PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-5

SEASON RESULTS:
50-50

Week 13 Recap:

We are 100 NFL player props in on the 2022 season and our record currently sits at exactly 50-50. We landed there after a disappointing 3-5 week number thirteen, which certainly didn’t turn out to be lucky. Not being in the black this late in the season with player props is not where we expect, plan or want to be, but we’re not throwing in the towel, just grinding in an effort to finish the season strong and in the positive. Are picks were pretty “blah” to say the least, starting with Derrick Henry. The Titans offense, and Henry were basically stymied after the first quarter in their loss to the Eagles as King Henry was shut down for the second week in a row. Nick Chubb also failed to get to his mark, although his was more a lack of attempts from their game plan. Chubb was running just fine, but he only ended up with 17 carries, which left him just a little shy of his mark. The one positive there, is we also had Kareem Hunt, and while he wasn’t exactly a workhorse either, the early receptions as we expected got us a win. We split with our two quarterbacks with Russell Wilson not getting the yardage needed, as we faded. However, Dak Prescott also didn’t get to his total, which he figured he’d do with a decent matchup. The Cowboys throttled the Colts and Dak was basically a non-factor in the 4th quarter, making that bet doomed. The easiest cash of the weekend went to Christian McCaffrey and his receiving total, a mark he bested in the first quarter of the game. We rounded out with a loss of Aaron Jones, who was the one piece of the Packers offense that never got off the ground against the Bears, and Chris Godwin, who fell just a few painful yards shy of his total. During the early stage of Monday Night Football, it appeared we’d split a 4-4 week, which we were already not thrilled about, but then we ended up 3-5 which was even more of a punch to the gut.

Week 14 Preview:

This week we’re focused on running backs, although we only have one rushing yardage total in play. Instead, we’re looking at some backs that have some prospects of receiving that line up pretty well. We’ve got one actual wide receiver who has been carrying us to success, and a tight end poised for a bit of a rebound. Seven players in all who we like all to go over their totals, including a quarterback in the Sunday Night Football potential shootout.

Our Picks:

James Cook – Over 12.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

A month ago James Cook was a non-factor in the Buffalo Bills offensive game plan, logging very few snaps, let alone touches out of the backfield. Over the past three weeks, Cook has garnered nearly 45% of the snaps, and has been inserted often on passing down situations. He’s been pretty darn productive when he’s gotten his opportunities, and appears to only be getting stronger and gaining confidence as the season goes on. Speaking of confidence, he’s also earned the trust of quarterback Josh Allen as a reliable check-down player, and coordinator Ken Dorsey in the screen game. The Bills face a tough New York Jets defense that can get after the passer, and cover on the outside. That should mean the backs getting some work as receivers over the middle and with quick throws. The additional touches for Cook, and the opponent should make Cook a viable receiving option this weekend, and with a pretty low total, this should be a winnable wager.

D’Andre Swift – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

Lions running back Jamaal Williams has been one of the nice stories of this season, as he’s been a stud carrying the load for Detroit in the absence of D’Andre Swift. For the first time since he was injured in week two, Swift was back in the mix last week with 14 rushes and 4 receptions, and looked explosive yet again. That bodes well for both him and the Lions as they try to stay hot down the stretch of the season. Sunday they’ll face a Vikings team that still just hasn’t seemed to get things figured out on the defensive side of the football. They haven’t been great at stopping the run, and have given up a lot of big plays in the passing game as well. Swift is very active in both, and while Williams will certainly get his fair share of carries, Swift should also get plenty of work in this contest. In what is projected to be a high-scoring affair, we’re expecting a stat line similar to a week ago for Swift, where he tallied over 100 yards. There seems to be a healthy cushion here, and very little in a game script that could interrupt this bet.

Mark Andrews – Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

After a scorching start to the 2022 season, Ravens tight end Mark Andrews has had to fight through a couple of injuries of his own, and his quarterback in an effort to get back on track. Sunday the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson, which might initially scare you away from Andrews a bit, in a game that will feature a lot of running. There are two main reasons we like Andrews in this spot on Sunday. First, he’s basically the only proven receiving option they have that can work all areas of the field. Second, he’s actually played pretty well in the games with Tyler Huntley filling in for Jackson at QB. Huntley has familiarity with Andrews, and there’s little reason to believe the two won’t be able to connect against an underwhelming secondary of the Steelers. Now that he’s back to near full strength, we’ll lean on the big TE to help his team out and hit is yardage prop.

D’Onta Foreman – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

No one is going to mistake D’Onta Foreman for Christian McCaffrey, who is proving to be a huge factor early on for the San Francisco 49ers. Lost in that trade is the fact that Foreman has played really good football for the Panthers since taking over as the starter. Foreman has mostly split duties with Chuba Hubbard, however the production between the two isn’t really that close. Foreman is a physical runner who has looked really strong especially against some of the softer run defenses in the league. When he faces the Seattle Seahawks, there is little question he will be looking to exploit a defense that has been gashed by several different running backs this season. As wild as it sounds, he should also benefit from Sam Darnold lining up behind center, as he gives the Panthers the most credible threat of throwing the ball downfield. In reality, we know it’s not all that credible, but more so than P.J. Walker and Baker Mayfield. As a result, look for Foreman to take advantage of this matchup in Seattle and come away with one of his better performances of the season, which will hopefully lead to an over on his rushing yards.

DeAndre Hopkins – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

In our first installment this week of, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”, we’re back on the DeAndre Hopkins train in his matchup against the New England Patriots. This is not an easy matchup for Hopkins for a couple of reasons. First, the Patriots have been a tough defense all season against the pass, and second, we know Bill Belichick’s game plan will likely be centered around stopping Hopkins. Despite this, we’ve seen no evidence that Hopkins still won’t get a lot of looks and throws in his direction. Both Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy have routinely looked in his direction, as he’s still able to get open, and can catch it even when he’s covered. Based on what we’ve seen since his return from the six game suspension to start the season, there’s little reason to believe he won’t continue to be a big factor on Monday Night Football. Based on the matchup in his last game we went with his yardage and squeaked by, despite only 4 catches. This week we’re opting for his receptions, rather than his yardage. Because of the style the Patriots play, this lines up more as an 8 catch for 70 yard type of performance than it does a 5 for 100 type of line. Until we lose with Hopkins, we’re going to keep playing him. Hopefully that first loss won’t come this Monday.

Justin Herbert – Over 277.5 Yards Passing (-115)

When a game as an over/under approaching the mid-50’s, it’s a really good idea to take a look at some over props for players. Even with some adjusted numbers, you can argue that there’s at least five or six guys that trend to going over their marks in the game between the Dolphins and Chargers. We decided to officially play Justin Herbert who seems poised for a 300 yard game in what has all the makings of a shootout. For starters, he’ll have his entire weaponry on the field at the skill positions, and in the few instances he’s had that, this offense has played really well. Next, he’s going up against a Dolphins secondary that has given up their fair share of big plays and passing yards on the season. Additionally, the Chargers probably won’t run much, or be able to run much, which means he could throw even more than usual, which is already a lot. And finally, the Dolphins are going to score a lot of points on their end, so the Chargers will need to throw to keep up. With all of those factors in play, we’re backing on Herbert to have a big game in prime time.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Christian McCaffrey is our second player that we’re going to try to keep rocking til the wheels fall off this weekend. McCaffrey cruised past his receiving total last week, and it was only raised one yard for this coming game, which sits at 39.5 yards. The 49ers face the Buccaneers in what could be a bit of a slugfest now that Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t in the lineup for San Francisco. The Buccaneers, while not as stout as in previous years, are still better at stopping the run than the pass. With Brock Purdy making his first start, you can expect Tampa to dial up some pressure on the rookie QB, and put some focus on McCaffrey in the running game. Even when teams are able to lock down McCaffrey as a runner, he still regularly gets his yards through the air. For a young quarterback, having a trustworthy back to throw the ball to, both by design, and as a checkdown is huge. McCaffrey should serve as that outlet valve for Purdy, and that total he crushed in the first quarter last week, should be able to be topped again here.

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