PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
8-1

SEASON RESULTS:
63-37-2

Week 13 Recap:

It takes some strong handicapping and a little bit of luck to string together an 8-1 Sunday of NFL betting. (Unofficially 9-1 as we gave you a freebie with Aaron Rodgers +200 over 2.5 touchdowns that also hit). We definitely had a little bit of both if you followed the winners and re-visited the initial breakdowns. We’ll start with our only loss, which was Mr. Consistent, Nick Chubb, who fell 3.5 yards short of his yardage total. With his team up 3 scores heading into the 4th quarter, and Chubb with 79 yards it seemed like a slam dunk that he’d go well over his total of 83.5, but the team inexplicably was throwing a lot. Kareem Hunt also ate into the 4th quarter carries despite having very little production on the ground. We won’t dwell too much on that as we managed to sweep the remaining 8 props.

Our unders on receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen went exactly to form even though their respective teams were in clear throwing mode for much of the second half. Brandon Allen’s under yardage looked dicey as Tyler Boyd turned an early 2 yard pass into a 72 yard touchdown, however he never got anything else going before being pulled/injured in the 4th quarter. Travis Kelce was his usual big-play self in primetime as he crushed his far too low catch reception total. Our scariest play that we put out was Mitchell Trubisky who’s yardage total was 6 yards higher than his average on the year. However, as he has done throughout his career he found a way to get some yards against a porous Lions pass defense and cashed. Tight end Anthony Firkser stepped in for the injured Johnnu Smith for the Titans and in a game they fell way behind in also cashed his minuscule 2.5 receptions early in the third quarter. Our two most fortunate wins were in the same game as both James Robinson and Dalvin Cook were slightly short of their yardage totals in regulation. Both had a chance to touch the ball in overtime which resulted in both going over. As we said, some good analysis, some good luck. Hopefully you were tailing!

Week 14 Preview:

This week’s edition of player props features some new faces and some familiar ones. Eight total plays, five of which are centered at the quarterback position. Two players for the Minnesota Vikings with conflicting totals, and a rebound performance expected in Los Angeles. There are some downright scary wagers on this list below, but as Trubisky proved for us a week ago, sometimes you have to follow the statistics even when it’s frightening.

Our Picks:

Brandon Allen – Under 215.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Might as well start with a scary proposition right off the bat as taking any player with an under against the Dallas Cowboys defense seems nuts. This is a classic battle of weakness versus weakness as Brandon Allen has looked completely inept in six career starts. Allen is averaging 178 yards passing in those starts, and even against this Cowboys group with a talented group of wide receivers will struggle to get to the 200 yard mark. There should be plenty of running in this game on both sides which will shorten the clock. There’s also a chance Allen may not even finish the game as he’s battling through injury and could get pulled if not performing early. Until Allen can prove he can throw for 200 yards we’ll keep riding the under.

Dalvin Cook – Under 84.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Dalvin Cook is the most consistent rusher in the NFL and we have a season future of him winning the rushing title. This weekend’s matchup will be a rare instance where Cook isn’t able to get things going on the ground as he faces the league’s top rushing defense in Tampa Bay. Cook has not averaged 4 yards per carry in his last three games against much lesser competition as teams are stacking the box and forcing the game to Kirk Cousins. Cook is too good to be completely shut down, but the Buccaneers should be able to keep him under the 80 yard mark.

Adam Thielen – Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

It only makes sense if we believe Dalvin Cook may struggle that we like the chances of Adam Thielen (and Justin Jefferson) against the Buccaneers. Our initial thought was to play Kirk Cousins, however that’s just always a risky proposition. When you look back at the last six weeks of the season you’ll see that wide receivers have absolutely scorched the Tampa Bay secondary. Receivers have been routinely nabbing 8+ catches per game. It wouldn’t be surprising if both Thielen and Jefferson get to 6, and we’re going to give Thielen the nod in this game.

Andy Dalton – Over 249.5 Yards Passing (-110)

As scary as it is wagering with the Cowboys offense, it’s equally as crazy to take an over with their offense. Their decimated offensive line has really crippled what should have been one of the most explosive units in the league. Sunday will be an exception though as they have a friendly matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton makes his return to Paul Brown Stadium and the Dallas offense is as healthy as it’s been since Dak Prescott went down with his injury. Ezekiel Elliot should have some early success which will free things up in the passing game for Dalton. It’s not unreasonable to expect Dalton can go for over 250 yards in a classic return game with his talented group of pass catchers.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 307.5 Yards Passing (-110)

At first glance booking Patrick Mahomes to go over 300 yards against the Miami Dolphins seems questionable. Many people believe the Dolphins have a chance to upset KC based on their defense slowing down the potent Chiefs offense. The BetCrushers do not fall into that camp as this is a bad matchup for the Miami defense. Patrick Mahomes has been electric in his last four games and there’s really no reason to believe that won’t continue Sunday. The Dolphins defense has not seen anything like the Chiefs offense and can’t lock in on just one player with their top corner Xavien Howard. Even with a high total, it never feels terrible taking top tier players to hit their overs.

Keenan Allen – Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

We faded Keenan Allen last week and were able to cash as the Chargers were unable to get anything going against the New England secondary. We’re back on the Allen bandwagon here though as has a great matchup against the 30th ranked pass defense at home. Allen is one of the most consistent pass catchers in the league and should have a big bounce back performance against the Falcons. With his reception total set at his usual average of 6.5, we’re expecting him to have an above average game and get this one paid.

Taysom Hill – Over 43.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Sean Payton was thrilled to see Taysom Hill advance in the passing game and toss a pair of touchdowns last week against the Falcons. Sunday he’ll face an Eagles defense that will be after him more aggressively meaning Hill will need to make quick decisions in the pocket. That will lead to a lot of tucking and running, something the Eagles have had trouble defending all season. No team has given up more rushing yards to quarterbacks than Philly so there’s no reason to believe Hill won’t find success running.

Matt Ryan – Under 269.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Not many quarterbacks have been as consistent tossing 300 yard games as the Falcons Matt Ryan has throughout his career. A vast majority of those games have come with Julio Jones manning the wide receiver position. Jones was ruled out for Sunday which means Ryan’s efficiency will suffer a bit. Add in the fact that the Chargers are one of the top passing defenses in the league and this is not a great spot for Matty Ice. Without Jones, it’s difficult to see him getting over this yardage total.

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