Our Road Dogs chopped on Wednesday with an early letdown and a late night comeback. Generally speaking, my leans have looked good and delivering some confidence as D1 hoops inches towards conference play. I have a rare three plays with a short Thursday card in the Road Dog Report for 12/19/2019.
Quick thoughts on last night’s wagers: Youngstown State was clearly the side as they pulled away after Binghamton (+10) was tight early at 17-16. YSU shot very well and controlled the court with a 17-point lead at half. The Bearcats pulled within 11 late but failed to score in the last three minutes of the game. Bad read on my part.
Pacific (+4) was live in Sin City despite falling behind at half after the Rebels went into the break on a mini-run. My handicap pointed towards Pacific being a live dog if they could make their free throw shots down the stretch. As a team that was 62% from the line, this was a major concern. Fortunately, they went 15-20 with foul shots and were good from downtown (9-20) to get the outright win.
(719) Appalachian St. @ South Alabama -4
The 6-4 Mountaineers have a much improved team under second-year coach Dustin Kerns. They’ll square up against a South Alabama Jaguars team that has a comparable record but has been more effective in Mobile, going 4-1 at home. The Jaguars are led by six seniors in what is effectively a seven-man rotation. This experienced team plays clean basketball, thrives on high-percentage shots, and takes advantage of their free throw opportunities.
Appalachian State has a nice inside-outside combo with guard Justin Forrest and forward Isaac Johnson, who has been a dominant force on the glass. The Mountaineers play solid ball as well, not fouling or turning the ball over much. They have an excellent defense, which will be needed against a South Alabama squad that averages 77.4 points per game. My core ratings have this Road Dog favored by a couple points, so +4 is a good take as long as they are not on the wrong side of the end game death spiral.
On the Money
App. State has been solid away from home with a 4-2 ATS record, as opposed to South Alabama’s 1-3 home ATS mark. The Jaguars have failed predominantly when laying big numbers, although they have pulled upsets against Northeastern and Auburn on their home court. ASU has covered their last two on the road, including being big favorites at Howard.
Their last two comps as Road Dogs were +9.5 at UNC Greensboro and +11 at ETSU. I rate those teams 10- and 8-points better than USA, making +2 or so a fair number. +4 gives us a couple points of value, so I am taking this number with an Appalachian State team that should be live with their good defense.
(731) Montana St. @ CSU Bakersfield -4
After they disappointed me a few nights ago, I’m back on the 6-4 Montana State Bobcats in Bakersfield tonight. I won’t belabor my handicap on the Bobcats, as it is essentially the same as it was on Monday. If Montana State can control their turnover problem they should win this game outright. Freshman Jubrile Belo and Devin Kirby have the size to take care of business down low while Harald Frey runs the show in the backcourt.
The 4-8 Bakersfield Roadrunners are 4-3 at home and are not afraid to use their full roster. Talent is lacking on this team but they could spoil the Bobcats’ night with their ability to steal and block. I’m just not sold on this team’s size as compared to Montana State’s. The Roadrunners are not good perimeter shooters and could have trouble against the Bobcat bigs.
On the Money
Despite dropping their last game to North Dakota State, the Bobcats are 4-2 ATS away from home. Bakersfield has been an absolute sieve at 1-8 ATS. Their last two as a home favorite saw them get a win against Hampton at -7 after taking a 9-point loss to Sam Houston State at -4.5. When I factor in my core ratings, these comps hint that -2 is a good number here…except that the big win against Hampton may be the exception to the norm. Again, barring a major turnover discrepancy Montana State is a solid Road Dog with the +4.
(1487) The Citadel @ Longwood -4
Quick hit: The 5-5 Citadel Bulldogs have been really good as Road Dogs, getting the money in three of four opportunities in this spot. Their lone blemish ATS was +27 at Illinois, though they have covered on the road as +28 at Georgia, +7 at Southeast Missouri State (outright winner), and +3 at Marist (outright winner).
5-6 Longwood has played at home twice, and has covered as the favorite in both. They blew out Maryland Eastern Shore by 30 as a 14.5-point favorite and beat St. Francis by 9 as a 6-point favorite. I think a fair line here is -2 with the Bulldogs having a significant advantage with their great guard play and excellent shooting.
Road Dog Report for 12/19/2019 – Final Card
- (719) Appalachian State +4
- (731) Montana State +4
- (1487) The Citadel +4
