BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 6-7
JJ – 6-7
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 70-63-1
JJ – 66-67-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
Not much to get hyped up about for the BetCrushers in week nine as we finished 6-7 with our leans against the spread. We had way too many square bets and the casinos made sure to cash in on that against us in addition to the general public. We started the weekend out strong as we each took the points with the Cardinals, but it was mostly downhill from that point on. We both choked on the Sunday Night and Monday Night games as we had the favorites backwards in those contests. It may sound a little crazy but despite the rough weekend it’s really starting to feel like these teams can be understood and broken down a lot more consistently than in the first half of the season where there was a little bit of a feeling out process. We’re back to breaking down the games fully this week in addition to our picks so take a look and best of luck if you decide to follow us on any of these leans.
vs. 
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-5) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-4)
Thursday – November 7th – 8:20pm
Spread: Chargers -1
Over/Under: 48.5
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 56%
The Breakdown:
Thursday Night Football offers us a rivalry game of teams that are fighting to stay alive in the wild card mix as the “Black Hole” will be rocking and loud. The Chargers and Raiders are both coming off of much needed wins, one in thrilling fashion and the other a bit of surprising domination.
Philip Rivers has owned the Raiders in the past couple of seasons playing some of his best football and winning the previous four games. He’ll look to stay hot as it appears LA has finally figured out how to work their talented duo of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to where they can both be effective. The Raiders have been decent stopping the run, however the types of running that the Chargers do could pose a bit of a problem for Oakland. Both Gordon and Ekeler should find at least some success if Los Angeles is patient and sticks with the run throughout the game. Rivers has his weapons mostly healthy and has some areas to exploit in the Raiders defense. Hunter Henry will likely see a lot of targets in this game as Oakland has really struggled covering opposing tight ends all season. If the Raiders want to stop Rivers recent dominance against them it’s going to take big games from their young pass rushers, specifically Clelin Ferrell off of the edge. If Rivers has time to scan the field he will pick the Raiders secondary apart so the biggest key in this game is whether or not Oakland can muster enough of a pass rush to take Rivers off of his spot.
It’s been relatively quiet, but if you’ve been paying attention you’ll notice that Derek Carr is putting together a really solid 2019 season and seems to have full command of the offense. He’s aided by Josh Jacobs who leads all rookie running backs in rushing and should continue his impressive play against a Chargers defense that has been pretty soft against the run. It seems like no one on LA’s defense outside of their linebacking corp has any desire to come up and tackle anyone. That bodes well for Jacobs who is both fast and powerful when he’s toting the rock. In the passing game Carr has his compliment of weapons as well and will need to spread it around to stay on the field and complete third downs. Darren Waller continues to shine although he’s been slowed down a bit the last couple of weeks, but the return of a healthy Tyrell Williams gives Carr a legitimate threat on the outside. With all of that information, it’s worth noting that the reason Carr and the Raiders have had success offensively is the really strong play of their offensive line. This group is a top five unit in the league and center Rodney Hudson and volatile veteran Richie Incognito are playing at a Pro Bowl level.
We lean Raiders in this one but are probably not wagering on this game as it’s a really close call, hence the small point spread. The Black Hole is going to be ready to party so we may look to tease Oakland to get past the key number of seven and possibly take the over or under as either seems feasible to hit.
Yanni’s Pick – Raiders +1 (Raiders 24, Chargers 23)
JJ’s Pick – Raiders +1 (Raiders 21, Chargers 17)
vs. 
BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-2) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-8)
Sunday – November 10th – 1:00pm
Spread: Ravens -10.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 69%
The Breakdown:
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off perhaps the most impressive win of the season as they thoroughly outmatched the previously undefeated New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. They’ll be on the opposite end of the spectrum as they turn their attention to the lowly and winless Cincinnati Bengals who will be staring rookie quarterback Ryan Finley under center. We can save everyone some time with this breakdown, the Ravens are a much better football team basically everywhere on the field, including wide receiver as A.J. Green suffered a setback in return from his injury and won’t be able to make his debut on Sunday. The Bengals defense has played hard for the most part, they’re just generally out-manned particularly at the linebacker position which is not good against Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. The Ravens should be able to run the ball effectively and should build up an early lead. If they’re able to do so, look for a lot of handing the ball off in the second half as they’ll be content to get a W and get back home without any injuries or mishaps.
The Bengal faithful have been screaming for Andy Dalton’s head for weeks and they’ll finally get their wish as they look to see what Finley can do for them. As mentioned he’ll have to do it with Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate being matched up against Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith in the secondary which is not exactly easing him into game action. Careful what you wish for Bengals fans, Ryan Finley could be in for a long day and or season, that is if he can finish the game. As the league knows, the Bengals offensive line is horrible and even though the Ravens haven’t been great with their front seven, they have enough speed and power to cause some havoc for the young rookie. For the Bengals to have any chance in this game they’ll need to get running back Joe Mixon going, something they haven’t been able to do much due mostly to the previously referenced offensive line.
The Ravens are in a classic “let down” game coming off their emotional home win and having to travel to Cincinnati. How can they possibly get hyped up to play a team that hasn’t won a game starting a rookie quarterback? As crazy as it sounds the Bengals could very well cover this game as 10+ points is generous in the world of the NFL.
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals +10.5 (Ravens 27, Bengals 18)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals +10.5 (Ravens 24, Bengals 20)
vs. 
BUFFALO BILLS (6-2) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-6)
Sunday – November 10th – 1:00pm
Spread: Browns -2.5
Over/Under: 40
Public Money Percentage: Buffalo 60%
The Breakdown:
If you told people at the beginning of the season that the Bills and Browns were playing in week ten and one team would be 6-2 and the other would be 2-6 they’d probably guess the reverse of where each sits today. Many pundits are skeptical of the Bills based upon the soft schedule they’ve played, while critics are quick to pile on the Browns for their unimpressive performances including last weeks loss to first time starter Brandon Allen and the Denver Broncos.
The Buffalo Bills find themselves with six wins despite having the 23rd overall ranked offense in the NFL in 2019. They’ll look to get things going against a Browns defense that has actually played better in recent weeks as they’ve gotten healthier despite not finding their way into the win column. The Bills turned to rookie Devin Singletary as lead back ahead of Frank Gore last week and he didn’t disappoint showing some of the elusiveness and quickness that made him the team’s third round pick. Both Singletary and Gore should find some space running between the tackles against what has been a soft run defense in Cleveland. The interior of the Bills offensive line should be more physical and if they can get out to an early lead they’ll have a big edge in the second half of the game. The concern on the offensive line for the Bills has to be with their tackles as they’ll have to hold up against Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon and the Browns pass rushers. Josh Allen has played fairly well as he continues to grow in his second season, however he has been prone to fumbles as his pocket awareness and ball security are still lacking. If Allen can take care of the ball the Bills have a good chance to win this game, but if the offense turns it over, the Browns will come away with the win.
Cleveland made it publicly known that they plan to force the ball into the hands of Odell Beckham, Jr. beginning this week which could end up being a really good or a really bad thing. We know that Beckham is a game changer when he can get his hands on the ball so Baker Mayfield will be doing everything he can to make that happen Sunday. The challenge the Browns have with that plan this week is OBJ will likely be matched up with Tre’davious White who Pro Football Focus has graded as the second best cornerback in the league through the halfway point of the season. Cleveland will not to find creative ways to get the ball to Beckham and not completely ignore the other receivers who may have easier matchups. If head coach Freddie Kitchens really wants to do his embattled quarterback a favor and try to come away with a desperation win, his best bet will be to hand the ball off to Nick Chubb early and often. While the Bills defense has played well for the season, the last three weeks they have been absolutely gashed in zone running games allowing nearly 200 yards per game. Chubb has been as good as any RB not named Christian McCaffrey this year and it will be difficult for the Bills to contain him even if they commit extra guys in the box. If they end up having to bring their safeties up it could open the door up for Baker Mayfield to finally hit some of the big plays that he was hitting in 2018.
KEY STATS – The Browns over total is 6-3 in their last 9 home games
We’ll find out just what kind of a mentally tough team the Cleveland Browns are this weekend as they desperately need to play a clean and sound game. At first glance you’d think this would be a grinding type game in the November cold of Cleveland with two young quarterbacks who aren’t playing explosive football. Look a little closer and you’ll see some things including redzone production that should contribute to a few more points than expected. If Cleveland is ever going to make a move this season it has to be in this game and their maligned offense should do enough to get some points on the board. With a total of just 40 points, there doesn’t need to be an offensive explosion, just these teams doing enough to get the ball in the end zone a few times.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns -2.5 (Browns 23, Bills 20)
JJ’s Pick – Browns -2.5 (Browns 24, Bills 20)
vs. 
DETROIT LIONS (3-4-1) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-5)
Sunday – November 10th – 1:00pm
Spread: Bears -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Public Money Percentage: Detroit 55%
The Breakdown:
The Detroit Lions lost a heartbreaker last week as they ran out of time against a fiesty Oakland squad despite another good performance from their offense. They’ll need another big game from Matthew Stafford in the Chicago cold against a Bears defense that has looked like a shell of itself from a year ago, mostly due to their inept offense. While the Lions have been impressive chucking the ball around the field to their skill position weapons, they’re going to need to find a running game if they want to come out with a road victory against Chicago. The Bears have been vulnerable against the run more so than the pass so simply throwing the ball down the field isn’t going to be a winning formula for beating them. Can the Lions get enough production out of third and fourth string guys to put Stafford and the offense in manageable situations against the chains? One thing that should help is the fact that the Lions offensive line has played much better than expected this season. They’ll need to take away Khalil Mack and his ability to single-handedly wreck a game.
There are a bunch of adjectives that could be used to describe the Chicago Bears offense in 2019 and none of them would be pleasant or complimentary. Their ineptness reached new heights a week ago against Philadelphia as they weren’t able to do anything running or passing for most of the game. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was so frustrated and beleaguered that he asked the TVs in the Bears facilities to be shut off so they wouldn’t have to hear the criticism of just how poorly they’ve played. Fortunately for Trubisky and team a date against the Lions defense at home could be exactly what they need to build some confidence and momentum. The Lions have been unable to stop anyone and have struggled in both defending the run and the pass. As we saw a couple of weeks ago, the Bears can get David Montgomery going against inferior competition, which the Lions run defense clearly is. With Montgomery running, it should open things up for Trubisky to make some plays in the passing game, something he has been mostly unable to do up to this point in the season. One thing is for certain for the Bears, if they can’t get any offense going in this matchup, they might as well start looking ahead to the future.
Yanni’s Pick – Bears -2.5 (Bears 26, Lions 23)
JJ’s Pick – Bears -2.5 (Bears 23, Lions 20)
vs. 
NEW YORK GIANTS (2-7) at NEW YORK JETS (1-7)
Sunday – November 10th – 1:00pm
Spread: Giants -3
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: New York Giants 65%
The Breakdown:
The once every four year battle for New York (or New Jersey) takes place with two teams that are reeling in reverse when the Giants and Jets square off in the Meadowlands. If you look at the trends it’s near impossible to find anything historic to give an edge in this game as both teams have been pathetic in nearly any statistic you can find. With this game being irrelevant in terms of the postseason, this is for city bragging rights, and building for the future with young quarterbacks and coaches.
The Giants played the Cowboys pretty tough last Monday night until the end and if they had been able to convert some of their red zone trips into touchdowns may have come away with the upset. The Daniel Jones hype has slowed just a bit which is understandable, but if you’re wanting to jump back on that train this is a good week to do it. The Jets were torched a week ago by Ryan Fitzpatrick and just flat out aren’t playing well at all defensively outside of their safety tandem of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. And even they haven’t been particularly amazing when you look at their PFF grades. With C.J. Mosley out this unit continues to struggle and Jones should be able to get back into a rhythm throwing the football this week despite the fact he’ll be minus Evan Engram and Sterling Shepherd again. Jones has found a nice rapport with Golden Tate and even though he pulled a disappearing act on Monday, Darius Slayton should be able to make some plays this week. Saquon Barkley continues to looks very average since the return from his ankle injury although when you have defenders in the backfield it makes it really tough to put up a good stat line. You’d have to guess that the Giants are going to really work to get Barkley going in this game, and they should have some success.
Meanwhile the New York Jets continue to be abysmal on offense as the media is really starting to place the potential bust label on Sam Darnold. As is the case with Jones, this is a great week for Darnold to quiet the critics, at least temporarily. The Giants can’t figure out how to stop anyone and when you look at the scheme they’re running it’s fair to suggest it’s as much coaching as it is a lack of talent. Le’Veon Bell will again try to get going behind a line that hasn’t done he or Darnold many favors, and also against their former teammate Leonard Williams.
It seems weird to say in a game involving two teams with a combined three wins, but this is a really big game for Sam Darnold. He has to be feeling the pressure and not just the pressure in his constantly collapsing pocket in front of him. Can he come out and put a good offensive effort forth for himself and head coach Adam Gase? The winner of this game is no sure thing as both teams are pretty poor at the moment, however there is one thing that is pretty certain at this point. The future seems to look a lot brighter for the G-Men than it does for the J-E-T-S in New York (or Jersey).
Yanni’s Pick – Giants -3 (Giants 28, Jets 23)
JJ’s Pick – Giants -3 (Giants 27, Jets 24)
vs. 
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-3) at TENNESSEE (4-5)
Sunday – November 10th – 1:00pm
Spread: Chiefs -6
Over/Under: 49.5
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 67%
The Breakdown:
The NFL world welcomes back the electric Patrick Mahomes from his dislocated kneecap and the Chiefs look to continue their winning ways against the tough Titans in Nashville. Will Mahomes be able to pick up with he left off, or will the suddenly impressive Ryan Tannehill keep the Titans in the AFC playoff race?
This Kansas City offense really is something to behold and you have to give the Chiefs organization a lot of credit for assembling the speed and talent to overwhelm opponents. There was some overheard chatter at the sports bar last week that the guys bellied up to the bar could put up 20+ points quarterbacking that Chief offense, and the crazy part is that’s only mildly ridiculous. All KC will be doing this week is adding the league’s most talented quarterback back into the fold who will no doubt be eager to get back to work. The Titans have played well defensively this season as you’d expect, however they haven’t seen a multi-faceted attack like they’re going to be seeing on Sunday. Andy Reid will undoubtedly find some advantages, and look for one of the Kansas City playmakers to have a big game. Which playmaker will that be? We have absolutely no idea, but someone is going to have a big day on this offense every week.
Ryan Tannehill deserves a lot of respect this season as he came over unceremoniously, held a clipboard as a backup, and then was inserted into the lineup midstream. He has played very nicely and although he may never be what his counterpart in this game is at the quarterback position, he’s stating the case that he can be a winning guy in this league. You’d think Tannehill would find success this Sunday against the Chiefs defense, however while people weren’t paying attention, this maligned group has actually been playing decent football. Getting Chris Jones back on the defensive line was a big boost for certain, and as the many new faces on this unit have started to get more comfortable playing together, this defense is no longer a punchline. Tennessee will be looking to run Derrick Henry as much as possible to move the sticks and keep that KC offense off of the field. Of course Steve Spagnuolo is well aware of this so as is the case with most defensive coordinators planning against the Titans he will make stopping Henry priority number one. That means that Tannehill is going to have to make some plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving with his tight ends, and wide receivers. A key matchup will be whether or not Taylor Lewan is able to contain Frank Clark when the Titans have to throw as Tannehill has played very well when he’s had a clean pocket to throw.
Despite JJ’s lean towards Tennessee, we’ve got a square bet official play posted laying the points with Kansas City. Fortunately, we got a bet in at -3.5 Monday while in Vegas, however giving less than a TD for this Chiefs team is not out of reach at all.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -6 (Chiefs 31, Titans 22)
JJ’s Pick – Titans +6 (Chiefs 24, Titans 23)
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-5-1) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-6)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Buccaneers -4.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Public Money Percentage: Tampa Bay 51%
The Breakdown:
Only five combined wins between the Cardinals and Buccaneers in a matchup that showcases a quarterback on the rise, and perhaps one that is on the decline. Both teams have been competitive, yet neither have been able to close out games and come away with wins consistently. Points could be plentiful in this contest so all of you daily fantasy football players don’t hesitate to load up in this game.
Although the 3-5-1 mark of the Cardinals may not get their fanbase super hyped, the flashes and the fight this team has shown each week has to be encouraging. David Johnson looks to return in the backfield to work with new addition Kenyan Drake in a combination running/receiving tandem. Drake was impressive in his debut against the 49ers and having his versatility with Johnson allows the Cardinals to really open up their playbook and run a lot of different formations and patterns. Tampa Bay has been strong all season against the run so look for Johnson and Drake to be featured more in the passing game than just running between the tackles. Kyler Murray will of course be the guy throwing the passes and he could give the Bucs’ some fits with his athleticism. You certainly can’t put Murray in the same breath as Russell Wilson yet, however his style is very similar to what the Seahawks signal caller brings to the table. Wilson dissected Tampa repeatedly both in and out of the pocket and Murray should be able to find some similar success. Christian Kirk who has been quiet due to being out of the lineup with injuries could be in line for a really nice game as TB has struggled to defend the slot position. The interior of Tampa’s defensive line has played well and that may force Murray to use his legs a little more than he has been throughout the season. In case you weren’t sure, that is actually a really good thing for the Arizona Cardinals assuming he can avoid taking some big hits.
Even when Jameis Winston is doing some good things on the football field, which he does more than people give him credit for, he just can’t seem to catch a break. Despite having several chances to beat Seattle last week, Winston had some unfortunate mistakes including an unforced error of dropping the football leading to a costly turnover. He should find some opportunities for big plays with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in this game, although Patrick Peterson should be able to at least slow Evans down on the outside. Ronald Jones took over the starting running back spot and he provides a bit more of a spark and opportunity for big plays in the running game. The ground game is generally not a big factor for TB and it likely won’t be here either although anything Jones can give them is helpful. The biggest and most obvious area of concern is if the Bucs’ can keep veterans Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs from wreaking havoc off of the edges. It’s impossible to see the future of an NFL football game, but it sure seems like visions of strip sack fumbles could be a serious reality in this game.
KEY STATS – The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games as a
favorite.
– The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after a
road loss
A good portion of NFL bettors are hesitant to wager on anything involving the Buccaneers due to the inconsistency of Jameis Winston. He can throw 5 touchdowns or turn it over 5 times, or both, leading to a roller coaster of covering and not covering during a game. That’s a legitimate concern, however we really like Arizona getting the points in this spot. Tampa played an exhausting game a week ago and suffered a loss that essentially ended their season. With a lackluster homefield advantage, how much are they really going to get up and be ready to play flying back across the country? If you check their recent trends they are one of the worst home teams against the spread in the league. This game should be a close one and it’s possible that Arizona could actually win outright so we’ll take the 4.5 points and hope we get more bad Jameis than good Jamies.
Yanni’s Pick – Cardinals +4.5 (Cardinals 30, Buccaneers 28)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +4.5 (Buccaneers 27, Cardinals 24)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (1-7) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-1)
Sunday – November 10th – 1:00pm
Spread: Saints -14
Over/Under: 51
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 65%
The Breakdown:
Early in the season you could have glanced ahead and circled this as a potentially great football game with heavy potential playoff implications. Unfortunately for the Atlanta Falcons things didn’t quite go to script and as a result the New Orleans Saints are roughly two touchdown favorites entering Sunday’s divisional contest.
Speaking of early in the season, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was really struggling and contributing to the team’s inability to put check marks in the win column. Prior to injuring his ankle a couple of weeks ago, Ryan was actually playing some pretty good football, and not just in garbage time. It’s a pretty real possibility that Ryan’s window along with the Falcons has closed, or is really darn close to closing as this team just seems to have too many holes despite some talented players on offense. Ryan will give it a go off of his ankle injury against the Saints, a team he has had some really huge games against over the course of his career. The Saints defense has been on an absolute roll this year and it’s going to be tough for Ryan to match some of his previous performances. The Saints defensive line is playing really hard-nosed football and they’ll undoubtedly overpower the beat up and poor Falcons offensive line which will make a long day for Matty Ice. Devonta Freeman and the running game have been stuck in neutral all season and it won’t get any better for them due to the fact they’ll be losing that battle at the line of scrimmage.
If the Saints can get out to an early lead, Sean Payton could potentially end up using this game almost like a preseason contest. The offense could get a little vanilla and you could even see some guys getting playing time who normally don’t see the field much. In the first half of the game however, get used to seeing Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray running the ball a lot and having a ton of success. The Falcons defense really doesn’t have a way to take away any part of what New Orleans wants to do on offense so Drew Brees and company should have little trouble moving the ball. As was the case on the other side of the ball, the Saints offensive line has a distinct advantage over the soft Falcons defensive front seven.
In the comfort of their home stadium, and with a far superior roster the Saints could probably win this game by 40 if they really wanted or needed to. Simply by showing up and executing their gameplan that could very well happen anyhow. If you’re betting this game though at least give the thought of a backdoor Falcon cover some merit.
Yanni’s Pick – Falcons +14 (Saints 33, Falcons 20)
JJ’s Pick – Saints -14 (Saints 34, Falcons 13)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-7) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-3)
Sunday – November 10th – 4:05pm
Spread: Colts -11.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Colts 52%
The Breakdown:
Fresh off of their first win of the season the Miami Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts who have yet to name a starter for the contest as Jacoby Brissett will be a game-time decision at quarterback. It shouldn’t really matter who’s playing QB in Indy as the Colts should be able to lock down a victory, however if you’re betting this game things become a lot more interesting.
It’s kind of crazy to see Ryan Fitzpatrick’s name and picture up for the FedEx Air award from week nine, although I guess a matchup with the Jets will help make that happen. Fitzpatrick has played differently this year than he has in years past as he hasn’t been quite as flashy, but also hasn’t been as reckless in turning over the football. He’ll have a tough challenge Sunday as the Colts defense has played well most of this season and will be at home looking to stay in wild card contention. The Dolphins suffered a tough setback when one of their few bright spots in rookie wide receiver Preston Williams was lost for the season with a knee injury. Williams was really coming on strong and was clearly Fitzpatrick’s favorite target on the outside. Additionally, the Dolphins talented, yet oft-troubled new running back Mark Walton was suspended for four games for violating the leagues substance abuse policy leaving Kalen Ballage as the starting running back. Combine that with an overmatched offensive line and it’s tough to see how Miami is going to be able to score.
Whether or not Jacoby Brissett plays quarterback or not could ultimately decide which team gets the cover in this game as the Colts are better with their leader than backup Brian Hoyer. Hoyer actually played well in relief last Sunday other than a bad pick six and if he does get the nod he should still find success against the horrendous Miami defense. If you’re the Indianapolis Colts, doesn’t this seem like the perfect opportunity to try to get the running game going? The Colts have stalled for the most part running the ball in recent weeks after getting off to a good start early in the season. Marlon Mack should have another breakout contest which would do wonders for this teams psyche heading into the second half of the season. Outside of that, look for advantages all over the field for Indy even without number one wideout T.Y. Hilton who will miss another game.
Anytime the Dolphins are involved there is a chance for a huge rout so if you want to lay the big number with the Colts, we certainly wouldn’t blame you or question it. For that reason we aren’t betting this game, but we’ll pencil in the Dolphins taking the 11.5 and see if they show up or are already thinking of their end of season vacations.
Yanni’s Pick – Dolphins +11.5 (Colts 23, Dolphins 13)
JJ’s Pick – Dolphins +11.5 (Colts 28, Dolphins 24)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-4)
Sunday – November 10th – 4:25pm
Spread: Rams -3.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 62%
The Breakdown:
Don’t look now but the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-4 and hosting a game they have a realistic chance to win when the Los Angeles Rams come to town for a Sunday afternoon game. Most people outside of the Steeler faithful counted this team out after the injury to Ben Roethlisberger, yet with a win here they would right in the middle of things in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Rams need a win to keep pace in a top heavy and loaded NFC if they are going to try to get back into the playoffs this season.
The narrative for Los Angeles a year ago was that Jared Goff and the offense couldn’t put up points on the road and the defense was a liability. The Rams have actually been 5-1 ATS on the road in their last seven and Goff has played markedly better. Goff will need to play well for the Rams to steal the road win as this will be a tough test against a strong Steeler pass rush in a game where the Heinz Field crowd will be fired up and ready to make some noise. When you breakdown this game, this absolutely has to be a Todd Gurley and company run the ball first type of game. The Rams should be able to win this game if they simply don’t make big mistakes and turn the ball over. Pittsburgh has feasted off of big plays and turnovers from their defense (by the way nice pick up landing Minkah Fitzpatrick). Brandin Cooks is out again and LA has turned to Cooper Kupp to be the featured player in their offense which he will again be Sunday. The Rams need to have a Robert Woods sighting and or something from their tight ends to provide a little balance and relief to Kupp and Gurley. The Steelers will look to rattle Goff early as they know in order to win this game they’ll need to put their offense in some good positions or possibly even score themselves as they did a week ago.
It’s a banged up group for the Black and Yellow on offense as James Conner has been ruled out making Jaylen Samuels the featured guy behind Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Juju Smith-Schuster is likely going to draw Jalen Ramsey in coverage so someone on Pittsburgh is going to have to step up to help get some points on the board. The challenge is trying to figure out who that person might be? Can Jaylen Samuels put together a big day running the football, or can Vance McDonald or rookie Diontae Johnson make some plays in the passing game? One thing that would be really helpful is if the underperforming Steeler offensive line picked up their play and hold Aaron Donald and company down to a mild roar.
The sharp money is actually coming in on the Steelers so far in contrast to the larger percentage of public money pouring in on the Rams laying points on the road. For that reason we’re staying away from this game as it’s just hard to see how Pittsburgh is going to be able to manufacture offense in this game. The Rams are semi-desperate and Sean McVay has had some extra prep time for this game so we’re leaning Rams and going against the sharps here.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -3.5 (Rams 23, Steelers 16)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -3.5 (Rams 24, Steelers 20)
vs. 
CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-3) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-2)
Sunday – November 10th – 4:25pm
Spread: Packers -5
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 56%
The Breakdown:
The Carolina Panthers head to the cold of Lambeau Field to due battle with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in an important NFC battle of playoff hopefuls. Carolina comes in off of an impressive win against the Titans while Green Bay wants to redeem themselves after a sleepwalking through a bad performance against the Chargers a week ago.
You can argue that Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson are the MVP halfway through the season, however if you aren’t at least considering Christian McCaffrey, you are flat out wrong. McCaffrey is pretty single-handedly using his athleticism to carry the Panthers offensively and it’s likely this team wouldn’t have more than a win or two without him in the lineup. McCaffrey has another juicy matchup against Green Bay who continues to struggle defensively slowing down opposing runners. With the weather expected to be cold, it’s safe to assume Ron Rivera will be looking to put the ball in McCaffreys hands repeatedly to minimize potential turnovers and keep Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense off of the field. Kyle Allen looks like he’s definitively the man now in Carolina as it appears face of the franchise Cam Newton has probably played his last game for the organization. Allen has settled in nicely, although he has a tough assignment this weekend against the GB pass rush on the road. If Carolina wants to come away with a road win on this one they need to get off to a fast start, much like the Chargers did against GB a week ago. If they fall behind and are forced to drop back with Allen in obvious passing situations this game could get out of hand. If you are a Panthers fan, you’d like to see tight end Greg Olsen become a little more involved in the offensive game plan as well, specifically in this game against a team he has some familiarity with from his days in Chicago.
Nobody in the Green Bay locker room seemed to panic after the abysmal performance in Los Angeles and that’s actually a really good thing if you’re the Packers. Aaron Rodgers should calmly rebound in the comfort of Lambeau where he is decidedly better than he has been on the road his entire career. With the weather again looking somewhat frigid, look for heavy doses of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams offensively as the Packers will try to assert their dominance on the offensive line. It goes without saying, but if this game does turn into one where passing is needed, the advantage clearly goes to Rodgers and Green Bay. One other note of importance is that if the weather conditions aren’t ideal, Mason Crosby stands to have a big advantage kicking in the stadium he has a lot of familiarity with.
We’re on opposite sides of the fence in this game as JJ likes the undervalued Panthers to stay hot and scratch out a cover in a close game. Yanni thinks this is a full rebound game for Rodgers and the Packers with homefield advantage being the difference in the outcome and the cover.
Yanni’s Pick – Packers -5 (Packers 27, Panthers 20)
JJ’s Pick – Panthers +5 (Packers 28, Panthers 27)
vs. 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-3)
Sunday – November 10th – 8:20pm
Spread: Cowboys -3
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Dallas 51%
The Breakdown:
Even though Monday Night has the game of the week, the Sunday Night Football crew gets a close runner up when the 6-3 Vikings travel to the 5-3 Cowboys in a game that almost certainly will have some playoff implications down the line. After silencing critics from early in the season, Kirk Cousins regressed a bit last week in a tough loss to the Chiefs while Dak Prescott did just enough with the help of his defense to get a win against the Giants. There will be a lot of Pro Bowlers on the field and this should be a one of the better prime time contests of the entire season.
For a short window it almost seemed like Kirk Cousins had gotten the monkey off of his back of not being able to win big games on the road. A mediocre offensive performance, to be generous, brought some of those chants from the media back into focus for Cousins and you have to wonder what his confidence level will be like going into Sunday. The Vikings offense faces a big challenge on the road as Dallas has been downright dominant in their home stadium playing better on offense and defense. An additional challenge will be facing the Cowboys without Adam Thielen as it looks like his lingering injury will probably force him to miss the game. Without Thielen, the Vikings become a lot easier to defend as teams can focus more on containing Dalvin Cook with only the up and down Stefon Diggs to truly worry about in the passing game. Minnesota’s offensive line was outplayed against the Chiefs last week and if they have that same effort, Dallas will be able to get pressure all over Cousins with Robert Quinn, Demarcus Lawrence and newly acquired Michael Bennett who made an impact in his first game Monday night. Ultimately, what Minnesota does on offense will boil down to what Kirk Cousins is able to do playing under very bright lights in a hostile environment.
Ezekiel Elliott carried the Cowboys on offense for most of the game against the Giants as their passing game stalled for the majority of the game before finally getting going late. That really shouldn’t come as a shock as Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper in particular have been very average when they have played on the road going back to last season. The difference here is they’ll be playing in Jerry’s World, where both have been tearing up the stat sheet and scoring at a high pace. Even with Xavier Rhodes covering Cooper, you can expect him to have his typical big day in a home game. Michael Gallup is another receiver that you will be hearing a lot from and could be a potential home run hitter in this matchup. The Vikings will know doubt be focused on containing Zeke Elliott, however that’s not what’s likely to hurt them in this game. The two keys for the Vikes’ defensively will be trying to win in the trenches against the Cowboys talented and healthier offensive line, and avoiding giving up the big plays over the top. Minnesota has as good of a defensive line as the Cowboys will face this year, but we don’t see them having enough success against the big boys in Dallas.
KEY STATS – The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog
This game is 100% about the location of where it is being played. You have one team that’s exceptionally good at home, and another that is substantially poorer on the road. Yes it’s true that Kirk Cousins played some good football during October and we’re actually happy for him as he takes more heat than he probably deserves. However, history tells us this is a game where Cousins will absolutely choke, and any doubt of that not happening is out the window with his favorite receiving target sitting on the bench. Look for the Dallas pass rush to get after Cousins and it’s possible there could be multiple big turnovers in this game. We went with the Vikings a week ago and lost, so it’s always a gamble to go against them the following week as things tend to even out, but the history and trends are simply too heavily weighted in the favor of Dallas.
Yanni’s Pick – Cowboys -3 (Cowboys 27, Vikings 20)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings +3 (Vikings 26, Cowboys 21)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (8-0)
Monday – November 11th – 8:15pm
Spread: 49ers -6
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 65%
The Breakdown:
Monday Night Football has the game of the week as the 6-2 Seattle Seahawks and red hot Russell Wilson visit the undefeated and equally scorching San Francisco 49ers. Will Seattle be able to continue it’s stellar play on offense against a very good 49er defense at home? If there’s any quarterback that has the ability to break that defense it’s certainly Russell Wilson with the way he’s playing. His offensive line has been playing well and Chris Carson has been better than Pete Carroll could have hoped for giving them much needed balance and making them really tough to defend. Tyler Lockett who was viewed as a bit of a “gimmicky” receiver is putting up big plays and big numbers every week as he and Wilson are completely on the same page. We’d suspect that the Seahawks will move Lockett around as they usually do to avoid locking horns with Richard Sherman all game. Even though Lockett will be a marked man, it’ll be critical for him to make some plays for Seattle to win the game. Perhaps the biggest question of this game will be how will the dominating defensive line of San Francisco look to contain Russell Wilson? As good as they have been thus far in the season, they haven’t faced a quarterback like Wilson, who’s playing the best football of his career.
Jimmy Garroppollo made a big statement a week ago proving he could carry the team offensively when the defense wasn’t completely dominating. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the league if the Niners’ can put together a strong offense to match that usually tough defense. Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman both are in line for nice games here as the return of left tackle Joe Staley from injury only makes San Francisco even stronger. The 49ers may start out with a conservative gameplan, but they’re going to have to push the ball and make some plays as the Seahawks will find ways to move the ball and score. This game should be a lot of fun to watch.
