Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 2-1
Week 1 Recap:
We mentioned that week one in the NFL is as much about research and observation, as it is about collecting winnings. That’s why we had a slim card with only three total plays, two teasers and one total. Our main objective in the season opening weekend was really to test the waters and search for solid footing and hopefully a few dollars of profit. We accomplished both goals as we’ve reviewed every game from week one, and managed to win 2 of our 3 bets for a 2-1 record to start the season. The year started with a sweat as we had a -1.5 teaser leg with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the kickoff opener versus the Cowboys. The Bucs were able to get the 2 point win in what was a big time sweat against the Cowboys potent offense. We had that paired with the Eagles +9.5, which was really never in doubt as the Eagles looked great in taking out the Falcons on the road. Our second teaser was the square play featuring the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams, taking advantage of getting two heavy favorites under the key field goal number. The Niners managed to hold on after blowing a huge lead to the Detroit Lions. The Rams got up early against the Bears and after a slight response from Chicago, was able to hit the big plays needed to secure a solid win. Overall, a winning week number one is all we wanted.
Week 2 Picks:
There are still many unknowns with the teams around the league as we unpack the 2021 NFL season, including who is overvalued and undervalued? For the second week in row we’re not really looking at games against the spread, with the exception of the monster Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Ravens. Other than that, we’re keyed in on a couple of team totals, and as usual, are working in a teaser bet.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (0-1) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-0)
Sunday September 19th
1:00pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
An important early season divisional game between the Bills and Dolphins in Miami opens up our first official bet of week number two. The Bills are slight favorites, opening at -3.5 against a very tough Miami team that has their eyes set on 2-0 start. Neither team was particularly impressive in their season openers and both look to establish an early dominance in the AFC East.
The Buffalo Bills offense was expected to set the league on fire this season behind freshly paid franchise quarterback Josh Allen. Just because that didn’t happen against the Steelers, doesn’t mean it won’t happen against the Miami Dolphins. Allen has had his best career performances against this Miami team for a variety of reasons. Throwing the football, Allen is generally better versus man coverage as opposed to zone. (That’s the case for a lot of young QBs). When you have players like Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, good route running can beat even the best of man coverage. In essence, your best can beat their best. The Bills QB’s athleticism also helps, as the front seven for the Dolphins is not overly athletic and he can make plays with his legs when he needs to. That’s something he wasn’t able to do against Pittsburgh’s front seven. Head coach Brian Daboll will be an important piece this week as he’ll need to be patient with his gameplan and work in running back Devin Singletary, who shined with limited touches against the Steelers. Everyone knows the Bills want to build their offense around the passing game, but you still have to have some form of a running threat to keep defenses from teeing off on the quarterback. Look for a rebound from both the Bills offensive line and Daboll in a familiar setting.
The Dolphins have done a nice job surrounding their quarterback Tua Tagavailoa with some help, particularly at the wide receiver position. The jury is still out on Tua as he flashes brilliance at times, and looks more like a backup at others. His matchup with the Bills isn’t great overall, and he could struggle in the game if the Bills defense plays well. They started out on fire against the Steelers before fading in the second half. Some of that was coaching, and it’s fair to wonder if some of that is fatigue, something that could certainly be a factor in South Florida in September. The Dolphins best weapon on Sunday will be tight end Mike Gesicki, as Buffalo has struggled covering athletic tight ends in the past. Unless the Phins’ can find a big play down the field, Gesicki will be the teams best option to move the chains. The Miami offensive line hasn’t quite performed to what the team has hoped up to this point, so watch the battle in the trenches on this side of the ball.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games vs the Dolphins
– The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 road gams for the Bills
– The total has gone over 4 of the last 6 games for the Bills playing at Miami
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 5 games between the Bills and Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills offense looked out of sync in a lot of cases against the Steelers. Realistically, their offensive line was whipped by a very good Steelers front seven. Additionally, their offensive game plan was not the best that OC Brian Daboll has trotted out there. They should bounce back and play a little better, and won’t face quite as tough of a challenge versus Miami. As talented as the Dolphins secondary is, their man coverage scheme actually favors the strong route runners of the Bills wide receiving group. Throughout his young career, Josh Allen has absolutely owned the Miami Dolphins, including a monster week two performance a year ago that saw him toss for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns. Look for Allen to get back on track and the Bills to score some points in this game. Because of the hook and playing a divisional game on the road, we’re opting to take the Bills point total over instead of taking them against the spread. The overall total for the game will likely go over as well, but we’re not sold on Tua just yet. This will be a hard fought game, with some big plays and two teams leaving it all out on the field.
BetCrushers Take: Bills Team Total – Over 26.5
Bills 30, Dolphins 23
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-0) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Sunday September 19th
1:00pm
CBS
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
The Houston Texans opened the season with a win and the Cleveland Browns began with a tough defeat. Despite that, the Browns are nearly two touchdown favorites as putting their opponents from week one in context is pretty darn important. The Texans beat up on a mess of an organization Jacksonville Jaguar team, while the Browns nearly pulled off the upset on the road yet again versus the Kansas City Chiefs. The Browns want to get that first victory of the season, and the Texans want to prove their first W wasn’t a fluke.
When you’re facing the Jaguars, you can’t really say it’s a huge surprise, however the Texans offense looked pretty good in week one. If you watched any of the film, (we wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t), they did several things very well. Their offensive line won, and won regularly. This allowed the team to grind out yards on the ground for four quarters. Oh by the way, if you weren’t paying attention, the team has four really solid veteran running backs with Mark Ingram, Philip Lindsay, David Johnson and Rex Burkhead. It was a little surprising that Ingram took the lead in the backfield, yet he ran hard and played pretty well in his first game in Houston. The team also hit some big plays in the passing game, and new QB Tyrod Taylor looked really poised, accurate and athletic. The Texans will try to put that same formula to the test against a Browns defense that was really torn apart by the Chiefs. What we still don’t know is whether or not the Browns defense is not very good, or if it was simply a victim of the Chiefs like many teams before them. The linebacker position looked to be the weakest link for Cleveland, and they’ll be tested by Taylor as part of his repertoire involves running outside of the pocket. Having a full game of film should help the Browns plan on how they’d like to try to contain Taylor and make him a pure passer. Of course getting a strong pass rush from Myles Garrett and company would certainly be a big help there.
When Cleveland has the football, things could really get ugly for the Texans. The Browns offense looked really potent as Baker Mayfield was on point, and the running game was pushing people forward behind their massive line as usual. The team did take a hit when offensive lineman Jedrick Wills was lost with an injury. The group is still very formidable and should have little trouble with a completely overmatched front seven of the Texans. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should find some good running lanes and have big days, and Mayfield will have his way in the passing game without the threat of a pass rush. Cleveland is hopeful they can get OBJ back on the field to expand their offensive play calling even though they won’t need any extra help in this particular spot. It’ll also be a lot easier for Mayfield and his offensive teammates to operate in the cozy confines of their home stadium as opposed to the noise they faced in arrowhead a week ago. This is a complete mismatch when the Browns have the football on offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 9 games for the Browns
– The Texans are 2-7 straight up in their last 9 games
As big of a potential mismatch or blowout as this might be, we simply cannot lay the points in this situation as it’s far too much. The flip side is that we’re not even considering taking the points with this Houston Texans team. The Texans are an interesting team to evaluate because they’re not as bad in some respects as people think, however they definitely have some huge deficiencies. Their offense is actually pretty solid and Tyrod Taylor is a capable leader. The defense though, is one of the worst in the league. Houston may score 10 points, or they may score 30, it’s really hard to know. What is much easier to know, is that they won’t be able to stop the Browns from scoring. The Browns should end up with well over 400 yards in this game and it seems next to impossible that they don’t hit 30 points. Things would actually be helpful if the Texans can actually keep pace so the Browns don’t take the foot off the gas. It seems like the only way the Browns wouldn’t hit their team total over would be if the score ends up 28-3. We’re expecting the Texans to get a few scores and the Browns to really get the offense blazing.
BetCrushers Take: Browns Team Total – Over 29.5
Browns 35, Texans 25
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
Sunday September 19th
8:20pm
NBC
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-110)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)
The league has another dream Sunday night matchup when Patrick Mahomes leads his Chiefs into Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the injury-riddled Ravens. This much hyped game didn’t live up to billing a season ago, when the Chiefs got out to an early lead and were never really tested Baltimore. Will we see a repeat of that game flow, or can the Ravens adapt and have a chance at a much needed victory after their week one loss in Las Vegas?
What more really needs to be said about the Kansas City Chiefs offense and quarterback Patrick Mahomes? After a surgical performance against Cleveland, he leads the team against a Ravens defense that is minus a very critical player in Marcus Peters. The formula for Kansas City is pretty obvious at this point. Give Patrick Mahomes some time in the pockets, and he’ll find one of his super-talented weapons to beat your secondary. Against he Browns he did it with both big plays down the field and short passes moving the sticks and accruing first downs. The Ravens defense will have their hands full trying to get past what is a much improved offensive line compared to what we watched in the Super Bowl. The Ravens defensive line is not bad, however it’s also not great in terms of getting after the passer. Calais Campbell looked like an older player against the Raiders, and outside of a few splash plays from guys like Pernell McPhee and Patrick Queen, the rest of the line and linebackers didn’t look great either. The problem is compounded because of the previously mentioned absence of Marcus Peters on the corner. Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has to be scratching his head trying to figure out how his secondary can try to contain the weapons of the Chiefs. Marlon Humphrey works best in the slot, but someone on the outside should be open often for Mahomes when he wants to throw. Let’s also remember that the Ravens had no answer for Darren Waller on Monday Night Football, and Travis Kelce and Andy Reid are well aware of that. Overall, like with many teams who are facing KC, this is just a really bad matchup for the Ravens defense.
Offensively the Baltimore Ravens still have some things to be excited about despite the loss of their trio of starting running backs. The were able to get some wide receivers into the action, mainly Marquise Brown and new addition Sammy Watkins against the Raiders. Because the Ravens will need to outscore the Chiefs to win on Sunday, these receivers are critical in making big plays. Tyrann Mathieu should return for the Chiefs and he’ll have the task of keeping tight end Mark Andrews quiet, something the Raiders did pretty well. The keys for KC defensively are going to be Frank Clark and Chris Jones containing and pressuring Lamar Jackson. Maxx Crosby was a game wrecker off the edge, and really put the blueprint out for how to attack the Ravens. As is generally the case, the Ravens offense will sink or swim with Lamar Jackson and the running game. Everyone is well aware of what Lamar Jackson can do, yet he’s often struggled in big games against tough opponents. He’ll have to carry the team on Sunday if they want to get the win and avoid and 0-2 start in the AFC.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 34-20 in week 3 of last season
– The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Ravens
– The Ravens are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games vs an opponent from the AFC West
Unless you’re a fan of their opponents, you have to feel a little bit for this Ravens team. Losing all three running backs before week one of the season is almost unbelievable, and very impactful for a team who bases their offense around the running game. The biggest loss is actually cornerback Marcus Peters, as his void in the secondary really alters what they are able to do on the back end of their defense. Even with Pro Bowler Marlon Humphrey still on the field, it’s never good to go against an offense like the Chiefs without a bevy of strong cornerbacks. The Ravens must get out to an early lead if they want to have a chance to win this game. Off of their overtime loss, it’s a lot to ask to be able to compete against this Kansas City Chiefs team. The Chiefs offensive line looked good in week one, and when Mahomes has protection, he flat out puts points on the scoreboard. Look for a slightly closer game than a season ago, but ultimately, the matchup is not good for the Ravens and the Chiefs should handle their business.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -4
Chiefs 32, Ravens 24
Teaser Bet
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Denver Broncos (1-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
Sunday September 12th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Denver Broncos -6 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys (0-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
Sunday September 12th
4:25pm
CBS
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 55.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Broncos pick and Cowboys +9.5
One teaser is on the books for week number two, and as one we had a week ago it features a team teased down and one teased up. The Denver Broncos head to Jacksonville fresh off of an impressive season debut, and the Cowboys go to Los Angeles to face the Chargers in what may resemble a home game in the stands for them. Three of the four teams involved here have some pretty serious early season issues between injuries and culture concerns. Who would have thought the Chargers would be the functional team of the bunch?
The first game of this week’s teaser is going to look drastically different than the second. The Broncos and Jaguars could be a bit of a defensive slugfest, with offenses that might struggled to move the ball. We’re fully expecting the Jaguars are going to have trouble offensively against a pretty stout Denver Bronco defense. The Broncos got some good news as Bradley Chubb has been able to practice a bit as he’d love a chance to go against a struggling Jaguars offensive line and rookie QB. The Jags have some pieces, however head coach Urban Meyer and his staff really seem to be in way over their head at this early junction of the season. Trevor Lawrence is no doubt a potential star, but he needs a lot of help and support right now as he’s learning the NFL game. Denver could end up with a top 5 defense at the end of this season, and anything less than top 10 would be a disappointment. Don’t be shocked if the Jags have a few turnovers again this week with the talented Denver defense. Looking at the other side, Teddy Bridgewater is such a good fit for this offense because he understands what he has with his team’s defense. Bridgewater doesn’t get rattled and knows when to take chances and when to live to fight another day. Against a really poor Jacksonville defense, Bridgewater and his running backs should find little resistance moving the football. Tight end Noah Fant also looks like he’ll be good to go on Sunday, and this is the type of matchup where he could really thrive.
Unlike the first teaser leg, the second game should not have any issues with a team scoring points offensively. With a set total in the mid 50’s fireworks will be aplenty for both the Chargers and the Cowboys. The Chargers are a really complete and nice looking team behind emerging star Justin Herbert. Los Angeles wouldn’t have had a ton of trouble scoring points against a still struggling Dallas defense, as we watched in the Cowboys opener. Things are going to be even easier for Herbert in this game as Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory will miss the contest, all but eliminating any hope of a pass rush. Assuming the Chargers handle their business on offense, all of the pressure turns back to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. Dak proved that he is not only healthy, but very capable of leading the Cowboys offense, although he’ll have some obstacles on Sunday. The good news is he gets All-Pro guard Zack Martin back in the lineup, the bad news is he loses right tackle L’ael Collins, who is a huge piece on that side of the line. He’d be an even bigger piece as that’s where Joey Bosa will be lining up primarily in this game. If you didn’t catch Bosa in week one, he looked absolutely unstoppable. Terence Steele will get the start and will be someone whose name could make or break this game, depending on how often we hear it called. At the skill positions, third wideout Michael Gallup will also miss the game, thinning out the receivers a bit.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 0-10 straight up in their last 10 games
– The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Chargers are 2-4 straight up in their last 6 games vs the Cowboys
The first leg of this teaser should be near automatic as the Broncos are a vastly superior team and should come away with a pretty easy victory. The second leg is a littler riskier due to the fact the Cowboys are missing several key players, and the Chargers look like they are a contender in the AFC. We’ve cooled just a bit on this play with the Demarcus Lawrence news, so you may want to choose a different team if you’re tailing for the second teaser leg. We’re going to stick with our initial play and hope that Dak and the Dallas offense can keep the game competitive against the sneakily good Los Angeles Chargers in what should be a high scoring affair.
