PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-6

SEASON RESULTS:
8-13

Week 3 Recap:

As great as our overall week three was ATS and with our standard plays, it was equally disastrous with our prop bets. Ironically, our article from last week mentioned that week three is when we believe prop betting becomes easier. Oof. The result was an awful 2-6 including missing our favorite play badly. We fully expected Carlos Hyde to have a great day running the football and it just never really happened. Although he scored a touchdown he finished the day with a pitiful 19 yards rushing falling 35 yards shy of his over total that we really felt good about. It didn’t get much better for us from there. We were fortunate to get a John Brown cover and Daniel Jones easily beat his rushing total, but outside of that just a lot of disappointment. Adam Thielen had a productive day for the Vikings scoring twice, but the yardage just simply wasn’t there. Same went for Zach Ertz who didn’t get the amount of targets we expected with Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson sitting out. Kenny Golladay and Aaron Jones were never really even close to hitting their overs so there wasn’t even any drama, just straight depression. After a string of nice prop bet success this week really hurt. We’re jumping back on the horse though with some plays we like in week four.

Week 4 Preview:

After the week we had part of our strategy for this week is to go back to some basics with some really consistent plays. It may result in a little bit higher juice, but we want to get back on the winning track so we’re going with some plays that have a high chance of hitting. See pick number one as an example.

Our Picks:

Patrick Mahomes – Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (-125)

If we’re going down with props this week we’re going down with the best there is. Is there any game this season that we wouldn’t expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 3+ touchdown passes? Short of a stealing some TD passes with runs from the one yard line this sure seems like a layup. Fortunately a lot of the Chiefs TDs come from outside of the red zone which should eliminate those rushing touchdowns. A lot has bee made this week about Mahomes having not played inside a dome, but will that really matter?

Mark Ingram II – Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We’ve been able to cash in on Mark Ingram’s over totals already this season and we’re going to keep riding the hot hand until it burns us. At this point in the season it’s surprising Ingram hasn’t received more love as one of the top running backs in the league. Hitting 70 yards for a hard running featured back isn’t asking a ton, particularly with a solid matchup against a Cleveland team that has been a little bit soft against the running game. The Browns defense is built on the pass rush and their talent is on the edges and not up the middle. Additionally, the Browns starting corners are both inactive for this game which means they can’t really stack the box needing to lend a little help in the secondary.

Derek Carr – Under 254.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Derek Carr is a classic case of a quarterback that plays better at home than on the road. A trip to Indianapolis in what could be a bit of a slugfest means that his lack of road production should continue. With Darius Leonard out in the middle of the Colts defense the Raiders are looking to establish rookie Josh Jacobs and the running game. If this game stays somewhat close, which it most likely will, look for Carr to be more of a game manager than a gunner in this one. Without a ton of deep threats beyond Tyrell Williams it’ll be tough for Carr to get a lot of chunk plays against this Colts D. This seems like a game where Carr may be hovering around that 200 yard mark when the clock hit’s 0:00.

Dede Westbrook – Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)

If you caught the Thursday night game you saw Dede Westbrook dropping a lot of catchable passes headed in his direction. This is the case of a rebound game where he should have a lot of involvement. Chris Harris, Jr. will be matched up with D.J. Chark and Westbrook will be lined up primarily in the slot where the Broncos have given up a lot of of catches and yards to enemy receivers. In a revitalized passing attack with exciting rookie Gardner Minshew tossing it around, look for Westbrook to grab enough passes to go over.

Sterling Shephard – Over 63.5 Yards (-115)

It’s amazing how one change at leader can mean so much to an offense that has ten other players on it. That’s exactly what we saw last week with rookie Daniel Jones as he put the nail in the coffin of Eli Manning’s career in New York. Jones was confident and accurate throwing the ball and has a juicy game against the Redskins at home this week. Sterling Shepard is the clear number one target at wide receiver on this team and he’ll be going against Josh Norman, the former start that Pro Football Focus has rated as the lowest performing starting cornerback in the league through three games. Because the Giants also can’t stop anyone there should be enough points where Jones will need to keep throwing throughout. Without Saquon Barkley in the lineup, other than tight end Evan Engram, Shepard is really the only weapon that should heavy targets Sunday. Just 64 yards? Sign us up.

Jameis Winston – Under 276.5 Passing Yards (-115)

After a rough season opener Jameis Winston has rebounded with a pair of nice performances including getting Mike Evans involved in the deep passing game. Week four is a trip to Los Angeles to face a Rams team that has been very strong at home and tough against opposing passers specifically. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard are a little banged up which won’t help the cause for the Bucs’ and Winston. Technically, this is a really bad matchup as Tampa’s two star wideouts will be lined up opposite of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters who have been playing very well to start the season. There is a bit of risk in this one as the Rams are pretty heavy favorites. If they get off to a fast start it could force Tampa into full passing mode so garbage yards are a possibility so tread cautiously with this one. The right side here is definitely taking the under.

Kyler Murray – Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

For the first time this season Arizona got the offense moving on the legs of Kyler Murray last weekend. You’ve got to believe that they got a clear picture of what can be with Murray being more of a dual-threat to open up this offense. The Seattle defense has been vulnerable against the pass but it will be Murray’s legs that get the over prop cover today. The total is very manageable for someone with Murray’s athleticism, particularly playing at home. A couple of nice scrambles and this one should hit.