Previous Week Plays – 4-2
Season Record – 7-3
Week 2 Recap:
A productive slate for week two as we found our way to a 4-2 record for the week with our posted plays. We split our plays in the Chiefs and Jaguars contest, as we correctly had the Chiefs covering ATS, however weren’t really close on the over bet in that one. Going against the grain, we took the team total overs with the Bills and Lions, each of which was successful. Our teaser bet was also pretty easily cashed as the 49ers and Cowboys both were pretty dominant. Our loss against the spread was taking a shot on the Houston Texans who were beaten by the Colts. When we placed that bet, we weren’t expecting so many injuries for the team, but that happens when you bet early at times. Overall, we’ll always take a 4-2 weekend.
Week 3 Picks:
Initially we had six plays circled we wanted to roll with, but after really diving in, we eliminated a couple of wagers before placing them. We’re rolling with a few road teams this week, one of which is part of a week three teaser. Our plays are a little more conventional this weekend as we are backing a couple of underdogs, and we’re trying to double up in a game again. It sounds a little absurd, yet there are some really important matchups for this early in the season. Four official plays won’t leave a big margin for error, so let’s hope we selected the correct games.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
vs. 
New England Patriots (0-2) vs. New York Jets (1-1)
Sunday September 24th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
New England Patriots -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 36.5 (-110)
Early season woes have plagued the Patriots and the Jets as they’ll square off in an important divisional game in the early window Sunday. The Patriots have played tough, yet are still searching for their first win of the season, starting 0-2 for the first time since 2001. Meanwhile, the world watched the Jets postseason odds shrink dramatically after losing Aaron Rodgers in their season opener.
The National Football League has always been called the “Not For Long” league, and in the case of Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, we’re hearing all about it. The media is asking questions about whether or Belichick is really an elite coach as he’s now working with Mac Jones at the quarterback position, and an offense that is struggling… Kind of. Next on tap is a visit to face the New York Jets defense. The reason we mentioned the offense is “kind of ” struggling is because Mac Jones and the passing offense have actually been fairly effective. Unexpectedly, it’s been the running game that has actually stalled out for New England. The Jets are a pretty stout unit in their front seven, but don’t be surprised if New England really tries to force the issue with the running game, particularly with Rhamondre Stevenson. They don’t necessarily need a dominant performance on the ground, but they at least need to stay balanced. Having Bill O’ Brien as offensive coordinator seems to have helped Mac Jones look more comfortable with the play-calling and in the pocket. Despite the big name cornerbacks for the Jets, they’ve actually gotten beaten the first couple week by good receivers. The question here is whether or not Kendrick Bourne and the Pats wideouts are good enough to make plays in that secondary?
For the time being it’s still Zach Wilson’s team to guide, and he’s going to need to do better than he did against the Cowboys in his first start. In fairness they’re pass rush has been insanely good, however it’s only mildly easier going against the rushers of the Patriots. Wilson hasn’t shown much in his young career as a whole, and it’s been particularly bad against Bill Belichick and the Pats defense. The Jets will most likely try to establish Breece Hall, who only received four carries last week and Dalvin Cook in the run game, where the Patriots aren’t particular strong. However, we know Belichick wants to take away what the Jets biggest weapon is, and in this case that would be the running game. New England is going to force Zach Wilson to beat them through the air, which is not going to be easy to do. Matthew Judon could be in line for a big day as he’ll get left tackle Duane Brown a lot, a player that has really not looked great in his first two games. With wide receiver Garrett Wilson likely to also draw a lot of attention in the secondary, New York needs to find another weapon to throw the ball to consistently.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Jets
– The Patriots are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games vs. the Jets
– The Patriots are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 road games vs. the Jets
– The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
The weather could play a factor in a game that will likely already be a bit of a defensive struggle. This definitely has a feeling of the first team getting to 20 points being the winner, that is if a team can get to 20 points. We won’t completely grade the Jets without Aaron Rodgers based on what we saw against the Cowboys. However, there is reason to believe this team just simply isn’t going to be good enough to overcome mistakes by quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson may adapt as the season goes on, but he’s highly likely to make some of those mistakes against this Patriots defense. New England is desperate for a win, and while this seems like it’ll be a low-scoring field goal game, they should find a way to win this game.
BetCrushers Take: New England Patriots -2.5
Patriots 22, Jets 17
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (1-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Sunday September 24th
1:00pm
Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 39 (-110)
A pair of 1-1 teams will face off in Cleveland as the Browns look to rebound from a tough loss to the Steelers, while the Titans hope to build on their win against the Chargers. If you enjoy throwback physical football, this will be a game you’ll probably end up enjoying. In a game that might not feature a lot of big plays, it could be the team that makes the most who ends up with the win.
To say that quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t looked great to begin the season for the Titans would probably be an understatement. Really though, it’s a lot more about their inability to block up front than it is a full indictment on the veteran quarterback. For the Titans to compete in this game, their offensive line absolutely has to step up against what has proven to be a dominating Browns defensive unit early on. Left tackle Andre Dillard is going to have his hands full all game with Myles Garrett. Tennessee offensive coordinator Tim Kelly needs to find ways to get the ball out of Tannehill’s hand quickly, which means a lot of DeAndre Hopkins. Of course the offense in Tennessee is going to lean on running back Derrick Henry, who has run hard despite not having a lot of open space. The Browns have been stingy against the run, shutting down Najee Harris and Joe Mixon in their first two games and allowing only 3.2 yards per carry. Henry will have the best shot at doing some damage on the ground, but it’ll probably be a few yards at a time.
If Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was feeling the pressure of expectations after the first couple of games, he’ll really be feeling the heat moving forward. The loss of Nick Chubb alters the entire identity of the Browns offense, even with scooping Kareem Hunt back up onto the roster. Facing the Titans, the offensive success really needs to start and end with Watson and the passing game. The Titans have been downright nasty at stopping opposing runners, so even with a top three offensive line, the Browns won’t likely be able to do a lot running. The flip side for Cleveland would be Watson should have plenty of opportunities to make plays throwing the ball. Tennessee has not done all that much to improve upon what was one of the worst passing defenses from a season ago. Watson needs to make the open throws that are sure to be there against the secondary of the Titans.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Browns are 2-6 straight up in their last 8 games vs. the Titans
We’re going to learn a lot about Deshaun Watson and this Browns offense in the absence of Nick Chubb. The Titans defense should keep them competitive, as long as their offense doesn’t turn the football over. You have to imagine Titan fans are cringing at the thought of the suddenly dominant Browns defense attacking their offensive line and Ryan Tannehill. The Titans may punt the ball a lot in this game, but they can still win as long as they don’t make things easy on the Browns. Really what things come down to for us is a Mike Vrabel team playing as an underdog of over a field goal, which basically seems like a must bet. We’re expecting this to be one of those bruising games for both teams where the team who makes less mistakes comes away with the win.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans +3.5
Browns 23, Titans 20
Teaser Bet
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Houston Texans (0-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Sunday September 24th
1:00pm
Everbank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-1)
Sunday September 24th
8:20pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-105)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Jaguars -1.5 and Steelers +9
Two offenses that were expected to elevate in the 2023 season are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Things have not been great for either as they’ve largely sputtered out of the gate both running and throwing the ball. Each team has an opportunity to get on track as they’ll face two of the weaker defenses in the league on Sunday. The Jags enter as favorites hosting the Texans, and the Steelers will face the longtime out-of-division rival Raiders, who are now in another different city.
The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Texans in an AFC south battle that means a lot for each team, for differing reasons. The Jaguars want to get some things going and establish an early hold on the division lead. The Texans are looking to build up the confidence of quarterback C.J. Stroud and the entire team. The Texans offense showed some signs of life against the Colts as Stroud was able to sling the ball around with some good success. Stroud has been fairly mobile, and for a Jags pass rush that is generated primarily from the edges with Josh Allen and Travon Walker, he’ll need to use his feet a bit. The Texans really need to establish their running game with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, which will be a challenge against a pretty tough run defense. They also need to take care of the football, as the Jaguars have feasted on turnovers in home matchups dating back to last season. For the Jags on offense, it’s all about finding rhythm as they have been plagued by a lot of three and outs to start the season. Jacksonville should be able to get running back Travis Etienne, Jr. going, and the offensive gameplan really should be to keep things simple. In the passing game, Lawrence needs to try to spread the ball around and get multiple weapons involved.
The second leg of the teaser bet could be a lot different than when these teams would battle in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Two offenses that were essentially stalled a week ago each have a shot at putting some points on the scoreboard. The Steelers will be without Diontae Johnson again and need to find some other weapons for Kenny Pickett to throw the football to. George Pickens provided a splash as he often does against the Browns, but it seems like it’s difficult for him to consistently get the ball in his hands. The Raiders secondary is one of the worst in the league, so whether it’s Pickens, Allen Robinson, Pat Freiermuth or someone else, they simply need to make some plays in the passing game. For Pittsburgh, right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor will have the task of matching up with the Raiders Maxx Crosby, who is the only real game-wrecker Las Vegas has on that side of the ball. It’s only been two weeks, but Raiders rookie Tyree Wilson has been a complete non-factor in his first two appearances in the league. Pittsburgh simply needs to be able to move the ball on this defense. The Raiders offense is built on the ability to run the football with Josh Jacobs. It was tough sledding for Jacobs after missing the preseason, but he has a chance to improve against a Steelers defense that is back to being pushed around a bit in the run game. The loss of Cameron Heyward doesn’t help that, but it’s fair to point out Pittsburgh opened up trying to stop Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb, and gave up a long TD run in week two. If they can slow Jacobs down and put the game in the hands of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, they’ll improve their odds of winning. The Raiders are hopeful to get Jakobi Meyers back from concussion protocol to give them a strong threat opposite of Davante Adams. For the Steelers, they really need a healthy Minkah Fitzpatrick in this game to support the corners in their matchup with the Raiders wideouts.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 2-12 straight up in their last 14 games
– The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Jaguars
– The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Raiders are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games
Even though the Houston Texans have owned the Jaguars over the past handful of seasons, it’s reasonable to assume the tide will turn for this matchup in 2023. I mean after all, pretty much every team owned the Jaguars the past few years. Houston might be feisty and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them hang around, but the Jaguars simply have to get the offense going in this game, don’t they? Well, we’re going with yes. In fact, we think so much so, we’re taking the over in this contest as well. In the other game, it’s pretty simple as far as a teaser leg goes. It’s really hard to imagine the Raiders beating anyone by double-digits, especially a Mike Tomlin coached team. Allegiant Stadium will probably be more black and yellow than black and silver, so there’s really not much homefield advantage for the Raiders here. Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense should get things moving in the right direction behind Najee Harris and a running game.
