THANKSGIVING BREAKDOWN:

For NFL fans Thanksgiving day is one of the best days of the year as we have a full day of games, either in the forefront or in the background with turkey, drinks, naps and we hope no work. Every team on the card is coming off of a loss in week 11, and all are desperate in one form or another. As is the usual case the day starts out with a game featuring the Lions that isn’t going to have much in way of playoff race drama as they’ll take on divisional rival Chicago. The afternoon contest features an old-school battle between the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys. The evening game is an important inter-conference matchup with two teams that really need a win to help their playoff chances. The Buffalo Bills head to New Orleans and take on a depleted Saints team in what is sure to be a rocking dome.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

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Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Thursday November 25th
12:30pm
FOX
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Chicago Bears -3 (-105)
Over/Under 41 (-110)

Every year it seems as though the debate renews regarding whether or not the Lions should be featured on Thanksgiving. This game is a great example as I’m sure a lot of America would love to see something else flexed into the lineup on Thursday. The Bears won’t be featuring their first round pick Justin Fields, so we’ll be watching Andy Dalton get the start. The Lions will seemingly have Jared Goff back at QB, which at least gives the team a fighting chance on offense. They’ll also have the luxury of facing a Bears defense that will be without some of their key components on the defensive side of the ball. D’Andre Swift has been on a tear that last two weeks and the Lions would be wise to feature him both in the running and passing game. Although it’s tough to get behind Goff and the passing game, it is a nice matchup for him with his offensive line against that banged up Bears unit. Rookie left tackle Penei Sewell has been an anchor on a group that has been one of the better crews around the league. If they can keep the Bears without Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks from getting in the face of Jared Goff, the Lions might be able to move the ball despite a lack of weapons. For the Bears, Andy Dalton gives the team a better chance to win right now, although he’ll be without their top receiver in Allen Robinson II. This is a game where you can expect a lot of running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert as they’ll look to establish the run. Going beyond the X’s and O’s, there is the noise surrounding the future of Bear’s head coach Matt Nagy. Roll all of this together and we have what promises to be a basically a game that is impossible to handicap.

Best of luck to anyone who thinks they can find an advantage in this football game. We’ve got a few leans listed below, and may throw a few small degenerate prop bets on the running backs. Overall, this game has to be a pass for us. We’ll have it on, because well, it’s Thanksgiving football. However, this is clearly just the appetizer to the other two games of the day.

BetCrushers Take: No official plays
Leans: Montgomery – Over 75.5 rushing yards, Swift – Over 67.5 rushing yards, game total – Over 41

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Thursday November 25th
4:30pm
CBS
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)

Things heat up a bit in the second game of the day as the Raiders inch towards the stretch run of their tumultuous season. After a fast start the team has spiraled downward on both sides of the football. On paper, this is going to be a tough spot for Vegas, but let’s not forget many people thought they same about the Broncos heading to Dallas a few weeks ago. Lost in the Craziness of the Henry Ruggs situation is the fact they also lost an important cog in their offensive arsenal. Without his over the top speed, teams have been able to play closer to the line of scrimmage, something Dallas will look to do in this game. The Raiders once powerful offensive line has now become a bit of a liability as their running game has largely stalled. Without the running prowess, quarterback Derek Carr has been under a lot of pressure. Carr will have some opportunities to take shots on Thursday, but he has to be careful with the football. The Cowboys defense has been a boom or bust unit this season, often relying on turnovers, and also susceptible to giving up big plays. The Raiders will need to exploit the opportunities they have, and cannot turn the football over if they want to pull off an upset and stay alive in the packed AFC playoff race. The Cowboys on the other hand have a little greater margin for error while they’re on offense. They received some really good news regarding both wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and left tackle Tyron Smith, who both look like they’ll be able to play. The return of Smith should help running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard who have slowed down in the big offensive linemen’s absence. The Cowboys offense and Dak Prescott are on an entirely different level when they’re able to run the football. The Raiders are allowing over 4.5 yards per carry so don’t be surprised if Elliott finds his way to his first 100 yard performance in several weeks. You also can’t underestimate the advantage Dallas has with the familiarity on the short week and being at home playing on Thanksgiving.

Traditional wagering would tell you it makes the most sense to take the points in this stand alone game with two teams fighting for playoff positioning. There’s something here that feels like we could have a repeat of the Cowboys and Falcons game however, and this could get out of hand. The obvious mismatch is Dallas in the trenches, and they should feed Zeke on Turkey Day. We’re playing an official prop here as you probably could tell we really like Ezekiel Elliott to come up big.

BetCrushers Take: Ezekiel Elliott – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing
Leans: Michael Gallup – Over 57.5 Yards Receiving, Tony Pollard – Over 14.5 Yards Receiving

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, enjoy the day!

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

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Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Thursday November 25th
8:20pm
NBC
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Buffalo Bills -6 (-115)
Over/Under 45 (-110)

Things looked great just a month ago for both the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints as both teams were winning and positioning themselves well for the postseason. Here we are heading into Thanksgiving and the Bills are now staring up at the New England Patriots in the AFC East, and the Saints are playing without their starting quarterback and several key Pro Bowl talents on offense. The Bills offense has sputtered of late as the offensive line struggles to run the football or give Josh Allen time in the pocket. The Saints will need to rely on their front seven and homefield advantage in an effort to overwhelm the Bills line. Buffalo will get back starting right tackle Spencer Brown which should help against Cameron Jordan and the pass rush. A player to watch in this game is Bills running back Matt Breida who is likely to see some additional workload after a couple of strong performances showcasing his speed in recent weeks. Ultimately, the Bills need their quarterback to step up and play big in a critical moment, something they paid a lot of money for to Mr. Josh Allen. The Bills signal caller hasn’t played terribly, but he’s missed some easy throws, and made some crucial turnovers, something he wasn’t doing last season. Speaking of turnovers, when the Saints are on offense, things could get ugly for quarterback Trevor Siemian against the opportunistic Bills defense. After getting pushed around and embarrassed by the Colts, the Bills should be fired up and also welcome back a couple of key players in Tremaine Edmunds and Star Lotulelei. With the Saints missing tackle Ryan Ramczyk and possibly Terron Armstead, the front four for Buffalo should be able to get pressure on Siemian in the passing game. The absence of the dynamic Alvin Kamara who will miss his third straight game only complicates things as the Bills should be able to focus on being aggressive. At the end of the day, it’s really asking a lot for this Saints team to be able to perform missing some of the most important players on their roster.

We’re tempted to lay the chalk with the Bills here as they should be able to find their way to a big victory here. There’s just a slight hesitation with both the way the Bills have played, and the potential atmosphere in the Superdome. What we really like more here is fading this Saints offense that is without it’s top talent. You can still find some Saints team totals at 20 out there, and we’re going under and we believe the Bills defense is going to bounce back from their struggles against the Colts.

BetCrushers Take: New Orleans Saints – Team Total Under 20 (-115)
Leans: Buffalo Bills -6, Dawson Knox – Over 35.5 Receiving Yards, Josh Allen – Over 32.5 Rushing Yards

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, enjoy the day!