The 2024 MLB season is roughly one-quarter of the way finished, making now a great time to self-assess our preseason projections. Where are things on track? And more importantly, where has JJ’s outlook led him astray? Weather is improving across the country but recent cooler temps have reminded us how important it is to keep an eye on atmospheric conditions each day we handicap. On the macro level, scoring is down a solid half run per game across the league – another factor to adjust for. With that in mind, the MLB 2024 First Quarter Report compares each team’s overall offense, starting pitching performance, and bullpen performance to our expectations as well as win total pace. (This isn’t the place to get too granular!) An arrow up notes better performance than expected; vice versa for an arrow down. NOTE: All data and records posted through Saturday, May 12th.
NL EAST Leader: Philadelphia Phillies
There’s no doubt that defending NL East champion Atlanta would have the Phillies on their tail this season. The fact that Philadelphia’s early sprint to the lead – as opposed to a late summer surge – speaks volumes to how dominant their rotation has been to date. Key underperformer Matt Olson should come around for the Braves, though the loss of ace Spencer Strider continues to be felt. Fortunately, veteran Chris Sale has been a huge shot in the arm for Atlanta’s rotation.
Miami’s underwhelming first quarter is less of a surprise than Washington’s relatively strong start. CJ Abrams, Jesse Winker, and company have provided enough offense for the Nats’ plucky pitching staff to round out. It’s tough to hang with the big boys of the NL East though. Starting pitching setbacks for the Mets have kept them out of contention as the divisional race should continue to be of the two-horse variety. Is there enough on that roster to challenge for a Wild Card spot?
| PHI | ATL | WSN | NYM | MIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-12 | 24-12 | 19-19 | 18-20 | 10-31 |
| Win % | .700 | .667 | .500 | .474 | .244 |
| Win Pace | 113 | 108 | 81 | 77 | 40 |
| wRC+ | 117 | 111 | 94 | 101 | 78 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔺 | — | 🔻 |
| SP FIP | 3.18 | 3.83 | 3.38 | 4.18 | 4.80 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔻 |
| BP FIP | 3.50 | 3.91 | 3.54 | 3.23 | 4.28 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | — | 🔺 | 🔺 | — |
NL CENTRAL Leader: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee’s red hot start at the dish continues as Christian Yelich returns to the top half of this righty-mashing unit. They’ve done enough to carry a middling rotation buoyed by Freddy Peralta and an improving bullpen while closer Devin Williams recovers from injury. Despite the struggling offenses of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and St. Louis, there’s no rest for the Brew Crew with Chicago hot on their tail.
Much like the East, the NL Central is shaping up as a two-team division while the other three clubs look to find traction. Cincy’s injuries, Pittsburgh’s lack of punch, and no-shows by Cardinals’ veterans Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt raise serious doubts about these laggards’ comeback capacity. Losing catcher Willson Contreras for a few months did not help the cause either. Chicago could very well be the division’s most well-rounded club – Shota Imanaga leading the rotation plus Cody Bellinger and the stacked lineup are a major threat for a big summer run.
| MIL | CHC | PIT | CIN | STL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-15 | 23-17 | 18-22 | 17-22 | 15-24 |
| Win % | .615 | .575 | .450 | .436 | .385 |
| Win Pace | 100 | 93 | 73 | 71 | 62 |
| wRC+ | 117 | 105 | 85 | 82 | 85 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔻 | 🔻 |
| SP FIP | 4.47 | 3.61 | 4.22 | 3.89 | 4.35 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔻 | 🔺 | — | 🔺 | 🔻 |
| BP FIP | 4.13 | 4.10 | 3.68 | 4.33 | 3.62 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | — | 🔺 | — | 🔺 |
NL WEST Leader: Los Angeles Dodgers
No surprise in the NL West as the Dodgers find themselves atop the division in the early goings. Was there any doubt that a lineup headlined by Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman would thrive? No. But a monster start by Teoscar Hernandez and power from Will Smith and Max Muncy have propelled the L.A. lineup to the top of the heap by a notable margin. Add in a stout rotation bolstered this offseason by Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for more domination. It’s business as usual in Chavez Ravine.
Pitching continues to hold San Diego back from pressuring the Dodgers. Barring a blazing hot run by defending NL Pennant winners Arizona, L.A. is the class of the NL West. Colorado’s scuffling start is no surprise and the Giants continue to fight the injury bug. San Francisco has upside potential with their emerging lineup but find themselves in a decent hole that could be tough to dig out of at this point. Wild Card run? Perhaps. But that’s a long row to hoe.
| LAD | SDP | ARI | SFG | COL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-14 | 21-21 | 18-22 | 18-23 | 11-28 |
| Win % | .659 | .500 | .450 | .439 | .282 |
| Win Pace | 107 | 81 | 73 | 71 | 46 |
| wRC+ | 129 | 110 | 104 | 97 | 80 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 | — | — |
| SP FIP | 3.72 | 4.24 | 4.04 | 3.81 | 4.89 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | 🔻 | 🔻 | 🔻 | — |
| BP FIP | 3.91 | 4.12 | 4.31 | 4.11 | 4.21 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔺 | — |
AL EAST Leader: Baltimore Orioles
The birds are back at it this season. But 2023’s no-show Yankees have turned over a new leaf despite losing ace Gerrit Cole for all of 2024. That Juan Soto guy is pretty good at hitting in case anyone had doubts. Aaron Judge is healthy and mashing while young shortstop Anthony Volpe has found his way quite nicely. Watching the O’s and Yankees battle for the AL East this summer will be very entertaining as Baltimore’s young talent continues to produce. Plus their sneaky good rotation has gotten a few arms back from injury.
Of the three other middling clubs, Boston has held their own quite nicely led by quality pitching from top to bottom. Tampa’s bullpen weakness should improve along with their offense as key hitters Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena come alive. Questions need answered north of the border, however, as Toronto struggles to find a foothold in nearly all aspects of their game. It’s been a while since the Jays were sellers at the trade deadline but nothing should be off the table.
| BAL | NYY | BOS | TBR | TOR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-12 | 26-15 | 20-19 | 20-20 | 18-21 |
| Win % | .684 | .634 | .513 | .500 | .462 |
| Win Pace | 111 | 103 | 83 | 81 | 75 |
| wRC+ | 115 | 115 | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔺 | — | 🔻 | 🔻 |
| SP FIP | 3.66 | 4.17 | 3.48 | 3.54 | 4.23 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | — | 🔺 | — | 🔻 |
| BP FIP | 3.70 | 3.53 | 3.46 | 5.01 | 5.00 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔻 |
AL CENTRAL Leader: Cleveland Guardians
Aside from the White Sox, the AL Central is the first quarter’s most competitive division from top to bottom. Cleveland has hacked their way through starting pitching woes, notably the loss of ace Shane Bieber almost from the get-go. But they have stiff competition looming in the rear view mirror. Minnesota’s offense came alive after a slow start and the Royals show no signs of backing down.
K.C.’s bullpen is much less of a liability than I originally expected and their rotation is no mirage. Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Seth Lugo are on top of their games this season. Detroit finds themselves in no-man’s land around the .500 mark – pitching has led the way while the offense struggles to find stability. Don’t sleep on the Tigers rotation by any means. It’s the lineup that needs to wake up. Barring disaster, Cleveland should grind their way to covering its win total and my futures ticket. As for the division title, that’s a different story. This is another good contest to follow.
| CLE | MIN | KCR | DET | CHW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-16 | 23-16 | 24-17 | 20-19 | 12-28 |
| Win % | .600 | .590 | .585 | .513 | .300 |
| Win Pace | 97 | 96 | 95 | 83 | 49 |
| wRC+ | 101 | 109 | 96 | 92 | 73 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔺 | — | 🔻 |
| SP FIP | 4.37 | 3.71 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 4.56 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔻 | — | 🔺 | 🔺 | — |
| BP FIP | 2.65 | 3.70 | 4.17 | 3.87 | 4.90 |
| (vs. Proj) | 🔺 | 🔺 | — | 🔺 | 🔻 |
AL WEST Leader: Texas Rangers
The mediocrity we expected from the Central divisions has been the stamp on the AL West so far. Who would you rather back, Texas’ offense or Seattle’s pitching staff? That’s likely what this division comes down to this fall down the stretch. And so much for Houston taking control of the AL West in conjunction with a Rangers’ title defense letdown. On paper, there’s a lot yet to play out in this division.
But we haven’t hit the part of the season where Oakland sells off talent. Maybe this year will be different, and my win total bet on them hopes that is the case. Conversely, the Angels’ ticket is not looking good. Shame on me for expecting anything different than poor pitching and an injured Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
| TEX | SEA | OAK | LAA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-19 | 21-19 | 19-22 | 15-25 | 14-25 |
| Win % | .537 | .525 | .463 | .375 | .359 |
| Win Pace | 87 | 85 | 75 | 61 | 58 |
| wRC+ | 104 | 96 | 101 | 96 | 110 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | 🔻 | 🔺 | 🔻 | — |
| SP FIP | 3.90 | 3.59 | 4.47 | 4.15 | 4.98 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | — | 🔻 | 🔺 | 🔻 |
| BP FIP | 4.32 | 3.49 | 3.14 | 4.49 | 4.34 |
| (vs. Proj) | — | 🔺 | 🔺 | 🔻 | 🔻 |
Final Preseason Win Total Ranges
MLB Action is Heating Up!
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