ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
New Orleans Saints -190
Atlanta Falcons +350
Carolina Panthers +550
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
For years the NFC South was the rotating division where last to first champions were crowned and winning in back-to-back seasons was unheard of. Before we get any further in our breakdown of the division we’ll go on record right now to state that the Saints should own this division, and most likely do so with relative ease. At BetCrushers we rarely like to place any bets that require laying hefty juice, but there are really only 2 scenarios that we can foresee that would cause the Saints not to finish the season on the top. (We’ll get to those in the Saints breakdown). This division has provided some really fun and high-scoring games in the past and with the veteran QBs and some questionable defenses this year should be no different. Let’s take a closer look at each team:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Record – 5-11
2018 Record Against the Spread – 7-7-2
It’s not unusual for talented quarterbacks entering the league to struggle early in their careers. The speed of the game and decision making can be difficult to adapt to as some of the game’s all-time greats needed time to get the hang of things. In the case of Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston it has been as much his “off-field” decision making that has hindered his growth as it has been the mistakes he’s made on the field. Everything that has happened thus far in his career brings us to what really could be a pivotal season in his career. The Bucs need to make a determination once and for all if Jameis is the guy that can lead the franchise in the future. We all know the skill set is fine, and at rare times Winston looks like he could be an MVP candidate. But more often than not we’ve seen poor mistakes, poor behavior and an overall lack of leadership. All reports from TB claim that the organization is behind him and he’s ready to have a break-out season, but actions always speak louder than words, err reports. While the offense is not spectacular, they are good enough to put points on the board. Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones can each carry the load if needed at running back but this offensive line is going to need to play much better than a year ago. Aside from the Colts, this team probably has the best 1-2 punch at the tight end position with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. We know Mike Evans will do his usual top-tier work at wide receiver but the unknown is Chris Godwin or anyone will be able to step up on the other side with the departures of Desean Jackson and Adam Humphries.
Although the team lost veteran leaders and perennial stars in Gerald McCoy and Kown Alexander on defense, this group should actually be improved from a year ago with an infusion of new players and some returning from injury. There are some big names upfront and the linebacking corp looks much improved with the additions of Deone Buchanon and Shaq Barrett along with the drafting of Devin White out of LSU. In a division where the ball often gets aired out, they’ll need to get good play out of a thin secondary if they want to compete. This team is a potpourri of mystery heading into this season, but what will new coach Bruce Arians be able to do with Winston and this offense? We’re treading cautiously here, but this team could surprise a lot of people if Jameis Winston can constantly play at a high level.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 12th (.508)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
It’s very tempting to see the Bucs as an 8+ win team this year as the defense looks deep on paper and the offense starts the year healthy. But you can’t ignore history when it comes to sports betting and we just can’t put enough faith into Jameis Winston and this team to know that they’ll perform to what they’re capable of. This team could easily win 9 games, but they could just as easily win 4.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
Mike Evans is about as steady as the come in terms of production and statistics at the wide receiver position. Even in games where he isn’t making a huge impact he still finds a way to end up with a decent statline. Winston often forces throws his direction which may not be good for the Bucs, but is good if you’re betting on Evans. We’ll be playing his over on yards for sure.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Jameis Winston (QB)
There’s only one sure thing on this roster and that’s the previously mentioned Mike Evans at WR. Both tight ends can fill in during a spot or a small salary need on daily fantasy, but don’t get too tempted to take the running backs or other receivers. The most interesting play here is actually Jameis Winston. There are enough starting fantasy QBs out there that you don’t have to rely on him, but if you’re playing daily fantasy and need a cheap QB, Winston can actually provide you with a lot of bang for the buck at the position.
Atlanta Falcons
2018 Record – 7-9
2018 Record Against the Spread – 5-11
Many people felt the Atlanta Falcons just underachieved a year ago. In actuality it’s fair to wonder just how good this team really is? We know that Matt Ryan is a good quarterback (maybe not the most clutch) and the weapons and speed are as good as anyone in the league. But did the Falcons give up to much to have the sizzle without building a good foundation in the trenches? Let’s make sure we are fair to the team and their coaching staff as we try to review what happened a year ago and look towards this season. This defense was absolutely decimated with key injuries early last year and never recovered. It’s hard to know what would have been and maybe equally as hard to predict what will happen this year but we’ll do our best. If you follow football we don’t need to get into much with their offense. This team did address some concerns on the offensive line through the draft and should be a little better this year. Their running game is strong and their playmakers at WR of Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley are as talented of a trio as you’ll find in the league. It would be nice to see Matt Ryan put the team on his back and “will” them to victory more but maybe that’s just not who he is as a player? Regardless, this team should score points and more than likely more points than they did in 2018.
Knowing what they have on offense, the key to this team’s season really rests on what they can do on the defensive side of the ball. They’ll start the year with a full defensive roster which is a step in the right direction. Bringing Adrian Clayborn back should bolster the depth on the D-Line and and help free up some others with the pass rush. Although it appears as though those things should help this defense it’s still debatable how good this unit can actually be. The Atlanta Falcons are not a team I’d want to play in one matchup as they can light up anyone when they’re clicking, but when we’re looking at an entire season it’s hard to imagine them really doing consistent damage across the board. They seem to be the typical team with some star power that leads to them being overvalued as a group. If you need evidence of that, just look at their record ATS last year at 4-10 which was worst in the league. No matter how poorly no one every really adjusted to make them a lower tier team.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 7th (.518)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
This team managed to put 7 wins on the board a year ago despite being decimated by injuries on defense. As a veteran team with playmakers and continuity that starts the season healthy and at least attempted to plug some holes it’s feasible this team could win a couple more games this year.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over Totals / Against the Spread / Prop Bets
There are a lot of possible plays out there when you look at this Falcons team. Even with expected high point totals they still go over at nearly 62%. If they’re overvalued again this year it’s possible that betting against them could be successful once again. And if you like the prop bets, taking Julio Jones in catches or yards is one of the safest wagers you can make even with the high numbers.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Calvin Ridley (WR), Austin Hooper (TE)
Julio Jones has been one of the most consistent fantasy players over the past handful of years even if he had a long TD drought. But this year we’re looking at Calvin Ridley on the opposite side. Ridley had two huge games last year but was otherwise inconsistent and quiet. It’s just a hunch, but it sure seems like he could be a solid contributor week in and week out. Austin Hooper has the occasional dud on the stat sheet but if you don’t land one of the elite tight ends or need daily bargain at the position he saw nearly 6 targets per game last year.
Carolina Panthers
2018 Record – 7-9
2018 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
In the world of sports handicapping studying trends can often be very helpful in trying to predict the future. This statistic is probably not one you need to put too much stock into, but the Carolina Panthers have been markedly better in odd numbered years than they have been in even numbered years. It’s most likely just a coincidence, but it’s hard to ignore the trend over the past six seasons. In the odd numbered seasons since 2012 they’ve won at least 11 games. Looking at the 2019 team it’s not impossible that this trend could continue, but there are a lot of “ifs” that would need to happen for that to take place. The biggest “if” for this year revolves around the health of quarterback Cam Newton. His shoulder injury a year ago limited his effectiveness both throwing and running prior to the team eventually shutting him down at the end of the season. Reports are mixed but the organization claims he will be ready to go at the beginning of the season. If he can regain the ability to use his ridiculous physical talents and maybe even show some maturity it’s very possible that this team could get back on track. Christian McCaffrey may be the most underappreciated talent in the entire league at the running back position. Watching him play is like watching a throwback talent who possesses all of the tools to succeed in any situation. The wide receiver crew is lacking that major threat that causes defense matchup problems, but they do have some average contributors and D.J. Moore showed some potential flash last season. A big key to this year’s offense will be old reliable veteren tight end Greg Olsen. G-Reg spent most of last season on the sideline with foot and ankle injuries and we’ve got to wonder at his age how well he’ll be able to bounce back from that rehab. If he can provide Newton with his security blanket and soften up the middle of the field it’s not unreasonable to see this team scoring a lot of points.
Defensively this team under-performed a year ago but also battled through some changes and injuries. Ron Rivera wanted to get tougher and add some veteran presence which he did by bringing in DT Gerald McCoy and Bruce Irvin at the linebacker position. It’s a gamble adding players that have 10+ years of experience, but these are the type of players that Rivera thinks can make the group stronger as a whole. Defensive leader Luke Kuechly should have the front seven playing better as McCoy could really help free him up, but the secondary is a bit of a concern. If this defense can come together as a group they should be improved from a year ago. If you re-read this summary, you’ll notice all of the big “ifs” we referenced a the beginning. If things come together, this team could keep their unique trend together of an odd-seasoned winner, but that is absolutely no lock at all.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 16th (.502)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
Will it be a 4 win season or an 11 win season this year in Carolina? There are way too many variables to know for sure at this point in time. This may be a team you want to avoid trying to figure out until the season has had a little time to play itself out. However, if Cam Newton comes out of the gate strong, that might make things different.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
It must be something about this division, but Christian McCaffrey is about as sure thing as there is at the running back position week in and week out.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Christian McCaffrey (RB), D.J. Moore (WR)
If you have the number one pick in your fantasy draft you may strongly want to consider taking McCaffrey. Based on the division he plays in and the offense the team runs it’s not crazy to say he’s the best player available. In any kind of PPR league he provides a lot of value due to his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. D.J. Moore picked up some steam mid-season in 2018 and this year is set to be the featured target on the outside. He could be in line for a 1,000 yard season and find the end zone with some frequency in 2019.
New Orleans Saints
2018 Record – 13-3
2018 Record Against the Spread – 10-6
The BetCrushers were stung hard by the missed call in the NFC Championship game as it caused a domino effect of L’s that shouldn’t have happened. If we felt stung by that, try to imagine what head coach Sean Payton and his team must have been feeling after that horrendous miss by the NFL. Normally it would be fair to ask if a team would have a tough time bouncing back mentally from that debacle, but it’s hard to picture Drew Brees and Sean Payton allowing a meltdown to happen with this team. The Saints had an eventful offseason that saw some key players leave, most noticeably center Max Unger and running back Mark Ingram, but also some nice additions join the team. Kudos to their front office for replacing Ingram with Latavius Murray and Unger with rookie Erik McCoy. There is one signing in particular that could really elevate this team in bringing TE Jared Cook over from the Raiders coming off of his best season as a pro. Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Cook: Good luck trying to match up with that if you’re a defensive coordinator. Realistically there is only one thing that can keep this offense from being one of the most explosive groups in the league and it might be the last thing you’d expect. Quarterback Drew Brees will start this season at age 40. Brees hasn’t given us any indication that he’s going to slow down, but at some point it’s going to happen. Will 2019 be the year or can he keep up his hall of fame play for at least one more season?
The most pleasant surprise Saint’s fans saw a year ago was the improvement of a defense that had consistently been one of the worst in the league. The Saints defense may not strike fear in their opponents but they are no longer a liability getting in the way of them winning football games. Sheldon Rankins and Cameron Heyward caused havoc on the line a year ago and their secondary led by Marshon Lattimore can match up well with the high-flying wide receiving corps in their division and conference. If you believe in Karma then you’ve got to believe that the Saints should have some good things happening to them in 2019. The best thing that could happen is their leader at QB can fight off the inevitable decline in play that happens to even the best for at least one more year. If he can, it won’t be a shock to see this team playing in the NFC Championship game again.
2019 Strength of Schedule – 22nd (.488)
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-5
The Saints could very feasibly finish this year at 13-3 again this year if Brees is healthy and effective. The only thing keeping us from banking on that is history tells us is nearly impossible to duplicate 13-3 type seasons year after year, since the inception of the free agency era. We booked them over and think 11-5 should be very do-able.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals / Over
For the last decade the Saints have repeatedly beat the over total despite oddsmakers trying to adjust the totals up. There’s almost no reason (see Drew Brees) to believe that trend won’t continue again this year. One important note, this offense not surprisingly puts points up much quicker in the friendly confines of their dome than on grass fields.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Drew Brees (QB), Ted Ginn (WR)
Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are season winning fantasy players and PPR monsters and Jared Cook has a high ceiling on this team. But it’s the next tier of value that could really help separate your team when it comes to the Saints. If Brees isn’t scooped up early from his fame, you may be able to get him later in your draft and he should still be steady and reliable. The potential later round home-run on this group is WR Ted Ginn. Ginn still has the speed he had coming into the league and is going to be the beneficiary of a lot of single and soft coverage in this offense.
