I guess playing the bullpen volatility game was the move after all. Lack of execution squandered a shot at sneaking away with the D-backs first 5 innings team total. That was extra frustrating since Darvish was expectedly ripe for the picking. In a Groundhog Day scenario I would bet the team total again at +110, though I should be much less sold on the side. Those Padres can mash after all. It felt bad for a minute but we have day baseball on deck and a couple handicaps loaded in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-5-2023. NOTE: No breakdown on Thursday due to work schedule, so I’ll be back Friday morning before hitting the highway.
First, I have to say just how good the action has been so far this season. Sure there’s some oddball stuff here and there with the pitch clock. That will get worked out over time. But overall I love the base stealing dynamic and the pace of place is a relief. I’m optimistic that 2023 will be a good season for watching MLB (and for my bankroll). BOL with your wagers today!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CHICAGO CUBS @ CINCINNATI REDS (CIN/CHC -110, 8)
The “vaunted” Cincinnati Reds bullpen finally showed its weakness last night. How will this group respond when put to the test this afternoon in the second game of this early-season NL Central series? Cincy’s 6th inning meltdown extended from the trifecta of stumbling relievers to their fielders as the Cubbies pulled away from a 2-2 tie with 6 runs. The rest, as they say, was history. If there is any positive to shake out from last night’s beating, Reds closer Alexis Diaz and setup man Derek Law are rested and ready today. Everyone else, well, they’ve been working overtime lately.
In terms of lineups, the Reds continue to exceed expectations out of the gates this year. Legends like Jason Vosler and TJ Friedl are mashing at GABP while the Jonathan India comeback appears to be alive and well. Chicago’s offense is grinding along on plan, setting up around 9-12% more efficient than Cincy’s without respect to current form. If you’re a believer in the Reds’ hot hand at the plate, that advantage flips sides. One key element that will be a factor this afternoon is the Cubs’ bullpen availability. Adbert Azolay took the lion’s share of workload in relief of Hayden Wesneski and created a scenario where essentially all other relievers are fairly fresh after Keegan Thompson carried the load on Monday.
M Stroman (R) vs. H Greene (R)
So what will unfold before the calls to the bullpen are made? 23-year-old Hunter Greene makes his second start of the season after a short Opening Day appearance. 8 strikeouts and 5 hits over 3.1 innings created a wacky 8.10 ERA and 5.03 FIP/2.1 xFIP. Pittsburgh’s .667 BABIP made the kid labor and led to an early hook. While I don’t expect that extreme of an outing in this one, Greene is at risk of not making it through the 5th inning again. Even a 5 IP start exposes the Cincinnati bullpen to 4 full innings after heavy usage to begin the series. Innings 5-7 will be the true test of this weary group today.
Opposing Hunter is veteran righty Marcus Stroman, who is on a mission to be more durable and extend his outings in 2023. So far, so good. It wasn’t until Stro’s fourth start last season that he went 6 full innings. Marcus hit that mark on Opening Day against Milwaukee to begin the year. 5+ is not out of the question today unless Cincy’s hot bats continue to burn. Take away his 8 Ks to open the season and the indicators of an effective ground ball contact pitcher are still there. That is key at Great American Ball Park, especially on a nice warm day like today. I’m still of the opinion that Stro and Greene are generally on par despite their differing styles. But once these guys hand the ball over to the bullpens, which group would you rather back?
WAGER: Cubs -106 (2.12u)
This is a spot where the market has a little something for backers of either side this morning. Chicago as a -106 dog or even -110 pick ’em is very good value according to my handicap. With both pitchers near equal footing, the matter of bullpen disparity really starts to take shape in the latter innings. I’m less of a fan of the first 5 inning approach for that reason. Then again, I had that sort of thing backwards in yesterday’s featured handicap.
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (TBR -255, 8)
S McClanahan (L) vs. P Corbin (L)
Has Patrick Corbin become the new poster boy of pitchers to blindly fade? For some, absolutely. It’s in my nature to approach no-brainers like this with skepticism but here we are again with Corbin facing a very capable lineup on a well-rounded team with playoff aspirations. Much like Atlanta on Opening Day, all the signs point towards the Rays walking away with this one handily. Bookmakers hung the line around the magical -250 mark where lopsided matchups are priced.
Washington’s underachieving lineup finally broke out last night with a 6-spot – yet it somehow was not enough to hold off Tampa Bay’s late-inning charge in a 10-6 loss. Shane McClanahan picking up where he left off in 2022 presents a very tough uphill battle for the Nationals. That’s an obvious statement. As for the differential between him and Corbin, I’m looking at 1.25-2 runs of FIP. That’s about as extreme as it gets. And with a 3-4% offensive premium from the warm temps and steady breeze out to center, the Rays’ offensive advantage should not be adversely affected in this sense.
Bullpen and fielding edges should hold true in this contest as well. Tampa Bay’s relief unit has been used very effectively this season and should not be overly restricted this afternoon. Washington, on the other hand, will need to roll back-end guys Harvey, Edwards, and Finnegan into working a third outing in the last four days or lean heavily on their inexperienced bulk relievers. Both situations may manifest if Corbin truly flops in the early innings. This is not a great recipe for the Nats and the price clearly reflects this.
WAGER: Rays Double Result -130 (1.3u)
WAITING FOR: Rays First 5 Innings Markets
The fact that the Rays have a day off tomorrow before returning home to face Oakland helps their cause immensely. Otherwise, I would have more concern that manager Kevin Cash rests key players like Wander Franco and Ramdy Arozarena since they’ve played in all five games so far this season. I am waiting for more books to open their first 5 innings markets this morning to look at a team total or other way to fade Patrick Corbin and take advantage of Shane McClanahan.
Heading for Home
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