Previous Week Plays – 3-0
Season Record – 52-37

Divisional Round Recap:

A clean sweep going 3-0 in what ended up being the most exciting Divisional Round that we’ve ever seen as all four games ended up being decided with a walk-off score. The road teams took the first three ballgames, and the Buffalo Bills should have made it four for the road squads, however a perplexing series of events with just 13 seconds remaining cost them a trip to the AFC Championship game. Our wager in that game was the over total, which went over after a flurry of 4th quarter scoring and ending in overtime. Despite the loss, the Bills did their part to hit our teaser bet as they covered the number to 8, as did the Rams, who won outright after nearly blowing their huge lead to the Buccaneers. Our favorite stated bet of the week was taking the points with the San Francisco 49ers, and after an ominous start, they managed to lock down the Packers en route to the upset win. Our reads on each game were pretty solid, although we were mildly surprised the Bengals pulled off the upset against a struggling Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. Overall, an amazing weekend of football, and a perfect record with our posted bets.

Championship Round Preview:

There is almost no possible chance that the NFL will be graced with as an exciting weekend as we saw in the Divisional Round. With that being said, these are two pretty compelling matchups that should provide some more fun, and opportunities to cash some wagers. The Bengals claim they don’t want to be looked at as underdogs, however the bookmakers still have them sitting at around a touchdown underdog in Kansas City despite just defeating them a couple weeks prior. The Rams strong performances have them as slight favorite against the 49ers, even though they’ve had their own challenges against the 49ers in the last few seasons. In highly visible and wagered games, the sportsbooks are pretty dialed in, so finding value may not be as simple as it seems. An interesting final four with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, let’s see if we can continue the fun of the past weekend!

AFC Championship Game

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

vs.
Cincinnati Bengals (13-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-115)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)

A second matchup between the Bengals and Chiefs in less than a month as the “been there” home team wants to pursue their dynasty, while the “upstart” visitors are playing with house money. Cincinnati came back to win a good game in their first meeting, although that was played with one of the louder stadium crowds in recent Bengals history. Things will be a little tougher for the young superstars with the raucous crowd in Arrowhead Stadium, fresh off one of the best wins in the history of the NFL. The bookmakers are expecting a lot of points, with an over/under set at 54.5, while the Chiefs rest around a touchdown favorite leading into the game.

THE CINCINNATI BENGALS ON OFFENSE:

There aren’t too many teams equipped to go toe-to-toe with the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, but the Cincinnati Bengals are one of those units. They proved this in their first meeting as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase put up some video-game like numbers en route to their upset victory. Things will be a little tougher for Burrow with the noise in Arrowhead, particularly if his offensive line can’t do a better job of protecting him than they did in the Divisional Round against the Titans. The right side of the line was atrocious, and the rest wasn’t much better as they were run through and around throughout the game. The Chiefs defense has had it’s struggles without question, yet they were one of the most productive units in the league during the second half of the season. The addition of Melvin Ingram bolstered the pass rush, and helped Frank Clark become more productive as a result. That duo on the outside, along with Chris Jones on the interior could make things rough on Burrow in the passing game. Additionally, Cincinnati hasn’t run the ball that well, as Joe Mixon has found himself bottled up on early running downs. If Mixon can’t get going and the Bengals find themselves one dimensional, it’ll put added stress on Burrow in the passing game. Of course the advantage the Bengals have against opposing defenses is their ability to spread them out with their trio of talented wide receivers. After what happened in their first contest, expect the Chiefs to pay a lot of attention to Ja’Marr Chase. Kansas City is hopeful that defensive leader Tyrann Mathieu will return from the concussion he suffered against the Bills. His availability will determine how versatile the Chiefs defense can play and how the attempt to bracket Chase to deter him from making big plays. With attention paid to Chase, the “x” factor for the Bengals could be complimentary wideout Tee Higgins. We watched Gabriel Davis put up a historic performance as the Chiefs constantly doubled Stefon Diggs, and Higgins could fit the role in this game. Most importantly, the Bengals need to stay aggressive on offense, whether that means going for it on 4th down, or taking shots deep over the top.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

The midseason struggles of the Kansas City Chiefs offense seem like they were ages ago as the team is poised to host yet another AFC Championship game. The turnaround starts with an offensive line that has gelled well together headed by rookie Creed Humphrey and free agent left guard Joe Thuney. With better protection, Patrick Mahomes has been able to spread the ball around, and hit some bigger plays down the field. The improved offensive line play has also helped provide some balance in the running game. The backfield for the Chiefs is as healthy as it’s been, as we’ll see both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon taking aim at the Bengals defense still thin behind D.J. Reader at the defensive tackle spot. The Bengals loaded up and were able to slow down Derrick Henry, however it’s unknown just how healthy Henry was after returning from his injury. In fact, D’onta Foreman ripped off a couple of huge runs behind some big holes in the center of the defense. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are a pass first team, they’ll no doubt run if the Bengals play a two deep safety look as they did in their first meeting. When they do throw, expect a lot of targets to go in the direction of tight end Travis Kelce. In their first matchup, Kelce was coming off of the Covid-19 list and was basically a non-factor, although he did find the end zone. Coming off of his game-winning overtime touchdown against the Bills, Kelce should see a heftier workload, especially if the Bengals have to respect the run. Speedster Tyreek Hill also was limited in the first meeting, something that the Chiefs will want to change as well. Look for the Chiefs to work Hill over the middle against zone coverage to get him in space, much as they did against the Bills. If they can get man coverage on cornerback Eli Apple , they may also take some shots at the suddenly very vocal cornerback. The Bengals secondary is solid across the board, but their best shot at slowing down the Chiefs is to get pressure on Mahomes. Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are capable pass rushers and they need to also be wary of Mahome’s ability to scramble if they get too far up field. Mahomes will tuck and run in big situations, as evidenced a week ago when he ran for 69 yards.

KEY STATS:
– The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS the spread in their last 6 games
– The Chiefs are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Kansas City Chiefs 64%

THE SKINNY:
Checking out the stats above you’ll see that both the Bengals and the Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 ballgames, so something has got to give here. Early money has come in on the Chiefs, yet the line hasn’t moved much as a whole. This has the makings of another good football game as two dynamic offenses could trade scores and provide a lot of entertainment for fans. It’s tough to really find much of an edge against the spread as our numbers have this around a touchdown margin in favor of the home team. The Bengals have a similar DNA to the Chiefs and from a talent perspective they’re pretty comparable. There are three key obvious differences that we can spot between these two ballclubs which lead this spread to hover around that touchdown. First, the Chiefs have a better offensive line that will protect their quarterback more consistently. Second, homefield advantage will obviously play a role in this contest as Arrowhead will be rocking. And finally, and most importantly, the Kansas City Chiefs have been here before, while the Bengals haven’t. Accelerating through the playoffs is a process for teams that haven’t been there before. The Bengals have already made a leap and gotten further in the process than everyone expected in Joe Burrow’s second season. The likelihood of them completing this process further is unlikely based on what we’ve seen from newer teams entering the playoffs in the past. We’re going to take the points for our lean here, although it’s not an official play for us. Our official play, listed at the bottom, will feature teasing the Kansas City Chiefs as a team we cannot see losing at home in this huge spot.

BetCrushers Lean: Cincinnati Bengals +7
Kansas City Chiefs 33, Cincinnati Bengals 27

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

vs.

San Francisco 49ers (15-3) at Los Angeles Rams (15-2)
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)

Round three in what will undoubtedly be a knock-down drag em’ out fight between these two NFC West rivals when the 49ers head back to Los Angeles to face the Rams. This will be the 4th straight road game for San Francisco as Kyle Shanahan is looking to extend his winning streak against former staff-mate Sean McVay. The Rams star-studded roster seems to be clicking at just the right time, and despite nearly choking away a victory against the Buccaneers, is playing as well as they have all season. Despite struggling to crack the code against San Francisco, the Rams are 3.5 point favorites as each team looks for a return to the Super Bowl after a couple of rough seasons.

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ON OFFENSE:

As if the pressure of getting to the Super Bowl isn’t enough pressure for a quarterback, how the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo plays in this game could very well decide his fate moving forward as the starter for his team. No one is going to place Garoppolo in the same echelon as the other three quarterbacks playing in the Championship round, but the guy is vastly underappreciated in the grand scheme of things. He’s played well against the Los Angeles Rams, including in their meeting a few weeks earlier where he tossed for 316 yards in their come from behind win. He’s done well against the Rams for a couple of reasons. First, he’s had pretty decent protection against the aggressive pass rush of Los Angeles. That could be tested if left tackle Trent Williams can’t go in this game. You could make the argument that Williams is a “swing” player whose availability could determine the final outcome of the game. Going back to Garoppolo, he hasn’t made the big mistake, something that has plagued him a bit during his career. It could be because he has avoided targeting Jalen Ramsey, which is not the worst idea in the world when you’re playing the Rams. In their most recent meeting Brandon Auyik was the leading receiver topping 100 yards for the Niners, and they’ll need him to have another big game and win his one-on-one matchups. The player who may need to step up the most for San Francisco is tight end George Kittle. He’s been relatively quiet the past few weeks, and going against a secondary that has given up some big plays, he also needs to be a bigger factor on Sunday. Ultimately, we talk about it all the time however, the 49ers go as the 49er running game goes. Eli Mitchell continues to be a workhorse, and Deebo Samuel is even more involved in the running game than he was during the regular season. San Francisco needs strong performances from center Alex Mack and guards Laken Tomlinson and Daniel Brunskill to hold serve at the line of scrimmage against Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive front. The availability of Trent Williams is already a concern on the left side of the line, yet it’s Tom Compton who might be the biggest question mark at right tackle for the 49ers. Compton has struggled since replacing Mike McGlinchey, and he’ll see a lot of Von Miller and Leonard Floyd in this game. San Francisco may have to use Kittle to help if Compton is being overmanned early in the game, which will limit what they can do throwing the football. A healthy 49er offensive line would be able to stand up to the very tough defense of the Rams, but a banged up grouping, may not be able to control the line of scrimmage or keep their quarterback clean.

THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:

Hopefully San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator learned a lesson from Todd Bowles in how not to defend the Los Angeles Rams. Matthew Stafford has played lights out all season against the blitz, something Bowles just couldn’t resist doing a week ago. Because of the familiarity of these teams, the Niners will play more coverage, and hope that Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead can get home with a four man pass rush. They still need to get pressure to force Stafford to throw the ball early, and not hit the deep shots down the field that he loves to take. Some of those deep shots come off of play-action, so whether or not the Rams can establish the run is a huge key to how their offense progresses in this one. Cam Akers has run hard the last two weeks, but never really got going against a tough Buccaneers front. The Niners front is also pretty stout so don’t expect Akers and Sony Michel to gash them for big chunks of yardage in the run game. In fact, since Dre Greenlaw has returned at linebacker for the 49ers, their defense has looked even better than it did earlier in the season. The strong play of their front seven has somewhat covered the deficiencies they’ve had in their secondary. The other good news is it looks as though they may have their full complement of corners and safeties which is good news when facing a Rams team that can spread it out. Cooper Kupp will see his share of targets and is almost a lock for 8 catches and 100 yards, but it could be guys like Odell Beckham, Jr. and Tyler Higbee who are the difference-makers for the Rams offense at the end of the day. If you were one of those people who had buried OBJ (we kind of did), it’s OK to admit you were wrong. The talented veteran wideout has graded out about as high as any receiver in the league since coming over to the Rams midseason. With all of the firepower on the Rams offense, the position to keep an eye on might be at left tackle. Both starting tackle Andrew Whitworth and backup Joe Noteboom are listed as questionable heading into the weekend. The team hopes to have at least one healthy and ready to go, if not both. If neither can go, it’ll result in some shuffling along the offensive line, which is something head coach Sean McVay states he hopes he doesn’t have to do.

KEY STATS:
– The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The total has stayed under in 6 of the last 7 games for the 49ers
– The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Rams
– The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
– The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
– The total has stayed under in 5 of the last 6 home games for the Rams
– The total has stayed under in 4 of the last 6 games between the 49ers and Rams

PUBLIC MONEY: – San Francisco 51%

We’ve all heard the old adage that it’s very difficult to beat the same team three times in a season, however there’s certainly a reason that one team was victorious in the first two contests. When you look a little further, the team winning the first two meetings has actually won the third meeting a surprising 65% of the time. These teams and coaches know all about each other, so there shouldn’t be a lot of surprises unless someone can throw a hidden wrinkle in somewhere. Chances are, the team that makes fewer mistakes and hits a little harder on defense will grind out a close victory. This is another difficult game to break down because of the advantage the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan have had over the Rams and Sean McVay. The 49ers are a really good team, but the Rams are a little bit better, and they’re at home. How much does the coaching and psychology come into play for both of these teams when they get between the lines? The other big question for the BetCrushers is how much of an impact will the injuries on the 49ers offensive line have on the outcome of the game? Because it’s a divisional game, and because the Niners have owned the Rams, it seems like taking the points is the correct play. We’re opting instead to get the extra 6 points with the Niners as the second leg of our teaser below.

BetCrushers Lean: San Francisco 49ers +3.5
Los Angeles Rams 23, San Francisco 49ers 20

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

We’re only posting one official play for documentation on Championship weekend and you can see it’s the teaser we mentioned above. The numbers mostly line up, as we expect a couple of close ballgames. They probably won’t be as close as what we saw in the amazing divisional round, but blowouts seem unlikely. If you’re looking for some other options, other wagers we considered are:
Kansas City Chiefs – Team Total Over 31.5
Cincinnati Bengals +7
San Francisco 49ers +3.5
San Francisco 49ers / Los Angeles Rams – Total Under 46