ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Minnesota Vikings +165
Green Bay Packers +185
Chicago Bears +390
Detroit Lions +600
Doing some reading of NFL writers there is no consensus pick on who will win this division in 2020. Of all of the divisions in the league this one may be the most truly up for grabs. The Lions are listed at the bottom mostly due to reputation and at +600 they wouldn’t seem to be competitive. Not so fast though, they have every bit as much of a shot at taking this one as the Vikings, Packers and Bears do in our estimation. Let’s dive a little deeper into the NFC North.
Chicago Bears
2019 Record – 8-8
2019 Record Against the Spread – 4-12
The 2019 season could be described as disappointing for the Chicago Bears and in particular quarterback Mitchell Trubisky who wasn’t able to make the leap the franchise hoped he would. While a .500 record is nothing to be embarrassed about, this team clearly was expected to do more coming off of their defensive beatdown of teams in 2018. Can the Bears bounce back and be a playoff team or was the 8-8 record more indicative of what this team really is? Remember, they are who we thought they were?
Veteran quarterback and former Super Bowl hero Nick Foles was brought in at the quarterback position which only muddies the water for the future of Trubisky. We’re not shy about sharing our opinions and playing Monday Morning Quarterback, however in this case, who really knows which guy gives them a better chance to win? Outside of the amazing Super Bowl run and one error free season in Philly, Foles has never really been a guy to carry a team. Trubisky has looked good in camp, except, looking good in practice has never been the issue with him. For now, Trubisky looks like the starter and you have to wonder if it will help him, or hurt him, looking over his shoulders at Foles. The rest of the Bears offense fits into that mold of “average”. Their offensive line is ok, but not going to dominate games, and in fact has underachieved in reality. David Montgomery looks like he can be a capable runner in this league, yet no one will mistake him for Walter Payton. Allen Robinson II is a bright spot as he ranks quite well compared to number one receivers in the league despite not getting the same recognition. The team is kicking the tires on Jimmy Graham at TE hoping to get a season or so out of him. Graham has had some great seasons in the league, but don’t hold your breath on him being a playmaker.
We all understand that the strength of this team is their vaunted and productive defense. This year should be no exception as they have the top linebacking group in the NFL. Eddie Jackson is a huge talent in the secondary and that group can hold up relatively well. The concern has to be on the defensive line as their big NT Eddie Goldman opted out of the season. For as good as their defense was last year they did struggle at times stopping the run. Goldman’s absence could hurt them if the linebackers can’t stay clean and use their athleticism to make plays. The thesis of this team breaks down something like this: The defense will keep them competitive, and the offense needs to do enough to not put them in a bad spot. If they can do that they might be able to get back to the playoffs. More than likely though, the NFC is going to be too crowded for this team to make a serious run.
2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 13th (.509)
Team Win Total Odds – 8 Wins (over -110, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
It’s always tough to go against a really good defense like the one they have in Chicago. When you really look at their schedule, unless their offense can make a huge leap though it’s hard to figure out where a lot of the wins will come from.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
In 2018 the Bears crushed expectations and were at the top against the spread. In 2019 with high expectations, they reversed and finished last in the league ATS. Even though this team may not win a bunch of games, they could cover a lot of spreads if they’re catching points.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Allen Robinson II (WR), Bears (DST)
Allen Robinson is not a secret to fantasy players by any stretch of the imagination. He is undervalued overall when you look at his production though, even with less than amazing quarterback play. No secret in grabbing their defense most weeks as well or as a solid seasonal play.
Detroit Lions
2019 Record – 3-12-1
2019 Record Against the Spread – 6-10
Are we crazy for suggesting the Lions have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC North? Possibly. We’re sticking by that as a serious possibility though. This team lost some close games early last year and seemed to be headed in the right direction before losing QB Matthew Stafford to a season ending injury. The offseason brought some new talent on the defensive side of the ball which is still the potential trouble spot for this team. Can the Lions get that defense playing well enough to match their offense?
Matthew Stafford was quietly putting up some huge numbers before his season ended prematurely. He was able to overcome some very average play by the offensive line and may need to do that again this year although the team is excited about landing Halapoulivaati Vaitai to anchor the right tackle position. If this line can improve, that could not only help Stafford but also enticing draft pick D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the running game. T.J. Hockenson showed some flash as a rookie before his season also ended and he could be poised to be a big-time player in this offense. One of the reasons is he’ll see some soft coverage because the Lions march out two really good wideouts and veteran Danny Amendola in the slot. If you haven’t figure it out yet, we’re pretty high on the over totals with this offense. Barring injuries this unit should be able to put up points every week.
So that brings us back to this defense which is what should be head coach Matt Patricia’s specialty. He is banking on some of his old familiar stalwarts like Jaime Collins, Sr. and Danny Shelton to help boost the front seven. The team lost Pro Bowler Darius Slay and promptly replaced him with the third pick in the draft Jeff Okudah hoping to not skip a beat there. On paper this group looks to be at least slightly improved, the real question is how much?
2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 5th (.525)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-8
There can always be some skepticism with teams that haven’t mastered the “winning culture” and that is absolutely the case here. Eight wins is not unreasonable at all and again, that number could even climb. Pencil us in for an improved record and the over of their season win total.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over, Against the Spread
This is really predicated on how the Lion’s offensive line performs but in a division that can sometimes be slugging it out in low-scoring games we think there are a lot of points being scored and allowed by this group, particularly on the road. If you enjoy betting the over, this is one team you’ll want to take a shot with. As far as ATS, this team won’t get much respect from the books due to their history so there could be a lot of value there.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Kenny Golladay (WR), T.J. Hockenson (TE)
Kenny Golladay is becoming a monster at the wide receiver position and could be a top three player at his position. The only concern is targets with Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola taking some opportunities away. After the big two or three tight ends, there is a next tier and T.J. Hockenson should slide into that mold.
Green Bay Packers
2019 Record – 13-3
2019 Record Against the Spread – 10-6
A team that exceeded expectations for most people outside of the state of Wisconsin in 2019 was the Green Bay Packers. There were some question marks coming in outside of the quarterback position and the team answered the call in most instances en route to an impressive 13-3 record. The team enters this year somewhat surprisingly not as the consensus pick to win the division. A rather quiet and even somewhat disappointing offseason may contribute to that, or maybe this team just overachieved?
The elephant in the room in Green Bay was the team’s decision to draft Jordan Love with their first round pick rather than getting Aaron Rodgers some help opposite Davante Adams at wide receiver. As of this article, Rodgers claims he’s ready to go and hungry to succeed. Rodgers is not only one of the top QB’s of the era, he’s also a consummate pro so there won’t be any issues with him at all. The running game is strong so no concerns there either. The problem offensively remains can anyone besides Davante Adams make plays in the passing game on this team?
The acquisitions of of Z’Darius Smith and Preston Smith paid big dividends for this defense and Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage are a tough pair of safeties. Last year if there was a weakness defensively it’s that this team often struggled stopping the run. There are a couple of new faces in the interior of the defense, yet the question will still remain if they are stout enough against big and speedy runners? We saw what this team did to opponents when they got them into obvious passing situations. Hopefully for Packer fans they can actually get teams into those situations often enough.
2020 Strength of Schedule – 15th (.504)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
Homefield advantage means a lot to this team and the uncertainty with fans and attendance could have an impact on them. It’s hard to picture a team with Aaron Rodgers being around the .500 mark or having a slide of 4 games from last year with most of the team still together. The Pack burned us a bit last year, let’s see if they can outperform our expectations again?
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Packers are one of the most publicly wagered teams in the league every year. With Rodgers playing QB novice fans are quick to lay points with them even on the road. Going back since 2015 this team has been one of the worst in the league against the spread. Even if they’re able to win more games this year it’s likely they’ll continue to struggle covering the spread.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Aaron Jones (RB), Davante Adams (WR)
If the Packers use him correctly and stick to the running game you can expect to see some big numbers from Aaron Jones. He has the ability to grind yards out every week and should see the end zone with a fair amount of regularity. Davante Adams is generally not considered as skilled as the OBJs, Julios, and Deandres of the league but he is every bit as productive and sometimes more. Rodgers clear number one target, don’t be afraid to use an early selection on him.
Minnesota Vikings
2019 Record – 10-6
2019 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
If any team is created in the mold of their head coach it truly has to be the Minnesota Vikings. Mike Zimmer has built this team around a strong running game and versatile defense. Pound for pound this team is as capable at every position on the field as any team in the league. They should be right back in contention and as a slight favorite to win the division there is a lot to like with this bunch.
At times the Minnesota Vikings offense looked really good in 2019. At other times they seemed to be in repeated 4th down punt mode. Gary Kubiak will take over as offensive coordinator and could give them a little boost as he knows how to use powerful running backs. The big loss offensively was Stefon Diggs who disgruntled his way out of town. The team drafted Justin Jefferson and brought in Tajae Sharpe to try to replace the production. If Adam Thielen can stay on the field this year they should be fine, however if he has another injury plagued season that could really hamper this offense. The offensive line played pretty well in the running game, but they could really help Kirk Cousins out by doing a better job with pass protection.
The story is very similar with the defense in purple as they flat out looked dominant at times, yet very pedestrian and vulnerable at others. The team won’t have familiar stars Everson Griffin or Linval Joseph back, but added their own disgruntled star bringing in Yannick Ngakoue who could actually give them a boost. Playing on the opposite side of the wrecking ball of athleticism that is Danielle Hunter should make it really tough for teams to account for blocking them. Perhaps the most important piece to the defensive puzzle is the talented and so far underachieving cornerback Mike Hughes. The safeties will be good as usual and need to be able to play free rather than worrying about the corners getting beat deep. It feels safe to say that this team is going to have a very similar record as they had one season ago.
2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 10th (.516)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
We pegged this team at 10-6 in 2019 and we’re going to go off the basis that they are a similar team that will have similar results. As we mentioned with the Packers, this team also relies heavily on homefield advantage so we’ll see if there is a COVID impact to how they perform.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
If you were studious enough to figure out the formula you know that Kirk Cousins played very well against sub .500 competition and very poorly against over .500 competition.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Kirk Cousins (QB), Dalvin Cook (RB)
After all the Cousins analysis you might wonder why we’d have Cousins listed as a QB to watch. As is the case with the previously mentioned prop bets playing Cousins in certain matchups can actually really help you. With his injury history you’re playing with some fire taking Dalvin Cook in a league setting, however he is poised to have a fantastic season if he can steer clear of the injury report.
