After a successful special edition to usher in the 2022 season, we shift gears into a routine with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-8-2022. Opening Day reminded many of us just how sweaty baseball games can be. Granted, my getting cute with the Guardians first 5 inning bet cost me a stellar day. Or maybe it was the dropped fly ball in the bottom of the 5th inning in K.C.? Regardless, I’m happy the results – especially dodging the Padres’ 9th inning meltdown – and now it’s time to move on.
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Today’s edition is a Solo Shot since I’ll be joining our friend Big Tasty to break down the evening games on his live stream/podcast this afternoon, so be sure to tune in!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
BOSTON RED SOX @ NEW YORK YANKEES (-160)
POSTPONED FROM THURSDAY 7/7
N. Eovaldi (R) vs. G. Cole (R)
What was supposed to be a great way to kick off Opening Day festivities instead turned into a primo kickoff for Friday’s slate. Good weather crosses paths with an expectation for run suppression out of this pair of aces. These guys have had their sh*t together for quite a while, save Eovaldi’s 2019 season. Eovaldi’s resurgence since the shortened 2020 sesason creates a baseline mid-3.00 FIP expectation for the season ahead. The last couple years marked his transition from a more ground ball contact focus into a high-strikeout, low-walk ace profile that the Sox can rely on. Nathan dropped his sinker and changeup and dialed in on four secondaries including a wipeout curveball that this Yankees lineup could struggle with – aside from big hitters Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Opposing him is a model of reliability, Gerrit Cole. Since breaking free of the Pirates’ pitch to contact approach, Cole has delivered 30%+ K rates and filthy swinging strike rates for four straight seasons. Granted, this Boston lineup is not strikeout prone but the Yankees’ ace will push that restraint to the limit this afternoon. We all know just how oppressive Cole is on a regular basis with a fastball and sinker that reached career-high velocities in ’21. Macro expectation: the Yankees’ ace is a 1/3 run better than Eovaldi without adjusting for opponent, both guys try to make it through the 6th. Neither starter should be affected by weather issues this afternoon in the Bronx: 60 degrees with 12 mph winds blowing straight out. Anticipate the slightest of biases going toward the hitters.
Splitting Hairs With the Hitters
What’s not to like with these lineups? New York gets Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo for a full season now. The plan is to jam enough big hitters into one lineup and make up for a disappointing 2021. I’m a buyer for the most part. Half of the Yankees hitters are .250 with power guys, then there’s Joey Gallo who is all-or-nothing with plus defense. We all know that this lineup is as powerful and dangerous as any in the MLB, especially with the complete package Aaron Judge anchoring it. He, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, and Anthony Rizzo have all had success throughout their careers against Eovaldi as well. Although the Yankees scored 2 or fewer runs in four of their five matchups against Eovaldi last season, the final face-off was a doozie. Plus New York’s struggles to convert runs in 2021 should be a thing of the past. I’ve bumped up their production against righties by a healthy 8%.
That’s certainly not to say that I don’t love the Red Sox lineup. They have slightly more reliable hitters and plenty of power that translates over to ’22. Boston’s relative success against Cole last year comes with the caveat that their lone matchup in the Bronx went to Cole. You almost have to expect that Boston will need to string together a small hit parade in an inning or two to get to Gerrit. Especially as both bullpens are strong. N.Y.’s depth should be less of a factor fresh out of the box assuming both starters work 5+ innings. Each unit’s back end pieces should give bettors on both sides confidence. Slight edges in starting pitching and bullpen go to the Yankees. Likewise, I rate Boston’s offense about 1% better irrespective of opposing starter.
WAGER: Red Sox +138 (Listed N. Eovaldi)
You can get better than +145 on the Sox today. I rebooked this one a touch too early after Thursday’s wager was cancelled. All things considered, anything in the +130s is good to back either one of these AL Central titans, especially in game one of the season – even if it means squaring off against the 4x All-Star. The market appears to have established +140 as the floor. This is anything but a cake walk but healthy plus-money is a go for me.
Heading for Home
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