Happy Easter weekend everyone! Wednesday’s rainout in Cincy left us with a small 1-unit win as the grind rolls along on Good Friday. It’s almost time for me to hit the road, but first a quick solo shot is on the docket with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-7-2023. I’ll be back on Monday after the holiday before hopping on the golf course. Until then, BOL and enjoy the Masters, Bristol Dirt Race, and all the MLB action ahead.
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (CHW -130, 8.5)
The cool side of spring welcomes this interleague series opener at PNC Park with temperatures right around 50 degrees this afternoon. It’s an interesting matchup between a team I am long with season futures and a team I am short. Those are long-run expectations and obviously each game gets weighed on its own merits. Case in point, this contest features an interesting dynamic as the Jimenez-less White Sox square off against the hittable veteran left-hander Rich Hill.
First and foremost, this is a spot that favors a lineup with clear strength against southpaws. Eloy’s latest trip to the IL diminishes this potency but the ChiSox still offer lefty-hitting mainstays like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Andrew Vaughn. Cooler weather aside, Chicago pencils out as a plus 15-20% offense in this situation. Flip that around to a Pittsburgh squad that is lagging slightly at the dish so far in the young season – even against right-handed pitching, which should be a relative strength of theirs. So there is somewhere around a 10% margin between the Pirates’ performance to date and where I expect them to be.
L Giolito (R) vs. R Hill (L)
Is Pittsburgh’s upside potential enough to throw a monkey wrench into a Chicago’s bounceback hopes? That’s always a possibility. Lucas Giolito’s bid to get back on track after a meh 2022 got off to a decent start against Houston. His hard contact boogeyman from last year did not trip him up too badly and today’s prospects line up similarly. The Pirates have produced one of the lowest hard contact rates against right-handed pitching this season. Granted, they have plenty of room for upside in this sense but a grindy, small ball approach is the way to attack Lucas after his rough .340 BABIP campaign. So there’s that.
The other side of the ledger presents the crafty, but vulnerable, lefty veteran Rich Hill. His opener in Cincinnati featured 3 runs in 5 innings on two long balls. The 7 K/2 BB split is very uncharacteristic of the 43-year-old who hasn’t sniffed a 30% K rate since he left the Dodgers in 2019. Take that with a grain of salt – the White Sox have a low 17.6% strikeout rate against lefties in the early goings, picking up where they left off last season.
My baseline comparison of these two starters gives Lucas Giolito around a 3/4 run premium to FIP over Rich Hill. But their ranges do cross paths. One end of this probable spectrum gives Hill a slight advantage while the other end doubles Gio’s edge to 1.5 runs. So underdog backers do have something to bark at. The counterpoint is the sheer differential between these two lineups given the starting pitcher situation. I’ll take my chances with the first 5 inning approach considering I have Chicago’s first half win percentage around 2-6% higher than their full game figure. Compare that to the early market’s 1% premium on the first 5 over the full game line and that’s the way I have to go.
WAGER: White Sox First 5 Innings -136 (1.5u)
The Chicago first 5 inning team total is a consideration as well. If you’re on board with this White Sox lineup’s advantage against the lefty Rich Hill but not necessarily thrilled with backing Giolito, there are early indications that their team total over 2.5 runs will be at plus money once the market is fleshed out this morning. I’m a little less interested in this option given the cooler temperatures though it is certainly a viable option. BOL!
Heading for Home
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