PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3

SEASON RESULTS:
40-37

Week 10 Recap:

Much like our complaining on our weekly plays, we’ll do a little here with our week 10 prop results, which came in at a 2-3 mark. This would have almost certainly been a 3-2 had JuJu Smith-Schuster not been knocked out cold in their game against the Jaguars. Realistically, 3-2 wouldn’t have been a ton to celebrate anyhow, although it would have been the difference between ending in the black or the red. Our two wins were the over for Saquon Barkley with his rushing total, and the under for Austin Ekeler. Our losses were uglier, as we took a chance with Mack Hollins, with the absence of weapons for the Raiders. He was a non-factor in the game and didn’t come close to his yardage total. The other miss was on the guy who had been pretty much automatic to this point in the season, and that was with Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins offense continued to roll, and Hill had a productive game, however he couldn’t get near his yardage total as Miami ran the ball effectively. It was a slim week for a reason, and not the end of the world, but certainly needs to be better moving forward.

Week 11 Preview:

The day has come when we have multiple Chicago Bears on our NFL player prop sheet, and we’re actually playing their over totals. This could be a sign of the end of the world, or that the Bears have figured some things out offensively. In addition to those two over plays, we’re going with five other players that we are looking to have big days on Sunday. There’s a repeat performer from last week that cashed, and a pair of quarterbacks in somewhat unconventional roles. There’s one pretty big name out there at wide receiver, and some lesser talked about skill players with favorable situations and matchups. As it all shakes out, we’ve got a total of seven wagers ready to go in week 11.

Our Picks:

Saquon Barkley – Over 99.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

In a league full of large athletes, there are a select few that just seem to be on a different level in terms of their strength and athleticism. The Giants Saquon Barkley falls into that category, as he continues to look great in what has been a fantastic comeback season thus far. Sunday he has another strong matchup against the Detroit Lions, a team that has struggled pretty much all season on the defensive side of the ball. The weather will be cold, and a little windy in East Rutherford at kickoff, which should result in a lot of carries for Barkley. He toted the rock 35 times a week ago, and while he likely won’t see that many attempts, 25 is certainly a possibility. With his average, going against the soft Detroit defense, this is another game where he really should top the 100 yard mark on the ground.

Josh Allen – Over 43.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Three weeks ago Josh Allen was the overwhelming favorite for league MVP as the Bills were trying to lock in the number one overall seed in the AFC. A couple of losses and bad interceptions from Allen, and all of a sudden the pitchforks and fire are out in the national media. To complicate things for Allen and the Bills, they are losing a home game after six feet of snow pummeled Orchard Park, forcing them to move the game to Detroit. The team didn’t get to practice and has a difficult travel schedule, which could lead to a tougher matchup against the Browns than what was originally anticipated. For these reasons, we really like Allen’s rushing yardage total this week. The simplified game plan, and necessity for a win should limit the playbook a bit, so Allen may have some designed runs locked in. The Browns have been one of the worst teams in the league at allowing opposing quarterbacks to run against them, giving up over 7 yards per carry. Additionally, the Bills are down to just four wide receivers on their active roster, so outside of Stefon Diggs, the trust level may not be there for Allen into tight windows. This is especially true after the bad interceptions over the last two games. Allen has topped this rushing total in all of the last 3 games and all but twice this season overall. That’s more than enough for us to wager on the over.

Justin Fields – Over 249.5 Yards Passing and Rushing Combined (-115)

From a fantasy football perspective, no one has been hotter than the Bears Justin Fields over the past two weeks. The game on Sunday against the Falcons isn’t about fantasy points, however those statistical victories should translate to player props on the field. Fields has been decisive and confident, throwing the ball better than he ever has in his young career, all while putting up record-setting type of numbers running from the QB position. The Falcons have not been able to generate a pass rush, and could be in for a bit of a track meet on the turf in Atlanta. Fields should find some success both passing and rushing yet again. The Falcons secondary is pretty banged up, so it’s tough to tell that if that will translate to heavy passing, or if Fields will stick with what’s been working on the ground. For that reason, we’re playing his total yards passing and rushing, which seems set a bit too low for how he’s been playing.

Darnell Mooney – Over 44.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

If Justin Fields is going to throw the ball, someone needs to be on the receiving end, right? There’s no clear superstar receiver for the Bears, but Darnell Mooney is their most talented, and has been coming on a bit as late as well. Mooney has topped 53 yards receiving in 7 of the last 8 games as he and Fields have started to develop some chemistry. The Falcons secondary is thin, and A.J. Terrell may or may not be able to go with a lingering injury. We’re not huge fans of Mooney, but the trends and statistics simply line up too well to pass on taking a chance with him Sunday. We’re expecting a lot of points in this game, and Mooney should be a part of things.

CeeDee Lamb – Over 77.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Another player that’s been looking better in recent weeks is Dallas Cowboy wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. The talented receiver is coming off of his best game of the season where he snagged 11 passes for 150 yards against a really good Green Bay Packer secondary. As Michael Gallup works his way back from his knee injury, Dak Prescott is looking Lamb’s direction often. In fact, in games where Prescott has played, Lamb averages over 8 targets per game. The Cowboys are looking to rebound with another road game against an NFC north opponent when they travel to Minnesota. The Vikings defense hasn’t been awful, but they have given up yards to opposing receivers, including number one wideouts. Lamb has the speed to beat Patrick Peterson, and the route-running to beat Chandon Sullivan when he lines up in the slot. We’re expecting a pretty big day from the Cowboys offense, and Lamb should be the focal point of the passing game.

Brian Robinson, Jr. – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Of all of our player prop bets, this is probably the riskiest wager based upon the player. Brian Robinson, Jr. is averaging barely 3 yards per carry during his rookie campaign, as he works his way back from his shooting-related injury. Why would we then play an over with a total of 62.5 yards rushing, a mark that he’s only bested twice in seven chances? This is completely a fade against the Houston Texans defense, and in particular their rush defense. The Texans are a near historically bad run defense, already giving up over 1600 yards rushing and over 5.2 yards per carry. The Commanders should get production from Robinson and Antonio Gibson, who will be more of the third down and receiving back with J.D. McKissic out again. It may take him 20 carries or more, but Robinson should get over the 62.5 total eventually in this game.

Courtland Sutton – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

Things have been beyond disappointing in Denver for the Broncos in the first year of the Russell Wilson experiment. That would include the lack of production from wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who has tailed off big time after a nice start in the first three weeks of the season. If there is ever a chance to rebound it’s in this contest against the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that has one-upped the Broncos for most disappointing squad in the AFC West. The Raiders are giving up a ton of yards through the air and have basically started rebuilding their secondary in the middle of the season. Despite a valiant effort from Maxx Crosby, the Raiders cannot get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, registering just 10 sacks on the season. Wilson should have some time in the pocket, and Sutton should have time to get open. There’s also a huge reason as to why Sutton should get a bunch of targets in this game. Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler will both miss the contest, and even Kendall Hinton is a question mark entering the game. As the only experienced wideout for Wilson to look at, expect a lot of passes in his direction. Despite a bad streak of receptions in the season, this is a week where Sutton can break out of his slump and beat his reception total.

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