PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-5

SEASON RESULTS:
41-40

Week 10 Recap:

It was an up and down weekend for our player props as some hit soundly, some barely squeaked through and others were losses. Much like our weekly plays, we got smacked a bit by double-dipping in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers contest with the Washington Football Team. We lost both Tom Brady’s over 2.5 TD passes which we had at a nice +125, and Mike Evans receiving yardage total. Although it was a bit of a surprise the Bucs’ struggled so much in the first half of the game, what was equally shocking is how both of these wagers looked live with nearly a quarter of football left. However, Washington orchestrated a near 12:00 minute drive holding the ball for the duration of the game, and never giving Brady and Evans the chance to hit their very attainable targets. The other somewhat big surprise was how ineffective Justin Herbert was in a game against the Vikings. We were expecting a 300 yard performance from the young QB, and the Chargers simply never got into an offensive rhythm. We had some nice wins as Stefon Diggs finally had a monster performance as we expected, and continued to ride the legs of Jalen Hurts to a cover. Our take on J.D. McKissic was spot-on and cashed, and we needed up until the final carry of the game for Dalvin Cook for his rushing yardage to get home. A pretty fun week of player props, even if it wasn’t the most profitable we’ve ever had.

Week 11 Preview:

A quieter day of props for us this week as we settled on seven total wagers in what is another interesting week across the league. We’ve got a nice mix of overs and unders that include some big name talents, and some new faces on our list. If you happened to catch our weekly picks article you’ll see a direct correlation between our plays and our prop bets. All that means is it’s going to be a really good week or a really bad one. No risk no reward, right?

Our Picks:

Nick Chubb – Over 89.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The best way the Cleveland Browns can avenge their embarrassing loss against the Patriots is to out-muscle the feeble Detroit Lions. That requires a lot of hammering the football with Nick Chubb behind the Browns physical offensive line. D’Ernest Johnson has filled in admirably in the absence of the Browns two top running backs, but this game will feature heavy doses of Chubb. There’s a strong possibility that the Browns get a large lead, which would lead to a lot of handoffs in the second half. Chubb has been really good overall, but particularly strong at home against lesser opponents. We’re counting on a 100 yard day for Nick Chubb and a large win for the Browns this Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers – Under 271.5 Yards Passing (-115)

There is not really much debate in the fact that Aaron Rodgers is still playing really good football after a tumultuous offseason. What’s also not really debatable is that Rodgers doesn’t sling the ball around as much as he has earlier in his career. This Packers team really puts an emphasis on running the football and playing sound defense. If you caught our plays for the week, you saw we like the Packers and Vikings total under, and this bet syncs up along with that analysis. For starters, Rodgers and the Packers aren’t quite as good on the road as they are when they’re playing at home in Lambeau Field. With the exception of the overtime thrill ride against the Bengals in Cincinnati, Rodgers hasn’t hit his yardage mark on the road this season, and that includes three games under 200 yards passing. This prop is going to depend a bit on the Packers defense to keep the Vikings down, so the Packers can lean on A.J. Dillon and their running game. As long as GB doesn’t get down big, Rodgers should be efficient, if not explosive throwing the ball. Add in the fact that wide receiver Allen Lazard will miss this contest, as well as Aaron Jones, and it’s tough to see where 272 receiving yards could come from? Even if Davante Adams has a huge day, we’re still anticipating Rodgers staying under the mark in an important NFC North showdown.

Mecole Hardman – Over 23.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Sometimes in betting you can get drawn in with an appealing number, which is exactly what has us banking on the Chiefs Mecole Hardman this week. Hardman has largely underperformed to expectations with the Chiefs as his speed and talent hasn’t fully translated to big results in the explosive Kansas City offense. There’s no guarantee that Hardman will have a huge impact on their big showdown with the Cowboys, but at just 23.5 receiving yards we’re going to have to play the over. The over/under total is set at a whopping 56.5 points and we’re expecting a lot of offense on both sides of the ball. If the matchup itself isn’t appealing enough, statistically Hardman has only fallen short of this threshold three times this season. With his speed, he always has the potential to hit this with simply one grab. You could do worse than taking a lot of the over props in the Dallas/KC matchup, but with such a low total we’re rolling with this one.

Austin Ekeler – Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We’re actually 1-2 taking Austin Ekeler’s over props this season so it’s a little scary giving him another opportunity against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The biggest reason we like Ekeler is actually because we’re fading a Steelers defense that has been, well, fading. The once stout Steelers run defense has been getting gashed the last few weeks, and are allowing over 5 yards per carry since the middle of October. Add in the fact the team looks like they’ll be without T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden and the unit could struggle even worse. Ekeler is of course a duo threat, but he should see enough touches rushing the football. Assuming Ekeler can be around the 4 yard per carry mark, he’ll need about 15 carries to get over his total. Ultimately, we’re anticipating him averaging even more per carry so let’s see if we can’t even our mark betting on him in the 2021 season.

Brandin Cooks – Over 59.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

If this is a wasted season for the Houston Texans no one has let Brandin Cooks know about it. The veteran has played hard each week and continues to be a steady force at wide receiver in the league. Despite basically being the focal point of the Texans offense, Cooks has been able to use his speed and strong route running to perform at a high level. He’ll take aim at a Tennesee Titan team that he has had some monster performances against during his career. In his last three games against the Titans he’s averaged 8 catches and 101 yards per contest. With a undermanned offense it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be able to fully replicate that success, but we’re still thinking he’ll be a main cog in the offensive gameplan. Having Tyrod Taylor back behind center resulted in 14 targets for Cooks a week ago, and he averaged 11 targets per game before Taylor got hurt at the beginning of the season. The Texans are large underdogs and should be in a throwing mode for much of the contest. Cooks has the speed to make some chunk plays, but we’re expecting him to get some good volume in this game and once again lead the receiving attack for the Texans.

Jeff Wilson, Jr. – Under 79.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

In what unfortunately has become typical 49er fashion, we’re seeing a revolving door of running backs due to injury. After being injured early in the season himself, Jeff Wilson, Jr. has returned and will now get the starting nod when San Francisco takes on the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Wilson should see a solid workload, although it’s difficult to know for sure how Kyle Shanahan will align his backfield. Trey Sermon may see some work, but it’s actually players like Deebo Samuel and Kyle Jusyczk that may see a few carries as well. Lost in a tough season for the Jaguars is the fact they’ve actually been pretty solid defending the run. They’re only allowing 3.9 yards per carry and have held down some pretty tough runners. We all know that San Francisco loves nothing more than to run repeatedly to victory, but we’re going to make Jeff Wilson beat us on this one.

Jaylen Waddle – Over 60.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The BetCrushers listed Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle as our Star of the Week in our DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football article released on Wednesday. This play is mostly a shot at the New York Jets defense as they’re routinely giving up 40+ points no matter the opponent. Waddle should be the main beneficiary for the Dolphins with Davante Parker and Will Fuller V still not in the lineup. Tua Tagovailoa gets the nod at quarterback, and the Crimson Tide teammates have had a nice bond in Waddle’s rookie campaign. In most contests we’d be pretty cautious taking an over with a rookie, but again this isn’t any contest. The Jets secondary is going to struggle, and Waddle will reap the rewards. Our bold take here is that Waddle gets the first 100 yard receiving game of his career on Sunday.

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