So the White Sox versus lefties thing still has an edge, eh? JA Happ came in as the potential stopper against Chicago’s finely-tuned offense until Tim Anderson slapped a single to lead off the game. A ChiSox rout was good enough to keep the good vibes going for The BetCrushers – rolling right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-14-2021. By the way, yesterday’s morning off from the Morning Breakdown was spent preparing for another great episode of Playing the Odds NASCAR Style (shameless plug for our good friend Paul).
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies (-110)
There’s something about my Cincinnati Reds that frustrates me and many other fans – I believe it’s called inconsistency. (What the hell happened to Luis Castillo?) The 17-18 team has stumbled quite a bit away from home, including last night’s 13-8 drubbing by the Rockies. But there may be some bright spots in the Reds’ sub-.500 road record. After being swept in St. Louis in late April, they took two of three from the Dodgers, split a pair in Cleveland, and won a series in Pittsburgh.
Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Rockies offense overwhelmed Cincinnati with 15 hits Thursday night – 10 of which were given up by starter Luis Castillo. This offensive explosion helped the Rockies break out of a little slump in which they slashed just .207/.283/.272 during the previous seven-day period. Cincy, on the other hand, had their production stifled (previous seven days .263/.314/.408) by 7 excellent innings out of Chi Chi – which was a huge lift for Colorado considering that their bullpen proceeded to give up 8 runs in the inning after Rodriguez was pulled.
And that bullpen opens the door for opponents on a regular basis. Colorado’s relief unit is about one run of FIP worse than Cincinnati’s this season, with each bullpen trending in opposite directions in the last two weeks. The Reds relievers have been quite respectable in the prior 14 days (3.33 FIP), although they gave up another 5 runs last night after Castillo was run out of the game. However, manager David Bell opted to empty the depths of his pen and reserved his four-closer agglomerate for the weekend. That gives the Reds a late-game advantage in a close one tonight.
W. Miley (L) vs. G. Marquez (R)
Is Wade Miley up to the task of another sharp outing after no-hitting Cleveland last week? The 34-year-old lefty has stumbled only once this season – to that same Indians team a few weeks prior, giving up 4 runs on a pair of home runs. Miley has lived up to his reputation as a contact pitcher by generating 58.8% ground balls with just 29.4% hard contact this season. The .162 BABIP says that opposing batters have been hitting the ball where his defense can take care of it, though Coors Field has a ton of real estate. Cincinnati has provided beneficial defense to date and will need to do so again tonight if they want to get the W with Wade on the bump. But the other shoe will drop eventually and batted balls will drop in for hits.
Miley’s killer pitch continues to be his cutter, which must be on tonight against a lineup that has generally been ineffective against good ones. Outside of Trevor Story and Ryan McMahon, Rockies hitters like Charlie Blackmon and Garrett Hampson have not fared well against much other than fastballs. German Marquez has also upped his ground ball rate this season in conjunction with keeping home runs to a minimum. Despite a troubling walk issue – he yielded 2+ walks in each of his eight starts – the guy has a solid 9.15 K/9 rate.
Cincinnati lines up fairly well against German’s fastball-heavy repertoire. In addition to a middling curveball, Marquez boasts a very good slider that could be trouble for the Reds. Only Nick Castellanos and Tyler Naquin have had much success against sliders, though the team in general loves hitting fastballs. I have both of tonight’s starters in the low-4.00s FIP range and can see both of them pitching into the 6th inning with 2-3 runs. If that plays out, Cincinnati’s better bullpen has the ability to give its offense the chance to take the lead and get the win.
WAGER: Reds -104 (good to -112)
So am I prepared to be disappointed by the Reds tonight? Absolutely. This team has been hit-or-miss all season and appears to be without leadoff man Nick Senzel after colliding with the wall on Thursday. Nick has been on a nice roll at the plate and will likely be replaced by Shogo Akiyama in center field. Mike Moustakas is allegedly good to go after exiting yesterday as well, which is important considering how productive he was in Pittsburgh. And Miley finds himself in one of those “letdown spots” in situational handicappers’ eyes. However, I think he will go toe-to-toe with Marquez and give Cincy around a 55% chance to emerge victorious.
Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners (+115)
Seattle welcomed a pair of its highly-anticipated prospects to the big leagues last night. 24-year-old Logan Gilbert made his MLB debut by giving up 4 runs in 4 innings via a couple long balls. 21-year-old lefty outfielder Jarred Kelenic also made his debut, going 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Zach Plesac’s 8 dominant innings left the game in Cleveland’s good hands – their bullpen, which is a unit that I have no problem avoiding at all costs.
A. Civale (R) vs. C. Flexen (R)
Tonight’s rematch pits the five-pitch Aaron Civale against KBO export Chris Flexen. Flexen took his lumps against the Rangers, Angels, and Twins this season while sprinkling in a few solid outings against Boston’s and Houston’s prolific offenses. His 41.8% hard hit rate and inflated .346 BABIP could spell trouble if Cleveland’s bats are in the right mood. After all, both lineups were scuffling in the seven days leading up to last night’s opener (Indians .179/.237/.301; Mariners .200/.274/.364).
So is Flexen’s sharp slider up for the challenge tonight? The 26-year-old lefty and his four-pitch arsenal must be careful with the hot-hitting Jose Ramirez and Cesar Hernandez. But DH Franmil Reyes is the man that he truly needs to work around, as signaled by his bomb last night. Both Reyes and Hernandez are deadly against sliders, which has been Flexen’s key out pitch this season. Despite Chris’ variance this season – which I typically tend to avoid – I put him on equal footing with his counterpart in the mid-4.00s FIP range. Will his “unfortunate” BABIP begin to ease up against this Cleveland offense?
Plus Aaron Civale adds more variance to the equation tonight. He operates on the other side of the BABIP relationship, allowing just a .227 figure to date. Civale’s new splitter has a lot to do with his improved 51.9% ground ball rate too. However, he has given up a higher 39.1% hard hit rate while slipping to a 2.36 K/BB ratio so there are some fundamentals that Seattle can take advantage of. But the splitter pairs well with a nasty cutter and solid fastball that can keep opponents guessing when his repertoire is on point. That pitch mix needs to be working because the Mariners are fairly good at hitting cutters and fastballs. Well, at least their key hitters Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis, and Kyle Seager have been. Again, variance could be the name of tonight’s game.
WAGER: Mariners First 5 Innings +101 (good to -110)
This is anything but a sexy matchup in the Pacific Northwest. And I really don’t want anything to do with Seattle’s bullpen as a whole. Kendall Graveman has been excellent in the closer role but is accompanied by an unreliable supporting cast. Cleveland’s bullpen is so tough to crack – so if Seattle has any advantage in this game, it lies with the Flexen-Civale pairing. And I still believe that the Mariners have the better-performing lineup, even if both have been fairly anemic in the big picture. It’s not pretty, though I tag Seattle with a 58% chance to prevail in the first five innings tonight. Give me the short home dog!
Around the Horn
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