A close call with the Marlins Friday evening unfortunately did not pay the bills. Eury did his part to push the first half wager, though the full game position keeps the featured handicap L train rolling down the tracks. It’s borderline comical what kind of garbage I’m tossing out there a few days a week. After a choppy high-volume weekend, the beat rolls on with a new week and a quick solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-13-2023. BOL this week!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (STL -110, 8.5)
A Cobb (R) vs. J Flaherty (R)
I’m only sitting on two positions so far this morning, one of which centers on Busch Stadium and is arguably the most interesting handicap of the two. When it comes to the starting pitchers of this contest, Alex Cobb and Jack Flaherty could be said to have crossed trajectories about a month ago. Cobb has been inconsistent in terms of recent results while Flaherty has posted five straight sub-4.00 FIP outings with four zero- or one-run starts.
That’s a far cry from Jack’s start to the season: eight straight starts of 3.94 FIP or greater with five of them topping the 5.00-FIP mark. Causes ranged from too many walks to yielding a homer in six straight games. The walk issue still pops up from time to time, but are the Giants the club to take advantage of Flaherty’s periodic issues? Typically, not so much. Lately, however, San Francisco has been walking at a rate near the top of the list (L7 days: 11.3%, L14 days: 10.8%). That’s a lesser consideration due to Jack’s inconsistency in this sense.
Are the Bats Up For the Challenge?
San Francisco’s distinction of holding a 13% park-adjusted offensive premium on the road is a consideration. Maybe less so than their general inclination against right-handed pitching. For that success, look to platoon specialists Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski alongside JD Davis and Thairo Estrada. Now I would be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned that Estrada may be due for a rest tonight but the rest of this crew should be largely intact. The fact that Gabe Kapler’s lineup is chocked full of lefties plays into Jack Flaherty’s weakness too.
Is his 1.5-run excess to FIP against lefty hitters enough of a weak spot for the Giants to pounce on? The 1-run xFIP handedness gap doesn’t disagree. With a price of 4 runs and 27 outs to back the Giants’ team total, I bit on the lure and laid -115 with a probable range of 4.1-4.7. Flaherty’s form could nullify this weakness. Then again, San Francisco’s offensive form and capability can gum up the works for Jack’s 2023 rebound. With a middling Cardinals bullpen, a floor of 4 runs is worth taking a crack at.
WAGER: Giants Team Total Over 4 -115 (0.75u)
It’s a running joke in my house that any bet I write up on our site is doomed to die a painful death. Let’s see if the Gigantes can break the trend and get us a featured handicap win. Long work day will keep the breakdown on the shelf tomorrow but I’ll be back Thursday morning. BOL!
Heading for Home
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