The first set of cuts in the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs came after one hell of a Bristol Night Race. JGR’s domination on that misty night led to a Denny Hamlin victory while his cohorts Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell moved on in the postseason gauntlet. Toyota’s five playoff representatives lead the way over Chevy with four and Ford with three. How will this balance of power look after the Round of 12 throws Texas, Talladega, and the Roval in their faces?
Round of 16 Prediction Recap
Mishaps early and often in the Southern 500 doomed the prospects of veterans Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, two of my top 5 drivers at Darlington. It also squashed the upward movement of Joey Logano as expected. Chris Buescher, however, confirmed that momentum is certainly a thing – especially heading into the playoffs. Then Kansas damn near put a nail in the coffin of Martin Truex Jr.’s Championship run, as it did for Bubba Wallace. Right rear tires crippled their chances while Tyler Reddick came away with a pass to the Round of 12.
Despite the bottom pair of Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. hanging tough at the Bristol Night Race, the first two races were just too much. The concentrated playoff field grows stronger with each elimination. My shortlist of Byron, Truex, Hamlin, Larson, and Bell survived the Round of 16 without much surprise. Those were no-brainers for the most part. But my expectation for Cup Series Champions Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano to advance vanished into the Smoky Mountain rain. Their failure to menace from the get-go was too much to overcome.
And Then There Were 12
If anyone is breathing a huge sigh of relief after Bristol, it has to be Regular Season Champion Martin Truex Jr. He hacked his way out of sketchy territory back into the second position with the points reset. And as we saw in the previous round, any lead can evaporate after one or two miscues. Although miscues at the top are exactly what the bubble teams are looking for. But that’s not necessarily the silver bullet. Drivers on the outside looking in not only have to avoid disastrous races in the Round of 12, they have to be assertive and score well to keep from getting buried.
Everything’s Bigger at Texas Motor Speedway
The D-shaped oval of Texas Motor Speedway falls into a crowded intermediate track grouping with no shortage of comps. Our data guru Ryan at ifantasyrace.com narrows things down to Charlotte, Kansas, and Las Vegas. The larger pool expands to Michigan, Auto Club, and Homestead. Unlike unique tracks like Bristol and Darlington in the previous round, there is plenty to compare to with Texas.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Texas
- Denny Hamlin – A Bristol Night Race win on the heels of a runner-up performance at Kansas did not hurt his playoff position. On face value, Denny up top looks like a sketchy start to this list. Hamlin’s best finish at TMS since winning in 2019 is 9th. Speed numbers don’t say much more than that, however, the #11 team has been the fastest on Texas’ core comp tracks this season and rates highest over the broader intermediate category.
- Tyler Reddick – The defending Texas race winner has a strong record on this mile-and-a-half and is packing plenty of speed on the intermediates in 2023. So the matter of jumping from the RCR Chevy to the 23XI Toyota appears to be a non-issue. Top 10 finishes and ratings in three of his four Cup contests here is a boon.
- William Byron – Top-tier speed and competitive finishes over the last couple Texas races earn Willy B the #3 spot. Maybe he deserves getting knocked down a half notch or so as a relative no-show at Kansas and Michigan. But a solid Round of 16 otherwise maintains his key contender status.
- Kyle Larson – Much like Hamlin and Reddick, momentum is on the side of the 2021 Cup Series Champion. His 2021 Texas playoff win – the eighth that season – kicked off four top 10 ratings in the last five here. Plus the #5 team has been extremely consistent since their Coca-Cola 600 miscue.
- Martin Truex Jr. – MTJ’s momentum heading into the playoffs was squashed by misfortune in the first round. Now he’s back up there with a new lease on his Championship run. Truex’ spot on this list is borderline hot take-ish considering the strength of Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Blaney in the Lone Star State. Look for the #19 to regain their pre-postseason form and score well here.
Potential Movers at Texas
- Ryan Blaney🔺- If this crew wants to advance to the Round of 8, scoring well at Texas is a must. Five straight Top 10 finishes here mixes like oil and water with his performance on the comps this season. So where’s the good news? Look no further than the #12 team showing decent speed at Kansas and Michigan.
- Chris Buescher🔻- Yet again, I’m completely fine with being wrong on Buescher. His current form is arguably still the best in the field despite a rough Kansas outing. The downside is how Texas and the larger group of comp tracks outside of Michigan have not been kind to RFK Racing’s #17.
- Tyler Reddick 🔺 – Texas offers the #45 squad a prime opportunity to jump above 8th in the playoff standings into the 4th-6th range. He’s one of the strongest drivers on this track.
Talladega: A Big Track For the Big Boys
Talladega is a joint that will throw a monkey wrench into Round of 12 projections. Not only is it tough to nail down for that particular race, the results weigh heavily on who’s doing what at the Roval. ‘Dega is big, bad, and nationwide as the bearded guitar slingers from Texas would say. Looking for a free pass to advance here? Good luck, because just about anyone in the field can take that away from a Championship hopeful.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Talladega
- Ryan Blaney – Back-to-back runner-up finishes and seven top 10 ratings in the last eight Talladega races says enough. Enough to lift the #12 team to the top anyways. Aside from a rough break in the regular-season finale at Daytona, Blaney has made his mark as a drafting track aficionado.
- Denny Hamlin – The Daytona summer race was unkind to DH as well, otherwise the veteran has raced well on the drafting tracks. Plus they’ve nailed this Talladega playoff race four years in a row with a win and no finishes below P7.
- William Byron – Willy B knows how to survive here on the high banks though is not immune to unfortunate superspeedway finishes. He’s landed outside the Top 15 just twice in his last eight Talladega races.
- Kyle Busch – Winning the April race and finishing P3 last spring is a shot in Kyle’s arm. But it’s the bigger picture performance on the drafting tracks that put him on this list. Four straight Top 10 finishes across ‘Dega, Daytona, and Atlanta speak to his hot hand. Or does that beg for negative regression? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
- Brad Keselowski – Kes has a true boom-or-bust profile at Talladega in recent years. Pre-Next Gen car, Brad consistently earned top ratings with a victory and runner-up in 2021. A P5 in the spring race reflects the #6 being there when it counted. Top 10 ratings and finishes in four of this season’s five drafting contests point toward another good one.
Potential Movers at Talladega
Stay out of trouble and you have a prime opportunity to move ahead of the less fortunate teams. Caught up in a mess? Dropping like a rock in the standings could be your fate. Projecting movers at Talladega with any certainty is a fruitless effort given the wild card nature of this race. So we’ll avoid the subject and move on to the Roval.
Twisting Toward Elimination at the Roval
Charlotte’s hybrid oval + road course plants its flag as an elimination race for the sixth straight season. Before the 2020 campaign, it served as the first cutoff race. Now the Roval stands in the way of drivers looking to make the cut to the Round of 8. The broader comp category includes both the pure road courses like Sonoma and Watkins Glen along with hybrids like the Roval and Indy. But as Ryan from ifantasyrace.com notes, “focus on studying overall track history first and then overall recent road course racing prowess”. Speed on Charlotte’s main track can be just as important as it is through the twists and turns.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at the Roval
- Tyler Reddick – With Sonoma and the Chicago Street Course as the sole blemishes on his 2023 road course resume, Reddick is positioned well to claim victory at the Roval. Top 3 ratings in the last two Roval races mesh well with his pedigree on these non-ovals. The #45 team has proven road course speed – making execution the key in this elimination race.
- Christopher Bell – C-Bell has been a bit more hit-or-miss in road course finishes this season. Much like Reddick, however, the speed numbers have been there even when execution has not. 6th or better ratings in the last four contests on this track type combined with his 2022 Roval win make him a prime contender.
- Chris Buescher – Rock solid is one way to characterize the #17 team on road courses in the Next Gen car. A P11 at Indy and P21 last year at COTA are Buescher’s only non-Top 10 finishes in ten contests since 2022. Their championship-quality form indicates that Chris should certainly not be overlooked in this race.
- Kyle Larson – Despite a couple road course whiffs this season and a big mistake here in 2022, an ultra-focused Larson is always a threat to snag the dub. He’s clocked great speed at the Roval from the get-go despite having a single Top 10 on his resume – the 2021 win, mind you.
- William Byron – The results have not followed suit with the #24’s speed at the Roval. For four years in a row, Willy B has delivered 7th or better ratings here despite walking away with just a pair of Top 10 finishes. This crew went through a rough patch this season at Sonoma, Chicago, and Indy but rebounded with the hardware at Watkins Glen.
Potential Movers at the Roval
- Christopher Bell🔺- This looks to be Bell’s best opportunity to score well in the Round of 12. He could be close to the cut line before the race and figures to come out safely if this #20 executes a clean race. It seems like a big IF at this point but the speed and talent are there.
- Ryan Blaney🔻- Considering that Blaney won the inaugural Roval race in 2018 and rattled off three more Top 10 finishes after that, tagging him as a downward mover seems sketchy. However, the #12 team has been off their game at the road courses this season. You can argue that they improved at Indy and The Glen near the end of the regular season though.
- Tyler Reddick 🔺- If Talladega treats the #45 team poorly, they always have the Roval to make up for lost time. Otherwise, Reddick should hold serve and advance with a good run here.
On Track For the Round of 8
It’s no surprise that the top four teams in the standings are tagged as being the most likely to advance. Double-digit “cushions” over the cut line and being some of the strongest drivers pair well.
- William Byron – Top 5 rankings at all three tracks combined with a 25-point margin above the current cut line = Round of 8.
- Martin Truex Jr. – Barring disaster like in the last round, his points cushion plus a favorable Texas race in front of him should get it done for MTJ.
- Denny Hamlin – Denny’s 21-point cushion is a strong position for a top 10 driver across the board this round. Is DH officially white hot after his Night Race win and Kansas runner-up?
- Kyle Larson – The 2021 Cup Series Champion eats well in the postseason and there’s little evidence pointing toward anything different. Larson showed incredible focus in the Round of 16, including a clean recovery from penalty at Bristol. Incident-free work at Texas and the Roval should keep the #5 team in the hunt.
Poised For Improvement
- Tyler Reddick – Talladega aside, the Round of 12 sets up quite well for Reddick much like Kyle Larson. And being one of the main candidates for a win at Texas and the Roval does not hurt. Perhaps the only question remaining is whether the #45 can tack on more playoff points for the next round.
- Christopher Bell – For C-Bell, it’s all about holding serve in the first two races then pouncing at the Roval. Maybe I’m too pessimistic about what he will do at Texas but the elimination race presents a huge opportunity to defend last season’s win and make the Round of 8.
Bubble Watch Candidates
- Chris Buescher – If the Texas native maintains his mojo in the first race of this round, the #17 team will be positioned well when the boys hit the Roval. Otherwise, his sights on the Round of 8 could be fuzzy.
- Kyle Busch – Starting on the right side of the line means that running without incident should keep KFB’s Championship pursuit alive. His Texas and Roval profiles leave something to be desired, so any missteps along the way might threaten Ms. JJ’s futures ticket.
- Brad Keselowski – Three straight Top 10 finishes to start the playoffs points towards the RFK #6 sneaking above the cut line. However, past performance at Texas and the Roval almost calls for a win or Top 5 at Talladega to stay alive.
- Ryan Blaney – Talladega could be the Hail Mary that the #12 team needs to advance, but that’s not the not best strategy to hang their hopes on. Can they dig deep for a big race at the Roval to stay alive? Signs point to them being competitive there but the competition is stiff if they need to make up too much ground.
In Need of a Miracle
Talladega has the potential to grant any – or none – of the playoff teams a free pass to the Round of 8. Those hopes and dreams aside, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace find themselves in uncomfortable positions with this trio of tracks. It’s a lot like the shark-infested waters scenario that Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. were in last round, as Ross and Bubba rank in the mid-teens across the board.
- Ross Chastain
- Bubba Wallace
