The 2026 season is taking shape after over two weeks of action. Some teams have habitually stymied our betting (Mets) while others are bringing home the bacon more often (Rays). A healthy Monday slate of ten games offers some interesting matchups and a few bet-worthy spots as we dig into the markets this morning. Before we get too far into solidifying these positions, it’s time to look at three of the more intriguing games in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-13-2026. Arizona/Baltimore would be on the docket as well if Trevor Rogers was confirmed as of publishing. Regardless, BOL today and this week!
HOUSTON ASTROS @ SEATTLE MARINERS (SEA -174, 7.5)
M Burrows (R) vs. G Kirby (R)
Our expectation for Seattle’s edge across all four key areas is weighed down by their slow start at the plate. Right-handed starting pitcher George Kirby has performed generally on par with his profile. However, slightly inflated walk and home run rates have not come with the higher strikeout rate he delivered in 2025. While Kirby’s 3.60 ERA is right where you want it to be, the 4.39 FIP speaks to his weaker 3.20 K/BB ratio. He has skated by with a .204 BABIP that a good-hitting Astros lineup has the ability to exploit.
Mike Burrows’ first season in Houston is off to a slow start (5.63 ERA, 5.02 FIP/4.38 xFIP). To be fair, the right-hander’s last outing in Colorado did not help his numbers. A mixed bag prior to that start yielded 5 runs against the Angels and 2 against Boston; both of which came at home. We still have him modeled as a low-4.00s pitcher and gets the benefit of the doubt despite a .396 BABIP. It’s an opposite scenario of Kirby’s to a degree. So which starter’s BABIP regresses to the mean this afternoon? If you can answer that with certainty you’re probably printing cash from the books.
Running At (Nearly) Full Strength
Although I’m still getting the trending offensive production plot layout tweaked for early-season action, the graphics below give some context as to where these lineups are headed. Both are in a relative upswing, though Houston is in a more middle-of-the-road position compared to Seattle. This battle of AL West contenders has been good to both offenses – just a little more fruitful for the home team that has taken the first three of four.
Houston shortstop Jeremy Pena is day-to-day with knee tightness and has yet to fully find his groove in 2026. Regardless, Yordan Alvarez continues to carry this lineup with Jose Altuve and Christian Walker simmering a bit after their hot starts. For Seattle, Brendan Donovan returned to action yesterday after missing a couple games due to illness. He’s a key part of the Mariners’ attack against righties, slashing .348/.500/.826 in this split over 32 plate appearances. Aside from Houston co-closer Bryan Abreu, both bullpens are generally unencumbered if not operating on different levels. Astros relievers ran a 7.88 ERA with 6.23 FIP/5.92 xFIP last week as opposed to Seattle’s 1.62 ERA masking a 4.28 FIP/4.99 xFIP. They danced around quite a few walks in limited action to survive tight spots.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (PIT -217, 7.5)
C Cavalli (R) vs. P Skenes (R)
It’s Paul Skenes Day and the market price on today’s game against the Nationals reflects it. Fresh off of a sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Nats will put their 7-8 record to the test with Cade Cavalli taking the mound at PNC Park. His rough 1.22 K/BB ratio is not reflected in the 2.51 ERA portion of his profile as the ground ball pitcher has befuddled hitters with soft contact. Opponents have put the ball in play and taken 9 walks, though the 27-year-old has yet to cough up more than 2 runs in each of his three starts. Pittsburgh’s lineup has slowed down to the point where Oneil Cruz is doing most of the damage with support from Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds; all of whom have hit right-handers well in 2026.
Skenes has rebounded from a disastrous start to the campaign at Citi Field. The two outings since then each yielded 1 run and a combined 11 strikeouts to 4 walks. He didn’t get off to an absolutely dominant start in 2025’s first three games either. But we go back to projections and the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is a sub-3.00 guy as compared to Cavalli in the low 4.00s. Although our numbers make this line close to 2/1, there’s no margin on face value for us to get involved.
Does Volatility Favor the Underdog?
Neither bullpen was especially good last week, though Nationals relievers’ 5.67 ERA, 7.14 FIP/5.22 xFIP overshadows their 3 wins and 2 saves. The latter is a testament to James Wood and CJ Abrams doing major damage. These left-handed hitters are the keys to taking down Paul Skenes and the Pirates’ bullpen. That’s a fairly obvious statement if you’ve been paying attention. Wood slashed .545/.655/1.091 last week with 3 home runs and 8 RBI, numbers that should be good enough for NL Player of the Week honors. Plenty of volatility is presented by these bullpens and a pair of lineups with a couple of hitters carrying the lion’s share of production lately. This should be a good one to watch, especially in the closing innings.
MIAMI MARLINS @ ATLANTA BRAVES (ATL -150, 8.5)
E Perez (R) vs. G Holmes (R)
Atlanta is catching interest this morning after throttling the Guardians in primetime last night, extending their NL East lead by 2 games over Miami. Will the Marlins’ road woes continue after a sweep in Detroit? They have an uphill climb, especially given how the Braves’ bats have been on fire (as exaggerated in the offense plots below). It’s not just the Drake Baldwin show like in the first week of 2026. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Dominic Smith, and Mauricio Dubon have all found their midseason form between the Angels and Guardians series. This recent push propelled their splits versus right-handed pitching into the top five at 126 wRC+. That’s right above Miami’s 124 wRC+ against righties despite last week’s considerable cool down.
Grant Holmes’ 2.55 ERA doesn’t reflect some of the jams he’s gotten himself into. His 1.75 K/BB ratio and 32.7% ground ball rate lag expectation. The whiffs are generally still there but the strikeouts aren’t (19.7%). Is now the time for slumping Marlins hitters Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, and Owen Caissie to find that scorching hot form at the season start? Their starter Eury Perez stomached a tough outing against the Yankees to post a 5.06 ERA and 6.20 FIP/4.67 xFIP. Yet we still give the 22-year-old a slight edge based on his elite arsenal headlined by a high-octane fastball and wicked changeup. Aside from the Yankees start, he’s walked just 3 but gave up 11 hits against Colorado and Cincinnati. It’s hard to know what to expect on a start-by-start basis much like last year.
Does the Market Have This Nailed?
Both bullpens are in good shape in terms of production and availability, so no major adjustments there. A money line price of -140 or lower makes sense to back the Braves. Will we see that number pop on the board? Reducing exposure and/or increasing returns through a -1 or -1.5 run line is an aggressive way to play this based on how much of an advantage the Atlanta lineup may hold at the moment. But that ship may have sailed depending on your price sensitivity.
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for our daily baseball handicapping and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL!
