Preview:

Super Wild Card Weekend is back with six games all featuring teams who faced each other during the regular season. This includes three contests between divisional foes, and for the second straight season a Monday night battle. Unlike previous seasons where spreads were relatively tight in the Wild Card round, this season sees some bigger discrepancies in many of the contests. Are the large point spreads enough to steer the public towards taking the underdogs, or will the sportsbooks take it on the chin if the favorites do, in fact, blowout their inferior opponents? We’ve got a few accomplished quarterbacks, and several making their playoff debuts. There seems to be a little something for every fan and bettor, and we’re ready to dive right in. If you don’t want the entire breakdown, feel free to scroll to the bottom of the article where we have our official wagers broken out. Best of luck and enjoy the NFL playoffs!

NFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

vs.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8) at San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)

The playoffs kick off Saturday afternoon with a battle of NFC West foes in what many consider a mismatch. Despite starting a rookie quarterback, the San Francisco 49ers are near double-digit favorites against the Seattle Seahawks. Will the familiarity and rivalry between these teams turn this into a competitive contest, or is this truly a David vs. Goliath matchup?

THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ON OFFENSE:

After a hot start to the season, the Seahawks and quarterback Geno Smith have cooled a bit heading into the playoffs. They’ll need their “A” game if they’re going to pull off the upset against the top defense in the NFL. The 49ers boast the overall top defense in the league, including the best rushing stop unit. That’s a trouble spot for for a team like Seattle who wants to establish the running game as the focal point of their offense. Kenneth Walker III will get his opportunities, at least early, however it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do much with them. That puts a lot of pressure on Geno Smith and the passing game to move the chains and get points on the board. If you look at the overall stat line when these teams last played, Smith actually played pretty well, although he was held in check until the 4th quarter for the most part. The good news for the Seahawks is they’re mostly healthy heading into this game, including their offensive line. Their line has their work cut out for them against the also healthy defense of the 49ers. Nick Bosa is the defensive player of the year, and arguably one of the biggest game changers on that side of the football in the entire league. During the latter portion of the season, Geno Smith was more turnover prone, and if he’s under heavy pressure that could lead to more mistakes. Conversely, if the Seahawks can somehow keep Smith clean in the pocket, they have a chance with their receivers to win some matchups against the 49ers secondary. You can’t really find much of a weakness on the 49ers defense, but if you had to identify one area where they might be slightly vulnerable it’s with their depth at cornerback.

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:

As we all expected, Brock Purdy gets the start for San Francisco in an effort to take this talented team to the Super Bowl. All Purdy has done is come in and master the Niners offense and orchestrate them to one of the top winning streaks of any team in the league. Purdy shouldn’t have to do a whole lot in this one, as San Francisco should be able to attack the rush defense of the Seahawks. Seattle finished the season with one of the worst run defenses in the league, and now have the challenge of slowing down Christian McCaffrey who is playing as well as he has in his career. The Niners also have Elijah Mitchell back which gives them an additional boost running the ball. Speaking of returning to the lineup, they also have Deebo Samuel back, which gives them their full arsenal of weapons to attack the Seahawks. The sometimes forgotten man in that heavy arsenal may be tight end George Kittle, who has put up his best efforts with Brock Purdy at quarterback. The Seahawks have also struggled defending tight ends, so if they’re loaded up to slow down the run, Kittle could be in line for another big game.

KEY STATS:
– The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
– The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
– The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents

PUBLIC MONEY: – Seattle Seahawks 68%

THE SKINNY:
It’s really not surprising that both sharp money and public money seems to be coming in on the Seattle Seahawks. Traditional betting would say that a divisional game in the playoffs will probably be low scoring and close, and in the NFL world, getting that many points screams underdog bet. We’re going a little against the grain here with a couple of thoughts as to why. First, this game is in San Francisco, which should help Brock Purdy feel comfortable in his first playoff appearance as quarterback. Second, the recent history of this 49er team has shown that they’re just flat out dominating their opponents on both sides of the ball. They’ve racked up quite a few double digit wins during their streak, and really only had one close game along the way against the Raiders. Finally, this Seahawks defense just isn’t good enough to slow down all of the different versatile options that SF has on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle’s somewhat Cinderella season has to end at some point, and after just squeaking into the playoffs, they’re going to get bumped out pretty quickly.

BetCrushers Lean: San Francisco 49ers -9.5
San Francisco 49ers 28, Seattle Seahawks 19

AFC WILD CARD GAME ONE

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

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Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers played in a rout won by the Jags early in the 2022 season. They’ll face off again in Jacksonville with a prime time spotlight on their talented young quarterbacks, both making their first playoff appearances. After difficult starts to the year, each team enters the playoffs playing well, and with their eyes on a trip to the Divisional round. Expect some points with these offenses that have proven to be explosive throughout the season.

THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS ON OFFENSE:

Let’s address the elephant in the room to start our breakdown of the Chargers offense. Mike Williams is going to be a game-time decision and likely hobbled when LA faces the Jaguars on Saturday. All of that could have been avoided had Brandon Staley not played his key players in a meaningless week 18 game. If Williams can’t go, that could end up being a really costly mistake for an offense that was finally getting itself healthy at the right time. The receivers for the Chargers are going to play a critical role in this game as the team throws the ball as much as any in the league. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley will get some token handoffs, but for Los Angeles to win this game, they’re going to need to be explosive with their passing game. The good news is, Keenan Allen is at full strength and has played really well since coming back from his injury early in the season. Allen runs the majority of his routes out of the slot, which is an area the Jaguars have consistently struggled to defend. He’ll be a busy man on Saturday, as will tight end Gerald Everett, a player who has been very solid, if not spectacular. As is the case in many games, the offensive line play is going to be critical for the Chargers. The Jaguars have created some havoc with their pressure off of the edge with Josh Allen, rookie Travon Walker and K’Lavon Chaisson. Chargers left tackle Jamaree Salyer is a key player to keep an eye one in his efforts to protect quarterback Justin Herbert’s blind side. As is the case in most close football games, the team that can not make the big mistake is likely to end up the winner.

THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ON OFFENSE:

There was a small spurt in the season when the Jaguars offense looked unstoppable both running and throwing the football. They haven’t looked quite as dynamic in recent weeks, and it’s partly because they haven’t needed to, and more so because they’ve run the football well. The passing game for Jacksonville can absolutely be electric, but teams have to respect the run in order for that to happen. That’s good news for them in this matchup as Travis Etienne, Jr. is poised for a big game against the Chargers defense. Although they have been better of late, the Chargers rush defense has not been good overall. Expect Etienne to have some success, which should help open things up in the passing game. Just as was mentioned on the other side of the ball, the protection that quarterback Trevor Lawrence gets is going to be crucial to his and their success throwing. With Cam Robinson out for the year, Walker Little draws the start at left tackle, which means he’s going to also draw Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa providing a pass rush for LA. It can be difficult to scheme and protect against one elite pass rusher, but when you have to account for two, it becomes even tougher. With Joey Bosa back in the lineup, the Chargers should be able to rattle Lawrence a bit, and possibly even force some mistakes and rushed throws. While none of the Jaguars receivers would be considered great, they do boast four very good targets when you include tight end Even Engram. That’s a problem for defenses, unless Lawrence is under heavy pressure.

KEY STATS:
– The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games
– The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Los Angeles Chargers 59%

Get used to seeing these teams and quarterbacks in the playoffs as both should be regulars for the next decade in the AFC. It’s almost a shame with all of the quarterback and team talent in the AFC that some of these guys are going to finish their careers likely never winning a Super Bowl. Who gets the upperhand in their young careers and advances to the divisional round in this game? Early sharp money came in on the Jaguars, and it really makes sense. They’re at home, they’re on a win streak, and they’ve looked really good at times. We’re going the more square route here and taking the road team as a slight favorite in this game. At the start of this season many people thought the Chargers could be in the mix for the top team in the league. Injuries derailed those thoughts pretty quickly, however this team is as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season. We’re expecting Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa to be the difference in this game, in what we’re guessing will be one of the more exciting contests of the weekend. The Jaguars are going to be a problem for teams in the AFC in the immediate future, but we’re going to take the Chargers to come away with the road win.

BetCrushers Lean: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 23

AFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

vs.

Miami Dolphins (9-8) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -13.5 (-115)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)

After splitting their games during the regular season the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins have a rubber match to open the Sunday card. The home teams held serve with a scorching hot game in Miami and a frigidly cold match in Buffalo just a few weeks ago. With Tua Tagovailoa ruled out the Dolphins will look to Skylar Thompson in an effort to pull off the upset of their AFC East rivals. The Bills will need to stay focused to avoid looking ahead to a potential rematch of their unfinished contest against the Bengals next round.

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ON OFFENSE:

For the majority of the season with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback the Miami Dolphins team was built around an explosive offense. On Sunday they’ll have to lean on rookie Skylar Thompson to lead the charge in what is sure to be a hostile environment in a fired up Orchard Park. Thompson was never supposed to be on the field this season, and has looked like an unproven rookie when he has been in the lineup. He’ll face a Bills defense that hasn’t looked nearly as good as it did earlier in the season before the losses of critical pieces like Micah Hyde and Von Miller. Hyde may return, later in the playoffs if the Bills advance, but at least for this game the defense will be without the former Pro Bowler. That gives the Dolphins a sliver of hope as the Bills secondary has not been great, and will of course also be without Hyde’s normal backup Damar Hamlin. Miami wants to get the ball into the hands of their speedy playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who both played well in their last visit to Buffalo. It’s not just the fact of Skylar Thompson playing QB that could make this tough, as both receivers enter the game a little banged up and not 100% healthy. Without big games from these two, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins doing enough on offense to overtake the Bills. In their last meeting the Dolphins started with a different approach trying to run the ball at the Bills, and did so with some early success. That also gets more challenging this week as the team will probably be without Raheem Mostert, and has three starters on the offensive line also hobbled. All of this collectively means the Dolphins are going to not only have to play their best offensive game of the season, but they may need some help with special teams and possibly even some trick plays.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

In week 18 the Buffalo Bills got a boost from their own special teams unit as Nyheim Hines brought two kickoffs back for touchdowns, including the opening kick in dramatic fashion. The team will lean a little more on their traditional approach in this game, which means you’ll see a lot of Josh Allen. The Bills will mix in some running with Devin Singletary and James Cook, but the Dolphins have been pretty good against the run with their front seven. Where they have not been good is figuring out how to slow Allen down as a thrower or a runner. Of every team he’s faced in the league, Allen has had his overall best performances against this Dolphins defense. Early in the game don’t expect Allen to use his legs much as he and the offense will want to test Miami and save some things for what they hope is a deeper playoff run. If the game stays tight or the Bills do fall behind, that approach will change and we’ll see Allen attempt to take over the game any way he needs to. There will probably be a continued effort to get Stefon Diggs the football, although he’ll draw a lot of man coverage from Xavien Howard, the Dolphins top corner. By the lofty standards of what we’ve grown to expect from Howard, it’s been a down season, but he’s still capable of making big plays and will certainly be up for the challenge of facing Diggs again. The Bills have been searching for some support for Diggs, and we could see it in this game as the rest of the Miami secondary has shown some vulnerability and a pension for giving up some big plays. There’s nothing Buffalo would like to see more than the Gabe Davis they saw a year ago in the playoffs who was flat out uncoverable. Another player to keep an eye on is tight end Dawson Knox who has scored a touchdown in five straight games. For the Dolphins to be able to slow this offense down, they’re going to need a strong pass rush from players like Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. The pass rush has been a bit of a disappointment, but all could be forgiven if they can force some mistakes and figure out a way to stymie the Bills offense.

KEY STATS:
– The Dolphins are 0-6 straight up in their last 6 games played at Buffalo
– The Dolphins are 1-8 straight up in their last 9 games vs. the Bills
– The Bills are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games
– The Bills are 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Buffalo Bills 76%

You never want to say a team doesn’t have a chance in a playoff game, and the Dolphins certainly have some talent on their roster. It’s too bad Tua can’t go in this game as it likely would have been a pretty heavyweight matchup if he were at the helm, much like their prime time matchup a few weeks back. Whether you believe Tua is the guy long-term in Miami or not, he’s substantially better than Skylar Thompson, who could have a rough go of it on Sunday in the cold. Although weather doesn’t look like it’ll be a huge factor, you can’t ignore the fact the Dolphins have last 10 games in row in weather below 40 degrees, which include a couple this season. At the end of the day, it’s just too difficult to believe that Thompson can take down Josh Allen in his home stadium, especially with the emotions that are still pouring through Buffalo. Miami unfortunately limped into the playoffs, and they’ll probably be limping out after a loss in this game. The question is, by how much, and can they cover the spread? From a breakdown standpoint the answer is no, but with a spread that high, could the backdoor potentially be open for the underdog?

BetCrushers Lean: Buffalo Bills -13.5
Buffalo Bills 30, Miami Dolphins 13

NFC WILD CARD GAME TWO

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

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New York Giants (9-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)

Another rematch in the NFC when the Minnesota Vikings host the New York Giants in what is anticipated to be a closely played contest. Both teams were able to rest some players in anticipation of the playoffs, and each have confidence behind their first year head coaches. After a season of nail-biting finishes, the Vikings are small favorites and hope to continue their magical run they’ve been on all year. The Giants are looking to prove they belong in the upper echelon of the league, as they’ve fought to do since the preseason.

THE NEW YORK GIANTS ON OFFENSE:

The New York Giants are one of the easiest teams to analyze on the offensive side of the football. Their formula consists of trying to work their offense through their best player, Saquon Barkley, and relying on quarterback Daniel Jones to make timely throws and runs, particularly on third downs. It’s worked well enough, and actually worked really well against the Vikings in their first matchup. This is really more due to the lackluster defensive performances we’ve seen from Minnesota’s defense than it is the explosiveness of the New York offense. The Giants are limited in terms of weapons, but they do seem to get the most out of guys like Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins, who they’ll need again in this game. The Vikings hope to have Cameron Dantzler back at the cornerback spot opposite for Patrick Peterson which would give them a bit of a boost with their pass defense. The real question for the Vikings is how aggressively will they come after Daniel Jones and this offense? They don’t always blitz a ton, and seem to try to make teams earn it by dinking and dunking down the field. That plays right into the hands of the Giants who have no problem with slow and uninspiring drives for scores. If the Giants offensive line can do another good job against the Vikings front, they should find success moving the ball even if it is at a bit slower pace. In reality, that’s a big benefit to them as it keeps the Vikings off the field and helps take some crowd noise out of the building. In every game it’s important to look at execution in the red zone, and this game is no exception to that rule. The Giants are going to have some opportunities to get points on the board. What could be the difference in the outcome is if they can punch it in for seven when they get inside the 20 yard line, or if they’re settling for field goals.

THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS ON OFFENSE:

Kirk Cousins has another chance to change the narrative that he can’t play well in big games. In truth, he’s played well for most of this season, and made the plays necessary to get this team to a 13 win mark that is higher than what most projected to start the season. Cousins continues to play well at home, but let’s watch closely how well his offensive line can do giving him time to throw. The Vikings do like to run some deep routes, and with Justin Jefferson it’s hard to blame them, but those take time to develop and need to blocked well. Minnesota will be without one of the league’s better right tackles in Brian O’Neill, and his replacement Olisaemeka Udoh has the assignment of taking on one of the games hottest pass rushers in rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux. The young edge player turned the corner in the second half of the season and looked about as dominant as any defensive player in the league. When you’re lined up next to Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence on the line, that puts a lot of strain on the pass protection. It’s no secret Cousins is really good when he has time, but can struggle and throw some bad balls when he’s under constant pressure. The Vikings would be wise to try to really lean on the running game to help negate some of the Giants pressure, especially as New York hasn’t been great stopping the run. Although Dalvin Cook hasn’t looked quite as explosive as he has to start his career, he’s still capable of moving the chains, as is backup Alexander Mattison. How well the Vikings run the ball, could ironically be the difference in this game. When it comes to the passing game, we can expect to see a lot of Justin Jefferson as usual, but don’t be surprised if we see a player like T.J. Hockenson or K.J. Osborn step up to make some plays. Osborn has actually looked about as good as any receiver in the league over the last five weeks of the season when given his opportunities.

KEY STATS:
– The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road
– The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Vikings are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Minnesota Vikings 60%

If you had told us we’d be looking forward to watching a New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings game at the start of the season we would have laughed at you. As is the case with most of the Vikings games this year, this has the chance to be a really exciting game that comes down to the wire. The only time that wasn’t the case is when Minnesota was blown out, which is not something we expect from this New York Giants offense. Add that up and we should have a close and exciting game, and the three point spread seems like the most likely result in this game. No one ever wants to go into a bet thinking they’ll push, but when a team is getting the key number of three, it’s ok to approach a wager this way. This feels like result one is a Vikings win by a field goal. Result two would be flipped to a Giants win by a field goal. With that being said if you take the three points you’re potentially looking at a win or a push. That of course doesn’t include the very possible idea that the Vikings could win but just one or two points which they’ve also done this year. The Vikings may squeeze out another win in what’s been a fun season for them, but it’s tough to imagine them running away with a rout.

BetCrushers Lean: New York Giants +3
Minnesota Vikings 24, New York Giants 23

AFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

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Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-110)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)

The third and final divisional matchup of Wild Card weekend features the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens. These teams met in the final week of the season in a game the Ravens rested several starters for the playoff run. The Bengals enter the playoffs as hot as any team in the league, and will face a backup quarterback with Lamar Jackson almost certain to not play. The question is whether they will face the backup QB, or third stringer?

THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:

Say what you want about Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, but you cannot argue that the Baltimore offense flat out doesn’t move anywhere near as well when he’s out of the lineup. That looks to be the case as it appears Tyler Huntley will be the guy to try to advance the Ravens past this Wild Card round. Huntley has proven to be a capable backup quarterback, but that’s really all he is in this league. We’ll get to the Baltimore running game in a minute, but when you’re facing the Cincinnati Bengals, at some point you’re going to need to throw the ball. With Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay on injured reserve, it’s slim pickings at the wide receiver position. That leaves tight end Mark Andrews as the clear go-to weapon, who is sure to see a lot of attention from the Bengals secondary. Cincinnati lost their top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie for the season a while back, but credit their team for building some real depth in the secondary. The fact of the matter is the Ravens simply cannot fall far behind the Bengals and put themselves in a situation where they have to throw the football. That’s exactly what happened to them a week ago, and it resulted in multiple turnovers. So can Baltimore run the ball well enough to get points on the board? On the plus side, they’ll have a rested J.K. Dobbins who has put up some nice performances coming off of his major injury. Huntley also has enough athleticism to tuck and run when needed, which certainly doesn’t hurt. And of course if they can get past midfield they always have at least a shot at three points with Justin Tucker. Will that be enough against this Bengals defense? It all starts and ends with how well the offensive line performs for the Ravens against what has been a quietly good Bengals defense, particularly with D.J. Reader in the lineup. If you like watching physical football, check out the battle in the trenches on this side of the ball in particular.

THE CINCINNATI BENGALS ON OFFENSE:

The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a really good group, and sometimes they feel almost like a really good NBA team that can turn it on and off when they need to. In the playoffs, you have to imagine they’ll have it turned all the way up, which will be necessary against the Ravens defense. You could argue that outside of the 49ers, the Ravens have been maybe the top defense in the league since acquiring the recently paid Roquan Smith to anchor the front seven. It’s amazing to see how improved they are simply with having the majority of their unit healthy as they are now physical, fast and deep at all three layers. If there is one team in the league that understands how to matchup with the Bengals you could also say that it is in fact this Ravens bunch. They may have a quietly talked about advantage on the right side of the Cincinnati offensive line as this group will be without tackle La’el Collins and guard Alex Cappa, giving veterans like Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Houston some opportunities to make plays. For the Ravens to spring an upset, they’re going to need some negative plays such as sacks or turnovers to help out their somewhat anemic offense. The Bengals have been more balanced in the second half of the season, but don’t expect a ton of rushing yards from Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine in this one. They’re going to have to move the ball through the air with their trio of wide receivers. If any team has cornerbacks that can at least slow down the Bengals weapons it’s the Ravens who should have their top players in the secondary available. Don’t be shocked if Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst gets a lot of targets here with attention being paid to the wide receivers.

KEY STATS:
– The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Bengals are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games at home
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Ravens

PUBLIC MONEY: – CINCINNATI BENGALS 78%

For two teams that fought toe-to-toe for the right to claim the AFC North crown, it seems kind of crazy to see a 10 point spread in a playoff match. Of course that can happen when one team will be playing without their difference-making quarterback. Imagine if the roles were reversed and we had Lamar Jackson in and Joe Burrow out and we were playing in Baltimore. The Bengals are playing with a chip on their shoulder and they want another shot at Buffalo as they believed they were going to win their Monday night game two weeks ago. The Ravens will be too physical for them to overlook or take lightly, but ultimately, the offense of Cincinnati will be able to give more than the offense for Baltimore. The public has been hammering the Bengals, and it’s certainly not impossible this game could get ugly. With the spread ballooning so high however, and with one of the better defenses in the league, we’re going to go with the Ravens in what could end up finishing with a closer score than the public seems to believe.

BetCrushers Lean: Baltimore Ravens +10
Cincinnati Bengals 22, Baltimore Ravens 16

NFC WILD CARD GAME THREE

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs.

Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)

The NFL season opened things up with a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’ll play the 2nd Monday Night Football Wild Card game to finish up the playoff weekend. The Buccaneers came to life to wrap up the 2022 season, while the Cowboys limped in with a bad loss to the Washington Commanders. Dallas wants to avoid another heartbreaking postseason, while Tom Brady hopes to repeat his on again and off again Super Bowl winning season pattern.

THE DALLAS COWBOYS ON OFFENSE:

If you can figure out the Dallas Cowboys offense, you are definitely a lot smarter than we are. At times this group looks unstoppable moving up and down the field, and at other times they seem to struggle to execute and achieve first downs. We can’t say for sure which group we’re going to get on Monday night, but we do know they want to run the football. The difference in their offense when they’re able to establish the run is night and day, and you can plan on seeing a lot of early handoffs to Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Assuming Vita Vea is in the lineup, it won’t be easy to run on this Buccaneers front. While this group isn’t nearly as stout as it was for a stretch where it led the league in run defense, it’s still very capable of slowing down a running game. The more interesting piece is going to be whether or not they can get pressure on Dak Prescott and cover the receivers and tight ends? Without Shaq Barrett in the lineup, the Bucs have had stretches where they don’t get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and often need to blitz. How Dak Prescott handles that is one of the keys to this game as it’s been well documented he’s struggled to take care of the football. He’s also struggled more on the road than in the comfort of AT&T Stadium, which is a concern playing on the slower grass in Tampa. We all know about the most steady receiver for Dallas, wideout CeeDee Lamb who will need to be a big player in a big game. Going beyond that, the team needs someone to step up, whether that’s Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz or anyone else. This could also be a situation where we see a lot of designed passes for Tony Pollard as a receiver out of the backfield.

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

We seemed to wait for 16 weeks for the Tampa Bay offense to find some rhythm and look as though they could move the football, and it finally happened in week 17. In watching the tape from that game, it was really quite simple, Tom Brady had clean pockets and time to throw. As a result we saw on target throws to Mike Evans down the field, not once or twice, but three times for scores. The good news for Tampa is their offensive line is as healthy as it’s been in a while, however the bad news is they’re playing one of the better pass rushes in the league. Before we look at that, let’s talk about the Buccaneers running game, which was pretty much non-existent all season. In a matchup against Dallas, they absolutely have to find a way to get Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White some blocking upfront. The Cowboys have given up some chunks on the ground, and if Tampa Bay can run the ball, their offense should do well. Circling back to the passing game, it’s really a pretty simple equation. If Tom Brady has a clean pocket, his receivers can beat the defensive backs of the Cowboys, even though they’ve had nice seasons. Truth be told, they’ve had good seasons because of the fierce pass rush of the front seven. If Dallas is able to harass Brady on passing downs, we’ll see a lot of punts, sacks and that frustrated Brady look we saw much of the year. It’s the most cliché breakdown of all time, but whoever wins the battle of the big guys in the trenches on this side has a huge advantage in this game.

KEY STATS:
– The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Buccaneers are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 home games
– The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Buccaneers

PUBLIC MONEY: – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 54%

As we stated above, it’s really tough to try to handicap the Dallas Cowboys as they’re one of the hottest and coldest teams it seems on any given week. With the spread dropping to Dallas -2.5 it seems like from a pure numbers standpoint you’d want to lay the points with with the Cowboys who were clearly a better team through the course of the full season. Momentum is a funny thing however, and even if it’s just from a game or so, the Bucs seem to have more heading into the playoffs than do the Cowboys. There are also a couple of those other psychological things to think about as well. The Cowboys seem to play a little tight as the pressure just seems to boil over for them from the media and their fanbase. The other point here is they’re playing the greatest quarterback in postseason history on the other side. Psychology aside, it’s really fair to also examine how poorly Dallas has played on the road, and in particular on grass as opposed to turf. That could help Tampa as Dallas clearly has some of the speedier players on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. If you’re betting this one, you can certainly explore the moneyline for Tampa as well as the 2.5 points probably isn’t worth the plus money you can get with an outright win.

BetCrushers Lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Dallas Cowboys 24

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You’ve had a chance to check out our leans and predictions for all six of the Super Wild Card weekend matchups. Below are our official wagers.