PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-8

SEASON RESULTS:
9-10

Week 2 Recap:

There is a nauseous feeling in our gut as we have to recap what was the worst prop weekend we have had in over 5 years. We basically doubled our prop plays from what a normal NFL weekend looks like for us, and we paid the price going a meager 4-8. That puts our season total under .500 for the first time with props in almost 4 years. The only good news is, it’s a long season and we’ve got plenty of time to right the ship. As we look back at what went wrong, it wasn’t simply overextending that hurt us, we had our share of bad beats as well. We lost three bets by the .5 hook, including Aaron Jones rushing yardage total as he didn’t take a handoff in the final seven minutes of their Monday Night win and he sat on 67 yards, falling just shy of the 67.5. We also missed the hook with both Cole Beasley and Dalton Schultz’s reception totals. We had another injury induced loss, as Tyrod Taylor missed the second half of their ballgame, ending the likelihood of him hitting his rushing over. There were some legitimately bad losses as well, Chris Carson highlighting that group as he averaged under 3 yards per carry and never threatened his yardage over. Derek Carr also made us eat crow as we had his yardage under, something he smashed through as his two week hot start has been as impressive as anyone in the league. Perhaps the wildest part of our prop weekend is, we started 1-0 about 3 minutes into the Sunday as Devin Singletary broke a long touchdown hitting his over on his first carry. The hot start didn’t carry over, as we’re now on to week number three.

Week 3 Preview:

A much more “typical” card for us in week three as our plays are narrowed down to seven player props. We’ve got a better mix this week as well of some overs and some unders, at most of the skill positions. We’re fading a couple of the league’s top quarterbacks, and looking at a few complimentary wide receivers to make some plays in the AFC North battle between the Bengals and Steelers. A couple of plays in the Sunday and Monday night games round out the wagers as we look for a strong rebound, and hope week three is kind to us.

Our Picks:

Lamar Jackson – Under 216.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs treated the football community to a great Sunday evening game, that saw Lamar Jackson flash his way to a late victory. Jackson and his team should have a slightly easier matchup Sunday when they travel to Detroit to take on an overmatched Lions team. The Lions have fought hard in their first two contests, however they’re simply overmatched as they go through their rebuilding process under new head coach Dan Campbell. Lamar Jackson should have plenty of success versus the Detroit defense and thin secondary, which is actually why we’re fading his yardage total. Plan to see a lot of the Baltimore running backs in this game, especially if they’re up in the second half. There is a concern that a long TD to one of the speedy wideouts could put this under in jeopardy, and yet we’re pretty comfortable rolling with it anyways.

Stefon Diggs – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

There’s been some nervous chatter around Buffalo regarding quarterback Josh Allen’s slow start throwing the football. Allen has looked out of sync and inaccurate, missing some easy throws, and forcing some passes that just weren’t there. Even with that concern, Stefon Diggs has still started the season fine hauling in 13 passes in his first two games. This is being locked in against some good cornerbacks, including Xavien Howard last weekend, who traveled with Diggs almost exclusively. The Bills stated they want to get back to basics offensively, which means a lot of Allen to Diggs on the offensive side of the ball. Although Washington corner Kendall Fuller is a quality player, he’s not on the level of a Xavien Howard, meaning Diggs should find some room with his precise route running. Our rule with Diggs is anytime he is under 7 receptions, we have to take him, and with his total sitting at 6.5, we’re playing our numbers here.

Tyler Boyd – Over 57.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Our other repeat play involves catch machine, Cole Beasley taking his game to South Beach for an important game against the Miami Dolphins. Much as we stated a week ago, anytime you can get Beasley under 6.5 catches it has to be an automatic play no matter the matchup. If you need some extra ammunition to fire on this bet, it’s worth noting that Josh Allen has destroyed the Dolphins during his young career. With Stefon Diggs likely to see a lot of Xavien Howard, Beasley should again be a popular target in the passing game. His 8 catches for 60 yard stat line against the Steelers should end up being duplicated this Sunday against Miami.

James Washington – Over 34.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

One of the more talented receivers that a lot of people aren’t familiar with is the Steelers James Washington. Buried on the depth chart, Washington doesn’t see a ton of snaps or targets on a weekly basis. That will change this Sunday when the Steelers host the rival Bengals minus top wideout Diontae Johnson, who will miss the contest with a knee injury suffered in garbage time a week ago. Chase Claypool and Juju Smith-Schuster will see some additional looks, however it’s Washington who stands to benefit most from the injury to Johnson. Ben Roethlisberger has publicly stated that James Washington is a guy that can make this offense go, and when he is on the field, the QB looks his way often. With the Bengals keeping an eye on Claypool and Smith-Schuster, don’t be surprised if Washington has as many targets as anyone on the field Sunday. With a yardage total at just 34.5 yards, we’re expecting a smooth over hitting here.

Robert Woods – Over 1.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

This is the simplest bet to break down as wide receiver Robert Woods prepares to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What you’re basically betting here is that the Rams will run one form of a jet sweep during the course of the game. True, it does need to go forward for two yards. Since Sean McVay arrived in Los Angeles, Woods has averaged 1.5 carries per game as he is a staple in their offensive attack. Add in the fact that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the most stout defenses against opposing running backs, and you can bet McVay will want to try to mix in some more creative rushes. Look for Woods to get a handoff or two in this huge matchup, and cash this over.

Aaron Rodgers – Under 278.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Having a short memory can be good for a quarterback, although the same can’t always be said for a sports bettor. A strong second half for the Green Bay Packers against a poor Lions team, has a lot of America forgetting about just how poorly the Pack looked in their first six quarters of the season. Green Bay travels to San Francisco in an important tilt against the San Francisco 49ers, a team that had their way with GB a couple of seasons ago. Things shape up a little differently in this contest as both teams are missing some key talent, which should make for a competitive ballgame. The 49ers got some good news as defensive starters Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw and corner Emmanuel Moseley all look like they’ll be good to go for the evening game. Conversely, Rodgers will be without tackle Elgton Jenkins, weakening what was already a questionable offensive line. San Francisco should put a lot of pressure on Rodgers, which could make for a tough evening. Fading a great quarterback like Rodgers in a primetime game might seem scary, but this is simply a tough spot for the quarterback to really perform in.

Ezekiel Elliott – Under 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t tuned out the noise about his disappointing work since signing his massive contract a few seasons ago. He’s saying the right things, and is fired up to quiet the chatter in the team’s divisional Monday Night Football game with the Eagles. How much success Elliott may have could depend on the flow of the game, as this one is shaping up to be more of a passing dual, at least on paper. The Eagles are off to their usual solid start on run defense allowing opponents under 3.8 yards per carry in their first two games. The real reason that we’re taking the under 62.5 rushing yards for Elliott is he is clearly a platoon running back at this point with the more explosive Tony Pollard. The Cowboys may not publicly talk about it, but realistically, Pollard is more of an RB1 than Elliott is, and could see as many snaps as Elliott in the backfield. A tough matchup, and a “half” workload is enough for us to steer clear of Zeke in week three.

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