Thursday presents another healthy college hoops slate, and we’re ready to roll with handicaps for two early-evening matchups. Conference play has a tendency to reduce the number of large mismatches, sometimes making point spreads irrelevant. Last night was a good example of this, where both of our Road Dogs got the outright win. Let’s dive into these two plays with the Road Dog Report for 1/9/2020.
Wednesday’s handicap made the case for Cal Baptist continuing to be overlooked by the market despite their ongoing success. We took +1 early in the morning and this game closed around +3 with no lack of support for Bakersfield. Brandon Boyd’s 23 points led the Lancers to an 8-point victory in the late-night play. Omaha’s Matt Pile did not outshine North Dakota’s Marlon Stewart, but the Mavericks hung onto a 4-point win to stay 2-0 in Summit League play.
(605) St. Peter’s @ Siena -8.5
The 5-6 St. Peter’s Peacocks put their 2-0 MAAC record on the line at the 6-6 Siena Saints this evening. St. Peter’s is fresh off of a dominant win over Marist, while Siena returns home after a loss at Rider. The Saints should be brimming with confidence at the Times Union Center where they are an undefeated 6-0 on their home floor.
St. Peter’s has been surprising at times, as reflected in their 3-3 record as an underdog. Their last-second upset at Iona to kick off MAAC play was aided by the coming-out game for freshman guard Darryl Banks III. Banks put up 25 points capped off by his coast-to-coast winning layup in that dramatic game. He subsequently came back down to earth with a more modest game in their last time out. The Peacocks have been lifted by different players in various games, making it difficult to gameplan for a particular threat. They’ve been quite successful from behind the arc, shooting 40.6% from downtown this season.
Siena, on the other hand, has a clear core of four impact players. 6’8″ forward Elijah Burns should be a handful tonight, but it is 6’6″ guard Manny Camper who has provided major versatility for the Saints. He is a beast on the glass, consistently putting up double-doubles for this Siena squad and could be a key mismatch against the Peacocks. My core ratings give a 4-point advantage to Siena.
On the Money
The adage of the point spread being the great equalizer is quite relevant with these two teams. Siena’s 6-0 straight up record at home has a different light against the spread. They are 3-3 ATS here and have not covered their last three as a home favorite, despite winning them outright. In fact, Siena has covered only one of their last eight games.
St. Peter’s has been strong against the number this season, posting an 8-3 ATS record. They are 5-1 ATS on the road and have covered all five of their spots as Road Dogs with two outright wins. While St. Peter’s may not have the firepower to keep up with Siena’s big four, the +8.5 is healthy enough for me to put my money on.
(651) Coastal Carolina @ Texas State -4
10-6 Coastal Carolina faces Sun Belt foe Texas State and their 8-8 record tonight in San Marcos. The Chanticleers look to improve their 3-2 league mark against the Bobcats and their 1-4 conference record. Coastal has been quite good in this spot; 4-2 straight up as a dog and 3-1 away from home. Texas State is no pushover at home, though, defending their turf in six of eight games at the Strahan Coliseum.
The Chants continue to get solid production out of guard Devante Jones, although freshman guard Keishawn Brewton has stepped up in many games this season. Brewton may not be the most efficient shooter on this Coastal Carolina team, but he can generate opportunities to impact the game. This is a good rebounding team who may be somewhat undersized against this Bobcat lineup.
Texas State has a clear leader in 6’5″ senior guard Nijal Pearson. Pearson has taken this Bobcat team on his shoulders despite their current 2-6 funk. He has averaged 24 points per game in their last three games, taking the lion’s share of shots. Nijal creates action and gets to the free throw line regularly, where he knocks down 79.1% of his shots. He can be loose with the ball at times, which plays into Coastal’s proficiency in getting steals (to the tune of just over 8 per game). Pearson needs to be on point and not turn the ball over excessively if the Bobcats want to snap out of their cold run tonight.
I asked the question in my 12/21/2019 handicap whether Coastal Carolina would rebound after a disappointing loss to Troy. The Troy loss cut short their four-game win streak at the time. My question was answered with a win and cover at South Alabama, which started their current 3-1 run.
On the Money
Coastal is 7-7 ATS on the season, including 2-4 ATS away from home. However, they have capitalized as Road Dogs by winning both of those games outright. The Chants covered five of their last seven games and are in a prime spot tonight.
Texas State has not covered their last six games and is 4-9-1 ATS this year. Adding insult to injury, the Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS as home favorites and find themselves in this spot yet again. I make them a 3-point dog to Coastal Carolina on a neutral floor. This a heavy number for a team that has struggled in this situation, so I will take the +4 without hesitation with a Chanticleers squad that is performing well both ATS and straight up.
