PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-5

SEASON RESULTS:
9-15

Week 3 Recap:

A .500 week for player props would normally be frustrating, however when we were awful in week one, and just mildly better in week two, we’ll take it for now. As long as the trajectory stays in that direction, we’ll eventually work our way out of the early season prop betting slump. A quick recap had us winning again by fading Tom Brady’s passing total for a second straight week, with more to come on that. Stefon Diggs fought off heat exhaustion and managed to squeak past his receptions in the humidity of Miami. Michael Pittman, Jr. returned from injury and as the Colts lone receiving weapon was able to get over his yardage total as well. Our other two wins were James Robinson blowing by his total, and Saquon Barkley cashing in on a solid Monday Night Football performance. The most disappointing loss of the weekend was David Montgomery, who left in the first quarter due to injury. His backup Khalil Herbert came in and absolutely dominated a Texans defense, which should have been a cover for Montgomery. We also whiffed with Tyreek Hill who was really a non-factor as the Dolphins offense was barely on the field in their upset win against the Bills. We also tried to ride the gravy train of Jalen Hurts rushing and Cooper Kupp’s receiving, and those finally came to a loss. 6-4 would have been a nice first winning weekend, but we’ll take the handicapping as a solid win and move on to week number four.

Week 4 Preview:

Our plays this week begin with fading the previous two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. This will be the third week in a row we’re going under on Tom Brady, who has had a slow start to the season. We’re riding another wide receiver for the third time this year as well, although the rest of our selections are first time plays in 2022. Seven total selections that we think finally crack the winning player prop code for us as we head towards the end of the first quarter of the season.

Our Picks:

Tom Brady – Under 270.5 Yards Passing (-110)

One of the marquee games and matchups of the weekend is Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes when the Chiefs head to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers. The city of Tampa mostly dodged Hurricane Ian, and the Bucs return home after trying to relocate and practice in South Florida for the week. The best news for Brady is he’ll get Mike Evans back from suspension, and could possibly have Julio Jones and or Chris Godwin available as well. Having that tier of player back will no doubt help Brady look more like the QB we’re used to seeing in terms of throwing the football. Despite what we fully expect to be a better performance statistically for TB12, this number still seems just a bit high for an offense that has struggled to throw the ball consistently in their first three games. Brady is always a threat to top 300 yards passing, but against an improved defense for the Chiefs, we’ve got him projected for more around the 250 yard mark here. We’ll keep riding this under until he makes us pay for it.

Michael Pittman, Jr. – Over 67.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

When you look at some of the top receiving threats around the league you’ll generally see their receiving totals in the 75-90 yard range on a weekly basis. Michael Pittman, Jr. is clearly a WR1 and realistically the only passing threat on the Colts offense, yet his totals are still in the 60s to begin the season. The Colts have a tough matchup against the Titans at home, but this hasn’t been the same lockdown defense we saw from Tennessee a season ago. Pittman will have some nice matchups and Matt Ryan should have time to get him the football. The fact of the matter for this Colts offense is they simply don’t have anyone besides Pittman to throw the ball to. Jonathan Taylor is sure to see a lot of work, but that also means some single coverage and soft zones for Pittman in the receiving game. Until his totals catch up with some of the other number one receivers in the league, we’ll keep hammering the over here.

Devin Singletary – Over 14.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

A week ago Devin Singletary had a career high in receptions against the Dolphins, as their two high safety shell forced the Bills to check the ball down routinely. In a copycat league, it’s very possible the Ravens will run a similar scheme to force the Bills to be patient and not make mistakes. That would mean continued emphasis towards Singletary in the passing game as he could see more work in the passing game yet again. The weather also looks as though it could play a factor as rain is expected on Sunday in Baltimore. That could limit some of the throws down the field and force shorter routes, and again check downs and screen passes. Despite sharing some time with Zack Moss and rookie James Cook, Singletary still gets the largest percentage of snaps, and should continue to grab some receptions on Sunday.

Nick Chubb – Over 89.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Many fantasy football owners opted for players like Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey as the top picks in this year’s drafts. The most consistently productive rusher has been the Browns Nick Chubb, as he continues to run hard behind one of the roughest offensive lines in the league. The Browns head to Atlanta to take on a surprisingly solid Falcons team that has played well on both sides of the ball. Despite that solid start on defense, they’ll face their toughest rushing matchup of the season when Chubb and teammate Kareem Hunt take to the field. Chubb is again averaging well over 5 yards per carry, and the Browns are more than content with Jacoby Brissett at the helm to run the ball all day if they can. This should be another 20 carry game for Chubb, so eclipsing 89 yards seems very probable.

Chris Olave – Over 59.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

There have been some really impressive rookie performances in 2022, and right at the top of the list is Saints wideout Chris Olave. The first round pick has proven to be sound route runner and shown the speed necessary to beat NFL cornerbacks. The youngster will face off against veterans in the Minnesota Vikings secondary when the Saints head to London. After receiving 13 targets the past two weeks from quarterback Jameis Winston, he’ll be catching passes from Andy Dalton for the first time Sunday morning. While it’s unclear what kind of chemistry the two may have, it’s really more of a necessity for the Saints that Olave will need to be heavily involved in the passing game. Starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will both miss the contest, making Olave the clear number one target for Dalton at receiver. Coming off of a 147 and 80 yard performances, respectively, we’ll roll the dice that the young wideout can hit 60 yards across the pond.

Rashaad Penny – Over 58.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

After a strong finish in 2021 and a good preseason, there was a lot of talk about Rashaad Penny heading into the year. The big back has yet to get going as the Seahawks are still adapting to life without Russell Wilson on offense. If there was ever a breakout opportunity for Penny, it would be this road game against the Detroit Lions. With several of the Lions offensive weapons slated to miss the game, this one should have more of a throwback running game script that you’d think. We’re expecting the Seahawks to try to win the line of scrimmage against a Lions defense that can still be soft against big running backs. Outside of a dud of a game against a really stout 49ers defense, Penny has broken 60 yards in his other two starts. This is clearly a matchup that should see him get to at least that marker and potentially much past it.

Matthew Stafford – Under 259.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams enter their game against the 49ers looking very average on the offensive side of the football. They’ve made some plays, and of course have Cooper Kupp at receiver, however beyond that it’s been a bit of a struggle. They get a huge test in prime time when they head to San Francisco to face what has been arguably the top defense in the league through three games this season. This figures to be a bruising matchup where each team will try to out-physical the other, and not make the big mistake. A total of 259.5 feels a little low for a gunslinger like Matthew Stafford, but remember, there is still some questions regarding the health of his throwing hard. Add in the fact that San Francisco can get after opposing quarterbacks, and we’re likely to see short and quick throws from the Rams in this game. Stafford has been pretty consistent with his yardage totals, but he’s failed to crack 250 in two of the three games they’ve played so far. Unless the Rams fall behind early, it seems like his yards should land somewhere around where they’ve been landing, and we expect him to stay under.

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