PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-1

SEASON RESULTS:
62-60

Week 17 Recap:

It’s difficult to recap anything in week 17 without thinking of the emotional events of Monday Night Football and the now optimistic recovery of Bills safety Damar Hamlin. The impact Hamlin had on the league and the world will likely be felt for years to come. As far as our six player prop bets we had in week 17, the cancellation of the Bengals Bills game took us down to five prop bets for the week as our Josh Allen yardage wager was voided. Based on the first six minutes of the game, it sure looked like he was going to sail well past the mark, but we’ll never know. In the grand scheme of things, like most people, our focus was on the heroic efforts of medical personnel during that game. As far as our other five wagers were concerned, we had a productive 4-1 mark. Our lone loss was also our lone fade as we had the under for Kenneth Walker III and his rushing yardage total against a solid Jets defense. Walker broke a 70 yard run on his first carry of the game, which made that bet a loser before it even got up off the ground. We had a pretty easy cover with Devonta Smith’s over yardage, and a few close but solid covers with Brian Robinson, Jr., Chris Godwin and even Russell Wilson, who was able to get it done. 5-1 would have certainly been nice, but we’ll take a 4-1 to get us back to almost being respectable on the season.

Week 18 Preview:

The final regular season of the NFL week is always a little tricky based on what’s going on amongst the respective teams. Not only is it difficult to know who is focused and playing, it’s also hard to even find posted prop spreads online. The sportsbooks are waiting for more confirmation on who is in and who is out just as we are. There’s been a recent trend over the last couple of seasons with people finding player incentives and looking to capitalize on them. While that seemed to be a little flashy, the books seem to have equally caught up with that approach. As a result, with only a handful of games posted, we’re slim with just three prop bets at the time of posting. We’ve got a pair of quarterbacks and one wide receiver looking to bounce back after a rough performance in week 17. Cheers to the final regular season weekend!

Our Picks:

Jarrett Stidham – Over 237.5 Yards Passing (-115)

We’ll be the first to admit we did not see the impressive performance from Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders offense coming against the 49ers last Sunday. It was clear Stidham was there to state his case as a starter in the league, and the Raiders had no quit in them, taking the Niners as far as they could before ultimately falling. Las Vegas should continue playing hard as they wrap up the season with a home contest against the Kansas City Chiefs. KC has a lot to play for, as they want to secure the number one seed in the AFC (we won’t discuss any of the neutral site scenarios). With Patrick Mahomes looking to break some marks of his own, the Chiefs offense should be rolling as usual. As a result, there’s little reason to believe that Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders won’t also have a nice performance on that side of the ball. For starters, they’re as healthy offensively as they’ve been as Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are all available to throw to. The one player that is a bit banged up is running back Josh Jacobs, which could force even more emphasis on the passing game if he’s hobbled at all. For as good as the Chiefs are on offense, they’re almost equally poor on the defensive side of the ball, and could be without one of their top DBs if L’Jarius Sneed is unable to go. Playing at home, the Raiders should be fine running their offensive plan without a ton of noise and distractions. We’re projecting Stidham to be closer to the 260 to 270 yard range in this game so this line seems way too low for us and worth a play.

Justin Jefferson – Over 92.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The Packers and Jaire Alexander got the best of the Vikings and Justin Jefferson last weekend, but alas, not all is lost for Minnesota. They will still be heading to the playoffs, and Jefferson has the opportunity to make big plays along the way. This Sunday he faces a Bears defense that is arguably the worst in the league, and is playing with Nathan Peterman as their starter on the other side of the ball. That should tee things up nicely for a rebound for the Vikings as this sure feels like a prime Kirk Cousins dominant spot. Although the weather will be chilly, it appears it won’t be brutally cold or windy, so throwing the ball shouldn’t be too big of an obstacle in Chicago. It would take a monster performance pushing 200 yards receiving, but Jefferson has a legitimate shot to challenge the season passing yardage record of Calvin Johnson, albeit with an extra game. It’s unlikely, but not impossible that he could get there in this game. If he has his sights on 200 yards, he can fall 100 shy and still cash this prop. In the first matchup between these two teams Jefferson had a smooth 154 yards, and that was when the Bears defense was slightly healthier and better. We’re willing to roll the dice that JJettas will rebound after his tough outing against the Packers.

Jared Goff – Under 253.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The odds are not in the favor of the Detroit Lions making the postseason despite being one of the best stories of the season. An unfortunately slow start and injuries created an uphill climb, that despite a great second half of the season, means they’ll likely not make the playoffs. It’s certainly not unfathomable though, as if they can get some help leading into their primetime showdown with the Green Bay Packers, they could be playing to get in. Part of the issues for the Lions this season has been their less than stellar play in road games away from the friendly confines of their dome stadium. Front and center with that is quarterback Jared Goff who has substantially better numbers at home, as opposed to on the road. In a cold nighttime contest, we’re expecting the running backs to be the headline performers for both teams, and possibly a lower scoring game, despite the over/under sitting at 49 points. (We like the under as you can probably gather). If you’ve watched the Packers this season, and particularly over their recent hot streak, they’ve been defending the pass really well. They’re certainly vulnerable on the ground, but their secondary has put the clamps on some good receivers and quarterbacks of late. See last week’s performances from Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson as examples. Although Goff has been a really good quarterback this year and had some monster stat lines, this doesn’t figure to be the spot where that continues. We’ll fade the Lions QB, although we’ll hope this game has some meaning at the time of kickoff.

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