The BetCrushers Team’s prodigal son returns to writing with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-9-2022. Overseas vacation is over. Anniversary is in the books. And despite the day job having a firm stranglehold around my neck, I’m back to what I truly enjoy: breaking down some sweet MLB action. As our good friend Big Tasty knows, the MLB handicapping grind is front and center on our minds – and we’re still hammering away in the background to keep on the right side of the ledger. That said, we appreciate you checking in. Now let’s dive on in…
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (+110)
T. McKenzie (R) vs. J. Heasley (R)
This battle of AL Central foes is anything but a sexy matchup. Especially with the well-documented recent demise of Cleveland’s offense that has sent them into a 5-game losing tailspin. Last night’s choke job by the bullpen cemented the continuation of that losing streak and put the Guardians below .500 for the first time in a while. Could they get a little relief this afternoon with the Royals’ 25-year-old righty Jonathan Heasley getting the start at Kauffman Stadium?
Young Arms Take Center Stage
Lanky right-hander Triston McKenzie has come a long way in my book. It’s fair to throw his 2020 rookie campaign out the window and focus on last year’s 120.0 IP in comparison to this season’s 87.1 IP. McKenzie is by no means a ground ball guy – around 30% across the 2021-2022 seasons – and gets hit pretty hard. Hell, his hard hit mark has risen from 36.0% as a rookie to 41.9% last year to 45.0% in 2022. Are the Royals the squad to capitalize? Don’t neglect the fact that Triston has gradually changed his approach to the art of pitching. Part of this can be attributed to dropping the changeup and getting a pretty damn good curve in the mix a bit more.
Triston McKenzie K & BB Percentage Changes, 2021-2022
| K% | BB% | K/BB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27.5% | 11.7% | 2.34 |
| 2022 | 23.2% | 6.4% | 3.64 |
McKenzie’s improved K/BB ratio is the primary component of a quarter-run improvement in terms of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the like. It’s part of about a half-run edge over this afternoon’s counterpart Jonathan Heasley. KC’s young righty continues to fight the killer combination of walks (11.6%) and home runs (1.41 HR/9) that has led to a sketchy 5.30 FIP/5.25 xFIP and 5.23 SIERA. I’m still waiting for DNA confirmation that it truly was Heasley who shut out the Orioles over 7 innings a month ago, yielding just 1 hit with 7 strikeouts and 0 walks. Aside from that start, it has been struggle city for the kid. So what gives in Kansas City this afternoon: Jonathan’s rough season or the Guardians’ slumping bats?
Failure To Launch
Much of Cleveland’s offensive woes center on Jose Ramirez’ fall from the upper echelon and Josh Naylor’s back issues. As the Guardians’ MVP, Jose has scuffled mightily since June 27th with up a paltry 55 wRC+ since getting back into divisional play last month. Don’t worry, the dude is far from kicked. But if you want to know just how important this dude is to the entire team’s offense just look at the numbers:
CLE / Jose Ramirez Offensive Production; Before & After 6/27
| Before 6/27/22 | Since 6/27/2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Ramirez AVG | .303 | .182 |
| CLE AVG | .250 | .202 |
| Ramirez OBP | .388 | .250 |
| CLE OBP | .311 | .284 |
| Ramirez SLG | .618 | .295 |
| CLE SLG | .389 | .309 |
| Ramirez wRC+ | 178 | 55 |
| CLE wRC+ | 99 | 72 |
To add insult to injury, Cleveland slugger Josh Naylor’s back has kept him out of the starting lineup the last 4 games. He did pinch hit last night and went 1-1 with a single. In 55 games this season, the first baseman/DH has been quite potent with a .279/.335/.513 slash line and 137 wRC+, knocking in 43 runs. Can you bank on a Ramirez comeback? At some point, absolutely. Today, maybe…maybe not. One can argue that these two cogs are the primary reason for Cleveland’s strong split differential against right-handed pitching – approximately 30% stronger – this season. Heasley is a de facto litmus test for Ramirez while Naylor’s availability clearly improves the Guardians’ chances to wipe the goose egg off the scoreboard early.
Adding contrast is a Royals lineup that is currently in a cycle opposite that of their AL Central foe. Their season-long numbers – both overall and vs. RHP – are right around my preseason expectations. However, recent form says otherwise:
KCR Offense, by Period
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | .263 | .350 | .444 | 126 |
| L14 Days | .257 | .329 | .422 | 115 |
| Season | .241 | .307 | .378 | 94 |
| vs. RHP | .240 | .304 | .371 | 91 |
Both offenses pose a major handicapping challenge in balancing their actual composition with current form. And considering that they are headed in opposite directions, how do you handicap expectation this afternoon? In my opinion, Kansas City earns about a 4-5% productivity edge given the circumstances. With Naylor in the lineup, my focus turns to the game total over as these bullpens continue to battle their own demons. Without him, I look to the Royals full game side as a slight dog.
OPTION 1: Over 9 Runs
OPTION 2: Royals +110
Despite a decent breeze expected to come in straight from center field, temps are good enough to tack on about a 5% bias towards run creation over neutral conditions. 8.5 without too much juice sounds much better than 9 considering Cleveland’s documented recent struggles at the plate. I’ll keep my eyes on this total through the morning as well as Josh Naylor’s status. As for the side, the Heasley disadvantage essentially gets scrubbed by the Guardians bullpen’s rough patch as evidenced by last night’s collapse. If this line continues to inch towards a better price on the Royals and Naylor is out of the starting lineup that wager becomes much more appetizing. BOL!
Heading for Home
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