Monday ushers in a handful of new series getting underway, joining a weekend carryover in Philadelphia. Divisional battles in Cleveland and Oakland shape up to be interesting early-season tests. This week’s Breakdown turns to Target Field with a pair of teams on the right trajectory as May comes into bloom. Time to fire up the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-6-2024 and look into a promising four-game set in Minnesota. BOL this week!
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins (SEA -130, 8)
Minnesota’s 12-game win streak was finally snapped by a grindy Boston club who pieced together a big stop. Naturally, just in time for the surging Mariners to visit the Twin Cities. Their approach to scoring late seems to be the key as the Twins run into the teeth of Seattle’s stingy rotation. It’s a group whose 3.02 ERA and 3.32 FIP/3.42 xFIP rank in the top three of all starting pitcher groups. Their top-third bullpen isn’t half bad either. Yet putting the brakes on Minnesota’s increasingly capable lineup is no layup by any means. In fact, the Twins share accolades as one of the most productive offenses the last couple weeks next to the Dodgers’ All-Star lineup.
MIN Offense, by Period (thru 5/4/2024)
| R | SB | Slash Line | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 151 (14th) | 18 (19th) | .239/.319/.402 | .295 |
| L14 Days | 84 (1st) | 13 (7th) | .309/.378/.515 | .363 |
| vs. LHP | 38 | 5 | .289/.342/.455 | .350 |
| vs. RHP | 113 | 30 | .222/.311/.383 | .275 |
Do things begin to peel back towards the Twins’ full-season numbers? Or have they righted the ship on their way toward my plus-3-7% expectation as a tough lineup against right-handed pitching? Well, there’s certainly a long runway for the season ahead for things to shake out. But as of now, Minnesota’s offense has leaned heavily on Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro, and Carlos Santana to deliver the goods against lefties. Outside of Max Kepler, however, lefty hitters Edouard Julien, Alex Kiriloff, and Trevor Larnach haven’t quite rounded into form. That could be trouble tonight.
L Castillo (R) vs. S Woods Richardson (R)
The Twins will have their hands full with a tough group of righty arms ahead of them, beginning with tonight’s starter Luis Castillo. Emerson Hancock, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert are right on his heels to round out the series. That’s one hell of a test ahead. Castillo has settled down nicely after a tough stretch of three 4-run outings to start the season. The 31-year-old’s track record pointed toward a rebound, as did the 3.29 FIP/3.05 xFIP over those three games. Compare that to a 6.89 ERA and a brutal .451 BABIP in that stretch
Now the numbers are aligned for Luis Castillo. After 7 starts averaging just under 6 IP per outing, the veteran has a 3.46 ERA and 2.93 FIP/3.01 xFIP to go with a declining .330 BABIP. There’s no doubt that Castillo and his rotation mates pose the largest challenge of the season to date for the Twins. His 6.13 K/BB ratio is sure to cool off some, though that level of effectiveness will really challenge Minnesota’s patience at the plate. Slightly below-neutral weather conditions shouldn’t hurt the pitchers’ causes either.
Anyone Up For a Duel?
23-year-old Simeon Woods Richardson has quickly earned himself a spot in the Twins rotation after cutting his teeth in Triple-A last year. Squaring off against a Mariners lineup that hasn’t quite gotten out of second gear is just what the doctor ordered. Their .219/.298/.358 against right-handed pitching provides Richardson with a decent transition from the offenses of Detroit and the White Sox in his first three starts of the 2024 campaign. Seattle’s park-adjusted production sits several percent above the Tigers and – to no surprise – well above Chicago’s. This is a step up in class for the young righty.
Simeon’s 43.5% hard contact rate and limited strikeouts (20.6% K, 7.1% swinging strike) are points to note. The .348 BABIP in his three outings did not punish him much at all; Chicago mustered 7 hits in each of their two whacks against him but only produced a pair of runs in each. Outside of Josh Rojas and the injured Dominic Canzone, however, Seattle hasn’t generated consistent production against right-handers in the first 5+ weeks. That’s good news for Woods Richardson whose 4.18 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA stare down his stingy 2.45 ERA and 2.20 FIP.
Holding Down the Fort
Both bullpens have operated in the top ten over the last couple weeks and are top-half groups in general. Few usage restrictions are in play tonight – especially so for Seattle, who comes to town with only one reliever having made back-to-back appearances. Cody Funderburk’s meltdown spared the better half of Minnesota’s group yesterday as their win streak came crashing to a halt. I make tonight’s contest in the -103 to -133 range for Luis Castillo and the Mariners. And I’m right around the game total of 8, keeping me away from this approach as well. In the interest of squeezing out a good return, is Castillo “To Record a Win” at a price point around +130 the right way to play a quiet night for the Twins’ bats?
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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