Previous Week Plays – 1-4
Season Record – 25-29-1
WEEK 13 RECAP:
Sigh… Just when we thought we were getting in a groove and had things figured out for the stretch run of the playoffs, a disastrous 1-4 week that started with a double-whammy on Thanksgiving Day. The complete egg that the Dallas laid hurt as as we had them as part of a teaser and directly against the spread. Starting 0-2 before even hitting Sunday is about as nausea producing of a way to go into the weekend as there can be. Sunday was only mildly better with a 1-2 finish hitting on our teaser but missing on both over totals that we played. Unlike our Dallas bet which was really never even in play after the first quarter, both overs looked like they were going to hit before the ball completely deflated in the second half. I mean after all, if you had told us the Bengals would have 22 points in their game, we would have assumed the over blew well over. Even had they hit though, we would have only finished 3-2 so we clearly have a lot of work to do as we look into week fourteen.
WEEK 14 PLAYS:
A diverse spread for us in week fourteen as we’re playing an over, an under, a game against the spread and a two-team teaser. There’s a lot to factor in at this point in the NFL season as taking into account how much teams have to play for, coaches on the hot seat, and of course weather conditions in outdoor games all are important. There were about nine potential wagers we were looking at this weekend and will be keeping an eye on, but the four that we’re definitely posting and betting are below. We need a big weekend and could stand to have a few balls bounce our way as we look to improve upon our paltry seasonal record.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) ATS(7-5) at New England Patriots (10-2) ATS(7-5)
Sunday December 8th
4:25pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
New England Patriots -3 (-110)
Over/Under 49.5 (-105)
An exciting and important rematch of last year’s AFC Championship as the Chiefs high-powered offense takes aim at the Patriots shutdown defense. New England is probably the most criticized 10-2 team we’ve seen as their lack of production offensively is starting to worry even the most devoted fans of the team. Kansas City has played the Pats as tough as anyone in the league the last few years and needs this win for both potential playoff slotting and to prove they can get over the hump.
The box score from last week’s Chiefs game against the Raiders was one of the strangest in recent memory as they blew out Oakland despite very limited offensive production. After routinely tossing for 400 yards early in the season Mahomes has been held under 200 yards the past two games as they’ve relied on their defense and special teams a little more. It’ll be tough sledding for them this Sunday against the Patriots as they’ve dominated in December at home and their defense continues to play well despite their offenses continued struggles. For starters the Chiefs will be looking to a new backfield to lead them at running as both RB Williams’ are ruled out. While LeSean McCoy has proven he can still be productive, the Chiefs have really been limiting his usage and will be leaning on rookie Darwin Thompson and his fresh legs to get the tough yards. Their may be yards to be had on the ground as we have to imagine that the Pats will be focused on taking away Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and the passing game. The Chiefs are stacked with weapons so the task of taking away their best weapon is almost null and void for New England. Expect Belichek to work on taking away the explosive plays and making this a bit of a grinder, taking his chances with Thompson and McCoy.
Mentioning that the Patriots are a 10-2 team under a hot microscope is really focused on Tom Brady and their offense which has been absolutely anemic the past month of the season. The offensive line has been mediocre at best, the running game can’t get going at all, and the rotating cast of wide receivers has been completely unable to get separation to make plays resulting in a lot more punts than we’re used to seeing and an under 50% completion rate for Brady. On paper this would appear to be a good opportunity for Brady to get things going as the Chiefs 25th ranked defense has struggled most of the season. Steve Spagnuolo has gotten some nice play out of them recently however which doesn’t make this a walk in the park for the Pats offense. On the injury report for KC, their best defensive player Frank Clark is a question mark and he’s a big part of what they want to do in terms of getting pressure on Brady. Isaiah Wynn has done a better job at tackle than Marshall Newhouse at watching the blind side of TB12, but it still hasn’t been great and Clark could potentially own that matchup if he can play. Brady has actually always done fairly well working around edge pressure with his amazing pocket presence, where he’s had trouble in his career is when the middle of the line collapses. Chiefs DT Chris Jones is the most important defensive player in this game and whether or not he can get a push up the middle could determine if Brady continues to struggle or can get back on track throwing the ball. We’re talking a lot about the passing game, yet it’s the running game for NE that is likely to play a big part in the flow of this game and potentially the outcome. The Chiefs have been gashed on the ground and there is no question that Josh McDaniels is well aware of this. The running back trio for the Patriots is likely to see a lot of work not only because it’s a weakness they feel they can attack, but also to dictate the pace and tempo of the game.
KEY STATS: The total has gone under in 9 of the last 13 Patriots
games
These two teams have averaged over 70 combined points in their previous three meetings so 49.5 is an interesting number. The movement has gone up, only slightly which is a little surprising as we expected this to top 50 by game-time, which it still could. When we broke this one down there were a few things that stuck out to us that determined what we wanted to bet. The obvious is the struggles of New England’s offense, however it’s the recent mortality of Mahomes and the Chiefs offense that is also appealing. Looking beyond the team’s, it’s actually the “scheme” that is the ultimate reason we like this to be a little lower scoring than recent matchups. The Patriots are going to try to slow this game down by running the football as much as they’re able to and they’re going to play a defense that encourages the Chiefs to do the exact same. Throw in the fact that it will be a blustery December day and a total in the low to mid forties seems a lot more practical than a 70 point shootout.
BetCrushers Take: Under 49.5 – Total
New England Patriots 23, Kansas City Chiefs 20
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
New York Giants (2-10) ATS(4-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) ATS(4-8)
Monday December 9th
8:15pm
ESPN
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -9 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Time will stand still briefly on Monday Night Football as Eli Manning lines up at quarterback for the New York Giants in what could be his last national performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. Thanks to the fact that the Dallas Cowboys can’t seem to win a game, the Eagles are still very much alive in the race for the NFC East division title. Even though the Giants are long since eliminated from playoff contention, there’s no question they would love to play spoiler against their rival on the national stage.
The big mystery for the New York Giants offense on Monday will be how rusty Eli Manning will be, having not played over the last two plus months of the season, and how will the team respond to him being re-instated into the lineup? For whatever it’s worth, Giants offensive coordinator Mike Shula claims that Manning has “that look in his eyes” that he’s ready and excited to go. There are a couple of really good things to be excited for if you like the Giants here. First, Manning should have his full arsenal of weapons as Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram all look like they’ll be a go which gives Manning a lot of options of where to go with the ball. The other exciting thing for Manning is he’s going to watching film of a Miami Dolphins team with basically one legitimate skill position player absolutely torching the maligned Eagles defense. Speaking of Mike Shula, he will have as much of an impact in how much success the Giants have offensively as Manning based upon what kind of scheme he can put together. All season long the Eagles defense has played well stopping the run and struggled defending the pass. If we’re the NYG the goal is to get Saquon Barkley involved more in the passing game than trying to run him in a traditional running fashion. Manning needs to take shots down the field and take advantage of big play opportunities when they are there for him. There’s rarely anything wrong with 10 play drives and the Giants could have some of these, but if they’re going to win and compete in this game they’re going to need some chunk plays as well. This is also a big showcase for the G-Mens underperforming offensive tackles as they’ll play a big part in whether or not Manning has a chance and time to make those big throws down the field.
Due to the debacle of losing in Miami, it was missed that Carson Wentz and the Eagle offense finally had a productive day. The obvious response to that is, “yeah but it was against the Dolphins”. That’s a fair reaction, and actually bodes really well as the Giants are one of the few defenses that have been as pathetic as the Dolphins this season. You can anticipate a similar game plan from the Eagles against the Giants which will revolve around some quick passes, screens, and setting up some shots when they’re available. Eagles fans had to be excited to see some production from some of the lesser known players that they have been looking for all season. The opportunities to run the football should be available so Philadelphia shouldn’t force things that aren’t there. As is often the case when division rivals are playing, how the offensive line handles the Giants defensive line will be the less than sexy, but critically important battle to watch. Zach Ertz was slowed down a week ago and one area the Giants have actually done well with is defending tight ends. Lastly, a critical player to watch is wide receiver Nelson Agholor. If Agholor ends up making plays in this game the Eagles will be in good shape, where as if he’s absent as he often is, it won’t be enough for Philadelphia.
KEY STATS – The Giants are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games
– The Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games as
an underdog
After a hot start under Daniel Jones, the Giants have really struggled through the bulk of the season and as a result have not only lost a lot of games, but gotten beaten handily often. No one thinks that Eli Manning is the answer or anything remarkable at this point in his career, however he will provide a bit of a jolt to this Giants team, much like Jones did when he first took over. Manning will want to have a good showing in prime-time and with his full compliment of weapons should be able to put up some points against a still suspect Eagles defense. The Eagles should have a nice day offensively so expect them to put up their fair share of points as well, but 9 points is a big number for a veteran quarterback in a Monday Night Football game. Should the Eagles really be giving 9 points to anyone at this point after how they’ve underperformed? Give us Eli, and we’ll close our eyes and hope to finish the weekend strong.
BetCrushers Take: New York Giants +9
Philadelphia Eagles 30, New York Giants 23
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Los Angeles Chargers (3-7-2) ATS(7-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) ATS(5-7)
Sunday December 8th
4:05pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
A couple of 4-7 teams and coaches on the hot seat in Jacksonville as the Chargers head across the country after yet another tough loss last Sunday. Los Angeles enters as a field goal favorite as the Jaguars turn back to fan favorite Gardner Minshew at quarterback, essentially throwing in the towel on their $88 million dollar investment in Nick Foles.
Perhaps the most appropriate quote that’s been floated out there this year is “Chargers gonna Charger”. Last week’s bad pass interference call to end the game was another example of LA ending up with a loss in an unimaginable and gut-wrenching way. The heat didn’t fade for quarterback Philip Rivers despite the fact he led a great game tying 2:00 minute drive that included a spectacular grab by receiver Mike Williams. It doesn’t seem like Rivers is stressing things, but knowing the competitor that he is, it’s a safe bet that he wants to play well down the stretch and win some games. He’s got a good opportunity to play well against a Jaguar defense that has been getting run over and torched in recent weeks and will be playing without their best player Myles Jack who was just placed on IR. Rivers will have his opportunities with favorable matchups on both the outside and with tight end Hunter Henry assuming his line can hold up enough against Calais Campbell and rookie star Josh Allen. Where the Chargers really have the best advantage is in the running game as the Jags have been unable to contain running backs recently. Melvin Gordon is due for a true breakout game and he should get a lot of carries and a lot of yardage. As always, Austin Ekeler is in the wings in the passing game and to give a change of pace for Gordon and should also have a productive day.
Jacksonville fans will get their wish when Gardner Minshew resumes his role as team quarterback which should give the stadium and the offense a bit of a spark. In the midst of a disappointing season is the fact that Leonard Fournette has quietly put up a pretty nice campaign and consistently run hard and effectively. The Chargers have performed better in recent weeks versus opposing running backs but yards are to be had as the Jags will certainly look to establish Fournette to help Minshew get back into the flow of things. Minshew does have a clear advantage over the benched Nick Foles against LA in the ability to avoid the pass rush of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Foles was a bit of a sitting duck last week where as Minshew’s scrambling ability should help him to avoid some of the pressure he’ll be facing. With the Chargers secondary finally getting healthy the key matchup in this game is whether or not the Jaguars receivers can make plays in the passing game? They may not be the most feared group in the league, yet if you check their production they’ve actually had a better season than you probably expected.
KEY STATS – The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the
Jaguars against an AFC opponent
– The total has gone over in the previous 3 meetings
between the Jaguars and Chargers
If you’re betting on a game of two teams that are eliminated from the playoffs (not officially) you deserve whatever outcome you get. Translation – We deserve whatever we get. This game has some different dynamics however as both quarterbacks have something to prove and need to put up a good effort. Combine that with the fact that the Jaguars defense is pretty depleted and the team is showing very little motivation and this game could have a lot of scoring. When we get to December we always have to be mindful of the weather, which looks like it’ll be beautiful so no issues there. Let’s take the over and hope for some touchdowns rather than field goals.
BetCrushers Take: Over 43 Total
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Teaser Bet
Kansas City vs. New England and San Francisco vs. New Orleans
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) ATS(7-5) at New England Patriots (10-2) ATS(7-5)
Sunday December 8th
4:25pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
New England Patriots -3 (-110)
Over/Under 49.5 (-105)
San Francisco 49ers (10-2) (7-4-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (10-2)(8-4 ATS)
Monday December 8th
1:00pm
FOX
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Two of the top games of the weekend are featured in a teaser bet where we’re adding six points to a pair of playoff teams. We’ll focus on a breakdown in the 49ers and Saints game below as we gave our analysis on the Chiefs and Patriots in our play with the game total under earlier in this article.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: KANSAS CITY +9 and SAN FRANCISCO +8.5
San Francisco is in the third game of a pretty brutal stretch which saw them hosting the Green Bay Packers, traveling to face the Baltimore Ravens, and now on the road again against the New Orleans Saints. A 1-1 record so far where the more important message is that this team can compete with anyone in the league in any location. This line moved from New Orleans -3 to -2 quickly as fans seemed to realize this narrative as well. If you believe in fading the public, which we often do, grab New Orleans -2 and you have a good shot. We’re not sold on that though as this 49ers team is really darn good. What we do really like is getting this team an additional six points to put them over one score for covering.
As far as the game itself, Kyle Shanahan is proving that his zone running scheme can work with whoever he lines up in the backfield and against any opponent. With Matt Breida shelved Raheem Mostart had the best game of his young career running through a tough Baltimore defense. Breida returns this week so the Niners will have their three-headed monster ready to go against an equally and possibly tougher Saints run defense. Normally this is a strength for New Orleans, however based upon what we’ve seen this season there really isn’t a away to completely shut down this running game. The bigger uncertainty here is can Jimmy Garappolo make things happen in what is sure to be a very loud Superdome? We’ll admit we don’t know the answer to that just yet, but if Jimmy G can simply not make big mistakes, the rest of his team should be able to keep this a very close game. The Saints are a little light at linebacker missing both A.J. Klein and Kiko Alonso so the middle of the field should be open for George Kittle and the backs out of the backfield. Mistake-free is the word in this game for the San Francisco offense.
Sean Payton is one of the most respected offensive minds in the game and he’ll need to work some magic against this tough SF defense. He may have to cover up a bit for the fact that his offensive line, particularly the left side is banged up and playing backups. If there’s one team you really don’t want to have offensive line issues against it’s the 49ers, as their deep and talented defensive line can disrupt any offensive gameplan. They’ll be able to tee off a little more on Drew Brees in the pass rush which will be a nice change after chasing Lamar Jackson around a week ago. New Orleans has been a lot more of a dink and dunk team this season which bodes well for them here as they’ll need to get the ball out quickly and be content with the short passing game. Michael Thomas has been the most consistent receiver in the league and even against some tough matchups he’ll be good for a bunch of chain moving catches Sunday. Jared Cook could be a sneaky player to keep track of against the safeties in the middle of the field with Jaquiski Tartt slated to miss the game. Both of these teams have the firepower to put up a lot of points, but in this game don’t count on that happening. There could be more punting than these teams are used to which should lead to a close contest down the wire.
KEY STATS – The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road
underdog
– The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as home
favorites
The BetCrushers are sticking to their teaser script which is if you can get more than one score on a teaser with a quality/playoff team we’re going to do it. It’s debatable which side of the spread or straight up to take in these games as Kansas City could beat a struggling New England team and San Francisco is good enough to beat anyone including a tough Saints team. These spreads seem just about right so getting six points is nice. Really what it comes down to is we’re banking on the fact that two good teams are going to play in a tight game and won’t get blown out.
