All I can say about yesterday’s handicap is that I am thanking my lucky stars for Josh Naylor being in the lineup. Not that he made a huge impact in the Guardians’ blowout victory as much as he was my trigger point to play the over. More importantly, Naylor’s availability kept me off of the Royals side. But that was yesterday and Sunday is here now. So let’s wrap up the weekend with another AL Central Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-10-2022. BOL!
DETROIT TIGERS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-190)
D. Hutchison (R) vs. M. Kopech (R)
Might today be another example of me being off-phase with these two clubs? Chicago’s failure to push across a third run through 5 innings in Friday evening’s affair cost me. Then I lay off yesterday and they explode at the plate. So does my involvement in the series finale secure a victory for someone betting opposite me? Maybe. The main point working against my wager is that both lineups are going against their biases as lefty-hitting machines. Well, one club is more machine-like than the other. But there’s no denying that each team is in a positive hitting cycle – even if they are on the lumpy side.
wRC+ by Period, DET/CHW
| DET | CHW | |
|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 103 | 125 |
| L14 Days | 103 | 107 |
| Season | 78 | 98 |
| vs. RHP | 71 | 91 |
Playing the “momentum” game can often lead to disappointment, especially when both clubs are currently producing at a level in excess of 25% of their season-long marks. Yet each has performed well above expectation this past week while facing just one left-handed starter. So this short-run pop has come against what we should agree to be their weaknesses. Plus there are no issues with weather putting the clamps on run production in Chicago – expect a slight breeze in but sunny with temps around 80 degrees.
There is something to be said about Chicago having their full complement of talented hitters. Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn being in the mix is beneficial to the poorly-managed South Siders – even with my doubts that all three will be in this afternoon’s starting lineup. Their involvement has been a big part of the Sox’ recent uptick. As for the lowly Tigers, it’s been the lesser-known players like catcher Eric Haase and infielder Kody Clemens who have fueled a good proportion of their fire. The trouble with this is not knowing if either will find their names on the lineup card today. Plus you have that pesky little issue of their unexpected sparks eventually dying a sudden death.
Leaving the Door Open
To me, the offensive upside is created mainly by today’s starting pitchers. Detroit’s Drew Hutchison has the type of FIP/xFIP discrepancy that begs hitters to do more against him than they have in my opinion. The 31-year-old’s promising young career in Toronto has since taken a tough turn as 5.00+ xFIP has been his baseline for a few years now. His season-long 4.33 FIP/5.37 xFIP – mainly as a reliever – is reflected almost identically in his three starts: 4.35 FIP/5.36 xFIP. Despite yielding only 6 runs in those starts, the hammer has yet to fall on his ugly 1.19 K/BB ratio (14.6% K, 12.3% BB). Drew simply does not have swing-and-miss stuff and the White Sox are a talented hitting team that doesn’t necessarily rely on power to plate multiple runs.
But wait, there’s more! Since tweaking his ankle against the Rangers on June 12th, Michael Kopech has been raked over the coals for 16 runs in 21.0 innings. Granted, these recent starts have come against the likes of the Astros, Twins, and the feisty Orioles – not the Tigers. Whether his 7.53 FIP/5.47 xFIP carries forward this afternoon against an iffy Tigers lineup is the burning question. Kopech’s season has taken a sudden turn for the worse since that minor ankle injury and may be responsible for much of what goes behind his “decline” since breaking out in 2021. The general expectation is for the 26-year-old to snap out of it…but is today the day? Injuries heal and bounce backs are a thing, after all.
Michael Kopech 2021 vs. 2022
| K% | BB% | SwStk% | BABIP | HH% | GB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 36.1% | 8.4% | 14.1% | .304 | 33.8% | 37.7% |
| 2022 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 9.9% | .207 | 40.4% | 31.3% |
WAGER: First 5 Inning Total Over 5 +100 (or Over 4.5 -125)
The full game Over 9 runs is less appealing than the first 5 inning approach as a function of isolating the starting pitchers. Both bullpens have been fairly good and provide less scoring potential than the starters (Last 14 days: DET 3.23 FIP, CHW 3.25 FIP). Neither team had to dip into their back end relievers yesterday so I expect both unit to be effective in innings 5 or 6 through 9 barring an early blowout of some fashion – which would be just fine by me. Enjoy your Sunday and have a great week ahead…
Heading for Home
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