Was this year’s Bristol spring race better than last year’s? The Gluck poll says meh but there was enough action throughout the field to keep my interest with an extended slate of matchup bets. Unfortunately, the two losses in last week’s article represented the whole a little too well. New week, new challenge as NASCAR heads to the midwest for the 2026 AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway. If action is what us fans want, Kansas is as close to a lock for providing it.
- Track type: high-speed intermediate
- Track length: 1.5 miles
- Laps/total miles: 267/400
- Stage lengths (laps): 80/85/102
Handicapping the AdventHealth 400
Falling back on the ifantasyrace.com Similar Track Guide to pull together our body of work, Kansas Speedway is a pure NASCAR track most similar to Las Vegas. Michigan joins other 1.5-mile intermediates Charlotte and Texas as secondary comps to work with. Recent winners at Kansas include Chase Elliott in last year’s playoff race and Kyle Larson, winner of the last two spring races. Since Las Vegas is a key comparable, I certainly cannot pass on mentioning that Denny Hamlin won the last couple races there. Plus the #11 team has been consistently fast this season. Larson and Hamlin have combined for eleven top 5 finishes in the eight races here going back to the 2022 season. They’ve also accounted for five top-rated performances in this era.
Aside from the dominant teams of Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell is situated right in the thick of things this weekend. Last spring’s bridesmaid looks for his first Cup Series win at Kansas after five straight top ten finishes here. The toughest pill to swallow for the #20 team is starting from the pole in four of the eight Gen-7 races. Plus Bell delivered three straight runner-up race ratings on this mile-and-a-half. It’s only a matter of time and the books know it. He’s somewhere in the top three of the odds board depending on book.
Movin’ On Up
Well, I’ve done a superb job at burying the lead of Ty Gibbs’ first career victory last week at Bristol. The kid arguably deserves higher ratings coming into this race with current season form comparable to Ryan Blaney, if not better. A minor influence from 2025 persists in our ratings, though this will continue to be overshadowed if Gibbs keeps the heater alive. It is truly tough to find a hotter team in NASCAR. Six straight P6 or better finishes after leaving the drafting tracks goes toe-to-toe with a suspect Kansas profile. We’ve seen flashes from him here and the #54 team is operating at a high level in many aspects. The Joe Gibbs Racing stables are in a groove right now.
Gibbs’ JGR teammate Chase Briscoe also gets a strong boost from current form to offset an interesting Kansas track record. The results of moving from the defunct SHR organization was arguably most apparent here with a pair of P4 finishes last season. Plus he logged a P4 in the Las Vegas playoff race and P6 this spring – an important consideration from a primary comp track.
Don’t Be Fooled
On the flip side are guys like Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman who have had various degrees of success here but are not performing well this season. Bowman’s issue is due to missed time (to a degree) while the #1 team hasn’t cracked the top 15 since Atlanta. I think the smart move with the #48 squad is a wait-and-see approach until AB finds his footing. A favorable track like this weekend is a preliminary litmus test. Chastain’s claim to fame at Kansas is a one-off victory in the 2024 playoffs and early success in the Gen-7 era. But the speed has not really been there on this track type going back to 2025 either. Plus there’s an odd tone at Trackhouse Racing with their struggles and Daniel Suarez capitalizing on a fresh start at Spire Motorsports.
Is it fair to put Ryan Blaney in this category? He’s been one of the fastest here, just not consistently and without the finishes to match the effort. Top 5 results in two of the last three here may be a smokescreen for limited positive outcomes at Kansas and especially Las Vegas. A price shorter than 10/1 seems awfully diluted for this risk.
Under the Radar?
Chris Buescher underwhelmed the last couple weeks, although the general tone out of the RFK camp is much different than Trackhouse. He’s been good at Kansas the last couple spring races and has popped strong finishes here and there on the high-speed intermediates in recent years. The #17 is a reach in the 20/1 neighborhood but there’s likely an opportunity in some market somewhere.
Chase Elliott quietly sits in the tranche above Buescher and firmly below the dominators. Last fall’s winner came out firing in Vegas this spring with a runner-up in the midst of an up-and-down 2026. His wins seemingly come out of the blue, though the #9 team could have value this weekend in matchups.
Whether or not it’s part of the larger Chevrolet new nose issue, Trackhouse’s struggles may mask another step forward for Shane Van Gisbergen on the ovals. Bristol and Las Vegas ate his lunch, though the road course ringer has three P14 or better finishes this season not including a COTA runner-up. Is 8/1 for a Top 10 good considering the number of strong teams on the intermediates? Or will there be advantageous matchups against nondescript competitors once the extended menu is unveiled at a book like BetUS?
Action On the Track
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