ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Green Bay Packers -135
Minnesota Vikings +285
Chicago Bears +550
Detroit Lions +2800
The NFC North looks eerily similar entering the 2021 season as it did one year ago with the oddsmakers positioning a Packers, Vikings, Bears and Lions order of record. The dominos of this division were aligned once Aaron Rodgers confirmed he’ll be giving this season another run in Green Bay. The Vikings do seem like the most logical threat to steal the division from them, as the Bears will be playing a little quarterback carousel, and the Lions are in yet another rebuild with a new head coach.
Chicago Bears
2020 Record – 8-8
2020 Record Against the Spread – 8-8
After moving on from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky the Chicago Bears are hopeful they’ve struck gold with their new top pick Justin Fields. Andy Dalton is going to get a quick opportunity to lead this team, however it’s just a matter of time before the Bears look ahead toward the future. Head coach Matt Nagy is in a precarious spot as he needs to win now with a declining defense and an offensive line that might make things tough on whoever is playing quarterback.
This could be a frustrating season yet again for the Chicago Bears offense for a different reason than usual. In previous seasons this team has lacked playmakers at the skill positions. There are some pieces to like on this offense headlined by Allen Robinson II and some exciting young wide receivers. David Montgomery proved he was a solid running back and even at this stage of his career, tight end Jimmy Graham can still be a red zone target. The problem is their offensive line really looks like it could be a liability protecting the quarterback. That’s most likely going to lead to a short stint for Andy Dalton as Field mobility might be needed to overcome the protection challenges. With newly signed Jason Peters slated to potentially start at left tackle, we can see the state of this offensive line and what will ultimately hold this team back this season.
For years the defense in Chicago has carried this team and allowed them to be anywhere from average to pretty good despite whatever struggles the offense may have had. The roster this year features most of the starters returning, which certainly sounds like a good thing. Unfortunately, this defense has been steadily declining, and quite simply is not as dynamic as it was a few years ago. Make no mistake about it, this is still one of the better defensive lineups in the league, it’s just not dominant enough to carry a team that’s going to struggle on offense. With the offensive line deficiencies, a rookie quarterback, and less effective defense, it could be a long season in Chicago, and perhaps Matt Nagy’s last.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 3rd (.550)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over -105, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-11
It’s always tough to go against a really good defense like the one they have in Chicago. When you really look at their schedule, unless their offense can make a huge leap though it’s hard to figure out where a lot of the wins will come from. The real goal of this season for the Bears is developing and evaluating rookie Justin Fields.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under – Team Totals Under
You can’t put a ton of stock into the preseason, but the Chicago Bears offense looked absolutely inept with a slew of three and outs. Justin Fields will make some exciting plays, but this team will struggle to score points. Even in a modern high-scoring league, we could see some 13 point totals out of this Chicago team.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Allen Robinson II (WR), Bears (DST)
Allen Robinson is not a secret to fantasy players by any stretch of the imagination. He is undervalued overall when you look at his production though, even with less than amazing quarterback play. He’s really the only consistent option on their offense. No secret in grabbing their defense most weeks as well or as a solid seasonal play.
Detroit Lions
2019 Record – 5-11
2019 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
A new quarterback in Detroit as well, as Jared Goff takes the reigns in new head coach Dan Campbell’s first season at the helm. Without piling on, no team has had more rebuilding seasons since the turn of the century than these Detroit Lions. (Well maybe the Browns, but they finally got it working). The Lions have a lot of work to do as they’re installing a new offense and defense and mixing and matching players through the draft and free agency.
The good news in Detroit centers around their offensive line and their plan to build their team through developing their big men. The team used it’s first pick on OT Penei Sewell to help bolster what was already a decent offensive line. As this team determines who will be their quarterback of the future, having the right players in front will give them a huge start. At the moment the team is rolling with Jared Goff who was acquired via trade with the Rams in exchange for local mainstay Matthew Stafford. Goff has a chance to prove some naysayers wrong as many believed his success with Los Angeles was strictly due to Sean McVay and their system and play-calling. Count the BetCrushers in as non-believers in Jared Goff. It’s hard to see him succeeding in this offense, particularly with the lack of weapons in the passing game. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is a stud and will offer some comfort for Goff, but the wide receivers are vastly unproven and lacking depth. The team is hopeful that giving guys who were after-thoughts with other clubs, (Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams) will pay off with them stepping up to the challenge. One thing that can help is second year back D’Andre Swift and free agent Jamaal Williams toting the rock. Goff and the Lions will need a power running game if their passing game is going to have any chance to succeed.
The defense had all sorts of issues a season ago and it doesn’t appear they’ll be able to do a lot better this year. The former connection to Matt Patricia saw the team bringing in some Patriot castoff afterthoughts like Jamie Collins and Trey Flowers. They added some contributors with Michael Brockers and Alex Anzalone, but this team is really lacking big play talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions are hopeful that last year’s top pick Jeff Okudah can step up in his second season, and be the playmaker they drafted him to be. At the end of the day it looks like it might be another tough season for the Lions defense, and in general.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 6th (.529)
Team Win Total Odds – 5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-13
With 17 games on the schedule, having a win total of just 5 would seem like an easy go-over. Obviously, it’s set at 5 for a reason, and that’s because not much is expected out of this Lions team. There’s very little reason to believe that this won’t be a bottom three team in the league that’s going to get blown out of some games against top competition.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
Finding value fading the Lions may be tough as Vegas isn’t going to think too highly of them as we can already see. That being said, this team has road blowouts written all over it. Don’t be afraid to lay the big number when the Lions are traveling to a top tier opponent.
Fantasy Players To Watch , T.J. Hockenson (TE)
Buyer beware if you’re looking at taking offensive players on the Lions this year. D’Andre Swift is loaded with potential, however the team looks like they want to get Jamaal Williams some work in the running game, and Detroit will be trailing during a lot of second halves. There is some value in tight end T.J. Hockenson as he should see a ton of targets with the lack of proven talent on the outside, and with Jared Goff’s history of feeding the tight end position.
Green Bay Packers
2020 Record – 13-3
2020 Record Against the Spread – 10-6
After back to back 13-3 seasons the NFL and most Packer fans are excited that Aaron Rodgers will return to take another crack at getting back to the Super Bowl. This is almost certainly a “last dance” situation for this current Packers team as they’re going all in hoping to clear those final hurdles. This team’s past two drafts have been widely criticized, not so much for who they took, but for not drafting to address team needs. Have they done enough to shore up the slim deficiencies that kept them from advancing to the big game the last two years?
Even though he annoyed some fans with his offseason antics, quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning to the Packers gives them a legitimate shot to compete for a Super Bowl title. Rodgers was so good a season ago that it was almost a yawn when he’d play near perfect football games. Having shown no signs of slowing down, we’ll assume he’s good to go in what looks like his final rodeo with the team. He has his top target Davante Adams back and most of his offensive unit, although we’ll want to keep an eye on newly drafted center Josh Myers. It’s worth noting also that All-Pro left tackle David Bhaktiari is returning from a major injury, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll be himself early on in the season. Realistically, Rodgers will have great command over this offense and the continuity with the running game and in the passing game should allow this team to score when needed as they did a year ago.
The defense in Green Bay is designed to make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks and passing offenses, which is something it often does. Another strong campaign from pass rusher Za’Darius Smith, and one of the best secondarys in the league should continue that dominance versus the pass. We’re still concerned about the interior of this defense, specifically against stopping the run. The Packers were manhandled and gashed against power running backs, and really had troubles when teams weren’t in obvious passing situations. There’s obviously a lot to love about this defense, particularly in the secondary, but it just feels like they’re going to have the same challenges they had in the prior year.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 4th (.542)
Team Win Total Odds – 10 Wins (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-5
For a team that won 13 games in consecutive seasons, the total set at only 10 seems a bit low. Their schedule isn’t easy, but it seems like this team should be able to capture the division and get to a dozen wins as long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and in the lineup. If you like to place future bets, the over on this one seems pretty solid.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Packers are one of the most publicly wagered teams in the league every year. With Rodgers playing QB novice fans are quick to lay points with them even on the road. Going back since 2015 this team has been one of the worst in the league against the spread. Even if they’re able to win more games this year it’s likely they’ll continue to struggle covering the spread.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Aaron Jones (RB), Davante Adams (WR)
If the Packers use him correctly and stick to the running game you can expect to see some big numbers from Aaron Jones. He has the ability to grind yards out every week and should see the end zone with a fair amount of regularity. Davante Adams is now considered a top receiver in the league but he is worth every penny or draft position you need to spend to get him.
Minnesota Vikings
2020 Record – 7-9
2020 Record Against the Spread – 6-10
You get the feeling that the Vikings and head coach Mike Zimmer were absolutely sick of getting pushed around last season. The team spent the offseason really working to address the needs and made some investments on veteran players in an effort to get them over the hump in the NFC North. Had Aaron Rodgers not returned, the Vikings may have run away with the division, instead they find themselves in the familiar spot of playing catch up and hoping to overtake their rivals to the east.
For a guy that takes all sorts of grief around the league, quarterback Kirk Cousins really put together a pretty darn good campaign in 2020. Cousins finally seems to have settled into Minnesota, and he should continue to have success riding the powerful legs of Dalvin Cook, and utilizing his two highly skilled receivers in Adam Thielen and second year star Justin Jefferson. The Vikings offensive line lacks star power or recognition, however they play very well together as a unit and are a great run blocking bunch. Although Minnesota will pull out the occasional creative play, this group likes to line up and push the defense backwards and they’re really good at that. Expect similar metrics for this offense as we saw last year, and possibly even better if the defense is improved.
Speaking of the defense, they absolutely should be improved from the group that was undermanned and over its head in 2020. The biggest improvements should come from the revamped defensive line, which takes over for what was a cast of no-name players who were simply overmatched last season. The team welcomes back physical specimen Danielle Hunter at the edge as well as long time start Everson Griffin for some depth. Maybe more importantly the team loaded up on the interior bringing in proven run stuffers Dalvin Tomlinson, Michael Pierce and Sheldon Richardson to stiffen up versus opposing runners. Their linebacking trio of veterans Anthony Barr, Nick Vigil and leader Eric Kendricks are as solid as you’ll find across the league and the secondary should also be improved with the additions of veterans Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland at the corners. Harrison Smith continues to play at a high level, and what this defense may lack in pure speed, they make up for with experience and toughness.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 5th (.531)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over +105, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
Whether or not the Vikings can leapfrog GB in the division remains to be seen, but regardless, this team should be fighting for a playoff spot when it’s all said and done. From top to bottom they are one of the most complete teams in the league, and with Kirk Cousins consistently playing solid football and leaning on the running game, Minnesota should win double digit games.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
If you were studious enough to figure out the formula you know that Kirk Cousins played very well against sub .500 competition and very poorly against over .500 competition.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Kirk Cousins (QB), Dalvin Cook (RB), Justin Jefferson (WR)
After all the Cousins analysis you might wonder why we’d have Cousins listed as a QB to watch. As is the case with the previously mentioned prop bets playing Cousins in certain matchups can actually really help you. With his injury history you’re playing with some fire taking Dalvin Cook in a league setting, however he is poised to have a fantastic season if he can steer clear of the injury report. Justin Jefferson will be a wanted man and with good reasons. Don’t expect a sophomore slump, look for him to elevate his play and establish himself as not only the clear number one receiver in Minnesota, but one of the top talents across the league.
