From a torrid 40-20 start through a ho-hum summer, the Texas Rangers played the role of postseason road warriors on their way to the franchise’s first World Series Championship. 11 of their 13 playoff wins came away from Globe Life Field! The Rangers’ third AL Pennant came at the expense of the defending World Champion Houston Astros, whose title defense was alive until the bitter end – Game 7 of the ALCS. Unsurprisingly, the Athletics were non-factors at the complete other end of the spectrum. But it was a tale of two Augusts that sent the Angels and Mariners in complete opposite directions. Is it just me, or does the 2024 AL West race look even more complicated?

The blood, sweat, and tears continue with the BetCrushers’ 5th Annual Divisional Previews & Futures outlook for the 2024 MLB season. As always, we appreciate your support! Are they too much? Maybe. But the ends continue to justify the means, and we hope you’re able to make a few bucks along the way. (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2023 World Series Champions: Texas Rangers

2023 Division Winner: Houston Astros

2023 AL West Final Standings

1. Houston Astros (90-72)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72)
3. Seattle Mariners (88-74)
4. Los Angeles Angels (73-89)
5. Oakland Athletics (50-112)

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Houston Astros 2024 Win Total: Open 88.5, Now 91.5

2023 Result: Under 97.5 (90-72 / Pythag: 93)

The 2023 rendition of the Houston Astros came nowhere near the 106-win team preceding it. But they were good when it mattered. Fitting how the return of Justin Verlander for the stretch run powered through to their seventh straight ALCS appearance. The title defense bid failed valiantly and beloved manager Dusty Baker rode off into the sunset. That opens the door for Baker’s lieutenant Joe Espada to pick up where Dusty left off. Whether it was the 2020 fade via an Athletics division ticket, a 2021 A’s fade/Astros double-dip combo, or some divisional dabbling in 2022, I’ve found a few ways to get involved with the AL West futures in the five-year history of our previews. But not last year for some reason. So how are we feeling about 2024?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• V Caratini (C)
• J Hader (RP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• H Neris (RP – RHP)
• P Maton (RP – RHP)
• M Brantley (OF)
• R Stanek (RP – RHP)
• M Maldonado (C)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 92 – 96

— Position Players —

Good habits are hard to break. Top five offensive production with run-preventing defense in three straight seasons is primo reliability. As for their run at a fourth high-level season, the only regulars that went to free agency are Michael Brantley and Martin Maldonado. It’s been a frustrating last couple years for Brantley with so much time lost to injury. Very unfortunate. The silver lining to the lineup losing a lefty bat is that he only made 15 appearances, so no year-over-year replacement issues there.

Maldonado is another story. His surge in a shortened 2020 season was a flash in the pan. Sporadic pop and strong rapport with his pitchers were his calling cards until the 36-year-old’s defense went sour last year. Incoming catcher Victor Caratini provides the replacement value with Yainer Diaz earning the lion’s share of backstop duties. Diaz going from rookie to main man likely saps his offense but nothing dramatic. A healthy season maintains Yanier’s value with upside. The switch-hitting Caratini has a 15% better bat over Maldonado with good defense. Barring disaster, that’s a 2 win net at the catcher group.

If It Ain’t Broke…

Trotting out a championship caliber offense year after year has relied heavily on the veteran quartet of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. Yordan’s +70% bat is a thing of beauty and Alex Bregman is a consistent RBI producer with superb plate discipline giving top-tier fielding at third base. A 1+ WAR bump between these two is a fair bull forecast. Running back 9 WAR is a good base case.

Kyle Tucker flirted with a 30/30 season, falling just one dinger short of being the first Astro to get there since Carlos Beltran in 2004. As a greedy handicapper, I appreciate him clocking in at a consistent 4.7, 4.8, & 4.9 WAR during this run. No signs of slowing down for the 27-year-old barring injury – something that the lefty hitter has generally managed to avoid. Of these four pillars of the Houston lineup, Jose Altuve is the least likely to replace his own value. He’s the elder statesman of the foursome, turning 34 in May. That’s the first strike against him. Declining defense in recent years is another. But the’s a top five hitter at the second base position, so plenty of value carried over by a healthy Altuve.

…Don’t Fix It

The supporting cast ain’t half bad either. Veteran first baseman Jose Abreu’s slow spring gave way to a decent summer and final month of the season. It is highly doubtful that we see .450+ SLG or 120+ wRC+ from the 37-year-old again, though rebounding into a positive value this year is probable. That said, the fact that Abreu hit only .237 but still knocked in 90 RBI is testament to the effectiveness of the Astros lineup. That’s 15 more RBI than the year before in Chicago when he hit .304 in 85 more plate appearances.

Maybe wild card is the right term for the bottom third of the order. The homegrown talent of Chas McCormick, Jeremy Pena, and Jake Meyers offer more variability than the more experienced portion of this crew. Shortstop Pena’s defense remained strong while trading improved plate discipline for less pop (.263/.324/.381). In fact, both he and flexible outfielder Chas McCormick are key parts of the team’s ongoing defensive success. The 28-year-old Millersville University product stealthily made a 3.8-WAR breakout that should be tough to replicate. Regardless, anything near his +10% offensive baseline with plus defense at all three outfield spots returns 2+ WAR. Jake Meyers is an ace in the field but not quite there at the plate. Strikeouts and a big hole against right-handed pitching (.218/.282/.364) limited his effectiveness in an expanded role last year.

Houston’s bench could get a shot in the arm as the season rolls on. But at this point, the go-to guy looks to be their Swiss Army Knife, Mauricio Dubon. 1.9 WAR came by virtue of regaining his early-career contact numbers and logging a lot of playing time while Jose Altuve was on the shelf. Signs point to his offense staying on track though in a reduced bench role if the Astros’ key personnel stay healthy. That shaves a win of value from his ledger. I’m planning for modest defensive improvements, primarily from behind the plate, as well as minor offensive splits adjustments.

— Rotation —

Good, but not great, is a fair summary of the 2023 rotation. Don’t get it twisted – Framber Valdez is a bona fide workhorse ace. Between the 2022 & 2023 seasons: 399.1 innings, 3.13 ERA, 3.28 FIP/3.19 xFIP, plenty of grounders, 3.18 K/BB. I don’t see much to legitimately doubt his stuff, making it a matter of pounding out 190+ innings to retain his value.

A roundabout reunion with Justin Verlander bolstered the rotation in August simply by eating an average of 6+ innings per start. Despite JV’s respectable 3.31 ERA after returning to Houston, the crew as a whole limped into the playoffs. The 40-year-old knocked out a 7-3 record in 11 starts worth 1.4 WAR – that’s 12% of the rotation’s full season value. When it comes to 2024, Verlander joins a flotilla of 130-160 inning dudes. Dudes like Christian Javier who has work to do to show us 2022 was not a fluke. And Hunter Brown, who was promising as a rookie and took advantage of his playing time. Will the young righty’s funky home run rate get worked out this season? Still, 5-6 WAR between these three is fair.

HOU Rotation, Before/After 8/5/23 Verlander Start

	IP	W – L	ERA	FIP/xFIP
Before 8/5	624.0	42 – 30	3.76	4.26/4.21
8/5 Onward	276.0	19 – 20	5.09	4.76/4.70

Depth is interesting. JP France finally got a taste of the MLB mound, getting by without much to put batters away. He’s the type of pitcher who probably joins Jose Urquidy in shifting between bullpen and rotation this season. But the real wild card of the group is Lance McCullers, a low-4.00s ground baller who can add 1+ WAR if able to return in July. It’s not enough to return to top-tier form, but gain 1-2 wins through the rotation next year? You bet.

— Bullpen —

One of the league’s toughest and deepest bullpens – a hallmark of the 2022 World Championship season – switched up some of its thunder this offseason on the heels of a mid-pack performance. Still, they clocked an MLB sixth-best 3.56 ERA and a league-leading 76.6% strand rate. Compared to 2022’s production and value, the 2023 bullpen was nowhere near the dominance of 2.80 ERA, 3.05 FIP/3.45 xFIP and 7.4 WAR though.

Free agency picked off three key relievers this winter: Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton. Neris settled into a groove after coming over from Philadelphia in 2022 and left on a deceiving high note (1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP/4.45 xFIP). Maton rebounded into a sharp 2023 that stymied opponents with 23.5% hard hit and 15.3% swinging strike rates. And the last of this right-handed trifecta, Ryne Stanek saw his home run luck swing the other direction on the way to a disappointing 4.09 ERA and 4.60 FIP/5.06 xFIP. The departed collectively dropped from 2.4 WAR in 2022 to 1.5 last season.

Picking Up the Pieces

After burying the lead for a couple paragraphs, let’s talk new blood in the bullpen. Lanky lefty Josh Hader returned to dominating form with the Padres – a form worth 5 years and $95M with the ‘Stros. GM Dana Brown had to plug Kendall Graveman’s spot after going down for the season in January. Hader’s “new normal” K rate is stout (36.8%) but plenty of signs like a career-high 13.0% walk rate and 2.69 FIP/3.52 xFIP cast doubt on repeating 1.28 ERA.

That’s not to say Houston won’t miss those three back-end relievers. The Neris/Stanek/Maton contingent accounted for 34% of the bullpen’s workload but weren’t quite as sharp last season. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of muscle on board with high-leverage arms Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Rafael Montero. Bulk arms Ronel Blanco, lefty Bennett Sousa, and Brandon Bielak are fine with long relief help from a sixth man-type like Jose Urquidy.

Ryan Pressly reached the age of 35 with gradual decline off of a 2.4-WAR high point in 2021. Late-inning boss Bryan Abreu exhibited great durability with a 34.8% K rate in 72 appearances while his partner Rafael Montero struggled with long balls and an ugly .358 BABIP. Montero has upside potential due to BABIP and a bloated 15.3% HR/FB rate. That upside could be limited by age. No real change in my bullpen grades this spring – Josh Hader should be enough to stabilize Houston’s quality high-leverage group.

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Texas Rangers 2024 Win Total: Open 91.5, Now 88

2023 Result: Over 81 (90-72 / Pythag: 96)

We all saw this one coming, right? Oddsmakers tacked on seven wins to the Rangers’ preseason future line after adding more juice to their roster. The result? A whopping 22-game improvement over 2022. Yet somehow they underperformed their pythag total by six wins! The presence of managerial legend Bruce Bochy and multiple spectacular individual efforts achieved the highest of highs in the MLB. Small upgrades in 2021 combined with massive dividends from 2022 investments Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to yield the franchise’s first World Series Championship. So what’s in store for 2024?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• K Yates (RP – RHP)
• T Mahle (SP – RHP)
• A Knizner (C)
• D Robertson (RP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• J Montgomery (SP – LHP)
• M Garver (C)
• A Chapman (RP – LHP)
• W Smith (RP – LHP)
• T Jankowski (OF)
• M Perez (SP – LHP)
• R Grossman (OF)
• B Martin (RP – LHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 84 – 89

— Rotation —

The Rangers rotation is an interesting story in itself. They struck quickly with primo acquisition Jacob deGrom making 6 starts worth an incredible 1.5 WAR before Tommy John surgery ended his campaign. Nathan Eovaldi came out on fire with a first-half 2.83 ERA and 3.15 FIP/3.66 xFIP valued at 3.0 WAR. Flip the calendar after the All-Star Break and Eovaldi stumbled down the stretch with a 7.18 ERA with little relief from the underlying numbers (7.13 FIP/5.31 xFIP). Then came a changing of the guard as Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer buoyed the rotation with 19 starts worth 2.9 WAR. It truly was a tale of two halves with Texas’ top-end starting pitching personnel.

2024 looks to have a similar context for Bruce Bochy’s rotation. This time, it’s indirectly by design. deGrom and Scherzer are expected back from their surgeries in the second half if all goes well. These two are getting up there in age, making Max’s recovery from a herniated disc a little more of a question. And Jacob could come back better than ever – but for how long? Additionally, GM Chris Young’s offseason dealings included free agent signing Tyler Mahle who is also set to return from Tommy John rehab later in the season. So the stretch run could get a shot in the arm as these three righties are integrated into the roster.

The Show Must Go On

Until then, the Rangers will power through with a rotation headed up by familiar faces. Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning all return after making 25+ starts last season. What’s particularly good news is the preseason expectations essentially replacing their 2023 production while the deGrom/Scherzer/Mahle trio’s return gets sorted out. Ground-ballers Eovaldi and Dunning have a great infield defense behind them to help keep pace as a 4-5 WAR duo. Fastball/slider guys Heaney and Gray are nondescript as mid-rotation pieces but find themselves in critical hold down the fort roles until reinforcements relieve some pressure.

As much as I hate glossing over the World Champion’s starting pitching, a realistic viewpoint is one of stability going into 2024. Without Jordan Montgomery the door is open for left-hander Cody Bradford and prospect Owen White to earn starts. Bradford plodded through 8 starts in his MLB debut, leaving room for positivity after suffering a .340 BABIP and 6.95 ERA as a starter. White tasted the majors in two relief appearances and could get called upon to show off his broad arsenal if things don’t go according to plan.

Jacob deGrom’s return timeline is murkier than his cohorts’ after a second Tommy John surgery. Can Texas count on anything to move the needle in the regular season? A conservative approach puts deGrom in the 1-WAR bucket pending no rehab setbacks. Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle figure to be a 2-win duo upon return, replacing someone like Bradford or Heaney. Even if you are less than optimistic with the big guns’ recoveries, the Texas rotation should make a run at matching last year’s top ten unit.

— Bullpen —

Things get softer transitioning to the bullpen – a story that carries over from 2023’s bottom-half group. Out go the collective 1.6 WAR from World Series good luck charm Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman’s impactful second half. Replacing part of that missing value is David Robertson and Kirby Yates, although the replacement part is more appropriate for Robertson. At the age of 37, Yates is borderline replacement-level but did prove that he could handle a full workload last year with the Braves. The 38-year-old Robertson produced a 3.03 ERA last year in the NL East behind a 29.0% strikeout rate fueled by a resurgent cutter. He’s a boost to the high-leverage group but 1.2 WAR again might be a pipe dream. At minimum, the veteran helps keep pace with their division rivals’ moves for Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson.

Working With the Tools You Have

Payroll is tighter with the club’s broadcast revenue issues, so eschewing a push to assemble a top-tier bullpen makes sense from an ownership standpoint. Closer Jose Leclerc is a wild card after two straight seasons of excellent swing-and-miss stuff. Walks are part of his profile, making those years’ .243 and .244 BABIPs the biggest challenge in projecting him for 2024. He has the velo and the pitch mix to anchor the high-leverage group but the numbers nerd in me looks at the 4.38 and 4.72 xFIPs with skepticism.

Josh Sborz has become a legitimate strikeout guy with ground ball skills that play well with the Texas defense. The 30-year-old is almost the inverse of Leclerc, giving up more home runs but posting low-3.00s xFIPs to go with 5.00+ ERAs. I guess you can put these two together and come out with a blended 1.5-WAR high-leverage duo making 120+ appearances.

This puts an emphasis on middle relievers like Jonathan Hernandez and lefty-hander Brock Burke. Burke was an absolute workhorse in 2022 but fell to mediocrity after losing 6.6% from his K rate and failing to carry forward beneficial home run luck. Texas needs him to be the sub-4.00 go-to lefty that Will Smith was. The cascading effect of getting those second-half rotation reinforcements should push guys like Andrew Heaney into long relief or swingman roles to improve the bullpen’s depth. I don’t have a good reason to move this unit off of its average to below-average position.

— Position Players —

With an offense like this, the Rangers can afford for their pitching staff to play second fiddle. A fourth-best 114 wRC+ didn’t even benefit from a ton of action on the base paths. In fact, Texas’ elite slash line (.263/.337/.452) more than made up for the league’s fourth-lowest stolen bases (79). That’s about one bag for every two games – an outlier in 2023’s prolific landscape. But when your lineup contains five 120+ wRC+ hitters, you let the bats do the talking.

The MLB’s third-most valuable position player corps (33.3 WAR) wasn’t completely driven by its bats though. Texas fielded a top five defense underlined by a lack of holes at any position. Gold Glovers peppered the field – Nathaniel Lowe at first base, Adolis Garcia in right, and Jonah Heim behind the plate. And second baseman Marcus Semien was arguably the team’s best fielder but failed to outdo Cleveland’s Andres Gimenez for the second straight season. Semien moved over from shortstop after joining the Blue Jays in 2021 and hasn’t looked back since.

I expect the Rangers to be one of the better fielding teams once again. Semien may regress a tad and Travis Jankowski’s flexible outfield skills are gone. But the rest of Texas’ key personnel is back in the saddle and aren’t pointing at a notable dropoff. Jonah Heim was solid against running teams while rating as a top ten framing catcher for the third straight season. Although the backup situation has not improved with Andrew Knizner in place of Mitch Garver. What’s really intriguing is their emerging outfield unit headlined by plus defense from Adolis Garcia, centerfielder Leody Taveras, and top prospect Evan Carter.

Firing on All Cylinders

There shouldn’t be a whole lot of questions with the offense after all but Mitch Garver, Robbie Grossman, and Travis Jankowski return for an encore. Garver earned a big check as Seattle’s designated hitter after slashing .270/.370/.500 in a half-season of work. His 2.1 WAR will be missed, especially with Bochy not having a true DH option. Sure, there’s plenty of very good hitters on the 26-man roster but their defensive value I just spoke about is a key part of keeping this team in the right direction.

The Corey Seager/Marcus Semien double play duo registered an insane 12.4 WAR that eclipsed seven different clubs’ position player group values. Semien’s defense fueled a decent chunk of his 6.3 WAR. Posting his third-highest 124 wRC+ and playing in 162 games comprised the bulk of his value. And if you want to talk about durability, Marcus Semien is your guy. He registered 700+ plate appearances for the fifth straight season (not including 2020), earning him the honors of logging the most PAs of any player since 2018. Shortstop Corey Seager missed time due to a thumb sprain yet still blasted 33 home runs while slugging a career-best .623. As optimistic as my trusted projection systems are with these established veterans, a 9-11 WAR outlook falls a couple wins short of last season’s monster year.

Meanwhile, two early pieces of the Rangers’ roster rebuild, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia, did their part to grind out runs. First baseman Lowe’s anticipated pullback from a 141 wRC+ in 2022 via a .363 BABIP gets into a comfortable range. He’s just about an automatic 2 WAR with Semien-like reliability to take the field. Garcia, on the other hand, broke out with 39 bombs and .508 slugging that was 52 points better than the season prior. How skeptical are you with this power surge and sudden 4.2% walk rate increase continuing in 2024? The answer shapes expectations for how much of a drop from 4.8 WAR Adolis will experience. Were Garcia’s numbers a spike or a trend?

Bracing For the Next Wave

After last season’s rise to baseball’s pinnacle, most people are now fully aware that the Texas Rangers are much more than their marquee free agent imports Semien and Seager. Catcher Jonah Heim not only earned defensive accolades, he put up career offensive numbers (.258/.317/.438) en route to 4.1 WAR. But his fast start simmered in the second half, losing 43% in overall productivity from one side of the All-Star Break to the other. To a lesser degree, 25-year-old switch-hitting centerfielder Leody Taveras continued his trend of improving plate discipline. Much like rookie third baseman Josh Jung, Taveras is creating a solid baseline to project from – and both should retain their 2+ WAR values in 2024. These two are solid building blocks under team control for several more years to come.

Speedy left-handed hitting phenom Evan Carter burst onto the scene after many casual fans’ focus shifted to the NFL. But anyone watching the postseason – especially the World Series – saw a star in the making. The kid saved 4 runs in just 135.2 innings in left field and slashed a whopping .306/.413/.645. However, Carter’s 180 wRC+ and .412 BABIP across 75 regular season plate appearances screams the cliched “small sample size” rather loudly. There’s a lot to love about this up-and-comer, just be sure to temper expectations across a full season. Considerably more playing time will take the edge off of offensive regression and earn him another win over 2023’s value.

Maintaining a High Level

Bruce Bochy has reasonable positional flexibility with Josh H Smith and Ezequiel Duran. Smith fields well but has yet to get his bat up to snuff. Duran showed the opposite phenomenon in an expanded role last year, making him more suitable for the DH spot than a defensive role player. Plus he will contend with a .358 BABIP hangover. Even though the Rangers lagged their pythag win total by 6 games, the lost value of the position player group effectively washes out that baseline correction. It does with my math anyhow.

Am I too pessimistic on the reigning World Series Champions holding their ground in 2024? According to the futures markets, yes. Texas’ 26% year-over-year jump in offensive productivity was by far the largest of any club from 2022 to 2023. They lose Mitch Garver’s productive DH bat but mitigate that loss with Evan Carter in the lineup. But asking for Seager, Semien, and Garcia to hold their collective 17.2 WAR value is tough. I’ll enter the season with a notch or two down in overall offense. Seager crushed righties about 40% above what his baseline suggests. Reducing Garcia’s numbers and losing Garver shaves the team’s effectiveness against lefties too.

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Seattle Mariners 2024 Win Total: Open 87.5, Now 86.5

2023 Result: Under 89 (88-74 / Pythag: 91)

Seattle’s wild ride has taken them from a 68-win team back in 2019 to one that racked up 88+ wins in each of the last three seasons. In terms of market expectations, their 2023 result pretty much hit the mark. The M’s hit like they did the year before and rolled out one of the better pitching staffs in the entire MLB. But their late bid for a playoff berth fell oh so short as AL West rivals Houston and Texas ultimately represented the division in the postseason. A summertime push took them from a 38-42 record entering July to 76-57 at the end of August – a very impressive run that scared a lot of teams in the American League. Now the MLB’s most profitable team in 2022 faces uncertainty with their television deal that helped push them towards significant roster turnover.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• L Urias (INF)
• C Vargas (RP – RHP)
• S Zavala (C)
• J Kowar (RP – RHP)
• M Garver (C)
• M Haniger (OF)
• L Raley (OF)
• J Polanco (2B)
• G Santos (RP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• T Hernandez (OF)
• T Murphy (C)
• I Campbell (RP – RHP)
• M Ford (1B/DH)
• E Suarez (3B)
• J Kelenic (OF)
• M Gonzales (SP – LHP)
• E White (1B)
• R Ray (SP – LHP)
• J Caballero (INF)
• J Topa (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 84 – 89

— Rotation —

Rotation strength was put on display last year with a legitimate Big 3 consisting of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. Seattle’s starting pitchers formed a top five group by any broad metric – ERA, FIP, or xFIP – and were the second stingiest when it came to walks (5.7%). Most impressively, the Castillo/Gilbert/Kirby trio stayed healthy en route to sub-4.00 effectiveness. Each of them racked up 190+ innings and 31+ starts. That helped the rotation lodge the most innings (901.1) of any team, edging out Houston and Philadelphia for that distinction. Getting 6 innings per outing from your most potent arms is a massive boon to the club.

Castillo’s filthy slider lost its edge last year, which is about the only negative thing I can say about one of my favorite active pitchers. Coincidentally, the slider is where Logan Gilbert delivered the biggest improvement after a monster 2022 campaign. And Kirby’s oppressive 2.5% walk rate helped him follow up a monster rookie season with a 4.4-WAR encore. With such a high bar established by these rotation pillars, the biggest concern other than minor regression is injury. Although that goes without saying for any player, let alone starting pitcher. Clearly these guys have the stuff to repeat their collective 11 WAR. Injury risk aside, we’re still looking at the neighborhood of a 10+ WAR expectation at the top of the 2024 rotation.

The Youth Movement Keeps On Rolling

Outside of 31-year-old Luis Castillo, Seattle’s starting pitcher group is chocked full of young arms bursting onto the scene. Last year’s rookie class featured Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo picking up the slack left behind by the injury-shortened seasons of Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales. As a result of this strong rookie showing, the M’s traded Robbie to San Francisco and Marco was cycled through Atlanta to Pittsburgh via trade this winter. This leaves the Mariners without a left-handed starter. After a few years of ineffectiveness, however, Gonzales doesn’t leave too big of a hole to fill.

GM Jerry Dipoto’s approach of relying on rookie depth in recent seasons has certainly paid off. Especially as that depth turned into reliable rotation roles. Bryce Miller’s 1.9-WAR season shared a lot of similarities with Logan Gilbert’s 2021 rookie year – and you see what Gilbert has developed into. Now it becomes a matter of whether Miller takes that next step of sub-4.00 production over 150 innings. Woo’s June call-up started rough against Texas but the kid sprinkled in nine outings of 5+ innings with 2 or fewer runs. He had his ups and downs like any young pitcher. Bryan’s probable upside is tacking on several more starts while staying in the low-4.00s.

24-year-old Emerson Hancock just might be the wild card of the group. His MLB debut was cut short by a shoulder strain that constrained him to just 3 starts. That would leave a lot to be determined for Seattle’s next man up in the rotation, especially as swingman Anthony DeSclafani passed through town this winter. This group has an excellent foundation with their Big 3 and a pair of promising sophomores. On face value, the M’s rotation should retain its value – with downside risk of its pillars losing significant time.

— Bullpen —

Relief pitching has been Seattle’s strong suit for three years running. Maybe not as strong as their monster 2021 season but still well above average. The common denominators for this ongoing success: Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and Paul Sewald. That bond was broken when Dipoto sold high on Sewald by trading him last summer for Diamondbacks’ infielder Josh Rojas and a pair of prospects. At that point, the veteran right-handed reliever racked up 21 saves with a 2.93 ERA and 2.95 FIP/3.29 xFIP. He then went on to post a 3.57 ERA and 5.07 FIP/4.92 xFIP in Arizona. Talking about timing the market well!

Munoz and Brash are the common denominators of the 2022 & 2023 bullpens remaining on the roster. Working half the season in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park keeps us from being too hard on their low home run rates. 7.1% and 5.3% HR/FB rates, respectively, are tough marks to maintain. Even so, these 3.00-FIP high-leverage relievers project as a 2-3 win duo. Plus the fruits of Jerry’s February wheeling and dealing, White Sox’ key reliever Gregory Santos enters the fray. Very good command, ground ball contact, and impressive swing-and-miss stuff project him as a 1-win setup man.

Hidden Value in the Middle?

Justin Topa seemingly came out of nowhere at the age of 32 to pitch 69.0 innings of 2.61 ERA ball, only to become trade bait this winter. He and Matt Brash worked the most innings and outings for the relief unit – a surprising feat for a 30-something who had made only 17 MLB appearances in the prior three seasons with Milwaukee. Whether Topa replaces the 1.1 WAR post-breakout in Minnesota will eventually play out. Left-hander Gabe Speier finally broke out in his own rights after limited work with the Royals over four seasons, adding a little juice to the equation while moving up in the ranks.

Has the Mariners organization earned an intrinsic quality of turning water into wine when it comes to relievers? If you’re of that opinion, this bullpen shouldn’t miss a beat. Nondescript middle relievers like Trent Thornton, Tyler Saucedo, and newly-acquired Jackson Kowar will band together to provide 1 WAR. But my skeptical eye sees these guys as replacement level bulk. And that’s fine as long as some of the unproven arms like Carlos Vargas, Prelander Berra, and Darren McCaughan provide suitable depth. I don’t doubt that this bullpen will be very good again, just more like a top-ten unit instead of top-five.

— Position Players —

Hitting at T-Mobile Park is an uphill climb, yet the Mariners held their rank as a top ten offense again last year. The only true chink in their armor was carrying the league’s second-highest strikeout rate (25.9%). So if there is a silver lining around significant turnover in the lineup, it would be shedding four of the team’s six worst offenders in this department. Corner outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez struck out in 30%+ of their at bats, as did third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Although Kelenic’s days in Seattle were somewhat tenuous, veterans Hernandez and Suarez were the team’s biggest RBI producers behind 2022 AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez.

Speaking of Julio, the 23-year-old did anything but disappoint in his second big-league season. He shed about 10 points from his slash line but looks to be a legit high-BABIP hitter for years to come. Between his elite 52.0% hard hit rate, 30/30 Club status, and durability the kid pumped up his value to a monster 5.9 WAR. That’s what playing in 155 games does with his impressive skillset. Julio deservedly earns big projections once again in season three. How about a 5-WAR floor?

That sounds pretty damn good, especially when coupled with fellow top producers JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh. Much of Raleigh’s value came from behind the plate with enough power sprinkled in to smack 30 homers – not a bad hitter to have behind speedy guys who get on base with regularity. And that makes two straight 4+ WAR seasons from the switch-hitting catcher. With JP’s breakout .266/.380/.438 season in the rear view mirror, what should we realistically expect on the heels of 4.9 WAR? Regression from both if you’re playing the percentages. Lost value could be anywhere around 1-3 wins as the pair’s defensive outlooks are also mixed. This is where veteran first baseman Ty France’s rebound season could buffer one or more of those lost wins.

Reimagining the Supporting Cast

Seattle lost their often-injured but productive backup catcher Tom Murphy to free agency, instead electing to trade Eugenio Suarez to Arizona for Seby Zavala. The 30-year-old broke out with the White Sox in 2022 (.270/.347/.382) but never came close to those marks last year. I guess that’s what regressing from a .404 BABIP will do to a guy. His plus fielding is a step up from Murphy though. The M’s should see small defensive gains; nothing too radical to adjust for.

At least Suarez’ bat doesn’t leave too large of a hole after posting his lowest slugging percentage (.391) since 2014. A committee-like approach to filling Geno’s spot at third base looks to be headed up by Josh Rojas and free agent Luis Urias, fresh off of a disappointing season after excelling in 2021-2022. These two could complement each other well in a platoon if Urias pulls his end of the bargain. Plus former Twins second baseman Jorge Polanco stabilizes the middle infield with decent fielding and a plus bat. Now manager Scott Servais has enough manpower between Urias, Rojas, Dylan Moore, and Taylor Trammell to play musical chairs and play the matchup game.

Free agent Mitch Garver is a plus hitter; enough to instantly add 20%+ over last year’s DH group. Offseason trades for left-hander Luke Raley and former Mariner Mitch Haniger stand to block Seattle’s young corner outfielders for the time being. The Rays seem to have sold high on Raley and Haniger has struggled to stay healthy the last couple seasons. So it’s only a matter of time before Servais kicks the tires more on Dominic Canzone and Cade Marlowe. Although the team benefits from a bounty of positional flexibility, regression from their big guns stands to be Seattle’s governor at the plate.

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Los Angeles Angels 2024 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 71.5

2023 Result: Under 80 (73-89 / Pythag: 73)

Another season, another underwhelming performance from the Angels. Was this a surprise to anyone paying attention? In all fairness, I tagged them as a .500 or better squad but the end result was more of the same: a second straight 73-win season. My betting parter Yanni shared plenty of memes questioning how a team with two of the world’s best baseball players could not find a way to win, let alone make the postseason. Joe Maddon couldn’t do it. Phil Levin couldn’t do it. Now it’s grizzled veteran Ron Washington’s turn to right the ship. Unfortunately, Wash doesn’t have the luxury of writing the name of two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani on his lineup card.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• L Garcia (RP – RHP)
• A Cimber (RP – RHP)
• Z Plesac (SP – RHP)
• R Stephenson (RP – RHP)
• A Hicks (OF)
• J Cisnero (RP – RHP)

Subtractions:

• S Ohtani (DH/SP – RHP)
• R Grichuk (OF)
• G Urshela (INF)
• A Loup (RP – LHP)
• M Moustakas (INF)
• E Escobar (INF)
• J Barria (SP – RHP)
• J Walsh (1B)
• M Stassi (C)
• D Fletcher (INF)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 74 – 76

— Position Players —

Dealing with loss, setbacks, and change of plans. That’s life for many of us. For Ron Washington and the Angels, they lost their main source of production when Sho-time went north to the Dodgers in free agency. There’s no exaggeration in saying that Ohtani was the best amongst his teammates in nearly every meaningful offensive category. I write a lot about certain players leaving big holes on their former rosters but Shohei’s is of a totally different magnitude.

S Ohtani Offensive Statistics + Team Rankings (2023)

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
	599	44	102	95	20	15.2%	.304	.412	.654	180	6.6
Team Rank	1st	1st	1st	1st	1st	T-1st	1st	1st	1st	1st	1st

The only main category that Shohei did not rank well in was strikeout rate. Among the 18 Angels hitters with 100+ plate appearances, his 23.9% ranked ninth. Every superhero has a weakness, after all. That is an unfortunate segue into discussing L.A.’s former and once again best player, Mike Trout. The 11x All-Star and 3x AL MVP is now 32 years old and returns to action after another injury-filled season. Muscle strains of recent seasons gave way to a fluky broken bone in his hand this past year. But the reality of Trout no longer being the elite ironman player of the 2010s stares us all in the face.

While Mike Trout’s 8-10 WAR seasons are long gone, the guy still has enviable hitting skills and the instincts of a Gold Glove outfielder. Is Ron Washington the guy to finally put him in a corner outfield position and/or more of a designated hitter role? GM Perry Minasian’s simple answer: No. Part of the issue is not having an impactful centerfield type on the 40-man roster. Or do they? Former Philadelphia prospect Mickey Moniak filled in admirably to close out the season as Jordyn Adams showed he wasn’t quite ready for MLB action. At the age of 25, Moniak’s range graded out better than Trout’s while arm strength paled in comparison. And it did not help that the kid cooled off dramatically from his first half heater – an 85% decline to the second half.

Fading the Injury Bug

The productive change of scenery for Moniak coincides with fellow former Philadelphia farmhand Logan O’Hoppe’s emergence in Anaheim. Naturally, a torn labrum sidelined the 24-year-old rookie catcher for four months shortly after the season started. Although he still managed to slash .236/.296/.500, expectations point toward more reliability in getting on base and modest power numbers. Plus O’Hoppe is lauded as a solid defensive backstop with plenty of room for improvement. Unfortunately, that improvement doesn’t necessarily translate to a net impact at the position group as Chad Wallach filled in just fine defensively last year alongside Matt Thaiss.

What Mike Trout’s return to center field does is create a formidable group across the grass. Taylor Ward returns to action after taking a Alek Manoah sinker to the face that took him out of commission from August onward. That tough beat added insult to injury for an Angels club that had the most players, second-most salary, and second-most player days on the IL last season. Ward and Moniak in the corners should be effective against right-handed pitchers; splicing in Aaron Hicks and strikeout-prone Jo Adell as platoon bats involves chemistry full of unknowns. Are those unknowns better than the departed Randal Grichuk and Hunter Renfroe though?

We just cannot have an Angels injury discussion without bringing up Anthony Rendon. You know the deal by now. The third baseman hasn’t appeared in 60 or more games since coming to L.A. prior to the 2020 season. He’ll be 34 this season and carries diminished playing time expectations for obvious reasons. Without him, the Angels had a revolving door at the hot corner consisting of Gio Urshela, Mike Moustakas, Eduardo Escobar, and Luis Rengifo. Of those four, only Rengifo remains on the roster as part of the second base rotation with Brandon Drury. At least the Rendon/Rengifo/Drury infield trio is a plus-10% hitting group with neutral defense. I don’t plan on any big changes to their core group defensive ratings.

Reaching For Gains

Can a healthy Angels lineup pick up where they left off without Ohtani? The club was generally league average in many respects – except for an eighth-highest slugging percentage via Shohei’s .654 – yet markedly better than the 2021 & 2022 seasons. Is it a fool’s errand to expect Trout and Rendon to participate in 120+ games each? Probably. Ohtani’s 6.6 WAR and 180 wRC+ as a hitter are unrealistic marks even for him to hit again in 2024. Yet a 5-ish win dropoff at DH is what the Angels are staring at without him. Conservatively speaking, more playing time from Ward, Trout, and Rendon nets the club around 3-4 wins at those positions.

Ron Washington will also need his young talent – especially Logan O’Hoppe – to be productive members of the lineup. Not every injury-bitten veteran can occupy the DH spot at one time. How about some good news? Consensus expectations for shortstop Zach Neto in an everyday role are quite positive. Grinding his way towards a consistent, average bat with very good defense should net a win or so at this premium position. Now the position player shortfall looks less daunting.

22-year-old Nolan Schanuel jumped the AAA ranks last August as a stopgap option at first base in lieu of disappointing veterans Jared Walsh and Mike Moustakas. He and flexible infielder Brandon Drury have a prime opportunity to bring the league’s third-worst first baseman grouping back to respectability. Even a modest 1-WAR value brings more to the table above 2023’s -0.6 figure at first base. So the Ohtani gap has been closed…on paper, anyhow. A considerable part of accomplishing this hinges on the statement “more playing time from Ward, Trout, and Rendon nets the club around 4 wins at those positions.” The ifs, ands, and buts that go into this becoming a reality create the downside concerns looming over a status quo outlook. I’ll rebalance L.A.’s splits for Ohtani’s absence (196 wRC+ vs. RHP) but keep the overall offensive marks in line with 2023.

— Rotation —

If the lineup was generally unremarkable but okay, how did the Angels finish with only 73 wins? Pitching is the obvious answer. Their starting pitchers finished the season on the wrong side of average in most broad categories. And it certainly did not help that only one pitcher consistently worked past the fifth inning: Shohei Ohtani. L.A.’s other pitchers that made 20+ starts averaged no greater than 5.3 innings/start, exacerbating the team’s other big weakness in the bullpen.

Ohtani’s season as a pitcher was cut short in the second inning of his August 23rd start against the Reds. Prior to a UCL tear sidelining his pitching career until 2025, the superstar two-way player was tops of the Angels rotation. Shohei wasn’t nearly as sharp as his historic 2022 season, yet 3.14 ERA and 4.00 FIP/3.58 xFIP over 23 starts sat head and shoulders above his cohorts. Now the Angels have 132 innings and 2.4 WAR to account for in his open rotation slot.

Is Stability the Answer?

The Angels have a decent stock of starting pitchers. If there’s any knock against the rotation, it’s a nondescript collection of low-4.00s arms. L.A.’s core consisting of Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, and Patrick Sandoval was generally fine, combining for 78 starts and 6.6 WAR. Their outlooks are pretty boring to say the least – similar low-4.00s effectiveness with room to squeeze out a couple more starts and go longer in them. The math pencils out to somewhere in the 6.0-7.5 WAR range for this trio.

Tyler Anderson did, in fact, come way back down to earth after spiking with the Dodgers in 2022. And it was anything but a soft landing. Even though Anderson’s 4.10 xFIP indicated regression for last season, the veteran lefty fell back to nearly unplayable levels (5.43 ERA, 4.92 FIP/5.52 xFIP). He is inked for two more seasons and signs point to a similar 1.1 WAR season around the 5.00 FIP mark. At least he was much better than Jose Suarez’ April and Lucas Giolito’s August rotation cameos!

Plus the Angels got to kick the tires on a pair of rotation hopefuls, Chase Silseth and Kenny Rosenberg. Former Guardian Zach Plesac was also brought in this winter for experienced starting pitching depth, even if the 29-year-old never fully realized his potential in two full seasons as a starter. 23-year-old Silseth showed positive signs once promoted to the rotation in mid-July, striking out batters at a 29.9% clip. He’ll likely face some BABIP regression if stretched out to 15+ starts. Rosenberg isn’t quite the low-4.00s rookie that Silseth looks to be but should be in the mix as a sixth or seventh starter with Plesac squeezing his way in. Ron Washington has enough options this season – not necessarily dependable ones – to support his top three and maintain the rotation’s middling value.

— Bullpen —

The rotation’s pain extended well into the bullpen – a lingering sore spot for this franchise. After selling off Raisel Iglesias in 2022, the Angels have treated this part of their roster like a 73-win team would. Closer Carlos Estevez could benefit from positive BABIP regression, except that his transition from Denver to Anaheim wasn’t as beneficial as you would have thought. Unfortunate season or a 4.00+ harbinger? With the new and improved Robert Stephenson added to the back-end mix the Angels get another setup man-caliber reliever to improve reliability. I’m not sure about the 38.3% strikeout spike but the “new cutter” is legit. This bullpen sorely needs 1-WAR relievers like Stephenson to weather the season.

There weren’t major sore spots in last year’s bullpen, just a revolving door for a variety of arms. A couple bright spots made their MLB debuts in 2023 and should be tapped for larger roles. Jose Soriano was called up in June and never looked back. 42.0 innings of 3.64 ERA and 3.97 FIP/3.79 xFIP stood out from the crowd with plenty of strikeouts and ground balls. Ben Joyce deals 100 but has work to do this spring. Actually, they both have work to do to harness their control before Opening Day. If Washington can get 50+ innings of 4.00-FIP effectiveness from these two, Los Angeles might actually have a formidable back half along with the Stephenson/Estevez tandem.

Searching For Answers

Filling the Matt Moore go-to lefty role this year is…Matt Moore! After spending the first five months of 2023 with the Angels, the 34-year-old returns as a free agent. That reduces the concerns with relying more on Jose Suarez for that high-leverage specialist spot. Fellow aging relievers Adam Cimber and Luis Garcia were brought in as shots in the dark to round things out. That’s a bit harsh as Garcia’s track records supports 60 innings at 4.00 FIP. And it hasn’t been that long ago that Cimber was a very reliable option for Toronto.

Jimmy Herget’s slider came crashing down from elite status and Jose Suarez’s secondaries abandoned him after their strong 2022 seasons. A little home run luck for Herget and relief from a .340 BABIP should help moderate these guys’ contributions this year. But neither are overpowering strikeout guys so expect plenty of ups-and-downs as the season goes on. At least Suarez has starting pitcher experience but it’s the relief unit that really needs lefty help. Any improvement with this bullpen starts with Ben Joyce and Jose Soriano achieving their potential in 2024 – otherwise, expect more bottom third production.

WAGER: Angels Over 70.5 Wins (Offshore) / Over 71.5 (Domestic)

Look, I’ll be the first to admit getting suckered by the lure of a competitive Angels club in the past. Now I’m banking that they aren’t worse than they were last year…even without the game’s best hitter. And the devil on my shoulder keeps reminding me of the bad injury track records developing on the roster. I’ve crunched the obligatory numbers, double-checked playing time deductions for injuries, and keep coming back with a range that still has a couple games of cushion to the market price. It’s a bet!

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Oakland Athletics 2024 Win Total: Open 55, Now 56.5

2023 Result: Under 59.5 (50-112 / Pythag: 49)

It’s hard to imagine how a team could swing and miss so badly on a rock bottom season win total. But the A’s managed to pull it off in perfect harmony with owner John Fisher formally gaining approval of the franchise’s departure from Oakland. What a way to say goodbye to a dedicated fan base! A return to relevance is a long ways away, making their 2020 sprint to the AL West title seem even more distant. The market doesn’t think the team will be as bad so what have the A’s done to get a 6-win bump this year?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• T Gott (RP – RHP)
• A Wood (SP – RHP)
• R Stripling (SP – RHP)
• S Alexander (RP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• T May (RP – RHP)
• T Kemp (2B)
• M Pina (C)
• J Aguilar (1B)
• A Pruitt (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 63 – 65

— Position Players —

585 runs. Dead last in the league. The Coliseum is a run scoring desert yet there’s only so much blame you can assign to the park for the A’s poor performance. There is some blame though. Park adjustments smooth out Oakland’s bottom of the barrel offense (.223/.298/.370) to the fifth-lowest overall producing team. Their 149 stolen bases were sixth in the MLB – 45% of which swiped by Esteury Ruiz – and they hit a respectable 171 home runs, twentieth-most in baseball. In an odd twist, the organization that prioritized getting dudes on base back in the Moneyball era has lost its way. The Athletics simply could not get enough men on base to convert those stolen bases into runs and get more out of the long ball.

Returning OAK Hitters, Offensive Statistics (2023, >300 PA)

	HR	BB%	K%	Slash Line	wRC+	WAR
Z Gelof	14	8.7%	27.3%	.267/.337/.504	133	2.9
B Rooker	30	9.3%	32.7%	.246/.329/.488	127	2.0
R Noda	16	15.6%	34.3%	.229/.364/.406	123	2.0
E Ruiz	5	4.0%	19.9%	.254/.309/.345	86	1.2
S Langeliers	22	6.9%	29.2%	.205/.268/.413	87	0.7
JJ Bleday	10	13.9%	23.8%	.195/.310/.355	92	0.1
S Brown	14	7.9%	26.7%	.222/.286/.405	92	0.0
N Allen	4	5.2%	15.8%	.221/.263/.287	55	-0.1
A Diaz	4	4.9%	19.2%	.229/.280/.337	72	-0.4

So what’s the point in dropping a bunch of numbers in a table? Well, all of these guys except for Nick Allen are slated to be 2024 Opening Day starters. And five of the nine carry baggage in the form of strikeout rates greater than 25%. Like a wet blanket, Oakland’s three most productive hitters were among the biggest offenders. Is new manager Mark Kotsay and his coaching staff able to turn the tide in one offseason?

Brent Rooker’s MLB reboot paid off in spades, rewarding the club with a power surge highlighted by 30 bombs – and a fat strikeout rate. Skepticism with the Oakland DH pushing .500 slugging again this season is balanced with plus-10% hitting and no massive weakness against right-handed pitching. But the strikeout issue of 2021 did not relent in 2023. So it’s hard to expect that to change.

That’s the sort of thing Kotsay wants to curb with rookies Ryan Noda and Zack Gelof before it’s too late. Multiple projections don’t see much improvement in that department though, so I’m hesitant to be overly optimistic. 24-year-old second baseman Zack Gelof offers a decent mix of power and speed on the bases but expecting another 130+ wRC+ season with twice as much playing time is asking for trouble. First baseman Ryan Noda was the team’s worst strikeout offender and faces headwinds from a .347 BABIP. That’s a tough issue to overcome without much defensive or speed value. I’m about 2 wins lower on this trio in 2024 with Gelof having the biggest upside due to his diversified skillset. Small fielding improvements here and there add up, but won’t come close to knocking the Athletics out of a bottom-five ranking.

Conditional Upside

Gelof is a good segue to this season’s much-anticipated rookie, double play partner Darell Hernaiz. The 22-year-old is primed to be Oakland’s Opening Day shortstop – a bottom-three position group in 2023. Nick Allen simply could not cut it, hitting a measly.214/.260/.289 in two seasons with plus middle infield defense. Hernaiz may be more neutral fielding at shortstop but a modest 80-90 wRC+ bat moves the needle for the position. Allen does need to get right in AAA to save the A’s defensively after Aledmys Diaz’ rough year filling in there. Otherwise, don’t expect one of the MLB’s worst farm systems to bail out this position player group.

Is it time to start losing hope in recent seasons’ trade returns? Catcher Shea Langeliers came back in the Matt Olson trade with Atlanta and so far, not so good. Framing was a weak spot but he gunned down 31.1% of stolen base attempts. And there’s about 10% upside in his bat after fighting through a .246 BABIP. The positional upside extends to his partner, 22-year-old Tyler Soderstrom who struck out in 31.2% of plate appearances, slashed .160/.232/.240, and had a .213 BABIP. Even a replacement-level backup performance levels off his -1.0 WAR 2023 season. Two okay offensive seasons combined in a platoon role is a sneaky asset to monitor through Spring Training.

Your Guess Is As Good As Mine

Other trade chips Esteury Ruiz and JJ Bleday are fine for differing reasons. Ruiz couldn’t have been much worse in center field than last season and hit at an ultra-low 19.3% hard contact rate. But he can fly, swiping 67 bases at an 84% rate. Left-handed hitting Bleday has promise against righties but shares a very similar corner outfield profile with fellow outfielder Seth Brown. Righty Miguel Andjuar helps in a platoon role if – a big if – he’s able to stay healthy.

Third base could become a roulette wheel with newcomer Abraham Toro joining Aledmys and Jordan Diaz. There has to be a winning combination that makes the hot corner league-replacement, right? That would be better than 2023’s -1.0 WAR between the Diazes and Jace Peterson. It’s a really tough lineup to talk about, to be honest. Yet the bar was so low in 2023 that finding another 3-5 wins and a few percent of offense is not too much to ask…or is it?

— Rotation —

There’s usually a positive tone when someone talks about continuity. When it’s in the context of a bottom-rung rotation, however, that’s another story. Oakland’s starting pitchers graded out with the league’s lowest 1.8 WAR and second-worst 5.74 ERA. Working the second-lowest amount of innings (738.0) certainly did not help their valuation. JP Sears led the team with 32 starts and 172.1 innings as just two other pitchers made more than 20 starts: Ken Waldichuk and Paul Blackburn. Needless to say, the Oakland rotation has been a work in progress going on two seasons now.

Seeing What They’ve Got

Oakland will start the season with a rotation featuring several trade returns. Right-hander Luis Medina and lefties JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk came over from the Yankees in exchange for Frankie Montas in 2022. Although it’s been anything but a blockbuster deal, the A’s got numbers and the Yanks just moved on. Waldichuk’s season will be delayed due to elbow surgery though. That is unfortunate for the 26-year-old lefty looking to improve command after a rough rookie campaign (5.33 ERA and 5.86 FIP/5.22 xFIP as a starter). Anything sub-5.00 is a small step in the right direction for the rotation. But he has to get healthy first.

JP Sears has plenty of room for improvement as well – a recurring theme with Oakland’s starting pitchers. His fastball/slider/changeup repertoire disappointed to say the least, resulting in a 4.54 ERA with 5.15 FIP/5.10 xFIP baggage. The optimism with Sears centers on building from a full season of work that saw his first half 3.97 ERA inflate to 5.33 after the break. Projections start in the mid-4.00s with upside to the low-4.00s. Being a fly ball pitcher in Oakland could be worse. Medina is a ground ball guy with a lot of stuff to throw at hitters. Not getting the ball where he wanted it hurt him as a rookie. If his stuff looks sharper in Spring Training, expect sub-5.00 results. Not great, but better.

Pieces of the Puzzle

The well-traveled Ross Stripling and left-hander Alex Wood were brought in as plug-and-play starters with plenty of MLB experience under their belts. Wood may be past his prime but he slots into this rotation well as a mid-4.00s ground ball pitcher. Stripling has spent most of his career flipping back and forth between the rotation and bullpen without much dropoff in performance. With 20+ starts each, the A’s starting pitcher group should easily get 2 WAR out of these veterans.

Less noteworthy – but likely a factor at some point – is tall righty Joe Boyle, last summer’s return from Cincinnati for reliever Sam Moll. He has good stuff but he’s 24 with 16 Major League innings under his belt. Much like long time Athletic Paul Blackburn, Boyle fits in that generic mid-4.00s bucket. Depth via Wood and Stripling is sneakily important as Triple-A arms Osvaldo Bido, Freddy Tarnok, and 22-year-old Joey Estes don’t figure to be much better than league-replacement if needed. If they keep their heads above water and get Waldichuk back sooner than later, add 2-4 wins.

— Bullpen–

Oakland’s rock bottom pitching phenomenon did not spare the bullpen one bit. The second-largest workload was spread over 23 different pitchers with 10+ innings. Walks crippled the team’s late inning aspirations, enabling a brutal 5.20 ERA worth -0.1 WAR. Now Kotsay gets the honor of pulling the right levers after losing a handful of producers. Sam Moll and Shintaro Fujinami were dealt at the trade deadline. Austin Pruitt, Adrian Martinez, and Trevor May out in the offseason. The first two were good enough in their half-seasons to garner trades (1.0 WAR combined). The last two are notable for their 85.1 innings.

To be fair, Trevor May saved 21 games and only blew 3. But the 14.1% walk rate broke the camel’s back, Trevor retired and the closer role’s heir apparent is rookie Mason Miller. He showed off some filthy stuff especially after the September call-up. 60+ innings and sub-4.00 projections are exactly what this bullpen needs. Just as long as Fisher doesn’t ship him come July…

Mix and Match

Let’s assume for a minute that Mason Miller is a solid anchor for the bullpen. What about his back end partners? Lucas Erceg’s broad arsenal set the tone with 50 appearances in his MLB debut and could be the more reliable option among Dany Jimenez and journeyman Trevor Gott. Unfortunately, all but Gott are sketchy with the free passes – a phenomenon that is likely to persist throughout the unit. Lefties Scott Alexander and Sean Newcomb are suitable Sam Moll fill-ins. Newcomb comes with baggage via extra walks and fellow southpaw Kyle Muller might be in his last chance campaign. I’ve said enough about this crew. At least they can claim -0.1 WAR as their floor.

WAGER: Athletics Over 56.5 Wins

Call me a sucker for catching a falling knife as jagged as this one. It’s about as ugly as the Angels future position and it horns in on their upside. Ironically, I expected improvement with Oakland’s position players and starting pitchers last year too. This season I’m fading snake eyes in the rotation and looking for this team to grow a couple more notches. 60 wins as a floor? That’s ten more than last year – a shaky proposition that I am apparently willing to make.

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2024 AL West Projected Standings

1. Houston Astros (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (87-75)
3. Seattle Mariners (87-75)
4. Los Angeles Angels (75-87)
5. Oakland Athletics (64-98)

Turning Two

That’s two division previews in the books after we kicked things off last week with the AL Central. Thanks for checking us out and be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications.