hodges at quarterback or will the Chargers get a much needed win to appease head coach Anthony Lynn?
If you had said that Devlin Hodges would be going to LA to start against the Chargers at the beginning of the season you probably could have set the point spread at two touchdowns rather than the one touchdown it is today. The biggest reason is the fore mentioned injuries the Chargers are dealing with on both sides of the ball. The loss of Derwin James continues to plague the secondary and Melvin Ingram being hobbled hurts the core of their pass rush. We’ve watched very average offenses have their way with the Charger defense which is exactly the opposite of what we witnessed with this team a year ago. Pittsburgh has proved that they can mix and match quarterbacks with the rest of the pieces they have and still be competitive. At some point James Conner needs to have that breakout type game that he was having routinely a season ago. This would be an ideal time for the Steelers to have that happen on Sunday as they’ll need him to come up big in order to keep this game close. For Hodges to have success the Steelers cannot get down big early and must not be one dimensional. If they can stay balanced, they trust Hodges enough to manage the game effectively. Fortunately for them, the Chargers have gotten off to slow starts so if that trend continues they’ll have a shot. Pittsburgh’s game plan is likely to keep this game as tight as they can into the fourth quarter to give their team an opportunity to steal a win on the road.
Melvin Gordon re-joined the Chargers last week and there were a few small glimpses of the Gordon/Ekeler potential. Philip Rivers has not played great the last few weeks and it’s a fair question to wonder whether the lack of a proven tight end is really hurting his ability to pick up first downs and in the red zone? LA hopes to get Hunter Henry back soon, however he won’t be in uniform for this Sunday’s prime time game.
Two teams that both had playoff and Super Bowl aspirations when the season started are now simply fighting to stay in the hunt before the midway point in the year. There is absolutely no reason that Philip Rivers and this team should lose at home (even though there will be more black and yellow in the stands) to a third string quarterback making his first start. He won’t, however this game will stay tighter than a lot of people might thing. The line seems about right on the money so go ahead and flip a coin here.
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers +6.5 (Chargers 24, Steelers 19)
JJ’s Pick – Steelers +6.5 (Chargers 23, Steelers 17)
vs. 
DETROIT LIONS (2-1-1) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-1)
Monday – October 14th – 8:15pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -4
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 58%
The Breakdown:
A quietly fun Monday Night Football showdown in the NFC North as the Lions travel to Lambeau Field to take on a re-energized Packer squad. Matt Patricia has the Lions playing hard and there are a lot of things to be encouraged about if you’re a fan of the silver and blue. Matt LaFleur has his defense playing well and finally got the running game rumbling last week in their upset win in Dallas. An important game in the standings as the Packers can give themselves a small cushion or the Lions can find themselves near the top.
Carson Palmer said earlier this week that he thought Matthew Stafford was the most talented quarterback in the NFL. Not quite sure that we’d go that far, but you do have to respect what Stafford has done in his career and this season. After years of talking about it, the Lions are finally trying to get some balance with a running game and Kerryon Johnson and it’s helping Stafford and the offense. They’ll need to run the ball in this game as the Packers are more vulnerable to a run game than they are through the air as they’ve been able to generate a solid pass rush with their Smith combination on the edges. Detroit will need to be patient on offense and be content with moving the markers 10 yards at a time. Fortunately for them they have the receivers to do that as they’ll welcome back Danny Amendola in the slot and work Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones on intermediate routes. It would be a big boost if they could have their first round draft pick T.J. Hockenson on the field, however as of Friday had not cleared concussion protocol so he may miss the game. Speaking of injuries, the Packers will be without their impressive rookie safety Darnell Savage which should help them a bit. Stafford is a rhythm quarterback so the Lions would be wise to get the ball out of his hands quickly in this game and work towards those 7+ play drives.
We all know about Aaron Rodgers and his impressive numbers playing at home so not a lot to share there. It is worth noting that his number one target Davante Adams will miss his second straight game this week. It didn’t hurt them against Dallas as they got up early and punished the Cowboys with a power running game. Expect to see a concerted effort by the Pack’ to get Jones and Jamaal Williams running hard again against this Detroit defense that has been hit hard by opposing runners so far this season. It doesn’t help that they won’t have former Packer DT Mike Daniels in the lineup as he’s been ruled out. With Davante Adams not going you’d have to imagine Matt Patricia is going to load the box and try to force Rodgers to become one dimensional. That might seem like a dangerous strategy, but when you look at the Lion’s strengths in the secondary it really makes a lot of sense. Probably a little foolishly we’re still waiting to see if Jimmy Graham ever has another dominant, or really even impactful game in his career again. Ryan Ramczyk has been playing great at the tackle position and if the rest of the Packers line can win their matchups, Green Bay could have another game like they did against Dallas.
The Lions are still an undervalued team at this point, unfortunately they’re in a tough spot playing Rodgers in a night game in Lambeau. This game sure feels like it could be close and possibly a field goal contest when it’s all said and done. This is really a pure numbers grab as it’s really tough to go against Rodgers at home in the division. Four is a solid number though for a team that is playing good football so we’ll see what this Lions team is made of.
