Previous Week Plays – 3-2
Season Record – 35-28-3
Week 16 Recap:
The week got off to an inauspicious start for us as we took a shot at the over on the Saturday game between the Cardinals and 49ers. Fighting for a playoff berth, the Cardinals looked lethargic and were unable to generate much offense. The over was barely threatened and fell short starting our weekend at 0-1. We were able to rebound with a 3-1 mark on Sunday/Monday as our overs and under all hit their marks. The overs hit easily as the Bengals and Texans crushed their mark in the third quarter and the Bills hit their team total early in the third quarter as well. We definitely had to sweat the under out in the Ravens and Giants game as it took a late goal line stand by the Giants to keep the number from going over. Our loss was a rare teaser defeat. The first leg was a breeze as the Bears destroyed the Jaguars, but we went a little off-script teasing up the Titans against the Packers thinking it would be a one score game. That of course was hardly the case as the Packers beat them up in a pretty bad way. It looked like things might be ok early in the third quarter when the Titans pulled within 5 points, but it was all Packers the rest of the way. Another petite winning weekend though as we look ahead to the last regular season weekend of the season.
Week 17 Picks:
As it always tends to do, the NFL season has flown by again as we’re in the final weekend of the regular season. Most of the playoff spots have been claimed, but there is still a lot to be sorted out and played for. One the challenges of week seventeen is always trying to figure out which teams are still playing for something and those who are ready to head home for the remainder of winter. In a sense it’s almost like certain games that serve as playoff type matchups, while others are more like preseason.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (11-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
Sunday January 3rd
4:25pm
FOX
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The San Francisco 49ers are looking to play spoilers against the rival Seahawks, who are hoping to secure a top seed in the NFC for the playoffs. San Francisco will play week 17 short-handed as they have for most of the season in their bid for the upset. One more neutral site game for both teams as they’ll take the field at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
The Seattle Seahawks recent offense could be described as anything from efficient, to timely, to uninspiring. They’d like to regain their earlier season form against the 49ers defense that continues to shuffle players in and out of their lineup. As usual they’ll start with their running game and test the San Francisco interior. Both units have been very average so it’s tough to see one side getting the better of the other to any great extent on Sunday. The game on that side of the ball will be won or lost with the passing game of Russell Wilson. D.K. Metcalf has slowed over recent weeks after his electric start to the season, and Tyler Lockett has been mostly invisible. It will be important for one or both to play well against a good secondary for this win and to try to establish some consistency going into the playoffs. While the Niners secondary is a solid unit, they have given up some big plays throughout the season. It’s safe to say that the constant shuffling of players we stated above probably has something to do with that.
On offense the 49ers will give C.J. Beathard the nod again after he played a really nice game a week ago. He’ll have a tougher task in this one though as he’s facing the league’s top scoring defense over the last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 17 points in a game in their last 5 contests. This particular matchup is a little bit of strength against strength as SF wants to use its zone running to open up their offense, while the Seahawks pride themselves on stopping the run first. The 49ers will be without Trent Williams at left tackle which doesn’t help in this battle. They will start Jeff Wilson, Jr. for a third straight game and hope three is a charm as he’s been unstoppable in his last two ballgames. It’s tough to envision he’ll have the same running lanes he’s seen in his previous two outings though. If they Niners are unable to get the running game going, it’s going to be a really tall task for them to generate offense as their passing game is hampered, to say the least. Already playing without Deebo Samuel, rookie Brandon Auyik will miss the game as well, leaving Beathard without much on the outside to throw to.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks have allowed 17 points or less in 5 straight games
– The Total has gone under in 5 of the last 5 Seahawks games
– The Total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 49ers games
With the Seattle Seahawks it’s always dangerous to lay more than a FG as they tend to play a lot of close games. We expect them to cover on Sunday for the simple fact that the 49ers offense is so depleted of weapons in the passing game. This game obviously means much more to the Seahawks who are still fighting for a possible number one, two or three seed in the playoffs. There are several plays that we like involving the Seahawks. The two that we’re posting are listed separately in this article as we have them in a teaser format later. For the game play, we’re locking in the San Francisco 49ers team point total under 20.5 points. Between the resurgence of the Seahawks defense with the addition of Carlos Dunlap, and the return of a healthy Jamal Adams, how much can San Francisco come up with on offense? We’re banking on them staying in the teens.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers – Total Under 20.5
Seahawks 24, 49ers 17
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1)
Sunday January 3rd
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Baltimore Ravens -13 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
There is still a lot to unpack in the AFC Wildcard picture, however the Baltimore Ravens are in need of a win at the least to secure a postseason berth. They’ll travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals as each team has played well over the past few weeks. Will the Bengals have the effort and the talent to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens or will Baltimore continue steamrolling into what they hope is a deep playoff run?
It took a little while for Lamar Jackson to find his stride, but he has responded in a big way in the month of December. He’s having fun and looks like the MVP player we were all captivated by in 2019. One team he torched a season ago was the Cincinnati Bengals, as he’ll take the field needing a victory to try to secure a playoff spot in the jumbled AFC Wild Card picture. The Bengals are winners of two straight, although they were gashed by David Johnson and the Texans in the running game last week. Jackson and the Ravens have to like their advantage in the interior and stretch running games. Rookie J.K. Dobbins is emerging as a capable lead back, and the steady and underrated Gus Edwards is quietly racking up consistent five yard runs again this year. Lost in the great running is the fact that Jackson has actually been throwing the ball pretty well too as Marquise Brown has become a factor again and we’ve even seen Dez Bryant getting involved in the offense. The Bengals will commit their safeties in the box so Jackson at some point will need to get his receivers or tight end Mark Andrews the ball.
The Bengals proved just how poor the Texans defense is as Brandon Allen absolutely torched them through the air, without Tyler Boyd in the game. The Ravens may be without Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey at the corners, but don’t expect a repeat performance from Allen against a Ravens defense that is starting to come together at the right time. With their defensive line getting healthy and rounding into form, it could be a rough day running the football for Cincinnati, and Allen will see a lot of pressure. Kudos to the Bengals for playing hard throughout the season, but it’s safe to wonder how motivated they will be, especially if they fall behind early?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 Ravens games
– The Bengals are allowing 26 points per game in 2020
This football game really shouldn’t be close, and in all honesty it’s probably safer to lay the two touchdowns than taking the points. We simply can’t lay that many points however in a divisional game that could have a backdoor cover option, etc. Instead we’re opting to take an angle of something we feel a lot more confident in. The Ravens team total is set at 27.5 and we like them to clear the 30+ point mark in a game they need. If they can get up early, they should roll, and it’s just too tough to expect the Bengals to hold this team under that mark.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens – Total Over 27.5
Ravens 31, Bengals 17
Teaser Bet
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (4-11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)
Sunday January 3rd
1:00pm
FOX
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (10-5) vs. Houston Texans (4-11)
Sunday January 3rd
4:25pm
CBS
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Tennessee Titans -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 56 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Buccaneers -.5 and Titans -1.5
We’re back to our standard teaser format as we’ve got two teams favored by roughly a touchdown that we’re counting on to get important wins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to be clicking at the right time and look to hold off an Atlanta Falcons team that pushed the Chiefs to the brink just a week ago. The Titans need to close out AFC South foe Houston if they’re going to be able to compete in the playoff tournament.
Oh those tricky Atlanta Falcons. Just when you think you have them figured out they completely flip the script, as they did last week against the Chiefs. This week they’ll end their season trying to spoil the fun of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. This game could potentially be a fun one if Matt Ryan can get the offense going. That will be a bit tough however as we know the Falcons will struggle running the football against the Bucs defense. Without the threat of the run, the TB pass rushers will look to get Ryan uncomfortable in the pocket and should have a good chance of making that happen. It’s possible Ryan and Calvin Ridley might make some things happen, but overall, this one doesn’t seem to line up great for the Falcons offense. The Buccaneers on the other hand seem to be clicking at just the right time. The Falcons secondary is not exceptionally deep which is a concern against a Tampa offense that can march out half a dozen weapons on any given play. Ronald Jones II returns from the COVID list and should have fresh legs to power the running game. Things are lined up for Brady to have another big day, unless Atlanta can duplicate the pressure and coverage they surprisingly manifested against Patrick Mahomes. The difference in styles between the Bucs and Chiefs however could be Brady’s willingness to check the ball down quickly, whereas Mahomes seemed to still want to get the ball downfield when pressure was in his face.
There may not be a team more eager to take the field than the Tennessee Titans, who really put up a dud on national TV against the Green Bay Packers in primetime. Don’t read too much into that though as it was a tough spot and a game script that spiraled a bit out of control. Things will be much different for Derrick Henry and the Titans offense when they get another matchup with the Texans. J.J. Watt’s inspiring speech about hustle and pride was seriously fantastic, but it’s less an issue of desire as it is pure talent on this Texans defense. Derrick Henry may have the highest rushing yardage prop total we’ve seen this weekend and he might go over it. It almost seems inevitable that he’s going to hit the 200 yard mark, which seems crazy. The Titans additionally need to get the passing game clicking again, as Corey Davis was shutdown completely against the Packers, and A.J. Brown was mostly eliminated. Overall this game is a total mismatch when the Titans have the ball. When the Texans have the ball, they have some opportunities as well against a Titan defense that has also not played well. Deshaun Watson should continue to play well, but he’ll have to play flawlessly in order to pull off the upset. He’ll need some help from someone other than Brandin Cooks in the passing game too as even a big day from Cooks wasn’t enough to outslug the Bengals. It will be interesting to see if the Texans rally behind J.J. Watt’s words, or if they’re simply ready to pack up and head into the offseason?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Titans are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Titans are 4-2 versus the Texans in their last 6 meetings
– The Texans are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games
Two teams out of these four need a win to either secure a playoff berth or help their seeding. The other two teams are eliminated and are playing under interim head coaches. There really isn’t a whole lot else that needs to be said when you talk about playing this teaser. Give us the favorites, simply needing to win and we’ll see if they can get it done, as we expect they will.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Buccaneers -.5 and Titans -1.5
Buccaneers 28, Falcons 23 / Titans 36, Texans 30
Teaser Bet
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (12-3) vs. Chicago Bears (8-7)
Sunday January 3rd
4:25pm
FOX
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Green Bay Packers -6 (Even)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks (11-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
Sunday January 3rd
4:25pm
FOX
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Seahawks -.5 and Packers pick
The BetCrushers first multiple teaser bet weekend in over a month as we’ve got two more teams that are just less than touchdown favorites we want to pair up. Future HOF’ers Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers lead their respective teams in the late window, each fighting for the number one seed in the NFC. The Packers are in the driver’s seat and need a win against a feisty Chicago Bears squad, while the Seahawks also need to conquer divisional opponent Arizona.
See our first pick at the beginning of this article if you want to re-read our breakdown between the Seahawks and 49ers. As far as the game between the Packers and Bears, here’s what we’re watching:
The Packers continue to light up the league offensively as Aaron Rodgers has jumped ahead as the MVP favorite in the league and Davante Adams continues to amaze. If any team knows how to contain these two it’s the Chicago Bears. While they clearly know what to do, the question remains whether or not they can actually do it? The first step towards that is generating pressure on Rodgers, something that will be tough as usual with Corey Linsley’s return at center and David Bahktiari playing his usual All-Pro caliber style. The Bears will likely move Khalil Mack around looking for an edge on the outside, and any chance of Chicago pulling an upset rests on Mack and his teammates ability to get pressure on Rodgers. Aaron Jones and the newly featured A.J. Dillon should find some success running the football as the Bears have been average all season stopping the run, and will be focused on Rodgers and the passing game. It’s not the worst thing in the world for the Bears if they give up some yardage on the ground, as long as they’re not getting completely gashed. With Chicago keying in on Adams and Rodgers, Robert Tonyan could be a guy that gets some open looks, especially if there are pressure situations.
On the other side of the ball the Bears are hoping to stay hot. It may or may not surprise you to read that the Bears are the only team in the league to notch 30+ points in four straight games heading into week 17, a trend they want to continue. This has been powered by a return to a power running game and the emergence of David Montgomery. He will be the key again as the Packers biggest team vulnerability is defending the run. The team actually just added Damon “Snacks” Harrison for the playoff run in an effort to get some depth in the middle of the line. Montgomery should find some success, but as usual, the Bears hopes rest on the shoulders of the quarterback position and Mitchell Trubisky. While Mitch has feasted the last month, it has to be noted it was against four of the worst defenses in the league. This will be his first real test in a while as attacking Jaire Alexander, Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage could spell trouble in the turnover department, especially if he’s under pressure. We mentioned Tonyan above, and we’d be wrong for not noticing the nice resurgence of Bears tight end Jimmy Graham. He’s looked like the old Jimmy Graham in the red zone and needs to continue to be a factor in taking some pressure off of Allen Robinson II.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
– The 49ers are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games vs the Seahawks
– The Packers are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 games vs the Bears
– The Packers are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Bears are 1-9 straight up vs the Packers at home in the last 10
Teasing divisional games is a little bit scary as they tend to be close, with a lot of familiarity between the teams. Really this teaser is simplified down in a couple of ways. First, we’re taking the superior quarterbacks as the HOFers should be able to come up big in important spots. Second, favorites have tended to own their opponents in recent years in the head to head matchups, particularly the Packers. Think of it this way… Is Russell Wilson going to lose against C.J. Beathard in a game that means a lot to the Seahawks and nothing to a depleted S.F. team? And is Aaron Rodgers going to fall to Mitchell Trubisky in a game where he understands that homefield advantage means everything to the Packers? We’re going on record and betting the answer to both questions is no.
